'06 NBA Draft Lottery: Perceptions into Reflections

We all know it isn’t completely fair to judge an entire draft class, no less the lottery (aka “teams who weren’t very good that year”), only one-season after the draft. It might be even more unfair to do it only 75 games into their first-season. Yet, it’s fun. Not to mention that, news flash, the majority of these players have seen limited playing time, had a limited impact, and been a part of one of the weaker & quieter draft classes in recent memory.

Of course, this could - and most likely will - change. Maybe not immediately, but give them some time. If you want a real laugh, take a look at the second-round. Find me someone who’s not a reach, overachiever in college, physical-freak, or a foreign-born project you’re rolling the dice on. That’s what makes the first-round so interesting, as teams are often targeting the more sure-thing, impact players.

Or so they hope.

Upon even the briefest of reflections, it seems consistently apparent that none of the fourteen first picks from the 2007 NBA Draft have had much of an impact so far this season. That is, for a playoff-bound team (sorry Brandon Roy). In fact, only two of them [Chicago’s Tyrus Thomas & Orlando’s JJ Reddick] are playoff-bound. The status of Bargnani is in the air; however, I do owe him some conciliation as he may play a rather important role if he can become healthy enough to be inserted back into Sam Mitchell’s playoff-rotation. As for Redick and Thomas, enjoy the bench most of this post-season.

Without too much more banter, let’s take a quick peak into the top fourteen picks, a brief prognosis of their current progress (or lack thereof), and who I would’ve taken (not in hindsight, but then and there). Remember…I’m not a stat-geek either.

Been hard to be geeked-up for a rookie, other than Roy, as of late.
Credit: NBA.com

Note: I know a majority of these picks were via trades and whatnot; yet, I’m going to assess each pick as if the team had that selection and could’ve tabbed any (available) player it saw fit.

Lottery Selections: [in order]
1) Toronto Raptors: Andrea Bargnani [Italy via Benetton Treviso]
-Averaging a quiet, yet confident 13 points a game, Bargnani settled well into the Raptor-rotation. Fortunately for Andrea and the team, their GM has swung some amazing moves since joining the reigns (including the drafting of the 7-foot Italian). While he won’t be the next Dirk, this kid has shown confidence inside and outside the 3-point line in key moments during his rookie season. Despite a major setback from an appendectomy, Bargnani could see 20+ minutes/game in the playoffs as a bench-contributor for a young, potent team.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Andrea Bargnani [The best selection for #1 was the Italian.]

2) Portland Trail Blazers: LaMarcus Aldridge [Texas]
-Slow to adapt to the NBA pace, and perhaps the buzz from the sticky-icky in the Portland locker room, LaMarcus has slowly developed into a minor contributor; especially during the recent, and untimely, absence of their top big-man, Zach Randolph. Seeing around 20 minutes a night as of late, Aldridge appears to be a strong compliment who should develop into a 15 and 8 guy most nights in a year or two. The key for him will be developing more post-moved and toughening up, both on defense and on the boards.
Who I Would’ve Selected: LaMarcus Aldridge [The team had a pretty stellar draft in ’06. Please don’t sleep on Span’s Sergio Rodriguez. Tabbing this 7-footer was a great start, as they’re not easy to find with athleticism like he often displays.]

3) Charlotte Bobcats: Adam Morrison [Gonzaga]
-I hate how the Bobcats draft and HERE is a perfect example. While a confident shooter in college, Morrison has struggled with real-defenders lined up against him. These “great college-talent” picks aren’t always the correct move. His FG% has dipped well under 35% the majority of the season, which is as unacceptable as his disturbing pale-complexion or that ridiculous mustache he rocks. While it may have sold a few tickets after draft day (or so ESPN said to DEATH), this team is in much greater need for a playmaking 2-guard.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Brandon Roy . He’s the playmaking 2 they desperately need, and may not find picking AGAIN in the top 5, in the 2007 draft. Matt Carroll isn’t a starting #2. Okay?

4) Chicago Bulls: Tyrus Thomas [LSU]
-Trading down from the 2-spot, which they acquired in the infamous Eddie Curry-deal, the Bulls eyed Thomas from start-to-finish. While his attitude and lack-of-an-outside-shot prevented him appearing on-court much of the first-half of the season, Thomas has come on of late and even poured in some rather impressive performances. Chicago is a team loaded with talent who doesn’t require many more lottery picks. While Thomas is an interesting fit, he really doesn’t seem to fit the Scott Skiles-mold more often than not.
Who I Would’ve Selected: LaMarcus Aldridge. Stick at 2 and draft the 7-footer. They could’ve avoided Ben Wallace or just used another big-body to tutor behind PJ Brown.

5) Atlanta Hawks: Shelden Williams [Dook]
-Recent reports have finally leaked that Williams was “promised” by Hawks management to be drafted here. Why? I have zero idea. The team was clearly in desperate need for a true point guard or a true center. Often closer to the D-League than 10 minutes a night on the court, Williams has struggled to adapt to NBA offensive and defensive schemes. Viewing this guy more than an 8 and 6 guy, best-case scenario, is a little difficult for me honestly.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Randy Foye or Marcus Williams. Trade down and take your pick of a true, confident point guard. Unless you think Anthony Johnson is your future.

