InClement Weather: Preseason Musings

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1) Don't get too hyped on the Saints and their rather spectacular preseason thus far. It's still the defense you've come to know and love...to give up big time points to rather mediocre opponents.

Kudos to Brees though on chillin' with Carlton Banks.
Credit: TheEverAstoundingAndAmazingGoogleImageSearch

2) Tom Brady won't be missing any time due to this shoulder "issue/injury". However, he might have some durability issues by week 10 this season that could be quite alarming. Good thing he avoids Haynesworth for the rest of the season.

3) Laurence Maroney s-s-s-sucks. Big time. Sammy Morris is the most talented back on that roster.

4) Mark Sanchez nor Matthew Stafford needs to be compared to Joe Flacco, in terms of team success this season. Both are better overall QBs than Flacco though. ESPN has OVERrated the Delaware product a little too much as of late.

5) I can't describe how much better Gruden is in the booth than Kornheiser. Memo to Tony, stick to PTI and far far away from the commentator's booth.

6) Tony Dungy is going to be missed BIG time. Jim Caldwell won't be the head coach in Indy in 2-3 seasons. In fact, Indianapolis will struggle to eclipse 9 wins with Caldwell at the helm.

7) LaDanian Tomlinson has one season to cement his status as an all-time great at running back. Good luck, LT.

8) Lito Sheppard better be ready for a LOOOOOONG season opposite Darrelle Revis. He's going to hate dealing with a lot of talented #2 options (Welker, Galloway, Evans, etc.).

9) I don't like Jared Allen and I never will. I just wanted to let that be known.

10) Anyone who thinks Minnesota, especially in that locker room, is better off with Tarvaris Jackson...is an idiot. Sage might be a (slightly) different story. This team is wasting Adrian Peterson in his prime as the top back in the NFL.

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Tuesday FourCast: Week 6

Paymon called it last week with his code orange games. Things definitely went awry, especially for one division. We saw some mighty teams fall in what should have been easy matchups. And with that, we start the mid-section of the season.


#1. Take That Vegas

At one point last week, the Redskins were 14.5 point favorites over the Rams. Let's not forget, this is the NFL, which means "No Funds League" if you use Vegas odds when betting on games. Coming off big wins against the Cowboys and Eagles on the road, the Redskins lay an egg at home against the hapless Rams. Being a long time fan of the Skins, I can tell you that this is normal. I told people in my office last week that this is a game the Skins always lose and had several of them remind me on Monday about that revelation. A few things I take away from this game. Josh Brown is one of the best free agent acquisitions the Rams have had for a while. The Redskins came down to earth as soon as they had a few turnovers. Vinny Cerrato should publicly apologize for forcing the team to keep Durant Brooks as their punter, since he wasted a draft pick on Brooks. Offensive linemen should bat down passes instead of thinking they are Jerry Rice. And, Richie Incognito should be a professional wrestler and not in the NFL.


#2. Gun-Slinging (Sorta) in the Wild West

How important is special teams play to a football team? Just ask the Cardinals who pulled a minor shocker at home against the Dallas Cowboys. There is no need to look further than the Cardinals' opening play and their closing play of the game. J.J. Arrington started things off with the proverbial punch in the nose, with a 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Later, Sean Morey and Monty Beisel combined to block a punt and claim the ball in the end zone for a TD in overtime to seal the victory. These two plays served as the end-caps for a game overstocked with turnovers and ugly play. Another observation I had refers to what T.O. cried about in a previous press conference. He wanted the damn ball. But, in three of the last four games, he has 8 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD. Marion Barber had 11 for 128 and a TD in this game alone. Note to T.O.: Get open, and you'll get the damn ball...and cozy up to Brad Johnson too.


#3. Is LT Finally Going to Shut Up???

I could see it before the game even started. A pouty LaDainian Tomlinson boo-hooing over a loss to the Patriots, claiming, "They cheated!!! Belichick is a bad bad person!!!" (Queue crying baby sound effect). It was nice seeing them pound the Brady-less Patriots like a team that's missing their All-Pro QB. Ok, that sounded redundant, but I'm sure you all know what I mean. Phillip Rivers got his groove on throwing to his over-sized receivers. The smaller Patriot DBs showed their weakness. Matt Cassel showed us why he's never been a starting QB. I think this is just further proof that since Tom Brady went down, the AFC is anybody's game.


#4. The New York Football...Midgets???

Not quite, but what are we to think? Did the Browns come to life, or did the Giants finally come back to earth? Derek Anderson spent the last few weeks barely holding Brady Quinn off from the starting QB job. Last night, Anderson restated his case as the outright starter in Cleveland. Eli Manning threw three picks (one of them a Pick-Six) to a set of Browns DBs that the average fan couldn't name a single member. Amazingly, sans the "Soulja", the Browns looked a lot like the team that went 10-6 last season. Braylon Edwards shook off some of that dust to give Anderson a hand, and once again looked like he's the next big thing at WR. Furthermore, the Giants lost their first road game since week 1 last season. If I was to point out a trend for this week, it's that three quarters of the NFC East needs to pick themselves up after some shocking losses and once again prove that they are the best division in the league.

