NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 9.0
SELECTION SUNDAY SPECIAL

The field is set. More to come after the brackets are released.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The automatic bids are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box or e-mail me at phashemi@gmail.com.

Last Four In: Indiana, Drexel, Arkansas, Stanford
Last Four Out: Missouri St., Florida St., Purdue, Kansas St.
Next Four Out: Illinois, Air Force, Utah St., Appalachian St.

Seedings
1: Ohio State, Florida, UNC, Kansas
2: UCLA, Wisconsin, Georgetown, Memphis
3: Oregon, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Southern Illinois
4: Washington St., Maryland, UNLV, Texas
5: Louisville, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Nevada
6: Virginia Tech, USC, Marquette, BYU
7: Arizona, Creighton, Duke, Villanova
8: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Boston College
9: Winthrop, Michigan St., Georgia Tech, Butler
10: Old Dominion, Texas Tech, Xavier, Syracuse
11: VCU, Indiana, Gonzaga, Drexel
12: Arkansas, Davidson, Stanford, New Mexico St.
13: George Washington, Holy Cross, Wright St., Miami-Ohio
14: Oral Roberts, Albany, Pennsylvania, Long Beach St.
15: Texas A&M – Corpus Christi, Belmont, Eastern Kentucky, Niagara
16: North Texas, Weber St., Central Connecticut St., Florida A&M (Play-in), Jackson St. (Play-in)

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 5
Big Ten: 4
Big 12: 4
Colonial: 3
A-10: 2
Horizon: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
Mountain West: 2
WAC: 2

Midwest v. South; East v. West (note: tournament grid is subject to a number of seed changes due to various conflicts)

Seed	East	South	Midwest	West
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	Kansas
2	Wisconsin	Georgetown	Memphis	UCLA
3	Texas A&M	Oregon	Pittsburgh	Southern Illinois
4	Washington St.	Texas	Maryland	UNLV
5	Louisville	Nevada	Tennessee	Notre Dame
6	BYU	Virginia Tech	USC	Marquette
7	Arizona	Creighton	Duke	Vanderbilt
8	Michigan St.	Villanova	Winthrop	Kentucky
9	Butler	Virginia	Old Dominion	Boston College
10	Georgia Tech	VCU	Texas Tech	Xavier
11	Syracuse	Indiana	Gonzaga	Drexel
12	Arkansas	Davidson	Stanford	New Mexico St.
13	Holy Cross	George Washington	Wright St.	Miami-Ohio
14	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.	Albany	Pennsylvania
15	Niagara	Belmont	Texas A&M – Corpus Christi	Eastern Kentucky
16	Central Connecticut St.	Jackson St./Florida A&M	North Texas	Weber St.

Committee Tidbit Slip

Gary Walters, chairperson of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, said that one or two teams that may not have been in the field could get into the tournament today. The statement was in response to a question asking if the tournament field was set.

The one is obviously NC State. The "or two" is Arkansas, meaning that they're not viewed as highly as yours truly. At the end of the day, the Razorbacks may not be in my field, but I'm convinced that they have a stronger resume than both Big Ten bubble teams. Nonetheless, the jury is out.

You're Fired

Before we get on with the bracket projections in a few minutes, here are some teams that I am no longer giving consideration:

Akron
Alabama
Appalachian State
Bradley
Clemson
Georgia
Massachusetts
Mississippi State
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
San Diego State
West Virginia

More to come ...

Livin’ on a Prayer

Saturday gave us plenty to talk about.
Bubble teams saw too much go wrong and very little go right.