6) Minnesota Timber Wolves: Randy Foye [Villanova]
-KG needed a big-name to join; yet, there wasn’t one in this draft. Yet, there were two steady performers who could become confident #2s behind him in 2-3 years in Brandon Roy and Randy Foye. Minnesota has a plethora of 2s and 3s, yet no true #1. Foye seemed an obvious pick. Foye has been quiet, but will be find a T-Wolf. Whether or not KG sticks around to help him…is another story.
Who I Would’ve Selected: I would’ve stuck with Brandon Roy. Sure, he isn’t a PG. But he’s a dynamic scorer and playmaker, much more so at his size than Foye. KG played best with a healthy Cassell, who I see much more of in Roy than I do Foye, even if he isn’t a PG like Foye.

7) Portland Trail Blazers: Brandon Roy [Washington]
-Two top seven picks is enticing, regardless of the draft. Not to mention that they actually sold Boston on trading FOR Sebastian Telfair (among some other minor details) for this pick. With the knowledge of Aldridge already locked in, this selection was eased with the knowledge that they could pull a trade for Brandon Roy. At #7, especially with who follows in the draft, this was a silly-steal of a selection. In case you didn’t know, Roy is the runaway Rookie of the Year…and the only real stud from this draft thus far.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Brandon Roy. And I would’ve got down on my knees and thanked somebody important for this golden opportunity. Stupid Danny Ainge. Check that: MORONIC Danny Ainge.

8) Memphis Grizzlies: Rudy Gay [UCONN]
-Some were shocked by the Battier/Swift deal for this selection. Some thought it was brilliant. I didn’t think it was the right move for the Rockets. Houston could’ve said goodbye to Rafer Alston and welcomed Marcus Williams. As for Memphis, selecting Gay (with tons of upside) was the easy selection. With Hakim Warrick in-tow, the team didn’t need another big-man right next to Gasol with this pick, and a swing-man like Gay seemed the right pick.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Rudy Gay, for all the reasons stated above.

9) Golden State Warriors: Patrick O’Bryant [Bradley]
-A high riser due to a solid NCAA Tournament, O’Bryant has been plagued by injuries all season long. Yet, he isn’t a lost cause NOR is he a diamond in the rough waiting to be exposed. TBA is the best description.
Who I Would’ve Selected: I would’ve made a MAJOR move. Trade B-Diddy (fast!) and move this pick with him if needed. Or keep it and select Marcus Williams, a true PG, to run the point. Erase Diddy’s bad health and try and allow guys like Ellis to flourish with a pass-first PG.

10) Seattle SuperSonics: Mouhammed Sene [Belgium via RBC Verviers-Pepinster]
-Just lot their previous “big-man project selections” [Robert Swift & Johan Petro], Sene can’t find minutes and can’t find the tools necessary to work with whatever system the Sonics are running these days. I hated this pick and still do.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Rodney Carney could be a nice 3 to replace Rashard Lewis next year. Ronnie Brewer could be a nice tough-guy to add into the rotation. Cedric Simmons has plenty of “upside” as a big-man. I just hope they draft Hasheem Thabeet next year and then trade up for Roy Hibbert. What a big-man lineup that’d be alongside Ray Allen.

11) Orlando Magic: JJ Redick [Dook]
-Oh goodie, it’s JJ-time. He got over that DUI/DWI early in the year, but will struggle mightily in the NBA over the years. He can’t put the ball on the floor, against a defender outside of the ACC and its officials, and often is a step, or three, behind. Orlando really goofed up a lottery pick that could’ve aided a developing, young team.
Who I Would’ve Selected: I would’ve taken Marcus Williams and allowed him to team with Jameer Nelson in a sick-backcourt duo. Either that or draft an athletic-freak like Carney or potentially a solid-6^th man like Simmons/Armstrong/Brewer.

12) New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets: Hilton Armstrong [UCONN]
-With guys like Chandler and David West, it’s hard for Hilton (and 15^th pick Cedric Simmons, out of NC State, to grab much PT at all). While everyone can use big bodies, Armstrong isn’t very meaty and the duo-picks of potential-based big-men seemed a little odd. Realizing that Peja is so soft (ditto for Bobby Jackson) more could’ve been done with these picks.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Combine the two first-rounders and move way up OR tab Carney (again, I mention him) or Brewer to be a more athletic or tougher compliment to a young, talented team.

13) Chicago Bulls: Thabo Sefolosha [Italy via Angelico Biella ]
-Another part of a trade, the Swiss was a nice upside-pick for the Bulls. They easily could’ve dealt the pick, but liked the potential in the young guard who handle the ball well and appeared to be a competent defender. With Duhon ahead of him as the #2 PG, he still has slid into the rotation here and there enough as a rookie.
Who I Would’ve Selected: With a luxury pick like this, I like taking the pick laden with potential. However, I also like stockpiling big-men if you can. Cedric Simmons would’ve worked here or potentially grabbing Marcus Williams, if only for trade-bait for later.

