Your Job's Your Credit!!! Week 4 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

Much like the opening two titles to this weekly column (Lightning in a Bottle, I’d Like To Touch Jennifer’s Body, Falling, Falling, Falling) and we’re sticking with the nonsensical title route. In fact, it's not going ANYWHERE anytime soon.



Time for the 10 Questions of the Week...

Is Cedric Benson truly a must-start in fantasy these days. Absolutely!!!
Credit: Suntimes.com

1) Which fantasy star will be missed most on Sunday rosters: Michael Turner or Larry Fitzgerald?
2) Can the Jets survive their trip to the Superdome down two corners (Sheppard and Strickland)?
3) Will Rashard Mendenhall take advantage of his opportunity this weekend in a primetime game?
4) Is LT going to be an injury nightmare each and every weekend?
5) Are Virginia Tech players naturally undisciplined in the NFL? Seriously, check out the names and consider it.
6) Which Redskin back should've been traded MOST a few years back: Portis or Betts?
7) Might the Lions have a different type of streak (winning?) in mind after this weekend?
8) Who's your post-4 Weeks MVP gonna be? Does his name rhyme with Shmoo Schmees?
9) Which Saints wideout will see the most of Darrelle Revis?
10) How many INTs do you have for Derek Anderson this Sunday?

Weekly Picks
Last Week: 5-2 (Carolina played closer than 14 points - a late pick-6 doomed me - and Miami suffered from a Pennington injury on their trip out West. The game was brutal beforehand, although much closer. Still a solid week.)
Season Total: 12-6 (I'm picking tougher games, with fewer cupcakes than most. I'm gonna set a target of 20-10. It's gonna take a rock solid Week 3 to do so.)
Upset Special: 3-1 (The Phins had won 7 in a row in San Diego and were giving 5.5 points. I bit off more than I could've chewed. Colts big @Zona was an easy call, but far too many people made it.)
Survivor Selection: 3-0 (Picking the Ravens to annihilate the Browns wasn't exactly rocket science.)

Let's make these short and sweet...

Guess who is your NFL touchdown leader after Week 3. Yeah, Mr. McGahee.
Credit: CNNSI.com

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
Jack Del Rio sucks and the Jags have the worst "homefield advantage" in the NFL. Look for the Titan D to wake up and stack the box against MJD. Titans roll.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-1 1/2)
The game is in Foxboro. I want to see Joe Flacco drive his team down the field when they're trailing in a key game. Oh wait, he did that in the Divisional Round last year. Too bad Brady has done it a lot more. Pats win, barely.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (-3)
Denver could win this game and become a quasi-legit 4-0 game. Tashard Choice is the best RB in Dallas. Because he gets carries on Sunday afternoon, Dallas wins a close one.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-10)
Same old Lions. Bears roll as Forte FINALLY gets on track. Although memo to fantasy owners, his rookie season may be his statistically best. Exactly how many Bear RBs have staying power in Chicago since Sweetness. Zippie.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (-7 1/2)
They're teasing you to take the Bucs. Don't. Who the hell is Josh Johnson anyways? At least we don't have to hear teases about a 3-1 Skins team (which would be a complete fraud).

Upset Special #1
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7 1/2)
Not sure about LT, Polamalu, or why this spread is so big. What I do know is Phillip Rivers isn't intimidated by anyone. I like the Stillers, but not at this number to cover.

Upset Special #2
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-4)
A-Rod typically doesn't win games like this, on the home or on the road. Ironically, it could be Ryan Longwell who walks away with the game-winning points (another former Packer). Notice who's name I'm not mentioning? This number won't be covered, one way or another.

…Survivor Selection… [Gone: New England, Minnesota, and Baltimore]
NY Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
You can't pick on the Browns and Rams every week. Plus, both have divisional matchups. Give me the Giants, who reved up Jacobs quite a bit last week. Things are gonna continue to stink for Todd Haley and company.

Fantasy Studs and Duds
[Note: Scoring this week was a tricky as it has been in recent memory. Let me explain.]

...Last Week...[4-3-1, 15-11-1 on the year. Iffy iffy]

Boo Ya: Santana Moss was LARGE, Brett Favre was retro-Favrian in a GOOD way, while Watson and Maroney STUNK up the joint.

What the ???: Matt Cassell completed only 9 passes, but two were for TDs. Len Dale White barely got any touches, but in TD-heavy leagues...he did score one.

