NBA Offseason Preview - Seattle Supersonics

Seattle Supersonics
Record: 20-62
2008-2009 Payroll (Source: HoopsHype.com): $48.4M

Draft Picks: #4, #24, #32, #46, #50, #56

While the Sonics were stinking up the courts across the country, one thing become certain as the season reached a close. This is Kevin Durant’s team. With a glut of mediocrity (in other words, the entire roster minus the aforementioned Durant and perhaps Jeff Green) shaped across the Sonics roster, it’s no wonder that they have little to no sense of team identity.

The Sonics are at least two years away from any real talk of the playoffs. Therefore, the goal this season is to get tougher and develop some level of consistency.

Burning Questions: The same question asked about Portland last year will be asked of Seattle this year. With six draft picks, what is the Sonics plan (beyond moving to Oklahoma City)? Also, when will they begin to shed the expiring contracts of veterans who do not figure to be a part of the Sonics' long-term plans? Though unvisited in this post, will the Sonics make a play for a free agent this season (the dumb thing to do) or wait at least another season for Kevin Durant and Jeff Green to mature?

Perceived Needs: C, PF, Backup PG

If I Were GM ... I’d be prepared to offload the likes Chris Wilcox, Robert Swift, Saer Sene, Donyell Marshall and Adrian Griffin who are in contract years (Sene has a team option in 2009-2010) in order to clear the books. Also, I would settle once and for all on who the point guard will be by trading either Luke Ridnour or Earl Watson. Combined, they make $12.7M, but do their statistics amount to that figure? Not unless they are members of the Knicks. With six selections in the draft and three in the top 32, the Sonics can address holes while developing players who are seasons away from the NBA. The Sonics may package one or more of their second-round picks in an effort to offload salaries.

With the 4th selection, the Sonics must hope that the Timberwolves do not married to the idea of drafting Brook Lopez, who would be a dynamic set for PJ Carlesimo. If the Wolves do, the Sonics hold a ticket back into the 1st round at pick #24 (and a quartet of second-round picks) which can facilitate a trade for the Stanford big man. If worse comes to absolute worst, then the Sonics have to evaluate a vital question followed by a corollary. First, they need to determine whether Jerryd Bayless or OJ Mayo are capable of transitioning to the point guard position. If not, the Sonics have to consider trading down in the 1st round for cash or future considerations.

Since the Sonics have only 12 players under contract going into the season and at least 3 who are in the final year of their contract are likely to be used as trade bait, it would not surprise me if as many as four draftees are on the opening night roster.

Nick Young to draft, Jeff Green likely to return?

Note: I also wish to convey my deepest sympathy to the entire Virginia Tech community. You are and will remain in our thoughts and prayers.

Early reports from the LA Times have been confirmed. Nick Young will forgo his senior season and enter this year's edition of the NBA Draft. At present, Young feels that his stock is at an all-time high and his reason for entering the draft is all about family. In fact, he wants to buy his mother her own home. In his press conference, the guard who has been an all-Pac-10 performer the last two years indicated that he will hire an agent, which will effectively end his collegiate career.

Young sees himself as being drafted anywhere between the 12th and 25th picks, and I tend to agree with his educated assessment. While this draft carries a seemingly unending list of excellent forwards (especially, power forwards), Young is one of a few pure shooting guards who can be instantly inserted into a NBA team's rotation. Under USC head coach Tim Floyd's tutelage, the 6'6" guard has become a better defender and more mature as a person.

In other USC-related news, Gabe Pruitt may also declare for the NBA Draft. Many projection sites have him going as a late 1st-rounder, but be weary that being a late 1st-rounder at this juncture (or any) is unsteady ground for any person considering a jump to the professionals. Lest we forget about Florida's Matt Walsh, who leading up to the draft (including draft day), was considered to be a late-first round or early-second round pick. He went undrafted. Warnings of potential missteps aside, the losses of Nick Young, Lodrick Stewart, and possibly Pruitt will expand the learning curve and reduce the margin for error for incoming freshmen OJ Mayo and Davon Jefferson who headline a top 5 national recruiting class.

Three thousand miles east, Georgetown fans have reason to rejoice. Ok, only 70% chance of a reason. That's because Big East player of the year Jeff Green announced today that there is a 70/30 chance that he'll return to school for his senior season. The humble Green said, "It depends on whether I'm ready. I still have a lot of things that I need to work on to play at that level."

His junior teammate Roy Hibbert said he was 50/50 about staying in the draft. Although his stock currently projects Hibbert as a mid-to-late lottery selection, he does not want to spend his first season in the league at the end of a bench when he could have been completing his studies and excelling on the court at Georgetown.