14) Utah Jazz: Ronnie Brewer [Arkansas]
-A complete, 5-tool player in college, everyone knew Brewer had upside. Most of us also knew it’d take a bit of time. It’s hard to judge the limited time Brewer sees on a very strong, capable Jazz lineup. Yet, this is the type of depth you like to have and the correct pick for a team that never seems to have a true grasp on a starting 2-guard as of late.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Nice pick here.

So that’s the first-round. I talked up Marcus Williams and Rodney Carney plenty, two guys who have looked solid as of late. Ironically enough, the biggest losers of the lottery were probably the Celtics. Although, as usual, the Hawks gave them a run for their money. I don’t see any picks quite as idiotic as the Hawks passing up on Chris Paul in ’05…but as always, only time will tell.

Thursday's Headlines - Spot On

* Late last night, Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart received permission from the University of Florida to speak with Billy Donovan about their coaching vacancy. Donovan is scheduled to meet with Florida AD Jeremy Foley today and then plans to vacation in the Dominican Republic, according to ESPN's Andy Katz. ESPN and CBS Sportsline (no, they aren't the only two sports websites I visit) are now reporting that Billy Donovan is staying put and that he will be in talks for an extension at Florida. Now, was I right or was I right? How many hours will it be until we hear about Rick Barnes or Billy Gillispie being asked if they're interested?

This Donovan decision should have little to no bearing on the decisions to be made by Horford, Noah, Brewer, and Green.

* West Virginia is hot on the heels of Kansas State head coach Bob Huggins, who calls the state home and played for the Mountaineers during the mid-1970s. In the eyes of many, Huggins accepting the job is contingent upon whether he will be able to take top recruit Michael Beasley with him.

* Butler has its new coach. Brad Stevens, 30, served as an assistant at Butler for six years under Todd Lickliter and Thad Matta. The Bulldogs return three of its top scorers (AJ Graves, Mike Green, and Pete Campbell) from the squad that made the Sweet 16 and gave eventual national champion Florida its stiffest test.

* Louis Orr is back in the head coaching ranks at Bowling Green. This is the guy who took a worthless Seton Hall team last season to the tournament, albeit in controversial fashion with a very low RPI and 40+ point losses, and proceeded to get whooped by Wichita State. As a reward for his efforts, he got canned.

On the PHSports Docket
* NFL Mock Draft
* NCAA basketball coaching carousel
* NBA Draft early entries

Flying Dangerously Under the Radar: The Toledo Point Shaving Scandal

In all forms of reporting, timing is the name of the game. In most cases, a point shaving scandal would be at the top of the reporting docket. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your interests), CBS has had all of its eggs in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament basket and ESPN has followed suit along with overhyping the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament.

Point shaving is a serious deal, and Toledo is not a regular middling college football program. They are consistently in the running for the MAC Championship and have sent numerous student athletes to the NFL, including Chester Taylor, Kelly Herndon, Bruce Gradkowski, and Nic Kaczur.

The Point Shaving Scandal
Last Friday, an affidavit filed in U.S. District Court in Detroit said Harvey "Scooter" McDougle, Jr., a running back on the Toledo football team from 2003-2006, was among other unidentified football players who participated in a point-shaving scheme in return for money. McDougle and other co-conspirators allegedly accepted money and other "things of value to University of Toledo athletes" to influence or attempt to influence the outcome of games.

FBI agents first uncovered a connection between the Sterling Heights gambler, whom they identify as "Gary," and UT athletes in November 2005. “Gary” allegedly invited athletes to gamble and dine at Greektown Casino in Detroit. When FBI agents questioned McDougle on Dec. 14, 2006, he told them Gary offered an unnamed UT player as much as $10,000 to sit out a game or number of games but did not say whether the player did so, according to the affidavit. Other players received groceries, merchandise, and other gifts.

During one call in December 2005, McDougle said he would talk to other players and see if they could make money on a game between Toledo and UTEP in the GMAC Bowl, the complaint said. Toledo steamrolled to a 45-13 victory and McDougle did not play in the game, as he was injured for much of the 2005 season.

A Las Vegas oddsmaker said Monday night that he alerted Nevada gambling authorities and the NCAA last summer about unusually large amounts of money being wagered on University of Toledo football games.

McDougle was arraigned and released on a $10,000 bond. He faces a stiffer penalty of up to five years in prison and a $250,000 fine if convicted.

The Bigger Picture
This is a black eye on college football. No one wants a like this happen. If point shaving occurred at a BCS school, a story like would have owned the sports airwaves only a few minutes after “One Shining Moment” finished playing on CBS. Instead, it has gone under dangerously under the radar, and only scratching the surface in print and on the radio.

