NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 5.0

We are firmly into February and the RPI rankings officially matter. They matter enough to have the top 36 teams according to the RPI included in this edition of the projections. Arkansas, currently 37^th, was edged out for the final at-large spot by Maryland, who had a good week despite splitting home games versus Virginia and Duke.

Meanwhile, Purdue and Old Dominion see themselves in right now as a result of cataclysmic weeks for Texas Tech (two losses, including at home to Nebraska), New Mexico St. (two losses), and Northern Iowa (three losses, including two to RPI sub-100 teams). In Morgantown, West Virginia finally got the signature victory (versus UCLA) they needed to cement their status as an at-large team.

In the Valley, Southern Illinois completed the season sweep of Creighton while Bradley and Wichita St. seek to make a late surge. Out west, UCLA remains a one-seed after its loss to the Mountaineers, but has Ohio State and Texas A&M on its tail.

Lastly, you are a team that’s 10-3 (21-4 overall) in a top 3 conference. In your losses, two of which were in overtime, you have lost by a total of 8 points. You are 8-2 in your last ten games and have a better road record than almost all teams on seed lines below you. This team is Washington St., and that’s why I have them as a 3 seed.

If you have any questions to be answered in Tuesday’s NCAA Bracket-Related Questions, either send a comment or shoot me an email (phashemi@gmail.com).

Seed	East	South	Midwest	West
1	North Carolina	Florida	Wisconsin	UCLA
2	Pittsburgh	Kansas	Texas A&M	Ohio St.
3	Washington St.	Memphis	Marquette	Southern Illinois
4	Kentucky	Indiana	USC	Georgetown
5	Butler	Arizona	Boston College	Nevada
6	Air Force	Virginia	Creighton	Oregon
7	Virginia Tech	Missouri St.	Vanderbilt	Duke
8	Villanova	Clemson	West Virginia	Oklahoma St.
9	Kansas St.	UNLV	Xavier	Tennessee
10	Georgia	Stanford	BYU	Gonzaga
11	VCU	Alabama	Florida St.	Notre Dame
12	Purdue	Winthrop	Texas	Old Dominion
13	Holy Cross	Davidson	Akron	Maryland
14	Pennsylvania	Texas A&M – Corpus Christi	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Vermont	South Alabama	Marist	Austin Peay
16	Delaware St.	Miss. Valley St./Central Connecticut St.	E. Tennessee St.	Weber St.

Last Four In: Texas, Old Dominion, Purdue, Maryland
Last Four Out: Arkansas, Illinois, Appalachian St., Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Drexel, Texas Tech, Wichita St.

IN: West Virginia, Tennessee, Old Dominion, Purdue, Maryland, Davidson, Miss. Valley St.
OUT: Texas Tech, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, New Mexico St., Appalachian St., Jackson St.

Summary
ACC: 8
Big East: 6
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
Big Ten: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 2

Applying The NCAA Tournament Selection Manifesto

Nearly three weeks of basketball has been played since my tournament selection manifesto was written on January 22 and we're beginning to see trends develop amongst teams.

The Criteria

1. Conference RPI. This statistic has been neglected by a lot of bracketologists who continue to give seven bids to a fledgling Big East conference based on previous success. Let's hope the tournament selection committee is privied to such statistics.
2. An average of RPI and Pomeroy rankings. Through prior practice, I've seen that an average of the two, albeit imperfect, resembles the closest thing to my "eye test" rankings.
3. Conference Record. Ultimately, this depends on what conference you’re in. Are you going to select a < .500 team from a conference with a RPI between 4 and 7 or are you going to select
4. Big Wins. Signature wins speak for themselves. A 7-4 record with no wins of note means very little even when in a power conference. West Virginia can afford a bad game in conference after they defeated UCLA, assuming that the Bruins sustain their high ranking.
5. The Eye Test. This comes down to game tape and how much you can watch. Admittedly, I'm an East Coast guy, but I get my fair share of the Pac-10 thanks to FoxSportsNet's coverage. This is still very dangerous, as teams (e.g. Purdue yesterday @ Ohio State) can gain sympathy points in the eyes of bracketologists despite letting a late lead slip.
6. Bad Losses. In addition to losses against bad teams (especially against RPI sub-150 teams), I take into account margin of defeat. If a team consistently loses big when it succumbs to defeat, I will pay less attention to the RPI ranking.
7. Injuries/Suspensions. The indefinite suspension of Josh Heytvelt looms large for Gonzaga's at-large hopes should they not earn the automatic bid in the West Coast Conference. However, we shouldn't assume that Gonzaga's level of play will drop. Just a few weeks ago, many of us thought Boston College was left for dead when Al Skinner dismissed shot-altering center Sean Williams from the team.
8. Away Wins. I cannot emphasize this enough. Nothing tests character more than how a team performs in enemy territory. In the case of a road split, the team with the win closest to the tournament wins roughly 60% of the spoils. A great example of this is Arizona's redemption in Eugene.
   

