Remarks on Super Saturday

We're just minutes away from the Seattle-Chicago kickoff. There was plenty of action yesterday, be it on the gridiron or the college hardwood. It's playoff time, so let's go to the gridiron.

First, Indy's 15-6 victory over Baltimore teaches us all something. No matter who you are, do not open your mouth when it means your season unless you have complete control over the game. Ray Lewis, who had a very good game in his own right (15 tckl, 10 solo), called Indianapolis "soft". Sure, you didn't let Peyton find the endzone, but he didn't need to. Vinatieri is proving to be the second-best free agent signing with a 5-for-5 on field-goal, including a 51-yarder that needed a little love from the crossbar.

Second, the Saints continue to their nauseating story. They're not just a great story, but a very good team. The best free agent signing, Drew Brees, converted on just about every 3rd and long imaginable in the Saints 27-24 win over the Eagles. In true Pay fashion, let me point out a shady turning point when the score was 21-20, Eagles. On 2nd and 20 at around the Eagles 40-yard-line, Brees gets sacked yet the Eagles get flagged for a non-existent (as pointed out by the FOX camera crew and announcers) illegal contact call. Long story short, first down Saints, and they march on in for the touchdown. The Eagles had their chance with 2nd & 1 at the Saints 4, but failed to convert and settled for a field goal.

I'll never understand not going for it on 4th & 15 when your defense is dog-tired and Deuce McAllister is having a career night. This is why I criticize Andy Reid. The cute playaction on 3rd & inches from the Saints 4 is another reason. I can't fault Jim Johnson too much for his inability to get his defense off the field. Tackling was not the best. Lito Sheppard is invaluable to the Eagles and Billy Miller's (who?) domination in the middle of the field is a reminder of the necessary overcommitment of the defensive backs to the speedy Saints WR corps.

Looking back on the season, I'm grateful for what the Eagles were able to muster given their limitations. Jeff Garcia showed a lot of heart. If the Saints put forth a similar effort next week, they will be NFC Champions.

In addition to the football last night, there were plenty of games on the college hardwood. UCLA-USC was a classic matchup. Nick Young getting the four-point play to take the lead, only for Arron Afflalo to get off a picture-perfect release on his jump shot giving the Bruins the one-point victory.

I also want to talk about the upset of #1 North Carolina to the hands of Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Don't let the 94-88 scoreline fool you. This was a drubbing. But I think it will teach the boys at Carolina a few things about humility. When it was 21-13 with Carolina leading,
the bench was all smiles as if they were coasting to victory. Not so. This is the ACC, a major conference. There are no breaks, and especially, in the early season, there are no teams who will just roll over for you. This game taught us a lot about what Tech is bringing to the table in terms of athleticism. The effort from Carolina must be noted, as they demonstrated no quit. Their next game will indicate what lessons were gleaned from this game.

Football Picks [Bound To Go Wrong]
by Chris Clement

Entering the week, I stood at 33-46. So what happened afterwards? 2-2. We all knew the Pats would win, but I wasn't pleased. And it was a lot closer than the score shows. Either way, I'll take the season.

As for this weekend, let's roll!

Indianapolis @ Baltimore (-4)
I love that the Colts finally seem under the radar (go figure) and Baltimore might've been better off without the bye. 3-4 defenses traditionally clamp down on Peyton. Air McNair was brought in for this exact reason -- to win a playoff game for the Ravens. With a pick-6 being the difference, I'll take the Ravens to cover.
Pick: Baltimore [cover]

Philadelphia @ New Orleans (-5)
I love the cover, even with Lito Sheppard out. The Saints are very young (even Brees is 0-1 in the playoffs) and might not deal with the off-week very well. I'm not propping up Andy Reid either, as he's lost to plenty of coaches who seemed outmatched at the time of their playoff matchup. While the story in Nawlins is cute, the Eagles will cover. I'll call the outright upset, as I expect Westbrook to compile 200 yards of amazing offense.
Pick: Philadelphia [outright]

