Wednesday, March 07, 2007

UNC - Kansas Breakdown

A few Kansas supporters have disputed North Carolina being given a 1 seed over Kansas in the most recent installment of the tournament projections. Here are the factors I’ve been looking at throughout this process. As far as I know, neither team has a serious injury.

Data indicators courtesy of www.kenpom.com.

North Carolina

Kansas

Record

25-6

27-4

RPI/Pomeroy rating avg

2

8.5

SOS

5

65

Record v. RPI Top 50

11-4

3-2

Record v. RPI 51-100

4-1

9-2

Losses v. RPI 100+

1

0

Non-Conf. SOS

8

110

Last 10 Record

6-4

9-1

Road/Neutral Record

9-5

11-2

Best Overall Win

v. Ohio State (w/o Oden)

Florida (N)

Best Road/Neutral Win

@ Duke

Florida (N)

Lately, Kansas has been peaking and Carolina has been shaky on the road. For that reason, many bracketologists have been giving the Jayhawks the nod over the Tar Heels. However, are those same bracketologists becoming what they hate most (pollsters)? In many respects, I tend to think so, and it slants public opinion.

Looking at the numbers, Kansas is buoyed by 2 less losses, no losses to teams with a RPI over 100, a much better record over their last 10 games, a stronger road/neutral court record, and their signature win against Florida in Las Vegas. As for Carolina, their RPI is stronger, their non-conference and overall schedule flattens Kansas. They have 8 (count ‘em, 8) more RPI top 50 victories and a stronger winning percentage against them to boot. While their best overall win is not as strong as Kansas winning one game versus Florida in Las Vegas, wins at Duke, at Arizona (28 points), versus Tennessee in New York level the strength of quality wins and even tilt the category in Carolina’s favor.

All of this comes back to schedule strength. North Carolina is likely to lose more games down the stretch to teams in their conference because the teams in their conference are considerably stronger than that of the Big XII. Furthermore, Kansas did not play the 2nd and 3rd best teams in their conference (Texas, Texas A&M) on the road. North Carolina played at the six next best teams (according to RPI) in their conference. Given the current body of work, at this time, North Carolina must be considered above Kansas.

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

We Hold These Truths To Be Self-Evident

Some truths we hold to be self-evident. First, George Mason from Seasons 1 & 2 of "24" looks oddly familiar to George Mason men's head basketball coach Jim Larranaga, whose upstart Patriots fell just short of defeating Virginia Commonwealth for the CAA title. I wonder if he ever did the YMCA dance at CTU like Coach L during Midnight Madness. Anywho, Gonzaga (West Coast) and Niagara (Metro Atlantic) also took home the automatic bids on Monday night. The second truth is that Coach K does not take responsibility for his players. EVER. Remember the Laettner stomp? Third, Billy Packer is Billy Packer, and this means he'll make an asinine statement prior to play in the NCAA tournament. Last year, it was his reaction to George Mason being in the field (we've not forgotten about Seth Davis). This year, he's a couple weeks early.
Tuesday is the least busy day of Championship Week, so I wanted to address the Duke/UNC fiasco at the close of their game on Tuesday. Bill Simmons encapsulates my thoughts on Duke and the most recent lack of responsibility shown forth by Coach K.
In his now-second most recent column which can be found at ESPN, he states: "Congrats to Coach K for questioning why Hansbrough was still in the game and inadvertently using Isiah Thomas' "he was asking for it" defense. And the Duke fans wonder why everyone hates Duke. If the roles were reversed, and this had happened to McRoberts, Coach K would have shown up for the news conference covered in McRoberts's blood, fighting back tears, urging for the offending UNC player to be suspended for the entire ACC tournament and basically looking like Jackie Kennedy in Dallas after the JFK shooting. God, I hate Duke."