Jerrah Takes a Plunge While Wade-ing
by Armin Mohajeri

Yesterday afternoon the Dallas Cowboys announced former San Diego Chargers defensive coordinator Wade Phillips as their new head coach. The seventh head coach in the Cowboys storied history. Phillips has significant head coaching experience. He was the interim head coach with the New Orleans Saints, taking the reigns for his father Bum Phillips in 1985. He preceded Mike Shanahan as head coach of the Denver Broncos from 1993-1994. He was hired as the head coach of the Buffalo Bills after Marv Levy retired, holding that job from 1998-2000, where he had his most success. In 2003, the Atlanta Falcons named him interim head coach. While Phillips was successful with the Chargers defense last year and was deserving of a head-coaching gig, the hiring brings about many other questions.

Why is it when a sports team hires a new coach, he is usually the polar opposite of the previous coach? Tuna is a tough guy. He does not hold back when addressing the team or individual players. Wade Phillips is a players coach. He is one of the guys, much less authoritarian than Tuna. We saw a perfect example in the press conference. Where Tuna referred to T.O. as “The Player”, Phillips had no problem referring to T.O. by name. However, this hiring has a Switzer-ish flavor to it. Jerrah is taking control again.

In my first bit regarding the Cowboys coaching search, I pegged Phillips as the most logical choice. However, in the back of my mind, I have been thinking that the most logical choice for Jerrah Jones is…well…Jerrah Jones. This hiring may cement that thought. My thoughts, as ridiculous as I felt they were at the time, were that Jerrah would hire strong offensive and defensive coordinators, and name himself as the head coach. Joe Gibbs has a similar philosophy as the CEO among several strong coaches, though he is a little more hands-on than Jerrah would be. Is “Head Coach” just a title for Wade Phillips? Reports of a low-ball salary offer lead me to believe that it is only a title. We will see if Jerrah is man enough to fire himself if the Cowboys underachieve.

In other news…

Rumors surrounding Bucs coach Jon Gruden say that he is eyeing the Philly job, in case Andy Reid steps down.

Unconfirmed rumors continue to swirl regarding the Vikings possibly trying to trade for Larry Fitzgerald of the Arizona Cardinals.

Trying to get the proverbial monkey off his back, Tony Romo asked to be the holder in the pro bowl.

College Football Recruiting Special - Part I
by Matt Carroll

Signing Day is one of the most exciting days of the year for any College Football fan, especially those that know that next year always begins on January 2nd (or thanks to the BCS, January 9th). This day signifies the end of the College Football recruiting period. All of the letters, the calls, the e-mails, the text messages, the official visits, the unofficial visits, the coaches visits, the in-house visits, the coach-to-coach visits, all end on this day. It can be a lot to handle for a kid when he's only 16 or 17 years old.

Perfect evidence of this is Safety recruit Jerimy Finch. Finch committed to the University of Michigan on May 11, 2006. His committment was solid for 7 months until he decided to take an official visit on January 12, 2007 to Indiana University, his home state school. On January 14, he announced that he was de-committing from Michigan, and committing to Indiana. Two weeks later he announced that he was 50-50 between Michigan and Indiana. So yesterday he decided that he would attend ... The University of Florida.