Meh: Manningham had less than 60 yards, Shockey didn't eclipse 75 but was over 50 as a tight end, and Berrian caught a season-high but was nowhere near 100 yards or a touchdown. White didn't have 10 touches not 30 yards though, so his TD was neutralized in points per touch leagues quite a bit. Tricky tricky to interpret. Gonna call it 1-1-1.

...as for this week...

A big "holla" to all Santana Moss owners this weekend. Expect a back-to-back BLOWUP!!!
Credit: SocialButt-r-fly.com

STUDS
1) Earl Bennett will catch one of Jay Cutler's 3 TDs this weekend. A Chicago Bear QB is gonna toss 30+ TDs this season. His name is Jay Cutler.
2) Heath Miller will choose this weekend to catch one of his 3 TDs on the season. If you're in a pinch, waiver-wire the Steeler tight end.
3) Eddie Royal is breaking out of his funk this week with 75+-yards and a TD. Bank on it.
4) The Titans D is out there in a ton of leagues. The Jags will make them look good, with at least 1 pick-6 this weekend.

DUDS
1) Don't expect much from Cadillac Williams or Derrick Ward this weekend. Not much at all.
2) Lee Evans is going to end up being the biggest loser in the soon-to-be TO melodrama in Buffalo.
3) Glen Coffee isn't going to be the fantasy-beast you expect this weekend.
4) Zach Miller isn't the only Oakland starter you should have in your fantasy lineup. No Raider should earn that honor.

Parting Thought of the Week

Credit: CNNSI.com

A two time winner of the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award, Chad Pennington's career should be appreciated...even if it may be over. The guy has been discarded a few too many times (especially by the team I love) and he's responded with class, dignity, and more than a few wins. A few of my fondest memories...
A) Leading the Jets to a 41-0 dismantling of Peyton Manning and the Colts on Wild Card Weekend.
B) Following a preseason injury, he cheered on his team and worked the playcalling on the sideline (unlike Michael Vick, who was wheeled around in a wheelchair by his team owner).
C) Flexing his gun, with a torn rotater cuff, after a deep TD pass during a road win against San Diego on Wild Card weekend.

Chad...hope to see you back under center next year.

Week 2 Sunday NFL Action: Running Commentary...

Tweet tweet. InClement Speak on Rhodes' comments, too.
Check out how the predictions, NFL and fantasy, are progressing as well.

A few thoughts on the Sunday kickoffs in the NFL...

Meet the best player in the NFL whose name you likely don't know.
Read that carefully, so you realize what I'm saying.
Credit: ESPN.go.com

Washington outlasted St. Louis 9-7.
You take wins in the NFL, regardless of the opponent and the score. However, you have to analyze - if only a little - what is wrong with the Redskins. Their diehard fans might be divided 50/50, but it's Jason Campbell. It has a lot to do with the offense, his coaching, his wideouts, and his offensive line. Nevertheless, Campbell isn't the pocket passers and decision-maker necessary to take this team to the heights it anticipates yearly. I've seen plenty of evidence and doubt it's changing, while Campbell's in DC at least.

Atlanta held off Carolina 28-20.
God bless Sunday Ticket. After the euphoria of the Jet victory starts to wear off, I notice this is an 8-point game with 30 ticks to go...and tune in. I don't want to hear about Delhomme not throwing INTs and keeping his team in the game. The Panthers should NOT be 0-2, despite a brutal pair of opening games. Matt Ryan, blossoming more and more into "Matty Ice", tore up the fantasy sheets (is that a saying?) with a 3-TD performance (including targeteting big-time performers Gonzo and White). Homefield advantage in the NFC South remains crucial. Whomever can win 2 games on the road, in-division, will win the NFC South this season.

New York blitzed and blitzed and beat the Patriots 16-9.
Did you ever think the story of this game would be the fans? Rex Ryan left a friendly voicemail for season ticket holders, encouraging them to go bonkers all game long. They complied. Let me make a few observations, please.
1) Don't underestimate OR overestimate Welker's absence. It's too simple a cop-out, one the Patriots won't make.
2) Mark Sanchez isn't leading this team to the Super Bowl; however, he looks more like a franchise QB than any true Jet fan could've anticipated and/or hoped.
3) You can put pressure on a QB all game long and still NOT sack him. But you can also hold him without a TD pass and under 50 yards in the 2nd half passing.
4) Tennessee comes into New York next weekend. Beware of Chris Johnson. BEWARE!!!
5) Rodney Harrison? How does Kerry Rhodes' a** taste?
6) Buffalo lost due to poor coaching, poor execution, and poor defensive strategy...the Jets didn't.
7) Darrelle Revis is the best cornerback in the NFL. Period. PERIOD!