Memphis marched closer towards a 2-seed by dispatching Houston. Vermont choked away a golden opportunity vs. Albany (horrid coaching). UNC whipped up BC. (Did Dudley intentionally hit Hansbrough?) Oden and OSU took care of Purdue, as expected. Kansas held on vs. pesky Kansas State. Va Tech slipped up AGAIN, this time vs. NC State. The state of Mississippi took a step back off of the bubble with Ole Miss losing to Florida handily and Arkansas outgunning and outrunning Miss State. Oklahoma State’s season ended vs. Kevin Durant and Texas. Illinois became the penultimate big-name bubble team with a bad loss to Wisconsin. GW stamped a ticket from the A-10. Miami (OH) got the luckiest shot of the day to advance to the dance. UNLV had just enough against BYU and is hot entering March Madness. Hang Time alum Reggie Theus led New Mexico St. to the dance out of the WCC. Georgetown pummeled Pitt and an overwhelmed Aaron Gray to capture the Big East title. Florida A&M provided memorable late-second drama, Jackson State is back dancing again, and Long Beach State took home a late-night ticket. Most surprising to me though had to be Oregon annihilating USC from start to finish.

Deep breaths. Quite a day!

Sweating it out most heavily has to be the likes of: Drexel (CAA), ODU (CAA), Stanford (Pac-10), West Virginia (Big East), Air Force (MWC), Alabama (SEC), Appalachian State (SoCon), Kansas State (Big 12), Purdue (Big 10), Oklahoma State (Big 12), Missouri State (MVC) Texas Tech (Big 12), Illinois (Big Ten), Xavier (A-10), and Florida State (ACC). [I know I forgot a team or two…]

Perhaps Arkansas (supported by some and forgotten by others) is the only true bubble-team still playing tomorrow. Sorry Michigan fans…you’ve been TKO’d ever since Friday afternoon. Although you had to know that.

Problem is: Sunday may have even more in store for the true bubble teams. [Arkansas, Stanford, Air Force, Illinois, Drexel, ODU, Purdue, Missouri State, Florida State, and Xavier…in my humble opinion)

Here’s the lineup…

SEC Championship Game: 1:00 pm in Atlanta, Georgia
Florida Gators vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Pick: Gators by double-digits.

ACC Championship Game: 1:00 pm in Tampa, Florida
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Pick: Tar Heels pull away late.

Big Twelve Championship Game: 3:00 pm in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Texas Longhorns
Pick: Durant and co. fall short at the buzzer vs. Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk.

Big Ten Championship Game: 3:30 pm in Chicago, Illinois
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Pick: Oden and Conley Jr. pace the Buckeyes past Tucker in another ugly matchup.

There’s also one minor bid up for grabs, from the 1-bid conference known as the Southland Conference, in which Texas A&M C.C. faces one of last year’s tourney darlings Northwestern State.

So while the committee remains hard at work, much of the country will be tuned into a spectacular quartet of games. Question is, will they be watching them or just hearing updated scores here or there?

Quick Thoughts
-Arkansas isn’t an at-large yet, but you have to believe even a close showing here might be just enough to sneak them in due to “how well they’re playing RIGHT now”.
-Florida is playing for a 1-seed in the South in my opinion. This is no time to waste this opportunity.
-North Carolina could win and still not earn a 1-seed. However, I see them winning AND acquiring one of the four 1-seeds.
-NC State isn’t in…but they’ve beaten Carolina before this season (albeit in Raleigh). Anything can happen with a jacket like Sidney (not Suge Knight) Lowe's in the St. Pete Time's Forum.
-Kansas may be the hottest team in the country, yet still seems incredibly venerable at times to me. It’ll be interesting to see if Durant can stay 100% the entire game.
-Texas will be one of the sexier picks to make a deep run, perhaps even as champs, within numerous brackets. If they win this game, most media pundits will put them in their Final Four.
-Ohio State will secure the overall #1-seed, and continue a massive winning-streak, if they can pull a win here.
-Wisconsin needs a win to become a #1, potentially replacing Ohio State (especially if the committee wants to keep UCLA as the #1 out West and push Wisconsin past the Buckeyes in the Midwest or South). Kammron Taylor must be related to Chris Rock, right?

Drama galore. It should be great.
Obviously EVERYONE on the bubble is rooting for the Tar Heels to dismantle the Wolfpack EARLY and for Arkansas to be toppled by the Gators in easy fashion. Of course, it never seems to happen that way.