This brings me to my one caveat: Recruiting is an imperfect science, for many reasons. There are a variety of factors that go into establishing who are the top recruits. Their size, their athleticism, their speed, their injury status, their HS performance and their HS pedigree. But the one thing that it is all based on is potential. These are the players that have the raw talent to become the best of the best, both in College Football and beyond.

But it takes hard work and great coaching to develop these student-athletes into the players that they are expected to become. Unlike College Basketball, the top College Football recruits are not always expected to make immediate impacts, especially in the case of top-tier programs. Oftentimes the top recruits for one recruiting class are not heard of until their Sophomore and Junior years of eligibility. With that in mind, I present the top 5 players whose names will be known by the end of their college careers (and in some cases, by this fall):



1) DE Everson Griffen - Avondale, AZ - Committed to USC:
This kid has the talent to play right away for USC, and that is saying a lot when you look at the talent on USC's defensive line. He already has the perfect build at 6'4", 265 pounds. Oh, and he can run the 40 in 4.55 seconds. He has incredible speed and agility coming off the edge and has more than enough power to disrupt the backfield as soon as he gets there. He was nicknamed "The Freak" when he attended the 2005 summer camp at The University of Arizona. He played against the best of the best in high school football in the Army All-American game last month, where he consistently rushed the backfield and forced the play to one side of the field.


2) DT Marvin Austin - Washington, D.C. - Committed to UNC:
This player is the Signing Day highlight among a few extremely talented players for new Head Coach Butch Davis. He already has the size at 6'3", 300 pounds. This kid had 30+ offers around the country. Name a big-time program and this kid had an offer from them. He has the power and athleticism to dominate the middle of the line and will start immediately for the Tar Heels. The fun thing about this student-athlete is his personality. Not only does he look and play similar to Warren Sapp, he acts (and jokes) like him, too.


3) QB Ryan Mallett - Texarkana, TX -
Committed to Michigan:
It is impossible to look at Mallett and not notice his presence. He is over 6'6" and reportedly weighs between 225 and 240 pounds. He has a rocket of an arm, both in terms of distance and velocity. Add his phenomenal accuracy to those attributes and this student-athlete should be fearsome in years to come. He has played against some of the top HS talent in the state of Texas, so he is game ready. Another positive is his natural leadership skills.


4) WR Arrelious Benn - Washington, D.C. - Committed to Illinois:
Ron Zook has proven once again that he is a master recruiter. Benn is a fantastic WR that has great size and body control. He will become an immediate impact player for the Fighting Illini, and QB Juice Williams has to love that. He has fantastic moves once the ball in his hand which enables him to get a lot of YAC.




5) CB Eric Berry - Fairburn, GA -
Committed to Tennessee:
Speed, speed, speed. Eric Berry has been clocked at a 4.35 second 40-yard dash. He has incredible speed, burst, and agility which should make him a fantastic CB at the college level. It would not be surprising to see him return kicks and play some WR as well. He is the kind of player that could have an immediate impact at Tennessee and he has the versatility to be used in a variety of ways on the field.


Noteworthy player to watch out for:

RB Noel Devine - North Fort Myers, FL:

This player has just as much speed as Berry, plus the moves to go along with it. He had a very long kick return in the Army All-American game. Devine is uncommitted right now because it is still TBD whether or not he will be academically qualified to play next season. He may have to play a year of prep school to qualify, but if he is able to do so this semester there is a lot of interest in him from West Virginia and Florida State. If he is able to attend school next year, he would be a great fit in the West Virginia offense and could very well be the next Steve Slaton.

In Part II I will give a capsule of the top 5 recruiting classes of the year, and also highlight some of the surprises that came about during the recruiting season.

All images are credited to Scout.com.

UNC-Duke I: The Recap

While I am well aware of the other games on last night's college basketball slate, no single game was bigger than North Carolina at Duke. And that's not just for fans of either team, but for the majority of the college basketball nation.