Seattle @ Chicago [-8.5]
Seattle's banged up secondary (Trufant still out) will suffer if Rex can stay calm and use the speed of Berrian and the possession abilities of Muhsin Muhammad and Desmond Clark (an uptapped resource in recent weeks who should be viewed as a safety net). While it's brutal to leave 8.5 points, Seattle should've lost last week. Jeramy Stevens will be covered and Seattle won't get any more turnovers near the redzone like they did last week against Dallas. Devin Hester struggled in the final few games of the year returning punts and kicks. The week off and Charles Tillman back will aid him as much as anyone. This team needed the bye more than any other. Seattle has to score anytime it gets near Chicago territory, and Josh Brown will do his job. Yet, I see Chicago somehow covering in the only ugly game of the week.
Pick: Chicago [cover]

New England @ San Diego [-4.5]
Sure, San Diego has looked like the only sure good thing in the NFL this year. Yet, am I honestly going to pick against Brady (11-1 playoffs) and the coach I don't wish to name anymore (photographer-shover perhaps?)? No. I don't think this is the best matchup for Phillip Rivers. Not to mention, Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk are excellent at picking up blitzes, say from a cheater like Shawne Merriman. While it kills me, the Pats could easily give Marty another home loss as a 1-seed in the divisional playoffs. Diggity damn, I hate to do this...
Pick: New England [outright]

Be on the lookout next week for the championship game picks!

David Beckham to MLS

It is official. David Beckham will be trading in Real Madrid for the LA Galaxy and La Liga for Major League Soccer (MLS). The contract is reported to be a 5-year deal worth $250m, making it the second-largest contract behind A-Rod (10-year, $252m) signed in America. This will make him the highest paid athlete in the United States. Just to put things in perspective, he'll be getting paid $1m per week.

Implications for Beckham
This move came about 2-3 years too early. In the last seven months, Beckham has had somewhat of a fall from grace, as he gave up the England captain's armband. Upon the arrival of new England boss Steve McClaren, Beckham was left out of the England fold, with the boss opting for emerging talent and new leadership. The snowball effect continued for Becks, as his role diminished and form dwindled as the season progressed. These factors, in addition to a rule change altering how much MLS teams can pay top international players, have decided fate for the former England stalwart.

Implications for MLS
As a fan of MLS and a former intern (DC United), I'm kind of scared for the league. Overpaying players who are beyond their prime is exactly the opposite of what a league on a tight budget is supposed to do. Soccer is already becoming a popular sport in parts of the country. It will climb above football and basketball though. As it stands, Beckham will bring short-term appeal and his trademark looks -- not to mention, his gorgeous wife, Victoria.

I thought we were supposed to learn from the folding of the NASL. With that said, I have three recommendations for MLS teams and the league to consider as they move forward.
1) Stop bringing in international players on the decline. Unless you're a MLS team from Los Angeles, take heed to this. I say that because Beckham can be marketed well in LA. $250m well? No.
2) The flipside of the 1st recommendation. Put more money into player development and scouting. When I think of league successes, I think of Brian McBride, Clint Dempsey, Damani Ralph (not American, but groomed through MLS).
3) Change the season schedule in order to align with the major European leagues. I know this depends on being self-sufficient (i.e. having your own stadiums), but it is badly needed.

Class of 2007 NFL Hall of Fame Voting -- CAST YOUR VOTE

Ok, so you really don't get a vote. Today, the NFL published its [17] Class of 2007 finalists for the Hall of Fame (below).

Your job, should you decide to accept it, is to select the players you feel deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.

For more information, visit the Pro Football Hall of Fame website.