Final Thought: If the CAA ends up being a one-bid conference…the entire committee should be fired instantaneously. Bias or not…it’s true to me.

See you at 6pm…

Losing My Mind

The last two days are exactly what the mid-majors who couldn't seal feared. Last night, Xavier and Nevada fell in their respective tournaments, allowing for a second seed that may not have existed. At present, this likely puts Stanford and Florida State on the outs. Teams like Old Dominion, Drexel, and Missouri State all had a legitimate shot at earning an at-large bid; however, things have changed in the last 48 hours.

Thought to be amongst the dead, Oklahoma State rose from the ashes to defeat A&M last night. Make no mistake about it, if the Cowboys make the field without winning the automatic bid in the Big XII conference, it will be a travesty. You cannot go 2-8 from February 1st onward and then rediscover form for 3 days only to lose on Sunday to Kansas (even if it's a "good loss"). That's still 5-9 and that's not good enough when you have stronger at-large candidates.

Speaking of the "good loss", I hate that concept during Championship Week. Victories during conference tournaments are already overblown (i.e. overvalued by the committee) as is, so we don't need to pat Kansas State on the rear for losing by six to Kansas on a neutral court. Kansas State will receive heavy consideration, but I feel their resume is not strong enough to garner an at-large bid.

Before I go further, let me extend my congratulatory statement to Arkansas and Stan Heath's short-term job security. They were my last team in the field prior to the SEC tournament and after three more wins, they will be the fifth representative from the SEC.

Meanwhile, in the Big Ten, this is where I'm losing my mind. Indiana's resume looks weaker by the second. The Illini's doesn't look horrible, but 6 of their 11 conference wins are against the bottom three Big Ten squads. They're like the girl who'd receive the "good from far, far from good" label -- but that change with a victory against Wisconsin today. As for the Spartans, they are 3-10 in neutral court and road games, yet they have the 9th-rated SOS nationally and a recent signature win against Wisconsin on their home floor. With respect to Purdue, they are another team who may receive extended consideration due to their grit during two close defeats to Ohio State - it's not something I agree with, but it's something that will happen. Count on it.

But like I said, a lot has changed in the last 48 hours, and as a result, I'm losing my mind. The pieces will continue to fall in place and the story will unfold - just not at the speed that we want it to do so.

Quick Hits: The Weekend Version

Busy, busy, busy times. Here are ten random ramblings that only scratch the surface on a busy sport’s week.

…in no particular order…
1. Calling the Diesel.
Shaq is back…for now. Averaging 22.5 ppg since D-Wade’s injury, the big fella has seemed more energetic, much more physical, and incredibly motivated to carry the Heat. Question is: can he really keep this up? Yes and no. While the injury bug can’t bite him as hard when he’s this focused and working so hard, the Heat’s best hope, sans-Wade, is to actually meet the Pistons in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Yes, you read that correctly. Only by knocking them out early could they sustain enough momentum to ride the big fellow deeper into the playoffs.

2. Carmelo v. Coach.
Don’t let management fool you, George Karl can only win this argument for so long. Karl might be making a huge mistake calling out his star when the majority of the blame is due to a poorly constructed team (thanks Kiki). It’s one thing to address the consistently bad shots of a shooter, but another to pretend his lack of defense is the only major reason for an underachieving squad.

3. Mavs drive for 70.
From 0-4 to 51-9, Big D has become a team about D. Yes, Dirk flops a lot. But he is also the MVP this season (barely, over Nash) and Josh Howard is the closest thing to Scottie Pippen-in-the-mid-90s we’re gonna see these days (sorry Lamar). While I seriously doubt they can hit 70 (which entails, despite a current 16-game streak, winning 19 of 22 to close out the season in which they may clinch #1 in 2-3 weeks), Avery Johnson has his team as ready as they possibly could be to take home the NBA Title finally.

