NBA Off-Season Report: 5 Teams to Watch [Installment #1]

Steve McNair thoughts here.
Plenty of talk this past weekend and all week on the Twitter feed.
Tweet tweet.

I've decided to take a look, in depth, at a few NBA teams that have me rather intrigued this off-season. Don't be surprised if the year 2010, specifically the free agents available, come up a time or two (or two dozen!).

I'll tackle 3 important issues for each team, make a bold prediction, and focus on the most important factor towards this team having a successful window of opportunity in the next 2-3 seasons.

I'll try my best to avoid the "easy and sexy" selections (ala Los Angeles, Cleveland, Orlando, Boston and San Antonio) and challenge myself.

Installment #1 focuses on the Toronto Raptors.
Record: 33-49 (4th in Atlantic Division)

If LeBron and D-Wade re-ink, this smiling face might be the biggest fish in the free agent market of 2010.
Credit: Sportsroids.com

Issue #1: The Future of Chris Bosh
this also serves as this post's "Most Important Factor"
Hedo Turkoglu ditching Portland and signing with Toronto at the last second was an amazing free agent acquisition; however, he can't lead a team deep into the NBA Playoffs by himself. Without Dwight Howard, Orlando wouldn't have ridden the trio of Turkoglu/Lewis/even a health Nelson past the Eastern Conference semi-finals, no less the NBA Finals. In fact, Philly fans may justifibly argue they wouldn't have gotten outside the 1st round. Point is, Turkoglu needs Bosh and Toronto needs its big man alongside Turkoglu, which I've said over and over and over (and over) this post, for its future to look its rosiest. Orlando may regret the Vinsanity move, Boston is only getting older, and Cleveland must nervously wait out the potential LeBron Sweepstakes in...wait for it...2010. As for Mr. Bosh, 23 and 10 isn't easy to find in the NBA these days, especially for a kid who just turned 25. His defense clealy isn't close to dominant (no less Superman); nevertheless, Bosh will see a stark improvement in the number of open shots - especially in the closing minutes of a game - due to Turkoglu's creativity with the ball in his hands in the closing minutes games. Bosh's ability to attack the hoop in the paint in traffic, something Dwight Howard struggled with mightily in the Playoffs, will really shine next season. It'll be tough, but re-signing the Georgia Tech-product MUST be Toronto's #1-focus from now on. Just to be fun though, if they lost Bosh, don't be surprised if they made a huge play for Amare Stoudemire. I'm just sayin'.

Potential is a scary scary word. A fun one too, though.


Issue #2: The "Development" of Demar Derozan
Swingman with top-flight athleticism and a high motor. (NBA.com)
Jaw dropping athletic specimen. At a chiseled 6'6 220 with large wingspan. Possesses the prototypical frame for an NBA wing. NBA Comparison: Vince Carter (NBADraft.net)

While only two sources, those are just a few of the upside-laden comments that made Derozan, despite one somewhat quiet season at USC, a top 10 pick.

However, DraftExpress.com might hit the nail on the head best:
A freak athlete, DeRozan has some natural offensive talent, but he’s essentially a blank canvas in terms of what kind of player he can be in the long run. Whoever picks him will obviously need to be patient, although he may more upside that arguably any wing player in this draft.

Derozan doesn't need to be great, or even that good, immediately. He won't start (likely) thiat any point this season and won't be ask to shoulder too much of an offensive load. Where he can most make his presence known is on the defensive side of the ball. Using his physical attributes, especially his impressive wingspan, will open up opportunities for increased minutes AND THEN increased looks at the basket. If he can develop an attack-the-hoop mentality, the kid could live at the free throw line. If he falls in love with his shot, for better or worse, he will be restricting the impact he can have on offense. Funny how much that has always pertained to Vince Carter, a likely comparison to Derozan. If I were Chris Bosh, I'd take a real good look at this kid and envision playing next to him for the next several years. He might be as good a 4th or 5th option the league has in a few seasons, if he's prepared to put in the work. In a few years, don't forget that I was the first to coin the nickname the "5th Element" (more below) for Derozan.