Fred Dean - Defensive End - 1975-1981 San Diego Chargers, 1981-1985 San Francisco 49ers
Richard Dent - Defensive End - 1983-1993, 1995 Chicago Bears, 1994 San Francisco 49ers, 1996 Indianapolis Colts, 1997 Philadelphia Eagles
Russ Grimm - Guard - 1981-1991 Washington Redskins
Ray Guy - Punter - 1973-1986 Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders
Gene Hickerson - Guard - 1958-1973 Cleveland Browns
Michael Irvin - Wide Receiver - 1988-1999 Dallas Cowboys
Bob Kuechenberg - Guard - 1970-1984 Miami Dolphins
Bruce Matthews - Guard, Tackle, Center - 1983-2001 Houston Oilers/Tennessee Oilers/Titans
Art Monk - Wide Receiver - 1980-1993 Washington Redskins, 1994 New York Jets, 1995 Philadelphia Eagles
Andre Reed - Wide Receiver - 1985-1999 Buffalo Bills, 2000 Washington Redskins
Charlie Sanders - Tight End - 1968-1977 Detroit Lions
Paul Tagliabue - NFL Commissioner - 1989-2006
Derrick Thomas - Linebacker - 1989-1999 Kansas City Chiefs
Thurman Thomas - Running Back - 1988-1999 Buffalo Bills, 2000 Miami Dolphins
Andre Tippett - Linebacker - 1982-1993 New England Patriots
Roger Wehrli - Cornerback - 1969-1982 St. Louis Cardinals
Gary Zimmerman - Tackle - 1986-1992 Minnesota Vikings, 1993-1997 Denver Broncos

A Night of Shock -- Florida first in history to earn the double

* Even the most homer Gator fan could not predict what unfolded tonight. Florida dominated tonight's game like they dominated no game this season, except for maybe Western Carolina. Florida played like it had a chip on its shoulder and Ohio State played harder in spring practice.

* The 51-day gap between the final game and Bowl game is a joke. Even if this game were played on January 1, it would've still been 44 days between games for Ohio State. Still ridiculous. The only thing more ridiculous is Ohio State's preparation for a national championship game. They look shocked whenever Florida was in spread formation.

Unrelated News
* I can no longer root for DC United out of moral obligation. Go MetroStars!

Weekend Headlines

* And then there were four ... as in, four less teams who will seek the Lombardi Trophy. Home teams win out as Herm fails again, Romo can't be a holder, Belichick outwits Mangini, and say goodbye to Tiki ... and the Giants coaching staff.

* Saturday carried the first big string of upsets among top-10 teams in college basketball. UCLA (@ Oregon), Duke (v. Virginia Tech), Arizona (@ Washington State), and Alabama (@ Arkansas. As of right now, the PAC-10 is showing all indications of being the nation's most balanced and powerful conference -- yes, in that order. Clemson remains the only unbeaten in D-1. North Carolina should be the top team in both polls.

* Louisville fans, you had to see this coming. Bobby Petrino takes reign in Atlanta. According to the PFT Rumor Mill, Atlanta owner Arthur Blank (yes, that guy who's always on the sideline and has a shady 'stache) did not handcuff head coaching job candidates to the idea of having Michael Vick as the starting quarterback. Somewhere, Michael Vick is giving Blank his patented double one-finger salute.

* In somber news, former USC kicker Mario Danelo was found dead this weekend. Foul play is not suspected.

2007 NFL Draft Order and Team Needs

The tentative draft order is in and teams have intensified their evaluation of college football’s finest players. Below, I have laid out the draft order and the team needs. Regarding the team needs, they have been developed using numerous knowledge sources. Undoubtedly, this will serve as a useful resource for mock drafts.

This order will change depending on playoff results. Within a tied segment, non-playoff clubs are given priority over playoff clubs. Priority of playoff clubs within a tied segment will be based on their advancement in the playoffs, but they will not drop out of their tied segment unless they participate in the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl champion will select 32nd and the runner-up 31st.

The NFL Draft will take place on April 28 and April 29.