Prior to the game, I had written some notes leading up to the game but did not have the time to post until late in the business day; therefore, I only disseminated the notes to a group of people.

PRE-GAME NOTES ABOUT UNC @ DUKE (in italics)
In the first of two meetings, the Blue Devils host North Carolina in what must be a must-win games for both teams after being on the business end of defeats over the weekend.

1. For North Carolina, the key is to place pressure on Duke's ball handlers and score in the open court.
- This did not happen for more than a half and Duke capitalized as a result.

2. On the other side, Duke must frustrate sophomore phenom Tyler Hansbrough in addition to avoiding scoring droughts.
- First, Duke frustrated the heck out of Hansbrough with Brian Zoubek on the defensive end. Zoubek's energy and ability to annoy Hansbrough set the tone for Duke taking a comfortable 1st half lead.
- Second, Duke's scoring woes have been documented. One major scoring drought that lasted longer than 5 minutes allowed Carolina to steadily chop at the lead and eventually overtake the Blue Devils.

3. Look for Duke to find an additional scoring valve early on and to find open shots for Scheyer and Nelson.
- Scheyer had a career night (26 points on 8-for-18 shooting) and anyone following Carolina knows that they cannot cover the perimeter at all. Nelson and Henderson also got some great looks, especially for Henderson in the early going.

4. Team Stat Pack: Duke has scored 70 or more in 3 of 9 ACC games this season (3-0). Conversely, Duke has only given up 70 or more points on three occasions all season (1-2). UNC averages 88.1 ppg and has been held under 70 just once (69 points @ St. Louis).

- This was the proverbial "something's gotta give it" matchup with two teams excelling at opposite sides of the ball. It always seemed like this would be played with the winner reaching the 70-point mark.

POST GAME REMARKS
Of course, you're going to hear from the real media that Duke "played their hearts out" and that "they are running on fumes" by the end of the game. Both points are mostly true. Duke played with heart for 40 minutes and most of their players were running on fumes by game's end. In my opinion, Duke's gameplan was flawed. Why would a 7-deep team try to play up-tempo against a quicker, more talented team that can go 11 or 12 players deep? From a basketball approach, this makes zero sense. I won't even comment on McRoberts' and Zoubek's hideous footwork on the offensive interior (thanks, Wojo). I guess I just did.

As for Carolina, they are lucky that Duke missed shots whenever the lead reached double digits. I expected more out of the gate from the Tar Heels following an embarrassing loss to NC State. If Roy is a good coach, he will have his talented group of youngsters sit through the following games to avoid complacency leading up to the one n' done tournament: Kansas/Arizona (1997), George Mason/Connecticut (2006), and UNLV/Duke (1991). All are painful defeats, yet all are invaluable lessons in humility that will better equip Carolina for future battles.

NFL Thoughts (2/6/07)
by Armin Mohajeri

1) Many in Philly believe Andy Reid may take a leave of absence after his two sons had altercations with the law. Phil Anastasia of the Courier Post makes a great point in his article today when he says Andy Reid would be a huge loss to the Eagles. Marty Mornhinweg and Jim Johnson are the offensive and defensive coordinators, respectively. Neither has good, nor extensive head coaching backgrounds. Furthermore, Reid is more like the team's CEO, as he has become more involved over the years with personnel matters and operations. Nobody would fault Reid if he took a leave of absence. However, the team could be in a difficult situation if he did.

2) Signs are pointing to the Cowboys signing Ron Rivera as the defensive coordinator, and Norv Turner as the head coach. ProFootballTalk makes an interesting point, which I neglected in my previous bit about the next Cowboys head coach. Rivera runs the Cover 2, which only needs one stud linebacker and a good linebacker to make a majority of the plays from the linebacker position (e.g. Derrick Brooks & Shelton Quarles). The Cowboys are so deeply invested at linebacker, that (assuming all players will return) position changes are required to switch from a 3-4 to a Cover 2. Marcus Spears and possibly Chris Canty would have to move inside with Greg Ellis manning one DE spot. Akin Ayodele may have to switch back to his college position of DE. DeMarcus Ware and Bradie James would have to be the top linebackers. It looks good on paper. However, multiple position changes make for a difficult transition. This is why Mike Singletary makes a little more sense as the defensive coordinator, as he has experience with the 3-4.