Other News

* Indiana's DJ White will return for his senior season. Somehow, I don't think Kelvin Sampson convinced White to stay by showing him the professional success of the forwards he's coached at Oklahoma.
* In a surprise, St. Louis gave Brad Soderberg the heave-ho. ESPN, in its infinite wisdom, loves to make something out of nothing by mentioning that coaches were relieved of their duties despite winning 20 games. The reality is that the Billikens did not perform to expectations. CBS SportsLine reports that the firing is tied to the university's decision to build a new $80.5 million arena.
* Air Force promoted assistant coach Jeff Reynolds to the head coach, formerly occupied by new Colorado head coach Jeff Bzdelik.
* Rick Barnes will be joining the $2 million per year club, as the Board of Regents at Texas agreed to raise his salary. Is it just me or is Barnes totally not worth it? I'd like to hear an argument validating his salary. He's made the exact same number of Final Four trips as this man, who's synonymous with doing the YMCA dance during Midnight Madness.
* Lastly, South Alabama named Texas A&M Corpus Christi's Ronnie Arrow as their head coach. Arrow has reportedly signed a 6-year deal earning $300,000 per year. Ironically, Arrow was once fired by South Alabama according to ESPN.

College Basketball Confusion: A Weekend in Review

As we inch closer to the NBA Draft, fans are supposed to view issues through a clearer lens. If that's the case, then you can consider this weekend to be an anomaly of sorts.

On Friday, Georgetown juniors Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert declared for the NBA Draft; however, neither has yet to sign with an agent. Essentially, next season goes from being a potential season to compete for the national title to a rebuilding year with lower expectations. At this point, both players are considered to be lottery picks (1-14) in this year's draft, and if that holds true, it would be a shock to see either return for their senior season.

In a story published by the Indianapolis Star on Saturday, Greg Oden Sr. said that his son will enter the draft. He also said that Mike Conley Jr. would represent the odds-on 1st pick overall. On that same day, reports surfaced on ESPN television stating that Mike Conley Jr. and Daequan Cook were also entering their names for the draft. On Saturday night, Mike Conley Sr. refuted the earlier statements and said that Greg Oden had yet to make a decision and that if decides to go to the pros, only then will he decide his representation. Since the elder Conley's statement, ESPNEWS has not reported (and re-reported with its nauseating yet informative 15-minute loops) anything about Conley Jr. and Cook; therefore, as of this moment, we must consider that the initial report was unsubstantiated.

In coaching news, Wichita State got themselves a dandy of a head coach in the form of former Winthrop head coach Gregg Marshall. He replaces Mark Turgeon, who left for Texas A&M earlier this week. As for Marshall, he tentatively agreed to a 7-year contract that will pay him approximately $750,000 per year, including performance incentives.

Winthrop moved quickly to fill its vacancy by tabbing assistant coach Randy Peele to be its head coach. Terms were undisclosed.

NCAA Tournament Preview

We are now just hours and minutes away from the start of the NCAA Tournament. Clement and Paymon look into Final Four picks, what to expect, what not to expect, and the names who'll make this tournament memorable.

WHAT TO EXPECT -- Clement

Final Four: [East] UNC, [South] Texas A&M, [West] UCLA, and [Midwest] Florida
-UNC has the most actual talent in college basketball and has a very experienced coaching staff, headed of course by Roy Williams, who has worked his depth quite well this season. They’ll outlast Durant and truth be told, I don’t buy Georgetown’s backcourt enough to get past the Heels in a potential dynamic Elite Eight matchup.
-I’ve been ridin’ Acie Law IV all season long. He’s the most clutch player I’ve seen in college basketball this season and I believe the Aggie can control the tempo of the game easily with teams like Memphis or Nevada. A&M also has just enough outside shooting, especially with the streaky Kavaliauskas, to keep Oden away from the boards enough to upset the Buckeyes. My love for them clearly means they’re out by the first weekend though.
-UCLA is the team to beat out West, never leaving the state of California if they keep winning, until the trip to Atlanta for their second-straight Final Four. While Kansas provides scary matchups, Darren Collison is healthier than he’s been in recent weeks and their depth is sorely underrated.
-Florida is the team to beat. While such monikers have plagued squads like Duke, Kentucky, and UCONN over the past few years…it’s also aided teams like Duke, Kentucky, and UCONN over the past few years. As long as they stay healthy and can get two strong shooting nights from Lee Humphrey out of four, they’ll wind up back in the Final Four.