(Editor's Note: The link for this article now takes you to another article, so visit ESPN.com and hope that they put it back up.)
The only thing possibly worse than watching a team's best player get his nose broken in the last 15 seconds of a decided game is watching Billy Packer tell us, the viewers - who have a good view and some who can replay at their disposal - the intent of Gerald Henderson (who just about murdered Hansbrough's face). The replays actually show that Henderson could have stopped himself from the vicious elbow when Hansbrough was stripped of the ball. Packer proceeded to deflect all attention away from Henderson and even referred to his flagrant foul and eventual ejection as a "tough break" for Duke.
It'll be a "tough break" for viewers if we have to hear his worthless drivel during the NCAA Tournament. I call on the readers of this blog and beyond to mute Packer (or at least talk over him) so that we don't have to hear him narrating during his frequent hallucations.

Monday, March 05, 2007

Unfinished Business for Bubble Teams

Championship Week is upon us and Selection Sunday is less than six days away. Tonight, we look at forthcoming conference tournaments, and more importantly, the work that bubble teams in these conferences must do to qualify as an at-large team in the field of 65 in 2007. In some conferences, the path ahead is clear-cut, while in others (SEC), seemingly exponential possibilities exist. We could have a semifinal with Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Kentucky OR we could have a semifinal featuring Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Ole Miss, which means anywhere between 4 and 6 bids, and possibly 7 in a carefully concocted perfect storm scenario with bubble teams in other conferences falling by the wayside. It's highly unlikely, but we're here to inform you in case something goes down at The Georgia Dome this weekend.

ACC
Florida State: Win v. Clemson and a strong showing v. North Carolina
Clemson: Win v. Florida State and North Carolina

A-10
Xavier: Get to the A-10 Championship game
UMass: Get to the A-10 Championship game and lose to Xavier in the final + HELP

Big East
Syracuse: Win v. Connecticut
West Virginia: Get to the Big East Championship game
DePaul: Get the Big East Championship game + help

Big Ten
Purdue: Win v. Iowa and a strong showing v. Ohio State
Illinois: Win v. Penn State and Indiana
Michigan State.: Win v. Northwestern

Big XII
Kansas State.: Win v. Texas Tech (a win v. Colorado is useless) and a strong showing v. Kansas + help
Oklahoma State: Get to the Big XII Championship game by defeating Texas A&M and Texas in succession.

Mountain West
Air Force: Win v. Wyoming

Pac-10
Stanford: Strong showing v. USC; a win will secure a bid, no questions asked

SEC
Alabama: Win v. Kentucky and Mississippi State + HELP
Arkansas: Win v. South Carolina and Vanderbilt
Georgia: Win v. Auburn and Florida
Mississippi State: Win v. Kentucky (Alabama win will be of little use) and defeat winner of Vanderbilt v. Arkansas/South Carolina (either Vanderbilt or Arkansas) en route to the SEC championship game
Ole Miss: Win v. Tennessee and Florida en route to the SEC Championship game

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

This week, North Carolina is back in the top 4, knocking out Wisconsin, who needed a late three-pointer by Kammron Taylor to overcome Michigan State at home. The Heels hopped Kansas, who had a big win versus Texas, but only started their comeback following a brief injury to phenom Kevin Durant.

The big shock (to me) is Virginia Tech as a 4 seed. In my opinion, they have nowhere to go but down following their defeat at home to Clemson. They’re riding on their 6-2 record against the top 6 teams (not including them) in the ACC. If they do not impress in Tampa next weekend, they can easily fall to a 7 or 8 seed. In fact, the quality margin between 16 and 28 overall is razor-thin.

In the Valley, Creighton overcame two regular season losses to Southern Illinois by defeating them to take the automatic bid. In the CAA, craziness set forth as George Mason has beaten Hofstra and at-large candidate Old Dominion. Tonight, they seek to complete an improbable sweep of the conference’s top three teams after being 0-5 against these teams in the regular season. The theme of retribution resurfaces as they face off against rival Virginia Commonwealth in Richmond.