Pick	Team	Needs
1	Oakland	QB, OT, DT, DE, TE, RB, FB, WR
2	Detroit	OL, CB, MLB, DE, LB, WR, QB
3	Cleveland (x)	OL, DE, NT, CB, RB
3	Tampa Bay (x)	DL, WR, OL, DB, OLB
5	Arizona	LT, FS, OLB, C, CB, FB, DL
6	Washington	DT, CB, OG (elevate if Dockery does not re-sign), DE, OL
7	Minnesota	WR, OG, TE, OT, LB, QB, DT, CB (if Smoot traded/cut)
8	Houston	RB, FS, CB, SLB, DT, OG/C to fit Kubiak cheating system
9	Miami	LT, CB, OLB, DE, MLB, OG, RB, NT, QB (subject to change dramatically after free agency period)
10	Atlanta	DE, DT, DB, QB, TE, OG/C, RB, K, WR
11	San Francisco	34ILB, 34DE, CB, RT, WR, S, NT, WR
12	Buffalo	Tall WR, (CB if Clements does not re-sign), LT, DE, MLB, OG, DT, WR(big)
13	St. Louis	NT, DE, MLB/SLB, CB, FS, OG/C
14	Carolina	MLB, QB, S, OG
15	Pittsburgh	OL, LB, CB, RB, WR, DL
16	Green Bay	RB (if Peterson or Lynch is available), DE, pass-catching TE, CB, (HB if not available in 1st round), WR, DE, S, SLB, OT
17	Jacksonville	FS, DE, OLB, WR, OG/C, RB
18	Cincinnati	DT, OLB, CB, DE, SS, OL
19	Tennessee	RE, CB, FS, WR, OG, MLB
20	NY Giants (y)	CB, S, LT, smaller RB, DT, LB, OL
21	Denver	DE, DT, LT, S, WR, LB
22	Seattle (a, y)	C, LT, TE, S
23	Dallas (y)	RG, WR, NT, LT, 34OLB, CB, TE, QB
24	Kansas City (y)	DT, OT, MLB, WR, OG, CB, QB maybe
25	New Orleans (y)	CB, MLB, DT, OL, QB, WR
26	NY Jets (y)	34NT, 34OLB (edge rusher), RT, RB, RG, 34DE
27	Philadelphia (y)	S, CB, WR (if Stallworth does not re-sign), MLB, big RB, OT
28	New England (y)	34 ILB, CB (esp. if Samuel does not re-sign), SS, WR, C
29	Indianapolis (y)	DT, OLB, OG, DE, OT/QB, RB
30	Chicago (y)	OT, SS, WR (big), CB, TE, DT (elevate if Tank Johnson is cut/traded), OLB, RB
31	Baltimore (y)	OG, RT, QB, DE, RB, CB
32	San Diego (y)	OG, 34ILB, RB, CB, SS, WR, DE

a – 1^st round pick belongs to New England (Deion Branch trade)
x – Subject to coin flip
y – Subject to playoffs

Football Picks [Bound To Go Wrong]
by Chris Clement

Following two positive weeks, we’re struggling after a 5-6 (despite some tough choices). That leaves the record coming into 2007 at a floundering 33-46. Not too impressive.

I am gonna pull rank though and lay out my other BCS projections I forgot to e-mail Pay on time (as I was in Florida visiting my friend known as Anslow). I had Oklahoma covering, USC trouncing Michigan, LSU dismantling Notre Dame, and Louisville sticking it to Wake. No brain surgery there, except I still stand firm that USC is the second-best team in the country. Yes, that means the Gators too. You may say I’m lying, but the $750 I parlayed these picks too (I didn’t put any money on Boise State/Oklahoma as I didn’t know enough about those wacky Broncos…wow, Statue of Liberty to win), and am going to count them. So that would be 3-1 on BCS picks.

It’s NFL Playoff and BCS Title game time! Quick hits with the NFL.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
Larry Johnson can run it 60 times for all I care. Trent Green is in no shape to lead his team with those key half-dozen throws on the road. Manning clinches it in the 4^th (preparing for next week’s CHOKE) and LJ will exit on the stretcher from mere exhaustion after the game ends.
Pick: Colts [cover]

Dallas @ Seattle (-2.5)
Don’t sleep on Seattle at home. But more importantly, don’t sleep on their disastrously depleted secondary. I’ll give the Boys one last pick as Glenn, Witten, and that guy who drops passes left and right will balance well with the running game to squeak by with a hard-fought FG-margin victory.
Pick: Cowboys [outright]

New York Jets @ New England (-8.5)
I don’t pick these games. Not even a cute one-liner this time. Nope.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia (-6.5)
I feel like Garcia is due for a bad game. But he usually saves those for the second round if I remember correctly (remember that Tampa Bay debacle after the miracle comeback over the Giants a few years back in San Fran?). The Giants are a mess and Tiki doesn’t have half of 230 in him, despite a swiss cheese rush D in Philly always lurking to (not) show up. Iggles cruise.
Pick: Eagles [cover]