4. Running Backs on the Move.
Thomas Jones is now a Jet. Willis McGahee a Raven. Jamal Lewis a Brown. Dominic Rhodes a Raider. Reuben Droughns a Giant. Travis Henry a Bronco. Ahman Green a Texan. Tatum Bell a Lion. All of these moves should aid their respective new teams. However, the Jets and Ravens clearly made the top moves in this grouping…by quite a margin, in fact, for what they had to pay.

5. Big Money for the Big Boys.
Wanna see overspending at its best? Escape a place like Express or Abercrombie and venture over to the NFL. Only there could Leonard Davis get $50 million. Seriously. Derrick Dockery is worth $49 million? Not a chance. Eric Steinbach worth $49.5 million? Maybe $29.5, at best. I just hope guys like Wade Smith, Luke Petitgout, and Anthony Clement won’t see $10-million plus in guarantees anytime soon. Hutchinson’s contract last year with the Vikes broke the bank to say the very least.

6. Bubble’s bursting.
As of Saturday…VCU held suit in the CAA. Winthrop did as well in the Big South. Butler did not in the Horizon. Neither did Xavier in the A-10 or Nevada in the WAC. The Zags took home the WCC title to escape the bubble. Creighton more then solidified its standing from the MVC. And we still have plenty of tournaments to go. Big eyes focused on NC State, Illinois, Kansas State, Arkansas, and Mississippi State (among others) in the next two days.

7. One Seeds.
Let’s be foolish and assume a few things: Ohio State matches up with Wisconsin in the Big Ten final. Kansas wins the Big XII title. UCLA is done in the Pac-10 tourney (okay, we do know that). Florida wins the SEC. UNC wins the ACC. Wow. How do you choose those four #1s now? Here’s how: East-UNC, South-Florida, Midwest-Ohio State, West-Kansas. This is assuming Ohio State defeats Wisconsin again, moving the Badgers to the East regional as a #2. If the Badgers win, can you flip-flop Ohio State to a 2 or do you push out someone? Don’t get me started on a new scenario please. UCLA fans are already starting their hate-mail against me...

8. Last Four In, Last Four Out.
Heartbreaking words for a lot of teams this year. My major prediction of predictions? Everyone is sleeping on the one big-name school who will get in as a joke (much like Air Force last year, which was much more conference-affiliated than big name). The CAA will see either Drexel OR Old Dominion sadly be sent to the NIT. It's a cold, hard truth I'm staring to realize. Probably due to a school like Stanford, Illinois, or Arkansas. That's just wrong.

9. Simon says Suspension.
Once a year or so, some hockey player does something downright horrific and senseless. It’s talked about for a few days, shunned by everyone involved, the player acts remorseful, and ghastly reviewed highlights are shown over and over and over. Finally, a big suspension is handed out. Problem solved? Not a chance. It happens again a year later. My advice? Suspend Simon for two seasons without pay. And if he ever commits a similar offense, under ANY circumstances, enforce a lifetime ban and blackout his name from every history book the NHL has to offer. It’s time for zero tolerance in hockey. And more italics.

10. Dice-K’s Arrival.
Looks promising thus far. But just like any of the Cubans that the Yankees sign (surprising the BoSox spent more this off-season than the Evil Empire, or is it?)…wait until a primetime outing against a fierce lineup (such as against New York, Detroit, Anaheim, or Chicago) before we immortalize him Cy Young: Part Deux. Also wait until the pitching motion catches up with hitters, ala Hideo Nomo and Jose Contreras over the next two or three seasons.

Sounds like a good rant to me…except for this.

Fox Sports Radio is the worst thing going today.
I'll take the 4-Letter Network any day for my sports radio.

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.1

(Editor’s Note: In the final bracket, I’ll have 1 v 4 and 2 v 3 (overall seed). These projections are based on results ending on Thursday night.)

