UNC-Duke I: The Recap

While I am well aware of the other games on last night's college basketball slate, no single game was bigger than North Carolina at Duke. And that's not just for fans of either team, but for the majority of the college basketball nation.

Prior to the game, I had written some notes leading up to the game but did not have the time to post until late in the business day; therefore, I only disseminated the notes to a group of people.

PRE-GAME NOTES ABOUT UNC @ DUKE (in italics)
In the first of two meetings, the Blue Devils host North Carolina in what must be a must-win games for both teams after being on the business end of defeats over the weekend.

1. For North Carolina, the key is to place pressure on Duke's ball handlers and score in the open court.
- This did not happen for more than a half and Duke capitalized as a result.

2. On the other side, Duke must frustrate sophomore phenom Tyler Hansbrough in addition to avoiding scoring droughts.
- First, Duke frustrated the heck out of Hansbrough with Brian Zoubek on the defensive end. Zoubek's energy and ability to annoy Hansbrough set the tone for Duke taking a comfortable 1st half lead.
- Second, Duke's scoring woes have been documented. One major scoring drought that lasted longer than 5 minutes allowed Carolina to steadily chop at the lead and eventually overtake the Blue Devils.

3. Look for Duke to find an additional scoring valve early on and to find open shots for Scheyer and Nelson.
- Scheyer had a career night (26 points on 8-for-18 shooting) and anyone following Carolina knows that they cannot cover the perimeter at all. Nelson and Henderson also got some great looks, especially for Henderson in the early going.

4. Team Stat Pack: Duke has scored 70 or more in 3 of 9 ACC games this season (3-0). Conversely, Duke has only given up 70 or more points on three occasions all season (1-2). UNC averages 88.1 ppg and has been held under 70 just once (69 points @ St. Louis).

- This was the proverbial "something's gotta give it" matchup with two teams excelling at opposite sides of the ball. It always seemed like this would be played with the winner reaching the 70-point mark.

POST GAME REMARKS
Of course, you're going to hear from the real media that Duke "played their hearts out" and that "they are running on fumes" by the end of the game. Both points are mostly true. Duke played with heart for 40 minutes and most of their players were running on fumes by game's end. In my opinion, Duke's gameplan was flawed. Why would a 7-deep team try to play up-tempo against a quicker, more talented team that can go 11 or 12 players deep? From a basketball approach, this makes zero sense. I won't even comment on McRoberts' and Zoubek's hideous footwork on the offensive interior (thanks, Wojo). I guess I just did.

As for Carolina, they are lucky that Duke missed shots whenever the lead reached double digits. I expected more out of the gate from the Tar Heels following an embarrassing loss to NC State. If Roy is a good coach, he will have his talented group of youngsters sit through the following games to avoid complacency leading up to the one n' done tournament: Kansas/Arizona (1997), George Mason/Connecticut (2006), and UNLV/Duke (1991). All are painful defeats, yet all are invaluable lessons in humility that will better equip Carolina for future battles.

NCAA Bracket-Related Questions

Kevin Durant: Is his magical play creating an illusion with regard to Texas' resume?

(courtesy: www.texassports.com)

Today's edition of the NCAA Tournament Bracket-related questions addresses the most pressing questions with respect to yesterday's bracket projections. It also examines surprising underachievement from a trio of marquee coaches.

Q: Which of your current 12 seeds would you bet on most to beat a 5?

A: It's a flip of the coin between Appalachian St. and Winthrop, but the nod would have to go to Winthrop. Just look at their non-conference schedule. They are afraid of no one and will play anyone on any court. They took one #1 seed to the wire (North Carolina) and another to overtime (Wisconsin).

Q: You have Southern Illinois as a 3. Who have they beaten to deserve that?

A: I guess I'm guilty of the RPI bug. Coming into Monday's action, SIU had a share (Creighton) of the Missouri Valley (5th-rated conference according to the RPI) with a 10-3 record. Their RPI is a sizzling 9 and their strength-of-schedule is 31st. I understand that their best wins are within the Valley, but the MVC is better than the Big East this season and has much more parity than the Big East and Big Ten. Lately, the Salukis have smothered teams, holding their last two opponents under 50. This week, SIU has home bouts versus Bradley and Creighton, both of whom are currently in the RPI Top 50.