3) According to the Houston Chronicle, David Carr could be done with the Texans. Quotes from Texans owner Bob McNair touch on Carr's inconsistency and the fact that the team needs help at the position. Jake Plummer could be a target, once released by the Broncos, especially with Kubiak's familiarity with the former starter. However, Plummer is not your prime example of consistency. McNair also mentioned that if they bring in the right players at certain positions, the team would be open to taking a cap hit from dropping players on the current roster at those positions.

NCAA Bracket-Related Questions

Kevin Durant: Is his magical play creating an illusion with regard to Texas' resume?

(courtesy: www.texassports.com)

Today's edition of the NCAA Tournament Bracket-related questions addresses the most pressing questions with respect to yesterday's bracket projections. It also examines surprising underachievement from a trio of marquee coaches.

Q: Which of your current 12 seeds would you bet on most to beat a 5?

A: It's a flip of the coin between Appalachian St. and Winthrop, but the nod would have to go to Winthrop. Just look at their non-conference schedule. They are afraid of no one and will play anyone on any court. They took one #1 seed to the wire (North Carolina) and another to overtime (Wisconsin).

Q: You have Southern Illinois as a 3. Who have they beaten to deserve that?

A: I guess I'm guilty of the RPI bug. Coming into Monday's action, SIU had a share (Creighton) of the Missouri Valley (5th-rated conference according to the RPI) with a 10-3 record. Their RPI is a sizzling 9 and their strength-of-schedule is 31st. I understand that their best wins are within the Valley, but the MVC is better than the Big East this season and has much more parity than the Big East and Big Ten. Lately, the Salukis have smothered teams, holding their last two opponents under 50. This week, SIU has home bouts versus Bradley and Creighton, both of whom are currently in the RPI Top 50.

Q: Why do you spit so much venom in Duke's direction?

A: This is a multi-part answer. First, let's get my bias out of the way. I'm a North Carolina fan and have been one since I started following college basketball twenty years ago. Second, the media is Duke-driven. ESPN's top color commentator has a well-known nickname (Dukie V) and the rising star at ESPN (Jay "Duke Boy" Bilas) was a player and assistant under Coach K. Third, if you take the name out of this year's resume, as we speak, Duke may be grazing the 6 or 7 line. Right now, they're a team that cannot score points, and that makes you susceptible against all teams.

Q: Who are your 3 worst coaches among those who have won a national title?

A: My first spot goes to Jim Boeheim. I know, he lost his leader in G-Mac, but their current showing is ridiculous. The Carrier Dome advantage is a joke this season. I know that I don't know the whole story, but I know enough to tell this one.

My second spot goes to Coach K. If Dick Vitale wasn't such a Dukie, he would say "Coach K has been bad with a capital 'B', baby!" Instead, we have to hear about his split duties between coaching Team USA and Duke. Mike D'Antoni seems to be doing just fine. The point is, Duke gets top 50 recruits every year and any time that any of them produce, K is a mastermind in the eyes of everyone with a microphone near them. McRoberts would've been far more developed by now and a bona fide star anywhere else, save the NBA. They fear saying that he might be 4-5 in the conference with marquee players if the referees had paid attention to the game versus Clemson (there were other bad calls in addition to the clock problem).

My third spot goes to Lute Olsen. He's a god in Tucson and their fans are brainwashed. The fact of the matter is that a team with this type of talent should not be reeling at 6-5 in conference play and be beaten by 28 on its home floor by anyone. Olsen, who is starting to receive criticism, has failed to develop any semblance of a bench and this has placed a heavier burden on the starting five.

Q: You have Texas as the last team in the field. Why aren't they higher?

