Sunday, November 09, 2008

College Football Weekend: Top 10 & BCS Projections

And you thought we would just "hit it and quit it" after last weekend, didn't you? Didn't you?
Not a chance.
In fact, we're back and making scrambled eggs for breakfast.

Now remember…

-Any Division I-A team is eligible for at-large consideration. The BCS has never changed its automatic qualifiers -- the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the final standings; the champions of the Big East, Big Ten, Southeastern, Pac-10, Big 12 and Atlantic Coast Conferences; Notre Dame if it finishes in the top eight; and a non-BCS team that finishes in the top 12, or in the top 16 if they're ahead of a BCS champion.
-No more than two teams from any conference, no questions asked. (Sorry Big XII fans)
-No plus-one game either. However, with the addition of the “BCS Title Game”…we at least have 10 teams and not 8 invited to the party.
-With that being said, we know the BCS gets released sometime late this afternoon/early evening on FOX.
-I don’t particularly feel like “guessing” what that outcome will be. Instead, here’s the PHSports Top Ten, followed by our BCS Bowl Projections. Don’t worry; they’re based on real-life standings and not our Top Ten. You can breathe now.

PHSports Top Ten Rankings:
1) (10-0) Alabama Crimson Tide
2) (10-0) Texas Tech Red Raiders
3) (8-1) Florida Gators
4) (9-1) Texas Longhorns
5) (9-1) Oklahoma Sooners
6) (8-1) USC Trojans
7) (10-0) Utah Utes
8) (9-0) Boise State Broncos
9) (8-2) Oklahoma State Cowboys
10) (9-1) Penn State Nittany Lions

On the Cusp: Ohio State, Missouri, UNC, Georgia, & Michigan State

BCS Bowl Projected Conference Champions: (as of today)
…get ready for a laugh…

ACC -- Wake Forest
Big East -- West Virginia
Big Ten -- Michigan State
Big 12 -- Texas Tech
Pac-10 -- USC
SEC -- Alabama

Note: Wake Forest gets in b/c of its 4-2 ACC record and its tie-breaker over FSU. WVU gets the nod at 3-1 in the conference as it owns the only win between the two others at 3-1 (over Cincy, Pitt has played neither). Michigan State is tops in the Big Ten at 6-1 (Penn State, who plays the Spartans later this season, is 5-1).

Top At-Large Candidates:

Utah (highest non-BCS automatic qualifier)
Florida
Texas
Boise State (second highest non-BCS automatic qualifier)
BYU (third highest non-BCS automatic qualifier...over TCU)
Penn State (owns a win @ Columbus and controls own Big Ten destiny)

Stop me if you've heard this before...

Of course, it’s borderline crazy to predict "insert ACC team" in the ACC. However, the truth is that conference is only getting one team into the BCS. Ditto for the Big (L)East (same as last week). As for the SEC, LSU is done and Georgia really doesn't have any realistic path anymore. Bama and the Gators are on a collision course, both locked into the SEC Title game. The real interesting scenario is how a 2-loss Florida team would stack up in the projection-mess. Of course, I won't simply dismiss FSU giving the Gators a good game either. Nevertheless, the winner of the SEC Championship Game - assuming both win out - seems a lock to be in the national championship game. Key word: seems.

You also have to remember the “two per conference” rules with the stacked Big 12. Texas Tech still needs to overcome a trip to Norman against the Sooners, after winning two in a row after beating Texas & Oklahoma State (impressively, might I add) in Lubbock. Of course, that doesn't even cover the possibility of the Big XII Title game, which seems more and more likely to have Missouri and Chase Daniels representing the maligned Big XII North division.

As for the non-BCS schools…

It’s not too unlikely that Boise State goes undefeated and returns to the BCS. Utah passed its toughest test on Thursday nigth against TCU; however, they do host BYU later this month. If the Utes lose and the Broncos win out, they'll be the "outsider" getting in.

Both Utah and Boise State could end up in the top 7 or 8 of the BCS; however, the rules state that only one of these teams has to be chosen. Another one could be chosen for one of the "at-large" bids, yet does that seem likely? Boise State fans or Ohio State fans? Let me think.

How about this “BCS lineup”: ...sans MEGA-POWERHOUSE Oklahoma (for now) might I add...

Orange Bowl:
Wake Forest Deamon Deacons vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

Sugar Bowl:
Texas Longhorns vs. Florida Gators

Fiesta Bowl:
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Utah Utes

Note: Wouldn't it be all too ironic if the Fiesta - home to Boise State acclaim - actually did what was "right" and took Utah vs. Boise State. The ratings might be in the toilet...but I'd love it.

Rose Bowl:
USC Trojans vs. Michigan State Spartans

Note: Now the Rose Bowl gets its traditional Pac 10/Big 10 rivalry. The network is hoping my projections falter when Penn State defeats Michigan State at the end of their respective regular seasons.

BCS National Championship Game:
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Note: Remember, these aren't projections in the sense that I'm playing out every game. That's too easy and too risky. Instead, I'm trying to lay out the picture - as best as I can - as of today. If you don't like it...you don't like it.

There’s much more on the radar; however, that’s all I’m giving out today.
Hope you enjoyed the second-go-round.

1 comment:

kiya said...

Tell me you don't really think that anyone can beat UF the rest of the way. They are the hottest most dominant team in the country right now and as long as they don't beat themselves they will be crowned once again!