National Championship : UNC vs. Florida
-Predictable, I know. Yet I also felt that way two years ago when Illinois and UNC seemed the two clear favorites to reach the title game. Yet, I see the Baby Heels falling a bit short this time. Horford and Noah may get a lot more calls against Hansbrough than many UNC fans, or Gator-haters, are willing to accept. I also believe Taurean Green can run with the best of them and would be the tipping point for a narrow 5-point Gator victory. Repeat!

Tournament MOP: Al Horford, Florida Gators
-While Noah is the poster-boy, Horford is the better talent. He’ll dominate against UCLA again and find himself ending up with 16 and 11 against the Heels. This guy will be picked in the draft right before teammate Noah…and this will show EVERYONE why.

Top 1st Round Matchup: #6. Notre Dame vs. #11. Winthrop [Midwest Region]
-Alright Winthrop. Put-up or shut up time. Notre Dame is lethal from behind the arc, but more often than not you die by the three before you live by it for two or three straight tournament games. Look for Craig Bradshaw’s name early and often if the Eagles have a real shot of upsetting the Irish. Memo to Mike Bray: wear a tie, please! You look hideous in the sport/coat and solid shirt. Hideous.

Upset(s) of the 1st Round: #11. VCU over #6. Duke & #12. Old Dominion over #5. Butler
-Nothing but biased CAA love. ODU bit me two years ago, when Michigan State rolled all the way to the Final Four after defeating Isaiah Hunter and company. Ditto with VCU, who I naively had defeating Wake (they did only lose by 1) only three tournament brackets ago (my worst ever, by the way). Either way, go CAA go.

Sleeper/Cinderella: Vanderbilt Commodores [East Region] & UNLV Runnin’ Rebels [Midwest Region]
-Vandy’s style of play could have them trailing by fifteen merely fifteen minutes in their opening game. Yet, I view Washington State as the weakest 3-seed (much as I did Tennessee as the weakest 2-last year losing to Wichita State in my bracket) and think Vandy can shoot lights out against Georgetown and control the pact of the game. Who knows if they can honestly make the Elite Eight, but why not have some fun? As for UNLV, it’s nothing more than a feeling and their RPI. That’s all I can really say.

Impact Player You've Never Heard Of: Nevada’s guard Marcellus Kemp
-He can drop 25 and all you thought about all game long was Fazekas. It’s imperative to get by Creighton AND to match up well with the athletes of Memphis that the Wolfpack rely on their best pure perimeter player. I just have a hunch the name Kemp may sound like the name Wheeler did several tournaments ago.

Coach with the Most on the Line: Tubby Smith, Kentucky
-Don’t let the AD comment’s fool you, the guy needs a win. Villanova is probably favored and Tubby knows this. He needs the opportunity to stun a #1 as badly as any coach with an underachieving program this year.

Overrated Pick of the Tournament: Kansas Jayhawks as National Champs
-Losses to Bucknell and Bradley aren’t the worst things in the world, but what has Bill Self done in Kansas except recruit exceptionally well? While their road is relatively easy until the Elite Eight, it’s put-up or shut-up time for a school that has never won the biggest games since the days of Danny Manning.

Underrated Pick of the Tournament: Texas upsetting North Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen
-I don’t even know if Texas will be in this game to be honest. Ditto with UNC if Michigan State is up to old ridiculous tricks. Riding freshman is fun (see Pervis, Melo, and a cast of others)…but it’s still rare that it works out with a Final Four appearance. Augustin might be just as key as Durant is in all of this. Ditto with the outside shooting of Abrams. Yet, Rick Barnes is starting to become one of the better coaches, and not just recruiters, in the nation. If the mask does bother Hansbrough just enough and Reyshawn Terry can’t shoot at all for one night (which is never out of the question), perhaps Texas could survive in a shootout with the Tar Heels. Perhaps.

WHAT TO EXPECT -- Paymon

Final Four: [East] Georgetown, [South] Texas A&M, [West] UCLA, and [Midwest] Florida
- Yes, I’m going against my Tar Heels. Could it be the youth? Could it be playing to the level of their opponents? It could also be that should they make it to the Elite 8, they’ll likely have Hoya Paranoia waiting in the wings. I’m not saying that we’ll see the Hoyas faithful clad in Starter jackets, but they’ll be at East Rutherford cheering on their team. Anyways, the better, more experienced team wins.
- In the South, is it that I love Acie Law IV a lot or that I remain unimpressed by the Buckeyes? Mind you, they embarrassed a Butch-less Wisconsin on Sunday. If the Aggies can overcome Memphis in the Sweet 16, I can see Joseph Jones playing the game of his life and Josh Carter hitting the 3s to assist the aforementioned Law IV en route to a Final Four trip.
- A lot of Kansas and Memphis fans have a legit beef with UCLA. For the second time in as many years, UCLA gets the second, but will be playing in their home state as the #2 seed should they advance to the regional semifinals. Home-state advantage or not, the Bruins need to do things: forget about their last two games and get Darren Collison’s sprained ankle to heal.
- I’ll let the real media gush over Florida. They’re good. Nothing I say will be new to you, so I won’t insult your intelligence. If they play Wisconsin in the regional final and Brian Butch is healthy, we may have a game on our hands. Otherwise, they’ll be Gator bait.