Q: Why do you spit so much venom in Duke's direction?

A: This is a multi-part answer. First, let's get my bias out of the way. I'm a North Carolina fan and have been one since I started following college basketball twenty years ago. Second, the media is Duke-driven. ESPN's top color commentator has a well-known nickname (Dukie V) and the rising star at ESPN (Jay "Duke Boy" Bilas) was a player and assistant under Coach K. Third, if you take the name out of this year's resume, as we speak, Duke may be grazing the 6 or 7 line. Right now, they're a team that cannot score points, and that makes you susceptible against all teams.

Q: Who are your 3 worst coaches among those who have won a national title?

A: My first spot goes to Jim Boeheim. I know, he lost his leader in G-Mac, but their current showing is ridiculous. The Carrier Dome advantage is a joke this season. I know that I don't know the whole story, but I know enough to tell this one.

My second spot goes to Coach K. If Dick Vitale wasn't such a Dukie, he would say "Coach K has been bad with a capital 'B', baby!" Instead, we have to hear about his split duties between coaching Team USA and Duke. Mike D'Antoni seems to be doing just fine. The point is, Duke gets top 50 recruits every year and any time that any of them produce, K is a mastermind in the eyes of everyone with a microphone near them. McRoberts would've been far more developed by now and a bona fide star anywhere else, save the NBA. They fear saying that he might be 4-5 in the conference with marquee players if the referees had paid attention to the game versus Clemson (there were other bad calls in addition to the clock problem).

My third spot goes to Lute Olsen. He's a god in Tucson and their fans are brainwashed. The fact of the matter is that a team with this type of talent should not be reeling at 6-5 in conference play and be beaten by 28 on its home floor by anyone. Olsen, who is starting to receive criticism, has failed to develop any semblance of a bench and this has placed a heavier burden on the starting five.

Q: You have Texas as the last team in the field. Why aren't they higher?

A: I think the cream will rise to the top eventually. Even if it doesn't, the selection committee will do all in its power to have Kevin Durant play for at least one round. Right now, as a basketball team, they're an optical illusion in the eyes of many bracketologists. Their best wins are versus Arkansas and at Texas Tech. Their win against LSU on a neutral court was once strong, but that victory has gone tumbling down in value almost as fast as the Tigers' prestige. Texas should gather more signature wins, but at present, they are the 6th-best team in what should be no more than a five-bid league.

Thursday's Nuggets - Extra Crispy

February is upon us and this signifies the start of bubble talk in a couple of weeks. Even on today, February 1st, I still consider it hilarious when someone asks me or someone else if a certain team is in. Ladies and gentlemen, unless the school you are inquiring was either seeded 1 or 2 in my most recent version of the NCAA Tournament Predictions, then that school is not necessarily in the tournament. Entering January 1, I seeded Alabama as a 3 seed. Four weeks later, the Tide is nearly bleached and Ronald Steele is a shell of himself. Twenty-eight days later, Alabama can be a 3 seed again and Virginia Tech may be the team whose hopes are hanging by a thread.

Speaking of Virginia Tech, they saw their solid play come to a halt at home against ACC cellar-dwellers NC State, 70-59. "We were out-coached, we were out-played, we were out-competed, we were out-focused, we were out-toughed," said Hokies head coach Seth Greenberg. That sums up frustration and a bad entry into a sink-or-swim month.

Other Headlines

Indiana fans may soon forget that their coach is a cheater following their win against Wisconsin.

Kevin Durant poured in 37 and 23 (points and rebounds) as Texas defeated the Red Raiders in Lubbock.

Florida started slowly, per usual, and then overcame an upstart Vandy team. Remember the name Derrick Byars. If Vanderbilt does anything of substance this season, he'll be the main contributor.

VCU finally lost in the Colonial last night, succumbing to a Hofstra team that was embarrassed by four-win Delaware on Monday.