At the moment, we have to keep UCLA as a #1 seed. This is not necessarily a projection site. This means that since Florida, North Carolina, Kansas, and Wisconsin have yet to step on the floor for their conference tournament games, they have yet to produce a result; therefore, UCLA is where they are. They’ll likely be on the 1-line but either 3^rd or 4^th overall and playing out west. I’m not in love with how they’re playing.

Thursday was a crazy day. West Virginia and Alabama have a 3-letter future, while Air Force did all in its power to have a similar fate. After a stellar week defeating two of the ACC’s top four on its home floor, Georgia Tech lost a wild one in double overtime to Wake Forest. In fact, Harvey Hale is still hitting 3s as we speak. What kills Georgia Tech and may doom them come Selection Sunday is their 3-10 road/neutral record. Their 8 wins against the RPI top 50 (8-8; tied for 4^th in D-1 for wins) keeps them in for now.

I really hated Maryland’s defeat to Miami and hated it even more that I can only drop them one line seed for now, because everyone else near them also lost games they were not supposed to lose.

Another question that arises as I was seeding the bubble teams: Is the committee aware that Missouri State would have defeated St. Louis, if not for a blown official’s call as time expired? My guess is yes, and that puts over the hump. There’s still a ton of basketball, and it’s my guess that at least one non-tournament team will steal a bid before Selection Sunday.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box or e-mail me at phashemi@gmail.com.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (1)	West (2)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Southern Illinois	Memphis
4	Washington St.	Virginia Tech	Vanderbilt	Maryland
5	Tennessee	Nevada	Marquette	UNLV
6	Kentucky	Louisville	Virginia	Texas
7	Arizona	BYU	Villanova	Duke
8	Notre Dame	Texas Tech	Creighton	Indiana
9	Michigan St.	Boston College	USC	Xavier
10	Georgia Tech	Winthrop	Old Dominion	Virginia Commonwealth
11	Missouri St.	Gonzaga	Davidson	Butler
12	Akron	Syracuse	Florida St.	Arkansas
13	Drexel	Stanford	Wright St.	Holy Cross
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Texas A&M - CC	Niagara	Belmont	Delaware St.
16	Eastern Kentucky	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Eastern Kentucky	Weber St.

In: Florida St., Wright St., Niagara
Out: Air Force, Purdue, Siena

Seedings
1s: Ohio St., UCLA, Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Georgetown, Texas A&M
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Oregon
4s: Washington St., Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Maryland
5s: Marquette Tennessee, UNLV, Nevada
6s: Texas, Virginia, Kentucky, Louisville
7s: BYU, Arizona, Duke, Villanova
8s: Notre Dame, Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech
9s: Michigan St., Xavier, USC, Boston College
10s: Winthrop, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, Virginia Commonwealth
11s: Syracuse, Butler, Gonzaga, Davidson (Due to a seeding conflict, Syracuse and Missouri St. will swap seeds on the bracket)
12s: Missouri St., Florida St., Akron, Arkansas
13s: Drexel, Stanford, Holy Cross, Wright St.
14s: Vermont, Oral Roberts, Penn, Long Beach St.
15s: Texas A&M-CC, Belmont, Niagara, Delaware St.
16s: Eastern Kentucky, North Texas, Weber St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Florida St., Arkansas, Drexel, Stanford
Last Four Out: Air Force, Purdue, Georgia, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Kansas St., Mississippi St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 8
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 5
Big Ten: 4
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Colonial: 3
Mountain West: 2
Horizon: 2

Questions To Ponder

Thursday is the busiest day of the spectacle that is Championship Week. The day is all about answering questions in the major conferences. If teams are unable to do so today, then they are often the ones sweating it out on Selection Sunday and usually on the short end of the stick. With that said, here are some questions I've thought of that may or may not be answered today. Feel free to add to them.