Shipping off Jason Kapono to Philly might've been a little overhyped, especially if Evans is the glue this team needs off the bench. The extra cap space didn't hurt either.
Credit: GlobeandMail.com

Issue #3: The Role Players
It's fairly obvious the nucleus of this team, assuming Bosh re-inks (big assumption!), has a core of four high quality players: the aforementioned (again and again) Chris Bosh, Hedo Turkoglu, Andrea Bargnani, and Jose Calderon. Derozan will likely be the "5th Element" (catchy, right?) of this roster, or maybe even more, but I don't want to automatically assume too much with him (yet). After signing Turkoglu, salaries were dumped (notably Shawn Marion and Anthony Parker), yet there was still enough left in the bank to re-ink Bargnani (aka "The Magician) to a deal in the neighborhood of 5 years at $50-million. However, something pressing starts to show. The bench. Or lack thereof. Names like Reggie Evans (a strong rebounder and glue guy), Marcus Banks, and Quincy Douby don't exactly illicit confidence when you're looking for solid reserves and role players. Remember, sharpshooter Jason Kapono is now in Philly. Although sometimes I wonder if All-Star Weekend overhyped this guy just a bit? Evans may be a little underrated by some (or just me), yet this team appears to lack a consisent scoring option off the bench, as well as a defensive stopper. Not to mention depth in the blocks. Perhaps everyone is looking for a James Posey in 2008-clone these days; unfortunately, there's not one on this roster. If Bosh can be kept, money will be tight as ever, which means rock solid drafting and savvy trades are at the utmost importance north of the border.
Note: Toronto had no 2nd-round selection this season.

Bold Prediction: Chris Bosh will NOT be in Toronto for the 2010-2011 season. Why? I believe LeBron and Wade, clearly the two biggest prizes of the 2010 Summer of Free Agency, are staying put. Ditto for veterans like Dirk, Pierce, Yao (injury be darned), and CP3 (who we likely re-ink mid-way through this season). That leaves Bosh, alongside names like Amare/Joe Johnson/Boozer/Ginobli/Nash as the biggest prizes in the free agency market. While a few people question Bosh's status as an elite #1-guy, I don't. His defense will improve and his potential (aka stock) is still growing. That means New York, who clearly is eyeing LeBron and Wade as options 1a and 1b, may be calling on Bosh to join (Nash???) in what Donnie Walsh should be calling Plan B.

Wait and see is all we can do from here.

Next up: Portland Trailblazers

All-Star Weekend: Questions to Consider [Eastern Conference]

As All-Star Weekend comes to a close with tonight’s East vs. West battle, there are countless questions being asked of each team as we head into the second half of the season.

However, there are internal questions – whether from the GM to the coach to the players themselves – that ring even truer.

What might those be? I might be willing to venture a guess…

Howard was all smiles en route to a Dunk Contest title.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Atlantic Division
Boston – “Is Rajon Rondo the point guard that will lead this roster to a championship?”

New Jersey – “Assuming Jason Kidd is finally moved, what is to be done with a 31-year old swingman named Vince Carter?”

New York – “What salaries can we dump on others, buy out, or sadly, pick up?”

Philadelphia – “Seemingly mired in the rebuilding process, what will this team do to make the step up into playoff contention?”

Toronto – “Who is the point guard of the future: TJ Ford or Jose Calderon?”

Central Division

Chicago – “Will the Bulls rally to become a dangerous low seed in the playoffs?”

Cleveland – “Will Larry Hughes finally realize the potential Cleveland has continued to believe he has?”

Detroit – “Will Detroit continue to be under the radar, quietly yielding the top balance of depth, experience and talent in the entire NBA?”

Indiana – “With the movement towards character firmly established, when does the winning begin?”

Milwaukee – “Underachieving with a youthful yet talented roster, when will the Bucks consider moving youth for savvy veteran leadership?”

Southeast Division

Atlanta – “Was the move for Mike Bibby a move for 2008 or the future in Atlanta?”

Charlotte – “What is Michael Jordan’s grand plan for allowing this team to shift from underachieving playoff pretender to actual playoff team?”

Miami – “Will the duo of Wade & Marion be further established with a contract extension for the Matrix?”

Orlando – “Will the seemingly vanquished tensions between Stan Van Gundy and Dwight Howard ever reach a boil?”

Washington – “Whose health is more important to the Wizards: Agent Zero or Caron Butler?”

See you in but for questions for the West...

Baker’s Dozen: NBA Playoff Questions

While it’s been more than a week or two since I last officially reflected upon the playoffs here, that doesn’t mean a TON of stuff hasn’t progressed since then.