BCS Title Game:
Florida vs. Ohio State [-7]
I’ve seem spreads from 5 to 10 over the past few weeks. Consensus has shown 6.5 to 7.5 and today it shows an even touchdown. I hate Florida. I don’t care too much for Ohio State. A few years back I rooted for them, but hated them winning on that bogus pass-INT call versus The U. The Buckeyes are clearly the best team in the nation. Florida had better score on their first few possessions to keep this close; otherwise, it’s over before the half. Tressel will get that fat new contract. Buckeyes roll as the Gators are completely outmatched.
Pick: The Ohio State University [cover]

Oh yeah, a few random NFL notes I wanted to tie-in…

Nick Saban is selfish and overrated. Sure, he’s a great coach. But he won’t win a National Title at Alabama. He won’t even play for one. Check this out. He won’t play in an SEC Title game for at least 4 years. Sure, that might be “his” recruiting class and squad, but Alabama won’t recruit those Auburn guys away. Sure, Saban has produced plenty of NFL talent, but Tommy Tuberville has more than a few NFL guys pushing his name. The Tigers (of Auburn and LSU) are still the class of the SEC West. As for Saban, good riddance. Classless handling of this move, $32 million reasons or not.

A ton of coaches have been fired. Falcons needed to move Jim Mora, whose informal marriage to Greg Knapp may cost him another gig for a year or two. Art Shell should be happy this debacle is over. I wouldn’t fire John Gruden, and the Bucs won’t. I would fire Tom Coughlin. Think the Giants can hire a shrink, and not Tony Robbins, to coach this team of high-maintenance, underachieving clowns? Snyder won’t fire Gibbs unless he goes 1-15 next season. Cowher is officially leaving. It’s time. But when he comes back next year, somebody will have to pay the Steelers with costly draft picks. Jeff Fisher was probably fired before he inserted Vince Young into the lineup. Dennis Green was never going to work in Arizona. Nobody will. I could care less about Parcells and TO. Frankly, I wouldn’t mind seeing them both leave for a year.

Eric Mangini is the Coach of the Year. I love what Payton did, but I’m not so sure he revived New Orleans like all of the gushy ESPN guys want to believe. I suppose it bugs me at times when they point to all of the fans in attendance as being ravaged by the storm. Sure it’s a sports generalization, but are these the citizens of Saint Bernard Parrish or of a wealthier suburb that wasn’t hundreds of feet from the levees? I suppose I don’t think football has this much of an impact in this type of a situation. Then again, I’m not there. As for on the field? Sure, nobody saw Colston coming out like that, but that happens. The talk of Brees’ shoulder was there, but any NFL expert would’ve taken him over Pennington going 10-6 this year. Especially with Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn (yes, he was hurt), and an emerging young D-Line over the likes of the Jets offense (we all know about Chad, but Coles also was feeling some big-time heat for underperforming last year). I know I am a Jets die-hard, but Mangini did much more with less in a tougher conference.

Pennington is the right Comeback Player of the Year. LT is an obvious MVP. I would’ve liked to have seen Brees with more than 4 votes (to LT’s 44). Vince is my lock Offensive Rookie of the Year and ditto for DeMeco Ryans (Chicago’s Mark Anderson is an effective specialist, yet still just a pass-rushing specialist) on the defensive side. The NFL needs to make up for that crap-Pro Bowl snub and tab erry Rodes as a 1^st-team all NFL safety -- either alongside B-Dawk or Arizona’s Adrian Wilson. Ed Reed has been solid, but at a second-team level.

I hate Rodney Harrison. Literally. I don’t dislike him a lot or with a passion. I hate him. He hurts other players. He mocks hurting them by believing his fines help pay for people who need help. Suddenly he wants attention and pity when Tennessee’s Bobby Wade (my new hero) make a legal cut-block on him. It’s hateful, but I hope it hurt Rodney. I’ve had worse done to my knees and I can say I hope it hurt. You’re a dirty player and only recently has the karma pendulum swung back to your side. Sure, he’s a phenomenal talent, but I’m glad he’s out for the Jets game and for the remainder of the playoffs. He doesn’t deserve to be on the field as dirty as he is.