In the coming days, weeks, and months, more information will be divulged about the scandal. What we do know is that a lot more than $10,000 was up for grabs in the scandal. As a rule of thumb offered by Kenny White, chief operating officer of Las Vegas Sports consultants, if $10,000 is being offered up to sit out a game, then they are probably betting ten times that amount at a very minimum. Furthermore, it’s likely that there are a multitude of individuals behind this ring.

In my limited perspective, a major issue is what Myles Brand will do to address this latest scandal at the NCAA level. My skepticism tells me a few statements from the NCAA and nothing close to steps towards eliminating gambling from the collegiate landscape.

Coaching Changes Abound

Before we delve into yesterday's coaching changes, let me clarify a point that Clement made about not mentioning coaches in posts. When the games are taking place, we usually talk less about coaches unless they do something remarkable. Too often, pundits in positions where they must exhibit some sense of accountability (but often fail) heap excessive praise upon coaches in a liberal fashion (see Coach K nearly every year which happens to be "his best coaching job to-date"). In plain terms, here's how I see it: coaches build programs, players win games, and coaches lose them on occasion. The continued, unconditional support of administration, boosters and fans is also important. It's not intended to diminish the work of fabulous tacticians like Rick Majerus.

With that disclaimer out of the way, let's talk about yesterday's hirings and the accompanying indications.

Iowa Hires Lickliter
This was a surprise. I would've thought that the recently-crowned NABC Coach of the Year would have more pull, but there may be more to the Iowa rebuilding program than I immediately see. Also, Lickliter has experience recruiting in the Midwest, which is a major plus. Lickliter should receive a year to mold his team to his liking, but will be judged on results starting in January 2009 when the Big Ten conference schedule commences.

Beilein to Michigan?
ESPN and CBS Sportsline are reporting that West Virginia head coach John Beilein has accepted the same position at Michigan. When I think of Michigan basketball under Tommy Amaker, the first thought is that of wasted possessions. While Beilein is not going to catch anyone off-guard with his coaching style (predicated on the 1-3-1 defense, outside shooting, and offensive discipline), he's not going to surprise anyone. With Beilein, the ceiling may be somewhat lower in comparison with younger prospects like Chris Lowery, but you know what you're getting and it's a pretty solid product.

Altman joins Arkansas
Goodbye 10-seed curse. Hello, blue chip recruits. In Dana Altman, Arkansas gets a proven bench coach with a penchant for maximizing talent. In Arkansas, Altman gets access to recruiting pipelines, facilities, and money that just isn't there in the Valley. A symbiotic relationship, no doubt. Can Altman make the immediate splash reminiscent to Bruce Pearl in the SEC and be able to lure recruits in the long term? I maintain that despite the inexperience, VCU's Anthony Grant would've been worth an interview following the snub by Billy Gillispie (whose last name I now spell correctly) and ultimately the better fit for the talented Razorbacks than Altman.

Heath: From SEC to Big East
That sounds a lot better than what it is in reality. South Florida has taken a nose dive since Seth Greenberg left for Virginia Tech. Heath's energy and ability to recruit is exactly what the Bulls need in the short-term. The question is whether Heath will bolt once a better job is offered to him.

This most recent fallout leaves vacancies at mid-major hubs Creighton and Butler, as well as at West Virginia. The Creighton job will undoubtedly create some buzz because they play in an awesome arena with a dedicated fan base. Moreover, they're the only game in town, unless you count college baseball. Butler is a coaching factory, but I'm not certain how long they can keep plucking assistants to be their head coach and succeed with flying colors as they did with Thad Matta and the aforementioned Lickliter. In Morgantown, the search for their next coach has begun. Winthrop head coach Gregg Marshall might be the perfect fit.

And of course ...

There's Billy Donovan. So that's 3 Final Fours, 2 NCAA Championships, and the guy is barely over 40. His only loss as a coach in the Final Four was against a dominant Michigan State team in 2000 that 5-seed Florida had no chance beating. Donovan says he's going to enjoy the championship victory [before he entertains any offers to coach elsewhere]. While I see no problem with the leveraging that will take place in order to get a deserved hike in pay and possibly the court named after him, his legacy is at Florida (winning 2 championships with players that he recruited) and not at Kentucky.

As for Kentucky, they will still have a vacancy to address. When the smoke clears, Tom Crean (AKA "The Stockbroker") of Marquette will take the reins in Lexington although Billy Gillispie remains the top realistic candidate after Billy Donovan.

March Madness & the National Title Game: Closing Thoughts

Well, it should come as no surprise to any serious college basketball fans that the Florida Gators took home the 2007 National Championship. A lot of office pools will be checking tie-breakers as the chalk, meaning the Gators of course, stood firm.

By now, you should know the majority of their accolades: first repeat champions since Duke in 91-92, first ever starting 5 to repeat, and the first SEC team to repeat since Kentucky back at the half-century mark in the 1900s.

What you will soon know, being that I watched every second of the game so I could sound like I know what I was talking about, were some of my other tournament and NCAA-related observations. I’ll call them my 2007 NCAA Tournament Top Ten. Clichéd…yet simplistic enough to work.

