Friday, March 13, 2009

Friday Night Running Bracket Blog

With the night unfolding the way it is, I thought it may be useful to have a running blog rather than respond to a flurry of communication.

  • By my count, there are 10 at-large bids available.
  • If Duquesne (up 13) defeats Dayton, then Dayton is in real trouble. Some of Dayton's wins lost value this week.
  • Florida/Auburn IS NOT a play-in game right this moment.
  • An injury to Byron Eaton should not affect whether Oklahoma State is in, but it will affect their seeding. Ultimately, it depends on the severity of the injury. He is the biggest reason why Oklahoma State turned their season around. If they win tonight, that puts the conversation to rest.
  • Bad double digit losses by Penn State and Michigan do not help at all.
  • I love the people who have put and kept BC on the bubble for as long as they have. So what if they have a bad RPI? It's a single indicator. 9-7 in the top-rated conference, a win at UNC and wins versus Duke and FSU. Al Skinner's job is easy when you have a team that is so disrespected. They are up 7 at the half against Duke.
  • Washington may drop as much as 1.5 seed lines if they lose (down 13). If they lose and Syracuse wins, they may swap seeds.
  • St. Mary's is edging Eastern Washington in the first half. Without a strong showing, they may be on the wrong side of the bracket tomorrow.
  • If San Diego State can finally beat BYU, they should be onto the correct side of the bubble.
  • San Diego State enters the fray and likely puts St. Mary's on the wrong side of the fence (for now). They defeated BYU on a neutral court and have earned a lot of respect of late.
  • Washington loses to Arizona State and the question is: Which PAC-10 team(s) earn a protected seed? As of right now, Washington is on the 4 line, but not by much.
  • Dayton is officially in panic mode. They have good wins versus Auburn, George Mason, Miami-Ohio, Temple and Xavier and at Marquette and Akron. On the flipside, they are 5-5 in their last 10 with losses to Charlotte, St. Louis and Duquesne.
  • Duke has taken over the tilt against BC, but it's too cBulleted Listlose to call.
  • Somehow, someway ... Byron Eaton is back in the game, but Mizzou is up.
  • There will be at least one surprise in tomorrow's bracket (HINT: The Big Ten only has 7 bids).
  • Auburn's win over Florida keeps them in the Field of 65 and makes a case in others' brackets. They have 1 loss since February 4 and are defeating the best teams in their midst.
  • USC defeats UCLA. Despite two neutral court victories against tournament teams in consecutive days, USC still needs to win tomorrow to earn a bid. One may think they're 11-9 in conference with balanced scheduling, but one must also think they have a Providence-like OOC resume.
  • St. Mary's makes its presence felt with a 85-65 win over lowly E. Washington. Patty Mills scores 19 and hits 4 threes. The San Diego State win over BYU on a neutral court buoys St. Mary's resume (won @ SD State).
  • Looking forward to tomorrow and Sunday, the potential bid stealers are: Temple/Duquesne (definite bid stealer - one will be in our field this morning), Tulsa (@ Memphis), Baylor (v. Missouri), USC (v. Arizona State) and Mississippi State (v. LSU).
  • Lastly, do not buy the Memphis #1 talk. All I ask is ... WHO HAVE THEY BEATEN? Tennessee when they were struggling? Gonzaga. Tulsa and UAB twice each.

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