Moving onto tonight, here are the games of note:

Oregon @ UCLA: A battle for Pac-10 supremacy. After losing their way in the second half against Stanford, the Bruins seek to re-establish their physical presence. Oregon doesn't care how they win, and that's why they're doing just that.

Washington St. @ Arizona: A must-win for both teams, but more for Arizona. The dictation of tempo will ultimately decide the winner in this one. Shakur v. Low is a matchup worth tuning in for by itself.

Duke @ Virginia: The 'Hoos are hot. Duke is winning too, with a mix of solid defense, timely shooting, and fortituitous bounces going their way via the zebras. Something to think about: this is Duke's 4th true road game of the season.

Old Dominion @ Drexel: This is the most important game remaining on the Monarchs' regular season schedule, bar none. Drexel needs this one badly too. Expect a grinder from start to finish.

Thursday's Nuggets - The Mea Culpa Edition

I know. It's Friday, yet this is Friday's nuggets. Long story short, Armin wrote a damn good article and I wanted it to stand alone for more than an hour on Thursday. I was going to post but duty called elsewhere.

Before we go further on this journey, I am calling for the ardent readers who don't make five daily visits to the site (AKA not Sum) to subscribe to the site. How do you do that? In the same box in which you type website addresses, there is an orange icon on the right. Click on it. It will send you to the 'atom.xml' page, and it will ask you to choose a reader for your subscription. When you do that, click "Subscribe Now". All of your wildest dreams will come true. Housekeeping issues are done. Enjoy the post!

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We're going with larger title sizes from here on out. College basketball really is heating up, with a bunch of surprises and a few letdowns. But let's be serious. Nothing has been decided, yet trends are developing.

Mid-Majors
(1) From the mid-major beat, I finally got to watch Virginia Commonwealth (17-3, 9-0 Colonial) in person last night and they are undoubtedly playing the best basketball in the conference. The Rams happened to shoot 60% from behind the arc, but they also outrebounded the Patriots. They make up for their lack of size with speed, quickness, and physical play. Consistency from Will Fameni may determine how far this team may go.

(1a) Speaking of the CAA, Michael Litos, who runs the CAA Hoops blog, has a book that I recommend everyone buys. "Cinderella: Inside The Rise of Mid-Major College Basketball" should be hitting bookshelves in early February.

(2) The ESPN BracketBusters matchups will be announced on Sunday. The top television game is shaping up to Southern Illinois @ either Butler or Nevada. Last year, at this time, the mid-major experts excluding this guy was anticipating Bucknell @ Northern Iowa. While it was a great game, neither team made it past the round of 32 in the NCAAs. The teams in the showcase game may not be the best ones participating.

The Big 6
(3) Is it just me or does Arizona 2007 remind you a lot of Arizona 1997? A very athletic team. Check. Finesse team. Check. Criticized justly for lack of depth and not enough physical play at the defensive end. Check. Good chemistry. Check. We'll see if they defeat North Carolina like they did in regular season of their championship season. One problem: Tyler Hansbrough is no Serge Zwikker.

(4) I'm calling out the once Big East. Balance your scheduling. Now. Until you do, none of you can say, "[insert team] played a Big East schedule". That could mean playing Rutgers, Cincinnati, South Florida, St. John's, and Seton Hall (two of them twice), and not having Pittsburgh or Marquette on the schedule.

(5) Six games into their conference season, the SEC is not what I expected it to be. Vanderbilt, who lost to Furman (at home) and Wake Forest, is 4-2 in the conference following back-to-back road wins against Kentucky and LSU. Georgia is 4-2 as well, with controversial officiating and a Ronald Steele leaner denying the Bulldogs of a dominating 5-1 clip. So much can change in a week. If either of these teams are 8-4 in three weeks' time, color me shocked.

Valuation of Road and Neutral Victories
(6) All are road wins equal? Novices, homers, and conference apologists will say yes, but the truth is far from that. Within conferences, the weakest form of a road win is the away split, whereby both teams win on the opposition's home floor. Within each of those games, the stronger of the road wins is that which is closest to the NCAA Tournament. Additionally, non-conference road wins in November/December do not carry as much power as those in January or February because teams tend to represent their truest product in the months closest to Selection Sunday.