#1. RE-PEAT
-Picked by the majority of pundits, myself included, this Gator squad was the most talented team from start to finish this season. Sure they encountered their typical SEC-hiccups, yet the Gators always played their best game against their best opponents. While some felt the tournament selection committee rewarded them too highly, perhaps solely on the merits of being the defending champs, with the easiest region and the overall #1-seed…the Gators took out two of the best teams the nation had to offer once they left the South Regional [UCLA & Ohio State].

#2. Fab Five
-The new “Fab Five” took out the “Thad Five”, never allowing their lead to dip any closer than 6 points in the final 30+ minutes of the game. While the Buckeyes never let things get out of control, Florida never seemed to sweat or shift into any sort of panic mode. Al Horford was a master in the blocks, Corey Brewer had an electric first-half on both sides of the ball, Taurean Green hit two daggers to restore double-digit leads as he paced the Gators throughout the second-half with steady & heady play, and Lee Humphrey excelled from behind the arc (as he always seems to do). Even the guy’s ridiculous air ball lead to a pivotal three-point play (typical, isn’t it?) As for Mr. Noah, I’ll handle him a little later. And it won’t be very kind.

#3. #1 Pick
-Anyone who doesn’t want to draft Greg Oden at #1…is a moron. I love Kevin Durant as much as anyone, but you NEVER pass up the opportunity to draft a backend center…no less one WHO WANTS TO PLAY CENTER. Tonight’s loss by the Buckeyes has ZERO to do with Greg Oden. I won’t hear any arguments about him lingering back on top-of-the-key screens either, as Buckeyes guards never fought through them enough and Thad Matta obviously had that idea planned (which is surprising with the three-point shooting prowess of the Gators). You want numbers from a freshman? 25 points [10-15 fgs], 12 rebounds, and 4 blocks. He had several ferocious dunks and several monster blocks (the block on Brewer would’ve given Gus Johnson a hernia and a heart attack). Unfortunately, while it wasn’t his intent, a lot of the blocks ended up back in Gator hands and led to eventual crippling buckets. Let’s not forget the 38+ minutes he logged either. Try that at 7-foot and nearly 270 lbs. Greg Oden will leave Columbus with nothing to be ashamed of. I will however be calling out his teammates…next.

#4. The “Others”
-No, this isn’t Lost. Instead, it’s me calling out a few choice-Buckeyes. While I understand this team is young, several key Buckeye players were completely absent from the world’s greatest stage. Yes, the limelight often gets the best of a lot of people. Especially since your first time is typically your only time. Ask Francisco Garcia, Jeff Green, Joey Graham, and a few others what the Final Four can do to you. Jamar Butler just plain stunk up the Georgia Dome tonight. He shot 1-7 from the field, with only a late prayer going in, and was nowhere near the inside of the net on any of his deep shot attempts. His defense was consistently lagging (that’s being friendly too) and I felt Matta made a key mistake not inserting Lighty or Cook, even for a brief stint, earlier in the game. Ron Lewis penetrated well and made some nice transition dunks, but was absent the entire Final Four. He never worked off of a screen and seemed unable to square up to the hoop. I was thoroughly disappointed in the 5^th-year senior’s performance these past two games. Othella Hunter could use some tip drills…but he’s young and a little soft still. While Mike Conley Jr. dodged early foul trouble, he definitely got a peak into what a point guard should be for his team from Taurean Green (as I noted in my preview, ahem). Conley Jr., whether he stays or goes, will be an incredible talent…but was clearly the second best PG on the court tonight.

#5. Backing Down
-There are ways to effectively post-up and then back down your opponent. Want to see how to do it? Watch Larry Johnson at UNLV in the early 90s. Watch Sean May at UNC (especially that title-game performance vs. Illinois). Watch Will Thomas, last season, at George Mason. You bring your body into your defender, absorb the pressure, wait for them to take a step back, and then lean into their body and balance your way into a 3-4 foot tip-in or jump-hook shot. Al Horford doesn’t do this. He backs you down, and I admire the physicality, and drops a shoulder deep into you. Chris Richard lowers the boom. Noah is afraid to do it when you realize you can stop him by holding your ground. Of course the refs didn’t decide this game, but after seeing plenty of highlights (and talking to Pay), the Butler game definitely showed why Horford will have to develop a new back-down method in the NBA. You can’t even do that against a bench-big in the pros.

#6. Coaching
-We don’t talk much about coaches at PHSports and I’m sticking to that…mostly. Except that Thad Matta has done a masterful job recruiting at Ohio State and has the program a year or two away from being that consistent top-1o performer they were this year and most of last. As for Billy Donovan…stay at Florida. Kentucky is enticing, but it isn’t worth leaving what you have in Florida. Big men are easy to pluck in the Sunshine State and you have job security for life. For life. While Kentucky’s numbers and legacy are daunting, Donovan isn’t likely to depart from Gator-nation anytime soon.