A: I think the cream will rise to the top eventually. Even if it doesn't, the selection committee will do all in its power to have Kevin Durant play for at least one round. Right now, as a basketball team, they're an optical illusion in the eyes of many bracketologists. Their best wins are versus Arkansas and at Texas Tech. Their win against LSU on a neutral court was once strong, but that victory has gone tumbling down in value almost as fast as the Tigers' prestige. Texas should gather more signature wins, but at present, they are the 6th-best team in what should be no more than a five-bid league.

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 4.0

I’m not in the boat that likes to think a lot can change in a week. Last year, Syracuse plowed through the competition in the four-day Big East tournament and went from being a NIT participant to a 5-seed in the NCAAs. I rendered this ridiculous and had a feeling that Texas A&M had a good shot at an upset. I mention this because Virginia Tech dropped six seeds and Florida St. went up seven in the matter of a week. First, let’s talk about VT’s horrific week. Two double-digits losses and was at home to NC St. Even worse, among their two signatures, those teams (Duke, UNC) collected 3 losses this week. With regard to FSU, they are just rolling, and it culminated with a win at Cameron.

Two one-seeds, North Carolina and Wisconsin, lost and kept their high seeding as a result of two major factors – (1) their relative strength to the two-seeds and beyond and (2) their conference strength relative to other teams.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M gathered the biggest win of the week and of Billy Gillespie’s Aggie reign at Fogg Allen Fieldhouse. Acie Law IV may just be one of the best closers in recent years. Sometimes, I think Bill Self is trying to get fired. Saturday night was one of those nights.

Oregon also had a rough week with losses at UCLA and USC (who get no love from other bracketologists), which knocked them down two seeds. WASU’s road sweep in the desert allayed fears of a letdown following the Oregon game last Saturday.

In other news, while I rate Virginia Commonwealth rather highly, they should only be a 10 seed, as I struggled to avoid seeding conflicts with power conference teams.

If you have any questions to be answered in Tuesday’s NCAA Bracket-Related Questions, either send a comment or shoot me an email (phashemi@gmail.com).

Seed	East	South	Midwest	West
1	North Carolina	Florida	Wisconsin	UCLA
2	Pittsburgh	Marquette	Texas A&M	Ohio St.
3	Kansas	Memphis	USC	Southern Illinois
4	Washington St.	Oregon	Kentucky	Air Force
5	Indiana	Duke	Butler	Vanderbilt
6	Florida St.	Creighton	Nevada	Virginia
7	Stanford	Oklahoma St.	Georgetown	Gonzaga
8	Kansas St.	Texas Tech	Boston College	Notre Dame
9	VCU	Villanova	Arizona	Missouri St.
10	Alabama	Clemson	Virginia Tech	UNLV
11	Northern Iowa	Illinois	BYU	Arkansas
12	Georgia	Winthrop	Appalachian St.	Xavier
13	Holy Cross	New Mexico St.	Akron	Texas
14	Pennsylvania	Texas A&M – Corpus Christi	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Vermont	E. Tennessee St.	Marist	South Alabama
16	Delaware St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Austin Peay	Weber St.

Last Four In: BYU, Georgia, New Mexico St., Texas
Last Four Out: Tennessee, West Virginia, Michigan St., Old Dominion
Next Four Out: Maryland, Hofstra, Louisville, Bradley

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 6
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 6
Big Ten: 4
Missouri Valley: 4
Mountain West: 3
Western Athletic: 2

PHSports Super Bowl Predictions

We are no longer days, but hours from Super Bowl XLI. The anticipation must be just plain brutal for anyone supporting either of the two participants. After being fed a plethora of information, mostly useless from the exhaustive coverage of Super Week, the contributors of PHSports are doing exactly what everyone else is doing ... yes, we are predicting the Super Bowl!