Percy Harvin is being used brilliantly by the Viking offense.
Crap, I just called Brad Childress "brilliant".
Credit: ESPN.go.com

Minnesota downed Detroit 27-10.
You had to wonder if the Lions might have something special for their home opener. Truth be told, they did! At least until the second half and Adrian Peterson took over. Favre was extremely efficient (23-27, 155 yds, TD) and is showing evidence that he may be ready to feed off of what AD (All-Day) forces the defense into giving up to the passing game. It will be a long year for Stafford and I'm honestly rooting for he, CJ, and Kevin Smith to get a W sooner than later. Might be very later, though.

Cincinnati (!?!?!) went into Lambeau and defeated the Packers 31-24.
Imagine, the Bengals could be 2-0 if not for a bad-luck deflection last week by Leon Hall. Let's go to the 5 points, so I can more efficiently rant and rave.
1) The Packers are extremely overrated. Anyone who felt they played well against Chicago last weekend is nuts.
2) A Rod is talented QB, but lost a ton of these games last year. When does more of the blame land on him, exactly?
4) I told a good friend to sit Palmer (for Favre, not the end of the world). Whoops. Might Chris Henry be slowly becoming a legitimate threat to play and perform every weekend (even if only 1 catch, it was for a TD)?
5) Charles Woodson was involved in waaaaay too many big plays, for better or worse. Guy's still a beast, though.

Oakland outlasted Kansas City 13-10.
Unless you had a family member in the game or a major fantasy revelation, who the h*ll cares? I'm seriously not commenting any further. These teams suck. Badly.

That's Mike Bell, not Reggis Bush or Pierre Thomas, who has revitilized the Saints' rushing attack. Boy was I wrong about him.
Credit: ESPN.go.com

New Orleans stomped Philadelphia 48-22.
You know what's stupid? Playing Drew Brees when you're up 41-20 in the 4th quarter. In fact, it's idiotic beyond belief. As for his performance, Brees is the MVP after 2 weeks (whatever that means). Kolb showed promise in the 1st half, but he wear and tear of the Saints offense on the Iggle D (there was a BRUTAL penalty call on a key drive admitedly) was just too much. Pierre Thomas might not get the starting job back from Mike Bell. Seriously. Don't read too much into the Eagles sans-McNabb. Do read into the lingering affects of that injury and potentially rushing back from it.

Houston "stunned" Tennessee 34-31.
Memo to the Titans: After 10 days off, don't blow 21-7 leads AT HOME. This game will make Jet fans do a double-take for countless reasons. Andre Johnson sure liked getting free from Darrelle Revis, didn't he? The Titans "D" looked putrid - after 10 days off - and both these teams were polar opposites from Week 1. As for the Texans, the rush defense MUST be shored up; however, this is the type of road win that Kubiak needs to deliver for a playoff push. I hope Indianapolis was watching the game closely, all three teams should contend for the AFC South title this season.

Yeah, Jack Del Rio still S-U-C-K-S. Crappy jacket, tool.
Credit: BostonHerald.com

Arizona Jack Del Rio'd the Jaguars 31-17.
Did I mention how much I loathe Del Rio, his wardrobe, and the future for this never-proud franchise? Time to kick them while they're down! The Cardinals simplified the gameplan, kept Kurt Warner upright, and fed off of a HUGE special teams TD to keep the Jaguars at bay. Garrard tossed two worthless TDs and MJD let down fantasy owners quite a bit. Meanwhile, Steve Beaston's return can't be overlooked for the Cardinal offense. Ditto for Fitz, who despite a TD catch, surprised more than a few with only 4 catches for 34 yards (meet Rasheen Mathis). In case you didn't see the box score, Warner was 24-26 and didn't turn over the ball. What does that equal? EPIC!

As for the late slate of games...

Chicago upset Pittsburgh 17-14.
1) This is why Bears fans should be happy Jay Cutler is their franchise QB.
2) Matt Forte is starting slow. I don't think he'll have any issues speeding back up, but I do wonder if last season was a bit overrated?
3) Pittsburgh had plenty of chances to put this away...and didn't.
4) Jeff Reed makes those kicks in Pittsburgh.