#7. Joakim Noah
-#1 pick last year? A fool for not going? No. He’ll make his money and he has two national titles. Forget all the degree talk though. Please. As for Noah’s skills, I’m not sure what the hoopla was all about. He has zero offensive game, outside of tip-ins and screaming transition dunks. He rebounds pretty well, but not any better than a Paul Millsap (2006 2^nd-rounder) or Dominic McGuire (2007 late-1^st rounder, in my opinion). Sure, he’s got a lot of heart and loves to win…but he won’t be an NBA talent. He won’t develop an outside shot, as Horford has begun to do quite well, and lacks any physicality (there’s that word again). He cowered away from Oden and won’t bang with the big boys. It was a lot of fun blocking shots from George Mason and a softer UCLA team (don’t act like they were intensely physical last year). Ironically enough (especially with Julian Wright still sticking as a Jayhawk…for now) it seems that Noah could be drafted anywhere from #3 to #7. What can I say to that? I don’t like. A quick peak back into draft talk…my roommate calls Hansbrough the next Mark Madsen (a little ridiculous, although he has called so many people its unreal, including…pre-draft for all of them–Monta Ellis, Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Manu Ginobili, and Nenad Kristic– says he’s “like a Varejao, minus the hustle and lot more growl.”). I’ll say 8 and 5 for a shorter than 6-year career. Hate? SURE!

#8. One Shinning Moment
-Overall grade for the tournament: D. Hate? Nope. Name the great moments? Maynor over Duke. Lewis over Xavier. Jeff Green over Vandy. Florida’s repeat. Georgetown’s comeback. Maybe for half of those. No true buzzer-beat, no true Cinderella, inconsistent refing, sloppy CBS coverage in-studio and behind the mic, and a real lack of superstar play. The Final Four was a relative bore with a so-so title game. They can’t all be great…but the last few years haven’t been much fun. We all love March Madness…yet it hasn’t been so maddening as of late.

#9. Top 5
-Memphis selects Greg Oden. Boston picks Kevin Durant. Milwaukee selects Joakim Noah. Charlotte takes Brendan Wright. Phoenix, via Atlanta, steals Al Horford. There’s your top 5, as I see it, right now. Julian Wright can muck this up quickly.

#10. Final Thoughts
-No, I won’t be lame enough to make a 2008 prediction. I did take Florida over OSU in the pre-season…but what does that mean anyways? {I had UCLA and UNC rounding out my useless pre-season Final Four). I had Florida as my national champ on my sheet of integrity (beating UCLA and UNC, who would’ve beaten A&M). In the end, it’s been a solid 2007 for college basketball. Conference tournaments were pretty solid, the VCU-upset was amazing for me, and Selection Sunday (despite no Cuse somehow) was a lot of drama to build up to. A lot of props needs to go to Pay for his amazing work prepping brackets, running play-by-play, and bringing home rock solid analysis. It takes a lot of hard work to make up for my ranting and rambling.

This closes out my college basketball talk for the next few months.

Nevertheless, plenty of good stuff looms: NFL Draft, NBA Playoffs, MLB kicking off, and the NBA Draft. Not to mention a certain Tradition Unlike Any Other..

Until next time…

Top College Basketball Recruiting Classes for 2007

Tonight marks the culmination of events that began in mid-October when teams began practicing with one goal in mind: win the national championship. For Florida or Ohio State, it will become a reality. For everyone else, they can look forward to next year and the fruits of their seemingly ceaseless recruiting pitches.

Data from Rivals.com

1. Kansas St.
***** Michael Beasley, PF, 6-9 235 (1)
***** Bill Walker, SF, 6-6 220 (7)
*** Dominique Sutton, SF, 6-4 195 (97)
*** Fred Brown, SG, 6-3 185
*** Jacob Pullen, PG, 6-1 175

Next year, Kansas State will not be in the discussion as a bubble team, because they’ll have top recruit Michael Beasley playing the 4 for them. Bill Walker should be able to return from injury and the Wildcats should return most of its players. Not to mention, Bill Huggins will have another year to mold his players to his likening.

2. Syracuse Orange
***** Donte Green, SF, 6-9 217 (10)
***** Johnny Flynn, PG, 5-11 170 (22)
**** Antonio Jardine, SG, 6-1 180 (57)
**** Rick Jackson, PF, 6-8 235 (95)
*** Sean Williams, C, 6-11 220

The Orange reloads at every position, with Flynn and Green leading the recruiting class. Syracuse will need leadership at the guard and forward, as they lose crucial starters in both areas. The maturation process of Paul Harris may play a big role in determining how far these Orange may go next season.

3. USC Trojans
***** OJ Mayo, PG, 6-5 215 (6)
***** Davon Jefferson, SF, 6-7 190 (15 – class of 2006)
*** Leonard Washington, SF, 6-6 225 (108)
*** Venoy Overton, PG, 6-0 165
*** Marcus Simmons, SF, 6-4 175

USC was 10 minutes and a couple of fresh bodies away from upending #1 seed North Carolina in the East region. Next year, that excuse won’t apply, as the Trojans have reloaded with speed and skill. Note to Tim Floyd: Keep OJ Mayo on the court and out of trouble.