Super Bowl XLI:
Chicago vs. Indianapolis (-7)

Clement
The Bears have a strong recipe to win. They run well up the middle, have solid slot guys, and can push the Colts corners into single coverage with an amazing, roaming set of linebackers. Addai and Rhodes will 125+ on the ground to keep the pressure off of Manning. In the end, it's all about the defensive lines' ability to fluster the opposing QB and force mistakes. While Anderson and Ogunleye were amazing in the NFC title game, I'll take Freeney against Rex in warm weather. Something tells me Adam will be involved. Peyton gets his ring, but it won't be easy.
Score: 27-23 Colts
MVP: Peyton Manning

Fuego
The play of Rex Grossman will determine who wins this game. Peyton Manning will undoubtedly have some big pass plays and the Bears defense will have key stops as well, including a turnover or two. Two key factors in this game: How well can the Colts special teams keep Devin Hester a non-factor (and do so without giving them good field position). Secondly, can Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson be effective enough to give Grossman chances downfield. I think Rex will have a huge game if the Colts plan on putting 7 and 8 people in the box.
Score: 31-27 Bears
MVP: Rex Grossman

Armin
Simplicity. Super Bowl XLI focuses on one story. Will Peyton Manning put his name up there with Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, and John Elway? Will the tenacious Chicago Bears defense, reduced to the role of antagonist, spoil the day for the NFL's poster-boy? While several other sub-plots will be at play, like Rex Grossman's performance and an African-American coach winning the Super Bowl, most eyes will watch Peyton's quest for greatness. In the end, we will see Peyton silence the doubters with an MVP performance.
Score: 34-27 Colts
MVP: Peyton Manning

Sum
While the media is hyperventilating over Grossman's crappy play and Manning's dream come true, I think this game will come down to the running game. If Lovie Smith is a smart guy, he won't shy away from the run, and 25 of the Bears' first 30 plays will be runs. But, this is the Colts' game to lose. With an incredible QB, multiple solid receiving threats, a power and finesse run attack, and a rejuvenated defense, my brain and all logic says the Colts win. But my gut tells me they won't.
Score: 24-20 Bears
MVP: Devin Hester

Paymon
We know all the facts, but the game is played to disprove them. Ball security, Grossman's reaction to the Cover 2 scheme, and the Bears' ability to run the ball effectively will determine their fate. Somehow, the Colts continue to win without the normal formula for a Super Bowl participant, let alone a champion. I see this one as a battle throughout with the Colts edging the Bears with an amazing effort from an unexpected source.
Score: 23-20 Colts
MVP: Joseph Addai

Is the Super Bowl a Bland Game?
by Chris Clement

Super Bowls typically are rather boring games. Last year, most thought the Steelers would cruise to victory. While the score favored that notion, several terrible calls at key junctures marred that game. Big Ben didn't get in, DJax's push-off was way too ticky-tack, and the Steelers got away with a lot of holding penalties on Tubbs and Wistrom. In spite of the egregious calls, that still doesn't keep me from saying the Steelers won, thanks to some great playcalling from Whisenhunt.

Point is: Most Super Bowl are pretty bland. Let's look briefly at the last ten for further evidence.

XL- Pittsburgh defeats Seattle in a terrible game. The Hawks get their one TD after Jeramy Stevens drops five or six passes.
XXXIX- Patriots over Eagles. Pretty lackluster. Nice catch from Greg Lewis. McNabb pukes and the Eagles seem futile in their final drive.
XXXVIII-Patriots over Panthers. DeShaun Foster has the play of the game. Bunch of sloppy posessions in a bad first quarter. Kasay shanks a key kickoff. Brady does it again. Very average.
XXXVII-Tampa Bay spanks Oakland. Barrett Robins got more attention than any other Raider. Gannon throws 2 TDs to the Raiders and 3 to the Bucs. Simeon Rice gets jobbed for the MVP by Dexter Jackson of all people. BORING to watch Michael Pittman run well.
XXXVI-New England over St. Louis. Ty Law owns Kurt Warner. The Rams play sloppy and the Proehl TD and Brady's drive make the 4th quarter the only quarter worthwhile. It was a good upset, but not the "American Dream" story that Boston sportswriters tried to make it.
XXXV-Baltimore over NY Giants. Wow, this one sucked balls. Giants scored their only TD on special teams, no less. Collins sucked. Ray had 6 tackles and an MVP.
XXXIV-Rams over Titans. PLEASE don't overrate this. It was a fantastic 4th quarter, but sucked until then. Mike Jones' tackle should've earned him an MVP. Warner somehow threw for 400+ yards this game.
XXXIII-Denver over Atlanta. Should've been the Vikes, if not for the ageless Gary Anderson. FB Howard Griffith had two TDs. Elway's swansong sucked. Eugene Robinson's arrest was the highlight for the Falcons.
XXXII-Denver over Green Bay. Probably the best of the bunch. Good 1st, sloppy second and third, and Elway was fantastic in the 4th. The helicopter was fun. Still, nothing compared to Bills/Giants (which is the best Super Bowl of my lifetime that I watched).
XXXI-Green Bay over New England. Nobody thought New England had a shot. Reggie was great, Favre was Favre, and Desmond Howard stole the spotlight. It wasn't nearly as exciting to see as John Madden tried to make it.
XXX-Dallas over Pittsburgh. Cowboys played flat, but won thanks to Larry Brown being lost and Neil O'Donnell finding him. Great signing, Jets. As for the game, Switzer was the coach. By the way, Gumby could've coached this team to victory.