Random Blog Note:
Top 5 Songs of the year: [in order]

1) The Diary of Jane [Breaking Benjamin…gets me HYPED!]

2) Stuntin’ Like My Daddy [Birdman feat. Lil’ Wayne…show me my opponent.]

3) Too Little, Too Late [JoJo…yeah, you read that right…it’s HOT!]

4) When You Were Young [Killers…best rock band going these days]

5) Fly High [Jim Jones…terrible song, but come on…BALLIN!

Sounding Off

Former Denver cornerback Darrent Williams

was shot and killed early on the morning of

January 1, 2007. He was 24.

(courtesy: www.denverbroncos.com)

* The passing of Darrent Williams really vexes me to end. I hate guns and the debilitating effect they have on society. Although I’ve never lived in the inner city anywhere, I do recognize guns perpetuate violence rather than quelling it. As spiritual beings living the human experience, we, as a society, have become prey to its toys. Guns represent just one toy in the complex domination of material taking place today, which must be halted by a decisive paradigm shift.

As a man, I don’t see the logic whereby stating that having a piece makes you more of a men. If anything, it’s the opposite way around because the gun is doing the talking and not the man.

Quick Hits
* Did Nick Saban fail in the NFL? While it’s not quite what Dan Le Batard indicates from his rumblings, but Saban did have a losing record in the NFL. He also has a knack for changing jobs frequently. If he stays at Alabama for four years, you can call him Larry Brown. If he stays for all eight years of the $32 million contract and purchases feminine frames for glasses that he may own in the future, you can also call him Larry Brown.

Larry Brown, former coach & supporter of feminine eyewear

(click on the "Larry Brown" link)

(courtesy: www.sportsavengers.com)

* Notre Dame is exactly who we thought they were – one who defeats inferior teams and gets handled by superior teams. Next year is what I’ll call Year 1C for Weis. It’ll be his 3rd with the Fighting Irish, but his first with a majority of the players he recruited.

* On the college hardwood, two key results have occurred over the past two nights. On Tuesday, Texas A&M downed Winthrop by double digits. It was a game that A&M absolutely had to dominate, as the Aggies to win against a quality opponent. Last night, The University [of Virginia] throttled Gonzaga, who must be exhausted be gasping from all the travel. Mr. Jefferson’s squad hit 18 three-pointers and put up a 60-spot in the first stanza. For those keeping score at home, one more bad game from Josh Heytvelt and I'll go back to calling him "Shite-velt".

Statue of Liberty Gives Boise State Some Measure of Justice

Ian Johnson converts the game-winning 2-point

conversion on the "Statue of Liberty" play
Courtesy: Matt York/AP

Before this season, no one gave Boise State (13-0) a chance. Now, people, including myself, may want to revisit that belief after their 43-42 overtime victory over favored Oklahoma.

With that said, how much credibility does this give schools from non-BCS conferences who put together similar seasons?

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 1.0

First off, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year. A new year signifies the dawning of a new age and resolutions made for self-improvement. In the lexicon of this blog, it means beginning the tendencies of basketball teams seeking the most grand college basketball prize: the national championship.

Projecting the NCAA field is a very inexact science. As we slowly reach Selection Sunday, the process becomes more scientific as the evidence builds. In past years, the initial projection has taken place on the Monday (as of Sunday’s results) closest to the New Year. Then, the field is projected once every two weeks in January and once per week in February and beyond. Overall, I have found this method to be most useful, and hope that you do as well.

So, without further adieu, enjoy a very early and partially-informed NCAA tournament projection as we enter the conference season.