4. Arizona Wildcats
***** Jerryd Bayless, SG, 6-3 193 (9)
***** Jamelle Horne, SF, 6-7 205 (19)
*** Laval Lucas-Perry, PG, 6-1 191 (128)
*** Zane Johnson, SF, 6-6 200 (132)
*** Alex Jacobson, C, 7-1 223

Lute Olsen is just dying for leadership. He didn’t get it with Mustapha Shakur and he’s hoping that Bayless is more than a one-and-done player. Horne will immediately step into the Marcus Williams role, who’s more than likely NBA-bound. With that said, will Jacobson fill the shoes of Ivan Radenovic, who was by far, the most consistent player on last year’s underachieving roster.

5. Florida Gators
***** Nick Calathes, PG, 6-5 185 (13)
**** Chandler Parsons, SF, 6-8 190 (21)
**** Alex Tyus, PF, 6-8 210 (47)
**** Adam Allen, SF, 6-6 185 (68)

With this recruiting class, you can expect a mass exodus from the Florida player ranks. If Billy Donovan jettisons for Lexington, you can expect at least a couple of de-commits to occur. Meanwhile, the Gators are still chasing 5-star big man Patrick Patterson. Should the Gators land Patterson, they’ll have to be considered a top 3 recruiting class.

ON THE PERIPHERY

Ohio State: It should be no shock to anyone that Thad Matta can recruit. Knowing Greg Oden is very likely to ascend to the NBA ranks this summer, Matta signed Kosta Koufos, a 7-footer with skill who is a 5-star recruit. Matta signed four other young men, all of whom can fight for minutes upon arrival in Columbus.

Purdue: Knowing that his squad lacks size, Matt Painter signed four versatile 4-star recruits, three of which are 6’8” and taller.

Duke: Coach K must’ve known that his team would have scoring problems this season, because he’s snapped up Kyle Singler, who’s considered the most complete recruit entering college basketball next season. After a year’s hiatus, Duke gets a commit from the nation’s top white player. Taylor King can light it up from deep and Nolan Smith provides some badly-needed ball-handling skills.

Indiana: No matter how he got him (google "Gregg Doyel" + "Kelvin Sampson" + "Gordon" and you're golden), Kelvin Sampson landed Eric Gordon, the nation’s #2 recruit according to Rivals. Gordon should make sure that Indiana scores more than 13 points in a half versus UCLA. Sampson also signed imposing center Eli Holman, Jordan Crawford (PG), Jamarcus Ellis (JUCO-SG), and Brandon McGee. Can the talent get Sampson back into the Sweet 16 for the first time in what seems like forever?

The Ultimate National Championship Preview: Florida Gators vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
by Chris Clement

To be honest, I’m not very excited about tonight’s national title game. Sure the “fan” in me wants to be pumped (reminding myself that this is far from a shoe-in victory for the defending champion Gators). Ironically enough, such a point was vastly proven by the same two schools, just different squads, a little over three months ago (when the Gators football team decimated the seemingly outgunned, outhustled and overrated Buckeyes). Unfortunately, that game was a stinker after the first two possessions and this one may follow a similar suit.

So below, I’m going to mark down a couple thoughts, a little analysis, a prediction or two, and perhaps, something that doesn’t resemble soft whimpering and gentle crying…all for you.

We’ll call it my five keys for a good game…or an eventual blow-out.

Oden’s Fouls

It’s too bad we can’t give Greg Oden ten fouls. Perhaps, Al Horford could be called for an offensive foul once or twice as he backs down people like a lumberjack tackling a redwood. Ditto for Noah and his phantom pivot feet and the lack of any traveling calls against them. One could say the same for Conley Jr., often neglected for being punished for constantly palming the ball (then again, who doesn’t these days?) or Jamar Butler’s often wild and erratic reaches on defense. Either way, Greg Oden can’t get into foul trouble on Monday Night. He might be able to pick up that second foul in the first half, but it had better be in the closing minutes when he needs to rest. With Noah/Horford/Richard out there, Thad Matta can’t survive long with guys like Hunter and Terwilliger trying to man-up against the Gator big men.

Can Oden stay out of foul trouble and be effective against the Gators' frontline?
Courtesy: Celebopedia

Guard Play

Taurean Green is the heart and soul of this Gator championship squad. If you disagree, then I doubt your validity as a college expert. While the big men and Corey Brewer get all the accolades and Lee Humphrey is destroying nets around the country, when Green is on, the Gators are great. Whether its dishing out assists in traffic, hitting key threes as teams attempt rallies against his Gators, or stifling defense in the half-court trap, Green makes these Gators go. Mike Conley Jr. will be a much better pro, but he will see everything a point guard should mean to his team on Monday Night. Talk to William Avery about what Khalid El-Amin showed him back in '99. No, it wasn’t paternity suits, but calculated and team-oriented guard play. As for the other Buckeyes, Jamar Butler must continue consistent inside/outside play and be prepared to run himself ragged on Monday night. Lee Humphrey isn’t very athletic, so there is a chance to keep an eye on him. But even a brief hesitation, and the ball is suddenly through the net. Be physical with him and get him thinking about a few early misses…and he becomes a different player. He won’t put the ball on the floor nearly as often as he should. While Green struggled despite a Gator victory, the same was true – much more surprisingly – for Buckeye 5^th-year senior Ron Lewis. Let me make no beefs about it: Ron Lewis cannot struggle on Monday night. No chance.