(7) What about *true* neutral court victories? This includes the ever-growing number of early season tournaments played in Maui, Alaska, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Las Vegas (twice). These games should undoubtedly be of great value, as the atmosphere represents the truest comparison to a tournament setting with a neutral court.

Three (Why not 4?) for Thursday

(1) Via the professional hardwood, something bizarre happened and I wish PHSports had its own in-house statistician, somewhat like the Elias Sports Bureau. On the same night, two teams (Atlanta and Minnesota) were outscored by 27 points in the fourth quarter. Both lost leads in the final stanza at home to Utah and the Los Angeles Lakers, respectively. I wonder when the last time two teams were outscored by such a margin on their homecourt on the same night in the NBA.

(2) I know I've veered away from college basketball in the last week, but I've still been able to follow. After a month and change of games, [in no particular order] I see UCLA, North Carolina, Ohio State, and Florida (once they get rid of their injuries) in the elite class of teams this season with Wisconsin and Arizona on the cusp of excellence. Kansas has really struggled to gel, but seeing them emerge from the ashes would be no shock given their talent; however, thus far, they are second-best in the state (Wichita State). Pittsburgh really disappointed me with their matador approach to defending Alando Tucker and the crew from Madison. They have another test at Oklahoma State, who themselves are coming off of their first loss of the season (Tennessee). Also, Duke continues to find its offensive identity against Gonzaga at Madison Square Garden. Heytvelt versus McRoberts and Raivio versus Paulus will be a treat to watch.

(3) Don't look now, but Drexel is rated 6th in the RPI (a more realistic 62nd in Pomeroy) after road wins at Villanova and Syracuse. A major reason for this is because 6 of their 7 wins are against RPI top-150 teams. After an embarrassing overtime loss at Rider, Bruiser Flint's squad has reeled off five straight. Can they keep it going upon entering the CAA conference play? Yes, but they must improve offensively and at the free throw line.

(4) Okay, one more. As tournament selection time approaches, look for Clemson to be a bubble potentially bursting if they are sitting at 7-9 in the ACC despite a high RPI. While they have a very formidable RPI rating of 7, they are buoyed by quality wins against unconventional opponents, such as at Old Dominion (67) and South Carolina (44), and home to Appalachian State (25) and Mississippi State (68). This may present a case similar to Missouri State, who had a RPI of 21, yet only had one quality non-conference win (at Horizon League champion Wisconsin-Milwaukee).

Big Blog Update

The blog is back after a weekend of turkey, conference attending, and football watching. First off, turkey with the fam was awesome. Secondly, I attended a Baha'i conference on Friday and Saturday and it was really good. I got home in time on Saturday night to watch the drama unfold between Florida and Kansas. And of course, no weekend is complete without the National Football League. Nevertheless, we're in college basketball season, so this post will be dedicated to that.

Same Face, New Role
The first is someone we've heard of. Injuries and mono have reduced Josh Heytvelt to a bit-part role in the Gonzaga fold. Following the exodus of Adam Morrison and J.P. Batista, the Bulldogs needed a player to step up alongside pint-sized point guard Derek Raivio. The 6'11" Heytvelt has raised his game, increasing his averages to 17.3 points per game and 7.1 rebounds per game, from 3.4 and 2.0 last season, respectively. Additionally, Heytvelt, when healthy, can grind it out down low or nail a jumpshot from the high post.

Another Sweet 16 team stripped of the majority of its talent was West Virginia. Don't tell that to Joe Alexander who averaged less than two points per game last season in mop-up duty. The sophomore averages 11.2 ppg (2nd on the team) in only 23.3 minutes per game. Just as important, he plays at the top of John Beilein's famed 1-3-1. The long-armed sophomore opened up the game versus Montana with a steal in the passing lane and a flush en route to an easy victory for the Mountaineers. With that said, he is very coachable and has room for improvement.

Eating My Words
Last week, the homer in me came out to speak when Old Dominion of the CAA defeated Georgetown and the MVC had yet to earn a signature win. Two signature wins later for Missouri State (neutral floor) and Wichita State (at LSU) over Wisconsin and LSU, respectively, and I'm eating my words. Mind you, I'm not taking back what I said. The MVC gets too much hype. Just remember these two things.