Seed	East	South	Midwest	West
1	UNC	Florida	Arizona	UCLA
2	Wisconsin	Ohio State	Kansas	Oklahoma State
3	Pittsburgh	Duke	Alabama	Butler
4	Tennessee	Oregon	Notre Dame	Air Force
5	Texas A&M	UNLV	Clemson	Nevada
6	Gonzaga	Wichita State	Michigan State	Marquette
7	Drexel	Winthrop	Memphis	Southern Illinois
8	Washington	West Virginia	Northern Iowa	LSU
9	Appalachian St.	Georgia Tech	Kentucky	FSU
10	Missouri State	Texas	Georgetown	Washington State
11	Maryland	Arkansas	USC	Indiana
12	Illinois	DePaul	Missouri	Syracuse
13	St. Louis	W.Kentucky	Ohio	Kansas State
14	Marist	Vermont	Texas A&M-CC	UC-Santa Barbara
15	Bucknell	Lipscomb	Samford	Southern Utah
16	Sacred Heart	Princeton	Jackson St./Howard	Weber State

Last Four In: Syracuse, Illinois, DePaul, Kansas State
Last Four Out: Creighton, Villanova, UConn, Boston College
Next Four Out: Xavier, Purdue, San Diego State, Hawaii

Summary
Big East: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 6
Big Ten: 5
MVC: 4
MWC: 2

New Year's Day and BCS Bowl Breakdown
by Matt Carroll

It's the most wonderful time of the year, as Capital One and ESPN have made sure we remember every 10 minutes with their incessant bowl commercials. And that means the conclusion of yet another fantastic college football season filled with surprises (Rutgers, Wake Forest, Arkansas), disappointments (Iowa, Florida State, Miami), highlights (Boston College K Steve Aponavicius walking on and becoming a star, Clemson DB Ray Ray McElrathbey personifying what a role model should be and lowlights (the Miami-FIU brawl, the murder of Miami DE Bryan Pata, the stabbing of the starting University of Northern Colorado kicker by his back-up, yet another mess produced by the BCS).

And now a look at the top bowl games to finish off the year.

The Best Non-BCS Bowl Game: The Capital One Bowl -- Wisconsin vs. Arkansas
If you love to see smashmouth football then this is your game. Both sides have fantastic rushing attacks and can play solid D. Arkansas has the best RB in the nation in Darren McFadden. He has an excellent combination of speed and size that makes him hard to tackle, provided that you can catch up to him first. He will undoubtedly be the preseason Heisman favorite for 2007. They have another great RB in Felix Jones which enables them to run a variety of formations. Expect to see them use their Wildcat formation where they will spread out the defense and line up McFadden at QB with Jones at his side. That formation was extremely effective against a talented LSU defense at the end of the season.

Amidst the controversy of the Michigan/Florida debate, another BCS flaw was shown this season by the Badgers. Wisconsin finished the season 11-1 and ranked #7 in the BCS, but were denied a BCS bid because of a rule that states no more than two teams from the same conference can receive a BCS bid. With Ohio State and Michigan already receiving bids, Wisconsin had the door slammed in their face. Critics would rightfully point out that Wisconsin's schedule was not the strongest, but compare their schedule and results with Notre Dame and you will see that they certainly would have deserved it over the Irish. Wisconsin has a fantastic freshman RB in P.J. Hill and he has All-American OT Joe Thomas to run behind. They also have a solid QB in John Stocco who played a fabulous season with a different receiving corps. Watching P.J. Hill will definitely remind Badger fans of Ron Dayne, except he is quicker.

Prediction: Arkansas, 27-24

The Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. USC
With the depth of young talent in this game it appears that this will be 2007 Preseason #1 vs. 2007 Preseason #2. Who will be #1 will be decided by the outcome. Both of these teams are coming off a season-ending loss, which will make it exciting to see how the teams respond. Michigan has a very balanced offense that is nearly unstoppable when RB Mike Hart is able to run the ball. Once Hart is running effectively, it opens up the playbook for QB Chad Henne's great play action to get the ball downfield to deep threat (and healthy) WR Mario Manningham, as well as Adrian Arrington.

If USC had trouble protecting QB John David Booty against UCLA, then they are in for a long afternoon with the Michigan front 7. Look for DC Ron English to take a page out of Karl Dorrell's book and try to put some pressure on Booty in the pocket. If Michigan's D is unable to do that then you will see some big passing plays as a result. USC has a phenomenal receiving corps with Dwayne Jarrett, Steve Smith and Patrick Turner. Michigan has an All-American cover corner in Leon Hall, but beyond that the secondary is quite suspect. If Booty gets the time to let these receivers run their routes then USC will have a lot of big yardage plays.