Discussion Topic: The Value of Rudi Johnson in Fantasy Football

Since its inception nearly two years ago, PHSports has been about improving upon past work. Often times, the contributors – Clement, Armin, Sum and myself – have had entertaining and well-informed discussions that have never reached the eyes of our readers. That sparked an idea. Every so often, we will post the discussions that we have to PHSports for our readers to enjoy, absorb and contribute to the marketplace of ideas.

That said, Sum recently had a draft in which he selected Rudi Johnson in the 9th round of a 12-team league. This led to an exchange of comments between Armin, Sum and me. Clement was too busy teaching the next batch of heathens scholars from Richmond, Virginia.

Armin: I really like the Rudi Johnson pick. Whether he gets traded or stays in Cincy (he’s staying in Cincy), he’s going to have a comeback year.

Pay: I don't know about Rudi. I don't think he'll ever be the 1400-yard back again. I liked him a lot out of Auburn, because he was underappreciated despite being a beast. Even in 2006 when he had 1309 yards and 12 TDs, he only averaged 3.8 ypc and 6 fumbles (only 2 lost). What kills me is that his longest run out of 341 tries was only 22 yards.

Armin: He was hurt all last year, and a power-back is going to be right there around 4ypc. LT spent 2 of his 1200-1300 yard seasons under the 4ypc mark...and I'll be damned if you ever made that statement about him.

Rudi: Fell from 1st-round to second half in fantasy drafts

Credit: Cincinnati.com

Pay: One of those was his rookie year. He had 59 and 53 catches in those seasons. He also had longs of 42 and 54, which comparatively are weak in comparison to his portfolio. I'm aware that Rudi was hurt. Before he started hurting, his stats started dipping. Mind you, these stats started dipping despite having a full complement of skill position players in an offense that commonly uses 3 and 4-WR sets. LT did not have such a luxury, though Gates was awesome in 2004.

Also, outside of fantasy, even when LT isn't running well, he's an excellent pass blocker. Rudi is not and often gets replaced on passing downs. Time to get out of preseason form with the weak comparison.

Armin: You're getting into semantics. It's all about the fantasy performance and the numbers you put up, right?

Sum: I got Rudi in round 9 ... for that slot, I think that's a great grab, even if he "only" gets 1200 on 3.8 ypc ... esp since ypc isn't a fantasy stat. Also, comparing Rudi to LT is like comparing Jeff Garcia to Tom Brady. One is a serviceable player who should do just fine as a bye-week filler, the other is a beast.

Pay: You would like to grab Rudi, wouldn't you?

Armin: I'm just saying it's not a weak argument. All I was trying to say was, 3.8 yards for a powerback isn't hateful if he's serving his purpose. Hell, in Clement's league 24 carries for 54 yards is worth more than 2 for 54 (not seeing the point on breaking long ones, especially when you are comparing them with a goal-line back who gets their TDs). And the BEAST, LT has averaged 3.9 yards in one of his "beast" years and he's not exactly a "power back" (though I know he can play that role when needed)...he's more of a middle ground back who does a little of everything and has the ability to break one.

Yes, LT gets his receiving points....but LT is also a top pick. It shouldn't take a genius to figure out those differences (or that I'm not stupid enough to put Rudi and LT on the same EXACT level).

Back to the original point: "I really like the Rudi Johnson pick." (copied from earlier). If Pay doesn't think that's a good 9th round pick...then that speaks volumes of his weak "preseason-ish" analysis.

Pay: It was a low-risk, high-reward pick. I'd have opted for Selvin Young at the RB position in that round. I'll refrain from pulling the childish "how have your fantasy teams done" card, but all four of us know that my preseason fantasy analysis has been rock solid for at least the last 3 years.

Armin: Pull the card. I won 2 and finished in the championship in 3 of the 4 leagues I was in last year. And then there was Maria's team that won her a championship too. I think that speaks volumes again.

POW!!!

Pay: 2 for 3 in playoff championships. Very strong. Why wasn't it 3 for 3? :)

Armin: Bastej [sic] ....my team didn't show up. But that wouldn't have mattered....I lost it by the first set of games because your team showed up.

Pay: Had your team showed up, it wouldn't have mattered. Dr. Acula was a wrecking crew in the playoffs.

Sum: [Selvin] Young was available, but given Shanahan's record, how long will Young actually play? Given my back and forth with Denver RBs the past season, I wasn't going to risk it.
And Pay, your preseason analysis has been rock solid. Just ask Tom Brady.

Armin: R U Serious?! Ok...agree with you (Pay) there. Would have taken Young over Johnson (which is why I asked if he was even there in the 9th). In fact...I took Young over Johnson in our draft (I think...unless Johnson went before him...but would have taken Young regardless just based on his potential in Denver...hell, any RB’s potential). But, anyway...if Johnson is healed....he's good for at least 1000 and ~10 (with a variance...or is it standard deviation....of 2).