First, Missouri State was a good team last season and they remain strong. Wisconsin's preseason ranking is high, in my opinion, and of course, I can say that because hindsight is 20/20. Last season, they were embarrassed in the NCAA Tournament. In this day of early exits to the professional ranks, decent teams from a major conferences who return five starters are automatically ranked in the Top 25. Time will only tell if Wisconsin is for real.

Second, I've seen Wichita State play in person and they excel against teams with poor guard play who cannot defend the perimeter. Last season, we saw in the national semifinals what good guard play does to the Tigers. For the Shockers, Ryan Martin has emerged into a P.J. Tucker clone, filling a major void in the blocks left by last year's leading scorer, Paul Miller.

Heavyweight Match in Vegas
Heavyweight title boxing matches take place in Las Vegas, not marquee basketball games. Don't tell that to Florida and Kansas, as Saturday night saw two of the preseason's top three face off on a neutral court to determine a few things. No, it did not determine who's better. But it did determine that should Kansas have a last shot to take or a guy to trust down the stretch, freshman phenom Darrell Arthur is not afraid. Arthur was the recipient of great low post feeds from Julian Wright down the stretch, scoring 19 points and gathering nine boards in only 16 minutes. As for Florida, they did not play well by their standards. This game also determined what the Gators already know -- they are lacking in depth and cannot win on talent alone. Expect Billy Donovan to experiment with his rotation in order to be prepared with the tussle with Ohio State on December 23 prior to the opening of the SEC regular season.

Three for Thursday

Three questions on this fine Thursday.

Q: Kansas' home loss to Oral Roberts sent shockwaves throughout the country. Is Kansas still for real or overrated to start the season?

A: Well, prior to the dismissal of C.J. Giles, I had Kansas ranked as the 2nd in the nation overall behind Florida. When Sasha Kaun returns from injury and preseason All Big 12 first-tearmer Julian Wright remembers that he is a force rather than a farce (6 points on 3-for-10 shooting from the field), Kansas will be dominant. Mind you, Chalmers, Rush, and Robinson make up the strongest backcourt in the nation, and don't sleep on Darrell "How did this guy get out of Texas?" Arthur. The freshman phenom led the Jayhawks with 22 in a losing effort. This team is for real. If they are not, Bill Self won't be the coach next year. Book it.

Q: What is the best game between now and Saturday?

A: Probably Texas and Michigan State. Sure, both teams are so depleted that it'll look like a junior varsity game. Nevertheless, it will be the first game for Kevin Durant against real competition. Don't expect much from the Spartans. They're traditionally slow starters under Izzo who throws his players into the fire by creating schedules that even the finest teams would fear undertaking. Last year was an anomaly, as the metamorphosis of Izzo's teams is usually evident by late February.

Q: The PAC-10 gets no pub on this site. Who are the frontrunners and key players who'll decide the conference?

A: According to those more knowledgeable than me, UCLA and Arizona are far and away the frontrunners. The emergence of freshman center Spencer Hawes makes Washington a real contender in the conference. USC would need O.J. Mayo to be eligible this year in order to vy for pole position. Arizona has a very athletic team buoyed by underclassmen swingmen Marcus Williams and Chase Budinger, but ultimately led by senior floor general Mustafa Shakur. Meanwhile, the Bruins' frontline of Mbah a Moute, Mata, and Aboya presents a stark contrast to the run-and-gun Wildcats. Question marks reside in the Bruins backcourt. How will Jordan Collison perform at point guard in place of Jordan Farmar? How will the Bruins get the ball to Arron Afflalo in scoring positions without Farmar setting him up? Can Josh Shipp stay healthy?

As for the Huskies, they are not as talented as the Bruins or Wildcats, but they are well-coached and fairly deep upfront. Justin Dentmon is not only the best ballhandler on the team but its best defender. He will be the guy that Head Coach Lorenzo Romar looks to right the ship following the graduation of Brandon Roy and Jamaal Williams.