Prediction: Michigan 38-31

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Oklahoma
All hail the return of Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson. Bob Stoops has done a tremendous job of getting this team into a BCS bowl and now he gets to add Peterson to the mix. QB Paul Thompson has really improved as the season has passed and manages the game very well with a 60%+ completion percentage. The emergence of WR Malcolm Kelly will really help take the heat off of Adrian Peterson during the game and he is peaking at just the right time. Kelly has had 100+ yard receiving games in 3 of his last 4 games and he is a downfield threat with his 6'4" height.

RB Ian Johnson is one of the best stories of the year. He was hospitalized at the end of the year for treatment of a partially collapsed left lung. He missed a grand total of one game before he returned to the lineup for the last game of the season at Nevada. How did he do? He ran for 147 yards and scored 3 TDs to finish on top of the NCAA with 24 total TD's. He is the man that gets the Boise State offense moving and really enables Jared Zabransky to spread the ball around to his wideouts.

Prediction: Boise State, 28-24

Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Wake Forest
I have been a fan of Louisville since the start of the season, and were it not for a 2nd half in Piscataway, NJ they would have been playing for the BCS championship. They have a great QB in Brian Brohm who has two solid weapons in WR's Mario Urrutia and Harry Douglas. Urrutia is 6'6", which makes it very hard for any team to match up against him. Look for them to pass early and often in this game to take advantage of their speed.

Coach of the Year Jim Grobe brings the Demon Deacons into the BCS. This team has relied on good defense to win their games and it is the only way they are going to beat Louisville. They do not have a lot of firepower on offense and they have to take care of the ball to keep their defense out of bad situations. Look for Wake Forest to try to establish the running game to keep the ball out out of the hands of the Louisville offense. Unfortunately, Louisville should not have much trouble scoring when they do get the ball. I think Louisville will win this one handily.

Prediction: Louisville, 38-17.

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Notre Dame
LSU has a very fast defense which will only be quicker on the turf of the Superdome. They have a front 7 that can really put pressure on the QB in the same way that Michigan did at the beginning of the season. They have a fantastic safety as well in LaRon Landry who should be able to limit the big play potential of Notre Dame WRs Jeff Samardzija and Rhema McKnight.

JaMarcus Russell has the opportunity to have a fabulous game in his final game as a Tiger. The Notre Dame secondary was torched against Michigan, USC, and Michigan State, and Russell has a big play WR in Dwayne Bowe that can exploit that weakness. The fact that this game will be returning to New Orleans will not help Notre Dame either.

Prediction: LSU, 31-14.

BCS National Championship: Ohio State vs. Florida
Ohio State has been the undisputed #1 team in the nation from wire to wire. It seems like the only thing that could hold them back is the rust of not playing for almost two months. They have the Heisman winner QB Troy Smith. They have big play WRs in Ted Ginn, Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez. They have two solid RBs in Antonio Pittman and true freshman Chris Wells. They have a solid defense that thrives on turnovers.

The Florida defense will be mightily tested by the OSU offense. They can attack with the deep pass, the intermediate pass, the ground attack, the Troy Smith attack. A lot of talk has been given to the "speed" of the Florida defense, but OSU's offense can match their speed stride for stride, and they have perhaps the fastest player in the game in Ted Ginn. Florida has a fantastic safety in Reggie Nelson and he needs to have a big game keeping the quick OSU WRs in front of him to avoid their big play capability.

The Florida offense is versatile as well, especially considering how well they have employed the 2 QB tandem of Chris Leak and true freshman Tim Tebow. Leak is a better general on the field, but Tebow gives an added dimension of hard-nosed running in short yardage situations. Their different styles of play will be an advantage for Florida in keeping the OSU defense on their toes. They will rely on their passing attack to spread the defense out and keep them from being overly aggressive with their blitz. DeShawn Wynn could have trouble establishing himself as a factor in this game against the front line led by DT Quinn Pitcock and MLB James Laurinaitis.

Prediction: Ohio State, 35-24.