National Championship : Georgetown vs. Florida
- Georgetown is the sexy pick to make the finals and take out the Gators. Why? Last year, they came the closest. At this point last season, the Hoyas weren’t quite this dominant. While Georgetown is the hottest team in the country and the team that absolutely no one wants to face, they may be due for the momentary lapse due to their relative inexperience in the backcourt. Last season, the Hoyas let the eventual champions escape - not so this year. Green, Humphrey, and Brewer will give Georgetown fits, but the other Green (Jeff) will be cutting down the nets as he determines whether to go pro.

Tournament MOP: Jeff Green, Georgetown Hoyas
- Green epitomizes the hard working team that JTIII has developed. He has all the tools necessary for the NBA yet he wasn't even in the Top 150 recruits according to rivals.com. Additionally, he has gotten over his weakness, free throw shooting, making him even more of a go-to guy down the stretch for the Hoyas. His calming presence to the inexperienced guards will not be overlooked by admirers.

Top 1st Round Matchup: #6. Notre Dame vs. #11. Winthrop [Midwest Region]
- My prediction is that a lot of 3-point shots will be hoisted. We all know about the stellar three-guard lineups of both teams, but it will be the matchups inside that determine the victor. My bet is on the Kiwi – Craig Bradshaw.

Upset(s) of the 1st Round: Old Dominion over Butler; Winthrop over Notre Dame; VCU over Duke
- Yes, I’m also guilty of the biased CAA love; however, having watched these teams on multiple teams, I know that both can bring it especially when given favorable draws. In ODU’s case, which ODU team will come out? Valdas Vasylius can really have a whale of a game if he asserts himself inside. Watch out for Gerald Lee, who is a star in the making. As for Winthrop, I’ve been touting this team all year, and with good reason. The worst team they lost to all season was Maryland. I’m sure Notre Dame fans use the transitive property (i.e. we beat Maryland and you lost to them; therefore, we are better than you – AKA “The ODU fan base special”) to assert their pre-dominance. I just like Winthrop, their determination, and I feel bad for Notre Dame if they lose, because they’ve played well the last time to rid of themselves of potential fraud status (see Illinois and Purdue). As for Duke, I haven’t liked them at all this year and not because I hate them intrinsically as a UNC supporter. They’re not deep, their ball-handling is suspect, and VCU forces turnovers. Greg Paulus needs to play one of his best games and Scheyer (not this guy) needs to hit those 3s if Duke wants to plays Pitt or Wright State (or Shight State, as my brother put it).

Sleeper/Cinderella: Winthrop Eagles [Midwest Region]
- I would say Southern Illinois, but the Salukis are pretty well-known for their suffocating defense. With that said, the easy choice is Winthrop out of the Big South Conference. All this team does is win games.

Impact Player You've Never Heard Of: Tony Young, G, Southern Illinois.
- Young is a guy that every coach wants on his team -- a physical defender, a solid long distance shooter, and an overall scrapper. If the Salukis end up making noise for the right reasons, Young will play a formidable role.

Coach with the Most on the Line: Bill Self, Kansas Jayhawks
- How many more seasons can he go without a long tournament run? If memory serves correct, Self’s longest run was with Tulsa in 2000 when they lost in the Elite 8 to #8 seed North Carolina. He needs a run like none other, as it’s unrealistic to expect all of those talented players to stick around for a few more years.

Overrated Pick of the Tournament: Georgetown Hoyas as National Champs
- In a way, I’m calling myself out. Think about it though. Who has Georgetown beaten this year outside of Pittsburgh twice? People are wooed by the way they play and their quiet confidence – a stark contrast to the sideshow that is the Florida Gators.

Underrated Pick of the Tournament: Southern Illinois getting to the Sweet Sixteen
-Let’s get one thing straight. The Salukis do not play an attractive style of basketball. However, they play great defense and are tough to beat when Tatum and Falker are on. Strangely enough, many are writing off SIU as they face a stingy Holy Cross capable of the upset and potentially Virginia Tech, who are among the most athletic teams in the field.