One of the most shocking yet little-spoken upsets of the weekend was Arkansas’ victory at Vanderbilt. It catapulted the Razorbacks to the final spot in the field. Clemson and Florida St. also had good weeks, which puts them within reach of an at-large bid. Meanwhile, Drexel remains in the field due to their strong road/neutral court record as well as their quality wins. Losing to VCU in Richmond is no small crime, but Drexel will likely become victim to teams on the outside who surge their way into the tournament.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed

East (4)

South (3)

Midwest (2)

West (1)

1

North Carolina

Florida

Ohio St.

UCLA

2

Kansas

Wisconsin

Texas A&M

Georgetown

3

Washington St.

Maryland

Memphis

Southern Illinois

4

Pittsburgh

Oregon

Tennessee

Virginia Tech

5

Arizona

Marquette

Duke

Vanderbilt

6

UNLV

Nevada

Virginia

Texas

7

Georgia Tech

Louisville

BYU

Kentucky

8

Indiana

Texas Tech

Creighton

Villanova

9

Butler

Xavier

Notre Dame

Michigan St.

10

Winthrop

Air Force

USC

Boston College

11

Syracuse

Missouri St.

Old Dominion

Stanford

12

Virginia Commonwealth

Davidson

Akron

Gonzaga

13

Arkansas

Purdue

Holy Cross

Drexel

14

Pennsylvania

Vermont

Oral Roberts

Long Beach St.

15

Texas A&M - CC

Siena

Belmont

Western Kentucky

16

Weber St.

Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.

Eastern Kentucky

Delaware St.

In: Virginia Commonwealth, Purdue, Arkansas, Texas A&M-CC, Siena, Belmont (in), Eastern Kentucky (in)
Out: Illinois, Georgia, Appalachian St., Sam Houston St., Marist, E. Tennesee St., Austin Peay

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Maryland, Washington St.
4s: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
5s: Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Vanderbilt
6s: UNLV, Nevada, Texas, Virginia
7s: Kentucky, BYU, Louisville, Georgia Tech
8s: Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech, Villanova
9s: Notre Dame, Michigan St., Xavier, Butler
10s: USC, Winthrop, Air Force, Boston College
11s: Syracuse, Stanford, Missouri St., Old Dominion
12s: Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga, Davidson, Akron
13s: Purdue, Drexel, Holy Cross, Arkansas
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Siena, Texas A&M –CC, Belmont
16s: Eastern Kentucky, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Old Dominion, Purdue, Drexel, Arkansas
Last Four Out: Florida St., UMass, Clemson, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Georgia, Kansas St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 3

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Weekend Observations from the R-I-C

Three days down in Richmond….one to go.

The Aeropostale CAA Men’s Basketball Championship will be decided between the 1-seed Virginia Commonwealth University and the 6-seed, last year’s Cinderella-dejour, George Mason.

This isn’t the first time these two have met in the CAA Title game either. Only four years ago, VCU narrowly defeated George Mason for Jeff Capel’s first-and-only CAA Title on a free-throw from Jesse Pellot-Rosa and a narrow miss on a Jai Lewis fadeaway attempt.

So how’d they get here this year?

Friday Observations
Admittedly absent from the day’s action, there were still plenty of reasons to be in attendance at the Richmond Coliseum for each of the four games. Georgia State took down William & Mary after a nail-biting finish which included a 3-point play by the Tribe with less than 5 ticks to go to take a 1-point lead AND then a fumbling-35 foot prayer by the Panthers’ sophomore star Leonard Mendez to win. Northeastern mercifully ended Delaware’s putrid season rather swiftly following the dramatics. In the night-session, expected winners Towson and George Mason took care of pesky opponents UNC-Wilmington & Just Missed UVA. Fortunately, for everyone in attendance, the UNC-Wilmington Seahawk no longer does a 30-second dance to the chorus of N’Sync’s Bye Bye Bye.