In case you fell under a rock or are avoiding any type of specific analysis…here’s a quick re-cap [Clement-style].

It's what everyone wants! Right?
Credit: GearLive.com

…out West…
-Golden State became the first eight seed to ever upset a 1-seed in the modern 7-game format. Not to mention, they seemed to enjoy every moment of frustrating soon-to-be-MVP Dirk Nowitzki while silencing the championship-prepped Mavericks.
-The Denver Nuggets might’ve stolen Game 1, yet never really stood a fighting chance against the veteran-led, savvy Spurs.
-Phoenix survived an early hiccup against the Lakers and then proceeded to dispatch Kobe Bryant and co. much easier than they did in last year’s opening round of the western conference playoffs.
-Utah outlasted Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, and the other relatively unknown 10 Houston Rockets. Yet again denying T-Mac the opportunity to avoid a tearful early exit from the playoff picture.

…out East…
-Detroit swept the Magic…as expected.
-Cleveland swept the Wizards (sans-Arenas & Butler)…as expected.
-Toronto was out-rebounded, out-coached, and out-played by Jason Kidd’s, not Vince Carter’s, New Jersey Nets.
-Chicago swept Miami…which couldn’t have been expected by many of the experts.

And now…we’re nearly a week into the second-round (remember, the NBA Playoffs last half of the calendar-year) and suddenly things seem to be ending a lot quicker than many of us had anticipated and, more than likely, hoped for.

…out West…
-Riding a return to form from AK-47, the ever-resounding maturity of Deron Williams, and the emotional memories of Derek Fisher and Game 2…the Utah Jazz held serve at home, barely, over the Warriors (who missed out on two golden opportunities to steal a key game in the Playoffs on the road).
-San Antonio stung the Suns on the road late in Game 1, as should-be-MVP Steve Nash could only sit on the bench and bleed profusely from the nose (thanks trainer). After withstanding a few early punches (and a potential kick in the Achilles from Bruce Bowen to new 1^st-teamer Amare Stoudemire) from San Antonio, the Suns rode smart defense, namely from Kurt Thomas, and a cooled-off Tony Parker to even up the series as it heads to the Alamo.

By the way...Bowen isn't new to accusations.
[w/ Ray Allen] [w/ VC] [w/ Knicks] & [w/ Candace's older brother]

…out East…
-Detroit dominated every aspect of Games 1 and 2 at home AND despite an 18-point deficit in the 3^rd quarter of Game 3, the balanced-team attack of Detroit proved too poised and too potent for the still-Baby Bulls. With a 3-0 lead, there’s no bet in Vegas worth taking against Motown.
-New Jersey couldn’t keep up on the boards or in the closing moments against LeBron and the Cavs in the opening games of the series. As the series heads to Jersey, it remains to be seen if this is the last of Jason Kidd in New Jersey or not?

So there it is. Laid out all nice and easy to understand. [Sure.]

So what happens next?

Questions always happen NEXT.

Can Golden State feed off of the hysteria of their home-crowd and take the crucial step needed on Friday night…securing their first victory in the series? Is Baron Davis healthy enough to continue his stellar play? Can Stephen Jackson overcome the defensive resurgence of AK-47? Will Monta Ellis ever show up in these playoffs? Or will the Jazz, with so much size in Boozer and clutch-play from Williams/Okur, make the series a foregone conclusion by the time the weekend is over?

Can Phoenix man-up and steal one in San Antonio? What will become of Amare’s comments about the Spurs being a “dirty team”? Was Tony Parker simply rusty or potentially fatigued/figured out? Where is Manu Ginobli? Can Kurt Thomas honestly hope to briefly contain TD? Ultimately: will this series go seven, as everyone is hoping and wishing for?

Are the Nets ready to make a statement against Cleveland? Or is their disadvantage on the bench and the boards simple too much to overcome? Can Vince Carter shoot lights out or make a dozen-plus trips to the free throw line at home consistently? From my own specific bank, is this the year Larry Hughes finally delivers time-and-time again?

Can Chicago learn from this 0-3 deficit and scratch its way back to Motown with a fighter’s chance in Game 5? Or are these Pistons simply too talented, too together, and too much for the East to possible contain?

All these questions…and perhaps some answers are all that remains this busy NBA Playoffs-happy weekend.'

Until next time...