Patrick Willis is a bad, bad man. Was that a late, dirty hit though?
Credit: ESPN.go.com

San Francisco moved to 2-0 with a 23-10 victory over Seattle.
1) Whatever Mike Singletary is doing in San Francisco, is working.
2) Frank Gore would be runner-up to Drew Brees for 2-Week MVP.
3) Patrick Willis may be the best linebacker in the NFC. Seriously.
4) Hasselbeck may never stay healthy again. The guy had no reason to take that type of a hit when he did.

Baltimore held off San Diego 31-26.
1) Sproles getting STUFFED by Lewis was the individual play of the day on defense.
2) The Chargers always start this way and it will cost them down the stretch with road playoff games.
3) Baltimore appears balanced; especially in the backfield. That trio is lethal.
4) The Ravens are currently the team to beat in the AFC, even with Flacco at QB.

Denver, yes the Broncos, moved to 2-0 with an easy 27-6 victory over Cleveland.
1) Josh McDaniels has done his job: win two winable games.
2) Denver will be 3-0. Mark it down.
3) Cleveland is a disaster. Mangini may go 3-13 and lose his job after one season.
4) How long until Derek Anderson gets snaps at QB?

Yeah, he got his TD. His team one, too.

He dropped this pass, by the way.
Credit: ESPN.go.com

Buffalo didn't choke this weekend, defeating Tampa Bay 33-20.
1) Fred Jackson nearly blew this game at the end of the 1st half. Ball security!!!
2) Trent Edwards took some BRUTAL hits. Might want to protect yourself a little better, Stanford man.
3) Byron Leftwich isn't a quality starting quarterback in the NFL. In fact, he never has been.
4) Sabby Piscitelli is the best name in the NFL...bar none.


Enjoy the primetime matchups. Fantasy galore for many many of us.
Any chance Kevin Boss wants to outscore Jason Witten? Any at all???

Andre Johnson sure can catch...right Courtland Finnegan?

Lightning in a Bottle: Week 1 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

No need to explain the title, because it doesn't make any sense.

Nevertheless, here is your quick-fix for what to do and what not to do, betting and fantasy-wise (of course), this upcoming NFL Kickoff Weekend.

"Are you excited for opening weekend?"
The dumbest question since, "Have you seen The Hangover?"
Come on people.
Credit: Filmstage.com

Before I begin with the picks and prognostications, let's go over the 10 Questions (I have) for the weekend at hand.

Bonus question: How does Jack Del Rio still have his job? Seriously?
Look at that jacket...
Credit: SunTimes.com

1) Could anyone care less about the Black Eyed Pea and Tim McGraw "opening" for the Tennessee/Pittsburgh game? I didn't think so.
2) Tony Romo and Roy Williams have GIGANTIC media targets on their backs. How do they handle them against a (seemingly) weakly Tampa Bay squad.
3) Can it get worse for fans in Motown and their (beloved?) Lions?
4) Are a few too many analysts drinking the Kool-Aid about the playoff hopes for the Houston Texans?
5) If you could re-do your fantasy draft, which pick would you switch first?
6) Is that Washington Redskin offensive line ready for the mammoth challenge that the Giants have in store for them?
7) Which (now) absent coordinator-turned-head coach will be most severely missed by his team: Haley, Spags, Rex Ryan, or the field?
8) Is Seattle the safest pick for a team drafting in the top ten to return to playoff-related relevance?
9) What is playoff-related relevance, Clement?
10) Is Tom Brady going to seemlessly guide the Patriots back to the Super Bowl, past the likes of Big Ben/Rivers/Peyton/etc?

As for the picks...here we go. 5 games only this week. Sorry for the short stack.

Don't worry, I'm not a chicken. I pick the tough ones! Cocka cocka cocka caw!
Best show EVER. Not even close either. Seriously. SERIOUSLY!!!!
Credit: ClemsLansing.com

Season Total: 0-0 (Hey, it might be one of my better marks this campaign.)
Upset Special: 0-0 (Last year was NOT a positive showing.)
Survivor Selection: 0-0 (Well lookey lookey...something new.)

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6 1/2)

I don't make it a habit of picking against defending Super Bowl champs at home in Week 1. However, that lingering 1/2 is just teasing me. Vegas knows something many others don't. Kerry Collins is 37 and the Titans have been miserable in recent years without Alby in the middle. I expect the Titans to be a playoff contender, but not guilty of knocking of the Stillers in the Ketchup Bottle. Polamalu can clinch it for me with a late Pick-6.

Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons (-4 1/2)
Unlike most "experts", I don't mind picking road dogs. However, this is just a taste of what the Dolphins can expect this season: a BRUTAL schedule. While I like Ronnie Brown being as healthy as possible, I'll take Ryan/Turner/White and the newly acquired Gonzalez to cover the 4 1/2. Big question is: can John Abraham give former teammate Chad Pennington nightmares. Me thinks so.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (+1)
Is this my road dog upset? Nope. The Eagles are slight favorites not only over the Panthers but perhaps in the NFC. While we know Carolina is going to run five times more than it'll pass, I'm wondering how committed Andy Reid is towards his shaky-ankled RB (Westbrook) and his (could he be a phenom) rookie RB (McCoy)? I'll give the edge to the Iggles based on my preference of F. McNabb over Delhomme.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-6 1/2)
The 49ers are a sleeper pick to snag a wild card and to perhaps move to the top of the AFC West. Not so fast. Arizona isn't returning to the Super Bowl; however, the offense is extremely talented and as long as Warner is upright, I like his chances against the NFC West. I'd feel better if it was under 6, but I also don't like betting against Larry Fitzgerald. Frank Gore might run wild, but the Cardinals will control this game due to the QB matchup: Warner versus Shaun Hill.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-10 1/2)
Terrell Owens' first game against New England ends with a dynamic drive down the field by Trent Edwards with a game winning pass to...Lee Evans. Sorry, Buffalo newspapers can only dream of such a title. The Patsies own the Bills more convincingly than any sporting analogy I can think of. The Monday Night Football doubleheader STINKS (why always Oakland exactly?) and this game will be an absolute laugher. Get ready for an angry TO early and often. At least Andrea Kramer won't be able to make googily eyes at Tom Brady. [This is also YOUR Survivor League best pick. Don't overthink these leagues and "save" your top teams. Pick the safest bet each week, for as long as you last.]

Fantasy Studs and Duds
Note: I'm not going to be an ESPN-ite and tell you to start guys high on your draft board like Anquan Boldin or Thomas Jones in a flex-spot. That's idiotic. Here are five guys to avoid and five to embrace.

...5 Studs...
1) Bernard Berrian is going to catch a long TD from Favre in Week 1. He might not catch another one, but you can bank on at least one this weekend for the Vikings' speediest receiver.
2) Dustin Keller is going to see a lot of targets from Mark Sanchez. I won't guarantee a touchdown; however, if you neglected the position or hate your matchup...you could do much much worse than Keller.
3) There's no guarantee Reggie Bush is your #2 running back. If he is your #3, unless you're stacked at the position...start him. I see 50+ rushing yards, 75+ receiving, and a touchdown from Bush.
4) The New York Jet Defense earned a lot more fantasy points last season than you expected. Enter Rex Ryan, Bart Scott, Lito Sheppard, and plenty of hype. Exit, via suspension, Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace. Combine that with a STACKED fantasy offense, playing at home, in Houston...(deep breath) don't start the Jet D in Week 1.
5) Nate Washington is the next dud who will be exposed in Tennessee as a free agent B-U-S-T. Good luck to those who sorely overrated this #1-receiver (it's Justin Gage by the way).

...5 Duds...
1) I'm not buying the recent Internet-fueled hype for Mike Bell. No way, no how.
2) Every year Heath Miller has 3 good games and 13 duds. Don't try it this week. He may catch a TD even, but only for 7 yards (on his only catch). Don't do it...
3) LenDale White isn't going to see the endzone. Chris Johnson may, but "Tequilla" won't. Look for the Titans to throw in the redzone when the Stillers clamp down. Good luck, Kerry Collins.
4) Don't put any money on Patrick Crayton being the possession receiver in Dallas. When the ball isn't being thrown to Witten and Roy Williams, it's being carried by Marion Barber III, Felix Jones, and (maybe even) Tashard Choice.
5) Joey Galloway is nowhere near worthy of a roster spot until two weeks of consistent performance. He's not as healthy as some people want to believe, nor will the targets be often enough in that offense (for now).

Parting Thought

I guarantee you don't realize how FAST Chris Johnson truly is.
Credit: UnlockedSports.com

See you in the funny pages...