CAA BracketBusters - How Much Can They Go Up?

That’s the question being asked by many fans of the Colonial Athletic Association, as it relates to the much-ballyhooed metric of Conference RPI.

Currently, the CAA stands at a humbling 14th (average overall RPI of 0.4949), behind the Mid-American and West Coast Conferences, which stand at an approachable average overall RPI rating of 0.4991. It’s been six years since a conference with an RPI of 14 or lower has had an at-large bid.

While the CAA has shown the propensity to be a conference that improves as the season moves along (7-2 in televised BracketBusters matchups in the last two years), their less-than-stellar play in November and December has dealt them the following matchups.

All RPI data from kenpom.com

CAA BracketBusters Matchups
VCU (60) @ Akron (91)
George Mason (67) @ Ohio (62)
Bucknell (197) @ Old Dominion (115)
Vermont (220) @ UNC Wilmington (137)
Loyola- Chi (232) @ William & Mary (164)
Northeastern (172) @ Holy Cross (139)
Delaware (182) @ Toledo (202)
Morehead State (196) @ James Madison (217)
Fairfield (175) @ Drexel (224)
Hofstra (243) @ Iona (205)
High Point (240) @ Towson (249)
Georgia State (286) @ Jacksonville State (338)

Other MAC/WCC BracketBusters Matchups
Kent State (40) @ St. Mary’s (26) – ONLY WCC representative
Miami-Ohio (86) @ Valparaiso (131)
Western Michigan (140) @ UW-Green Bay (136)
Central Michigan (173) @ Missouri State (157)
Bowling Green (209) @ Detroit (281)
Southeast Missouri State (278) @ Eastern Michigan (223)
Tennessee State (265) @ Northern Illinois (261)
Youngstown State (194) @ Buffalo (272)
Ball State (280) @ Eastern Kentucky (246)

• Games in bold are televised
• Games in italics identify those which include matchups between teams with a conference RPI of 12 through 14

For the CAA to move up the conference RPI charts, the following things must happen this weekend for the conference to gain an at-large bid:

• The CAA’s Top 5 (VCU, GMU, UNCW, ODU, W&M) MUST win
• The CAA MUST go 3-0 against the MAC
• Kent State (who throttled George Mason) MUST defeat St. Mary’s
• The MAC MUST go winless in its remaining televised games
• The CAA MUST go at least 8-4
• The MAC MUST win less than half of its games

BracketBusters Fallout

Outside of Selection Sunday, the ESPN BracketBusters weekend is the most important for mid-major programs in terms of exposure to a national audience. Although the competition has become diluted by including a whopping 102 teams, it demonstrated yet again through the 13 televised games that the mid-majors can produce high quality basketball.

Performance by Conference
Big West (3-5): Double digit losses for Long Beach St. and Cal St. Fullerton can't help seeding.
Colonial (5-7): A bit deceiving. 3-1 for the top four teams in the conference. The caboose continues to let down the conference.
Horizon (7-2): Wright St. continues to gain credibility as the potential team who may win the league tournament. Butler's home loss to Southern Illinois may have been more meaningful than all seven wins.
Metro Atlantic (6-4): Nothing of import. Marist, Siena, and Loyola (MD) all win.
Mid-American (6-6): Akron trounces an outmatched Austin Peay team while Toledo falls at home to Old Dominion. If Kent State can learn to value the ball, they could win the league tournament.
Missouri Valley (5-5): So-so performance from the Valley. I expected more from the conference with the RPI of 7. SIU and Bradley took care of business while Creighton and Wichita St. disappointed. Northern Iowa and Missouri St. (to a lesser degree) lost to better teams in Nevada and Winthrop, respectively.
Ohio Valley (3-8): Ugly on all accounts.
Western Athletic (7-2): Another case of being undermatched, but the league took care of business. Utah St. and Hawaii with big road wins while Nevada continues to roll. New Mexico State gets its biggest non-conference win, although it's not enough to make a case for an at-large bid. Overall, their performance begs the question about a second bid allotment.

Big Winners1. Southern Illinois: The Salukis defeated Butler on the Bulldogs' home court, making an even stronger case for a #3 seed.

2. Winthrop: When your RPI suffers as a result of your conference affiliation, the Golden Eagles have to capitalize on every opportunity and capitalize they did.
T-3: Drexel & Bradley: Both teams were not supposed to win, especially if you watched the first 10 minutes of each game. Rebounding at both ends of the floor and never giving up earned these two teams victories crucial to their at-large bid resumes.
5. The WAC: The top seven teams in the conference won their games while the two that didn't carried 7 wins into Saturday ... combined. Expect heavy consideration for a second bid even if Nevada steamrolls through the conference tournament.

Honorable Mention: Appalachian St. defeated a hungry Wichita St. team who is just starting to come around after a disastrous January. DJ Thompson hit 'the shocker' to stun the crowd at Koch. Add that to neutral court victories against Vanderbilt and Virginia, as well as a road victory at VCU.

The Losers
1. VCU: They needed a win against a RPI top-50 opponent. They failed. No excuses.
2. Creighton: The home loss to Drexel appears worse than it actually is because Drexel has played less than stellar basketball in the last two months, falling earlier this week to William & Mary. Bluejays fans will now have nightmares about Frank Elegar for days on end.
T-3. Wichita St. & Missouri St.: Had Wichita pulled this off, I wonder if the media would've hailed this a quality win. Same case with Missouri State. Teams like Winthrop and Appalachian St. often get disrespected by pundits because of ignorance. When the day is done, the conference RPI of 7 is called into question following losses like these.
5. Butler: A win against a quality opponent would have refreshed the minds of fans who saw them win the Preseason NIT. Graves' bout with the flu made matters worse.