Saturday Observations
50% attendance was a better showing for the big guy. VCU sprinted to an early double-digit lead over Georgia State, withstanding one minor run before cruising to a spot in the semi-finals. Drexel wasted little time, riding CAA Defensive Player of the Year Frank Elegar throughout, in dispatching Northeastern. Old Dominion slipped up early with Towson, but held on late for a rather unconvincing 58-55 victory (farewell Gary Neal). George Mason struck their first major upset of the tournament, taking down 3-seed Hofstra behind solid outside shooting and Hofstra’s gunner Aguido being left all alone in the corner for a potential overtime-forcing trey at the buzzer. Not the end to Lenord Stokes' CAA-career he must have envisioned just a few nights earlier.

Sunday Observations
100% attendance. Every second. Boo ya. VCU, despite two offensive fouls for star point guard Eric Maynor in the first four minutes, took an impressive 10-point halftime lead against the rival Dragons. Despite Bruiser’s complaints for excessive contact, VCU’s press dogged the Dragons and aided in a lead inflating to as many as 18 points with 15 minutes to go. Drexel would cut the lead down to as low as 8 as VCU scored a whopping 2 points over the next 10 minutes. However in the end, VCU made enough key shots and BA Walker sunk several free throws to allow the Rams to become the first entrant into Monday Night’s title game. VCU’s press continues to impress, yet their problem with ball-handling, particularly sans-Manor, led to countless turnovers in a sloppy second-half. Drexel’s student section should be commended for a valiant effort, especially following several of Elegar’s monster jams, but were left with thoughts of the NIT lingering, rather than 100% confidence for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Further proof why I believe that Domonic Mejia is the most overrated player the CAA has seen in several years. George Mason stormed the court early and often against the Lady Monarchs, who seemed lazy and unmotivated for the majority of the game. After a 10-2 opening run, aided in large part by early 3s from Dre Smith and Folarin Campbell, Mason never looked back as they cruised to a double-digit lead only five minutes into the game. At no point could ODU trickle the lead closer than 6 , as the Patriots made just enough free throws (Will Thomas was abysmal at times from the ‘charity strip’) to clinch their second upset victory of the tournament. Coach Larranaga should be praised for an outstanding effort, as well as great ball-handling from the duo of Jordan Carter & Gabe Norwood. Folarin Campbell and Will Thomas put together a pair of 3-point plays to seal any last-gasp run from the seemingly overmatched and outworked Monarchs.

So there we have it. Our Aeropostale CAA Men's Basketball Championship game.
#1 VCU vs. #6 George Mason.

A lot of talk has already begun regarding the at-large chances for Drexel and ODU. Both have strong claims, but admittedly took big blows this weekend (especially ODU for their performances in both games). VCU, who is nowhere near a lock to win the title tomorrow night, staked another win against Drexel (both of their wins over the Dragons this year were away from the
Siegel Center) which aided their strengthened at-large claim. Ironically enough, George Mason may yet again sneak into the Big Dance and become a very dangerous out.

Predictions? VCU…will show up. And they’ll win. It might not be pretty, but I seriously wonder if Dre Smith can have a similar outing like he had tonight. What’s the key you ask? It’s got to be two things in my not-so-humble opinion: the ball-handling from George Mason against the VCU press and VCU needing to take an early lead so juniors Michael Anderson and Will Fameni can attempt to keep up with the savvy and tournament-tested Will Thomas. Should be a lot of fun either way. And you know...Clement shall be there.

Friday, March 02, 2007

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 7.1

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place. Additionally, these projections are based on results ending on Thursday night.)

We are now nine days away from Selection Sunday, and half of the top eight teams have lost already this week. The biggest shake-up at the top was North Carolina’s removal from the land of the #1 seeds. At their expense, Wisconsin nipped Kansas for the final 1-seed. Meanwhile, Texas A&M’s overtime loss to Texas gave us enough to alter the projected winner of the Big 12. In short, A&M (AKA Acie Law IV university) didn’t show their normal defensive vigor, and that’s a very bad sign moving forward.