Green: Must re-establish form that got Gators to Atlanta
Courtesy: Rivals.com

Coaching

I try not to publicize them about too much, but Donovan was as savvy a coach as the Final Four had to offer (3-0 in national semifinal). He has his team in the perfect mindset. They know they are the best team on the floor and their task is to remind you of that each and every time. These guys know how important repeating sounds. What’s more important is winning the championship this year. As for the Buckeyes, Matta has gotten every last inch out of a young, talented team. While he can’t teach Oden in less than 48 hours how to avoid foul trouble, we will see how effectively he can work the refs by balancing calls made – or not made – on the bigs of both teams. That alone may decide his team’s fate more than their play.

Is a repeat in the cards? Is Billy D off to Lexington?
Courtesy: CBS4, Viacom

December 23^rd, 2006

It doesn’t matter. Sure, Florida decimated the youthful Buckeyes 86-60 in Gainesville. But neither team will turn to that tape anytime soon. Horford played – when every media report said he was out (typical) – and Oden has barely walked on the court by that point. The Buckeyes are much more confident and a more grounded team. The scariest thing though is this - Florida is better. Much better. The Gators don’t go deep, but they’re deeper now than they were then. Either way, even if Florida spanks the Buckeyes on Monday night, it won’t be because of December 23^rd, 2006.

Conley Jr.: Has gotten just a bit better since December 23
Courtesy: Indianapolis Star

X-Factors

Something unexpected usually needs to go right for a team – or wrong for their opponent – when a national title is delivered. As a 'Cuse fan, Kueth Duany’s early double-digits were an unwelcomed sign that aided us to an early 18-point lead. The same could be said for the play of Anderson Hunt, 29 points in the ’90 title win, that led to his Final Four MOP award for the Runnin’ Rebs of UNLV. Ditto for Mike Dunleavy’s 21 points in their 2001 title-victory over Arizona and so on and so forth. All of these guys were talented – some more than others, of course – yet all of them made unexpected impacts. Who could these new people be tonight? I’m not going to try and guess. Except for mentioning one name, David Lighty of Ohio State.

Alright, that’s all I got. I’m hoping for a good game…but not crossing my fingers. I’ll say Florida by a dozen-or-so right now, while rooting heavily for the Buckeyes to return the upset to the Gators side.

If Florida does win, that’d be both collegiate championships that really matter to most – basketball and football – and the first back-to-back titles since Duke (which would be a blessing in itself to push aside).

Either way, I'm hopeful that it’ll be more fun than it appears it’ll be.

I’ll throw out some reactions on Tuesday one way or another…so until then.

2007 MLB Preview: Part III of III [Predictions]

With baseball just around the corner, the contributors at PHSports are taking a stab at predicting the key teams and players in the 2007 season.

American League

	Fuego	Clement	Summy	Paymon	Armin
East	Yankees	Yankees	Red Sox	Yankees	Red Sox
Central	Tigers	Tigers	Tigers	White Sox	Tigers
West	Angels	Angels	Angels	Angels	Angels
Wild Card	Red Sox	White Sox	Blue Jays	Red Sox	Yankees
Champ	Red Sox	Tigers	Tigers	White Sox	Tigers
MVP	Alex Rodriguez	Jermaine Dye	Lyle Overbay	Vladimir Guerrero	Alex Rodriguez
Cy Young	Johan Santana	Jose Contreras	Daisuke Matsuzaka	Johan Santana	Justin Verlander
ROY	Alex Gordon	Delmon Young	Alex Gordon	Delmon Young	Alex Gordon

National League

	Fuego	Clement	Summy	Paymon	Armin
East	Mets	Mets	Braves	Phillies	Mets
Central	Cardinals	Cardinals	Brewers	Cardinals	Cardinals
West	Dodgers	Dodgers	Dodgers	Diamondbacks	Dodgers
Wild Card	Braves	Cubs	Phillies	Mets	Phillies
Champ	Mets	Mets	Phillies	Mets	Mets
MVP	Albert Pujols	David Wright	Khalil Greene	Albert Pujols	Jose Reyes
Cy Young	Carlos Zambrano	Chris Carpenter	Randy Johnson	Barry Zito	Roy Oswalt
ROY	Chris Young	Kevin Kouzmannof	Chris Young	Chris Young	Chris Young

World Series
Fuego: New York Mets over Boston Red Sox
Clement: Detroit Tigers over New York Mets
Summy: Detroit Tigers over Philadelphia Phillies
Paymon: Chicago White Sox over New York Mets
Armin: Detroit Tigers over New York Mets