* How will Mike Nardi's injury that prevents him from his normal contributions affect the Villanova resume?
* How much can Florida St. blame their 1-4 slump on Toney Douglas being out of the lineup?
* Did Air Force do enough in the first three months of the season to overcome the last month and a half? And what if they lose later today to Wyoming?
* Where are you, Ronald Steele? One answer. The NIT, if you're lucky.
* If Texas Tech loses to Colorado, do they return to the other side of the bubble despite 3 signature wins? What about Michigan State?
* Which team, if any, will emerge from the SEC bubble?

A Six-Pack of Conference Tournament Banter

The final weekend of the regular season means one thing: post-season tournaments. Huh? You heard it right the first time. The big-daddy conferences are settling the score after a year of mostly memorable battles. While several key conferences have been decided (Colonial, MVC, Horizon, Big South, West Coast, etc.), we have plenty still to go. While the A-10 and Conference USA offer up snorers for the most part, here are the Big-6 BCS-laden tournaments and some insights to each to take a peak at before the viewing begins today on Wednesday.

Here’s the briefest of looks from a ramblin’ man’s perspective.

...in alphabetical order...

1) Atlantic Coast Conference [ACC]
Favorite: North Carolina
Hottest: Maryland
StrugaLING: Duke
Hot/Cold: Virginia & Virginia Tech
Overrated: Boston College
Bubble: Clemson & Florida State
Look Out For: Georgia Tech
Player to Watch: Sean Singletary [UVA's 1st of two superstars the other being JR Reynolds, has to make key shots for UVA to avoid a costly slip-up for seeding.]

2) Big East Conference [Big East]
Favorite: Georgetown
Hottest: Louisville
StrugaLING: Connecticut
Hot/Cold: Marquette
Overrated: Notre Dame
Bubble: Syracuse, West Virginia, & DePaul
Look Out For: Villanova
Player to Watch: Roy Hibbert [Georgetown's big-man needs to impose himself more with physical matchups awaiting him with Villanova/ND/Syracuse looming.]

3) Big Ten Conference [Big 10]
Favorite: Wisconsin
Hottest: Ohio State
StrugaLING: Everyone outside Ohio State & Wisconsin honestly
Hot/Cold: Michigan State
Overrated: Indiana
Bubble: Purdue, Illinois, Iowa, & Michigan
Look Out For: Michigan State
Player to Watch: Mike Conley Jr. [Ohio State point guard may be their key player in their attempt to lock up a #1 seed and continue the momentum off of their win at home against Wisconsin.]

4) Big Twelve Conference [Big 12]
Favorite: Kansas
Hottest: Kansas
StrugaLING: Oklahoma State
Hot/Cold: Texas Tech
Overrated: Kansas State
Bubble: Kansas State
Look Out For: Texas & Texas A&M
Player to Watch: Acie Law [Texas A&M’s big-time performer is as clutch as college basketball has seen in recent memory.]

5) Pacific Ten Conference [Pac-10]
Favorite: UCLA
Hottest: Washington
StrugaLING: Arizona
Hot/Cold: Oregon
Overrated: USC
Bubble: Stanford
Look Out For: Oregon/Arizona winner
Player to Watch: Darren Collison [UCLA’s point guard has rebounded from minor injuries for the most part, leading the team whom many consider to be the team-to-beat heading into March Madness.]

6) Southeastern Conference [SEC]
Favorite: Florida
Hottest: Vanderbilt
StrugaLING: SEC West
Hot/Cold: Tennessee
Overrated: Kentucky
Look Out For: Arkansas
Player to Watch: Ronald Steele [Alabama’s best all-around talent is currently injured and many wonder if he will miss out on the postseason altogether this season.]

One way or another, we’re primed for some amazing games. Especially since Saturday Night in Madison Square is always one of my favorite games of the year. Remember these? 1996: Allen Iverson v. Ray Allen, GMac’s run in 2006, Pitt/UCONN 1 (2002), 2 (2003...ok, not so great), and 3 (2004), and plenty more amazing memories have spoiled viewers of the Big East Tournament finale on Saturday nights on ESPN.

Fortunately, there’s enough to go around for everyone.
Even us VCU fans...