In the ACC, Maryland completed its season sweep of Duke, and now occupy the final 3-seed – a far-cry from being 3-6 in conference and allegations that Gary Williams had forgotten how to coach. Staying in the ACC, Georgia Tech moved one major step closer to safety, as they defeated North Carolina on Thursday night. Despite being the outright regular season leader, UVa lacks the quality road/neutral court wins to garner a higher seed. The ‘Hoos have a lot to gain next weekend in Tampa.

Although I highly doubt that this will hold, Appalachian St. is the final team in the field. Why? Their resume is better than the other teams. The team currently in the field that has to impress me to stay in is Illinois. The majority of their conference wins are against the bottom three teams (Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State), who are just awful. Their measurables (RPI, SOS) are what keeps them in, but something just doesn’t add up about this team except for their solid team defense.

Picking up steam in the national press is recognition of a possible second bid for the Colonial Athletic Association. This is not news to PHSports, as we have projected two bids for the conference since February 12. Narcissism aside, if VCU and Drexel meet in the semifinals, many in the know are now considering this game on Sunday to be worth an at-large bid.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed

East (4)

South (3)

Midwest (2)

West (1)

1

Wisconsin

Florida

Ohio St.

UCLA

2

Kansas

North Carolina

Texas A&M

Georgetown

3

Maryland

Memphis

Pittsburgh

Southern Illinois

4

Oregon

Washington St.

Virginia Tech

Vanderbilt

5

UNLV

Duke

Tennessee

Virginia

6

Nevada

Kentucky

Arizona

Texas

7

Louisville

Marquette

BYU

Indiana

8

Boston College

Michigan St.

Stanford

Texas Tech

9

Xavier

Notre Dame

Butler

Villanova

10

USC

Creighton

Georgia Tech

Air Force

11

Missouri St.

Illinois

Old Dominion

Winthrop

12

Syracuse

Drexel

Appalachian St.

Gonzaga

13

Georgia

Holy Cross

Akron

Davidson

14

Pennsylvania

Vermont

Oral Roberts

Long Beach St.

15

Sam Houston St.

Marist

E. Tennessee St.

Western Kentucky

16

Weber St.

Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.

Austin Peay

Delaware St.

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, Wisconsin
2s: Kansas, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, Memphis, Maryland
4s: Oregon, Virginia Tech, Washington St., Vanderbilt
5s: Virginia, Tennessee, Duke, UNLV
6s: Nevada, Kentucky, Texas, Arizona
7s: Marquette, BYU, Indiana, Louisville
8s: Boston College, Stanford, Michigan St., Texas Tech
9s: USC, Georgia Tech, Villanova, Butler (USC and Georgia Tech were placed on the 10th seed line due to conflict)
10s: Notre Dame, Xavier, Creighton, Air Force (Notre Dame and Xavier are placed on the 9th seed line)
11s: Winthrop, Syracuse, Old Dominion, Missouri St. (Syracuse was placed on the 12th seed line due to conflict)
12s: Illinois, Drexel, Gonzaga, Georgia (Illinois was placed on the 11th seed line and Georgia was placed on the 13th seed line due to conflicts)
13s: Appalachian St., Davidson, Holy Cross, Akron (Appalachian St. was placed on the 12th line due to Georgia’s conflict)
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Marist, Sam Houston St., E. Tennessee St.
16s: Austin Peay, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

In: Appalachian St.
Out: Kansas St.

Last Four In: Illinois, Drexel, Georgia, Appalachian St.
Last Four Out: Alabama, Purdue, Oklahoma St. UMass
Next Four Out: Bradley, VCU, Utah St., Florida St.

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 2
Southern: 2

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Dateline: Richmond, Virginia.

The destination…the Aeropostale CAA Championship from March 2nd to March 5th.

VCU's Anthony Grant hopes to capture
both regular-season and conference titles
during his first year in Richmond.

Seriously, if you can…be there.
This is one of the most underrated conference tournaments going today.

Just about every year, the first-round provides a stunning game on Friday Night. Just about every year, one of the big dogs gets bit by Cinderella…if only for a night. Just about every year, the crowd is packed (with far too many screaming fans from UNC-W). Just about every year, the championship game brings plenty of drama and a deserving champion.