As for this year, I could analyze all day, but I won't. Honestly, I have zero idea. Colts can't fall behind by 10 to this team. But isn't Rex due for a pick-six? Or two of them? Or three? Who knows? I would like to see Peyton/Dungy/Harrison overcome it, but Rex with a ring sounds like my favorite f-u to the media. Or "POW!" as Armin likes to say.

I'm just glad that I won't have to watch Belichick in his ridiculous sweatshirt with cut-off sleeves this weekend. Tool.

Editor's note: PHSports Super Bowl Predictions will be out tomorrow!

Thursday's Nuggets - Extra Crispy

February is upon us and this signifies the start of bubble talk in a couple of weeks. Even on today, February 1st, I still consider it hilarious when someone asks me or someone else if a certain team is in. Ladies and gentlemen, unless the school you are inquiring was either seeded 1 or 2 in my most recent version of the NCAA Tournament Predictions, then that school is not necessarily in the tournament. Entering January 1, I seeded Alabama as a 3 seed. Four weeks later, the Tide is nearly bleached and Ronald Steele is a shell of himself. Twenty-eight days later, Alabama can be a 3 seed again and Virginia Tech may be the team whose hopes are hanging by a thread.

Speaking of Virginia Tech, they saw their solid play come to a halt at home against ACC cellar-dwellers NC State, 70-59. "We were out-coached, we were out-played, we were out-competed, we were out-focused, we were out-toughed," said Hokies head coach Seth Greenberg. That sums up frustration and a bad entry into a sink-or-swim month.

Other Headlines

Indiana fans may soon forget that their coach is a cheater following their win against Wisconsin.

Kevin Durant poured in 37 and 23 (points and rebounds) as Texas defeated the Red Raiders in Lubbock.

Florida started slowly, per usual, and then overcame an upstart Vandy team. Remember the name Derrick Byars. If Vanderbilt does anything of substance this season, he'll be the main contributor.

VCU finally lost in the Colonial last night, succumbing to a Hofstra team that was embarrassed by four-win Delaware on Monday.

Moving onto tonight, here are the games of note:

Oregon @ UCLA: A battle for Pac-10 supremacy. After losing their way in the second half against Stanford, the Bruins seek to re-establish their physical presence. Oregon doesn't care how they win, and that's why they're doing just that.

Washington St. @ Arizona: A must-win for both teams, but more for Arizona. The dictation of tempo will ultimately decide the winner in this one. Shakur v. Low is a matchup worth tuning in for by itself.

Duke @ Virginia: The 'Hoos are hot. Duke is winning too, with a mix of solid defense, timely shooting, and fortituitous bounces going their way via the zebras. Something to think about: this is Duke's 4th true road game of the season.

Old Dominion @ Drexel: This is the most important game remaining on the Monarchs' regular season schedule, bar none. Drexel needs this one badly too. Expect a grinder from start to finish.