Here’s hoping this year is no different.
So now it’s time to have a ramblin’ man’s ramblin’ preview. -

Let’s take a look at each of the teams, with a quick one-liner.
#1. VCU [24-6, 16-2]
-Easily the surprise of the year in-conference (picked pre-season to finish 6th). While the Bracketbuster-loss to MVC's Bradley may have them desperate for a title-game appearance for an at-large bid (at best), this is a hungry team that loves to run, shoots the deep-ball as well as anyone in the conference, and can hopefully use the Richmond-area advantage to land their first conference title in three years.

#2. Old Dominion [23-7, 15-3]
-As hot as any team in the country, Blaine Taylor’s crew has gotten real physical and must continue to ride captain Drew Williamson, just as they have throughout their recent 11-game winning streak, if they can punch an automatic ticket to the Big Dance. They come into Richmond
as the team to beat, barely.

#3. Hofstra [22-8, 14-4]
-Perhaps a little too under the radar entering Richmond, following one of their best tournament runs in recent memory last year’s (which ended in a CAA Title game defeat to UNC-W), the Pride must ride CAA Player of the Year Loren Stokes (20.8 ppg) to earn their spot in March Madness. The Pride must have the poise and deft shooting touch necessary to control games in the closing minutes for their playmakers to secure close victories.

#4. Drexel [22-7, 13-5]
-A resume that has STACKED road wins [@Cuse,@Vermont,@Villanova] and yet they remain an underdog as a 4-seed. It will be a tough road, but the Dragons are healthy and Mejia is finally starting to sink key shots, after a season I would describe as nothign but hype. Look out for Bruiser’s Dragons though.

#5. Northeastern [12-18,9-9]
-Still getting used to the CAA, a .500-record shows that they played well enough in-conference to be considered trouble in the tournament.

#6. George Mason [15-14, 9-9]
-Never doubt the heart of a champion. 4 Days in Richmond
is all it takes. This is not the type of team you want to face if they start making open shots and start feeling confident in themselves.

#7. Towson [14-16, 8-10]
-Gary Neal is the best ticket in town on Friday night. Despite hitting a few too many lumps early this season, Towson
has started to make solid strides over the past five seasons in CAA-play.

#8. William and Mary [15-14, 8-10]
-Very young and very hard to read. Should be an entertaining team to check out on Friday night…but nothing more.

#9. Georgia State [10-19, 5-13]
-Wow, quite the drop off as of here. Yet, they almost stunned VCU to close the season (losing 70-72). They may get a re-match with the Rams on Saturday afternoon. Might not go nearly as well for them though.

#10. UNC-Wilmington [7-21, 4-14]
-Took a lot more lumps than many expected in a 'transition year'. Nevertheless, this squad won the CAA title last year and is the toughest 10-seed you’re likely to find in a conference tourney this season.

#11. James Madison [7-22, 4-14]
-There’s not much positive to talk about on the basketball court in Harrisonburg
this year (or most years as of late for that matter). Take advantage of Friday night as much as you can against Jorge.

#12. Delaware [5-25, 3-15]
-An absolute embarrassment. Once a legit second-tier team, the Blue Hens were downright abysmal this season and have zero shot to win on Friday night. Zero.

So there we have it. I’ll be there most of the weekend (I attend VCU in case you didn’t already know). Hopefully I'll be enjoying the action much longer than a few others might suppose as a Ram-supporter (in true Clement-fasion, if we lose...I'm out of that Colesium immediately).

Prediction: Old Dominion is a wrecking crew lately. They manhandled Hofstra in Norfolk only a few weeks ago and wore VCU down in a key home-victory over the Rams only a month ago. Nevertheless, their physical style may lead to more than some wear and tear by Monday night. Look for VCU to escape with a narrow victory over Drexel and match up with their big-time rival, OD-Spew, for a classic at 7pm on ESPN for the CAA Title. Who will win? You know its bad luck if you pick your school to…see you Monday night.