Monday, April 14, 2008

2008 NFL Draft: Mock Draft 3.0

As opposed to my previous draft this time I'm incorporating some trades. Trades are listed below. As you will also see, I went with a #1 pick that I don't exactly agree with, but thought I would mix it up a little. Hope you enjoy, and as alway, please leave comments. Tell me what you liked, tell me what you didn't like.

TRADES:
  • Raiders trade #4 overall to the Patriots for #7 and #62 overall
  • Jets send #6 overall to the Cowboys for #22, #28 and #92 overall
  • Saints trade #10 overall to the Bucs for #20, #52 and #153 overall
  • Saints trade #20 overall to the Jaguars for #26 and #89 overall
  • Redskins trade #21 and #154 overall to the Seahawks for #25 and #86 overall
  • The Chiefs ship the #35 pick overall to the Redskins for the #51 and #84 overall picks


1st Round


1. Miami: Chris Long, DE - Virginia
In reality, I'd stick with Jake Long at this pick. But for the purposes of this mock, I want to see how it might play out if Chris Long is the number one pick. This is still a very likely situation, especially with the talk of the Fins looking to move Jason Taylor

2. St. Louis: Glenn Dorsey, DT - LSU
Maybe the beat reporter that was putting negative info out there about Dorsey just didn't want his hometown Rams to draft the talented defensive lineman. They will decide to keep Carriker at DT, with Dorsey replacing La'Roi Glover as the starter.

3. Atlanta: Jake Long, T - Michigan
Many will call for Matt Ryan at this spot, but the fact is, you have to protect your QB first. Long is more than adequate for the job. QB can be something they look at next season.

4. New England: Vernon Gholston, DE - Ohio State
The Raiders are building a young nucleus and can use the extra 2nd. The Patriots knew they'd have to move above the Jets for a shot at Gholston. He'll settle right into the OLB spot and bring the rush.

5. Kansas City: Matt Ryan, QB - Boston College
Unless it's all smokescreen, the Chiefs seem to have made it clear, at Ryan's Pro Day, that they are the most interested team.

6. Dallas: Darren McFadden, RB - Arkansas
Jones met with both Arkansas RBs, and it's no secret that McFadden is the grand prize among RBs in this draft. Barber and D-Mac make a great duo out of the backfield.

7. Oakland: Sedric Ellis, DT - Southern Cal
The Raiders stay local and pick the Trojan DT that they can plug in right next to Gerard Warren, ahead of the disappointing Sands.

8. Baltimore: Leodis McKelvin, CB - Troy
McAlister and Rolle are up there in years. McKelvin can infuse the youth needed to build on in the future.

9. Cincinnati: Keith Rivers, LB - Southern Cal
Rivers had a great Pro Day. His speed and agility numbers were nearly DB-like (outside of his 40 time). Coupled with his on-field instincts, Rivers is the kind of player that the Bengals need at a weak position

10. Tampa Bay: Ryan Clady, T - Boise State
The Saints want either Dorsey, Ellis or Rivers. With all three gone, they trade down. Tampa won't be able to land one of the top three offensive tackles without moving up. They nab Ryan Clady, who can replace Petitgout.

11. Buffalo: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB - Tennessee St.
This could be Rodgers-Cromartie or Jenkins. DRC gets the nod due to his physical style, similar to the styles of former Bills Winfield and Clements.

12. Denver: Chris Williams, T - Vanderbilt
Williams gets high marks because of his athletic style and footwork. He's a great fit for the Zone-Blocking scheme in Denver.

13. Carolina: Rashard Mendelhall, RB - Illinois
Why aren't they content with DeAngelo Williams as their top back? Mendelhall would probably get the majority of the carries if he ends up in Carolina

14. Chicago: Branden Albert, G - Virginia
Albert can play either guard or tackle for the Bears. The Bears will actually groom him as a left tackle, but Albert could start out his career inside at guard.

15. Detroit: Jonathan Stewart, RB - Tennessee
The Lions take a pick that could be viewed as a reach, due to Stewart's current toe injury. However, with that toe injury, Stewart still timed extremely well at the combines

16. Arizona: Mike Jenkins, CB - South Florida
With Antrel Rolle moving to safety, the Cards have to address the CB position. Jenkins is a great pick at 16. He has had some of the best CB workouts.

17. Minnesota: Derrick Harvey, DE - Florida
The Vikes draft Harvey in hopes that he will be more effective than Udezi and will stay healthier than James.

18. Houston: Jeff Otah, T - Pittsburgh
Otah has vast potential, and could benefit from the line coaches in Houston. While Otah is on the big side, he is athletic enough in his space to thrive in Houston's zone-blocking scheme. He will probably sit behind Salaam for a year, then take over as a sophomore.

19. Philadelphia: Devin Thomas, WR - Michigan State
Yes, that is Devin Thomas as the top WR drafted. He's the total package and as of this moment, he's sitting pretty at the top.

20. Jacksonville: Phillip Merling, DE - Clemson
Knowing they had to move ahead of Washington to land Merling the Jags trade up. Merling should have no problem stepping ahead of Paul Spicer for the starting role.

21. Seattle: Felix Jones, RB - Arkansas
Worried that the Jets might go RB, the Seahawks trade ahead of them to nab the last RB that's worthy of going in the 1st round.

22. New York Jets: Brian Brohm, QB - Louisville
Here's where people will try to crucify me. But, Brohm tests similar to Matt Ryan in all of the major categories. Brohm is also a field general. Some will point to Kellen Clemens, but he's already proven that he's more backup material than a starter...or else Pennington would be elsewhere right now.

23. Pittsburgh: Ghosder Cherilus, T - Boston College
While this is a little high for Cherilus, the Steelers are the type of team that doesn't have a problem drafting need over value. Cherilus will challenge Colon for the RT spot.

24. Tennessee: Limas Sweed, WR - Texas
The Titans add a nice big target for Vince Young. He will also be nicely complimented by all of the speedy receivers that the Titans have spent mid to high draft picks on. Sweed also has school ties with Young

25. Washington: Kentwan Balmer, DT - North Carolina
Greg Blache gets his prayers answered. Balmer is the player he wants, and 25 isn't too high of a pick to use on him. He should create a nice rotation with Griffen, Montgomery and Golston. He will eventually replace Griffen altogether

26. New Orleans: Jerod Mayo, LB - Tennessee
Mayo is rising fast up the charts. He's had great workouts since the combines. He can play the weakside in New Orleans, and if Vilma and Morgan have lingering health problems, Mayo can move inside.

27. San Diego: Aqib Talib, CB - Kansas
The Chargers choose to overlook the issues with pot which caused this CB to slide. Although they have Jammer and Cromartie, they need a 3rd CB. Especially while multi-WR sets are popular.

28. New York Jets: Kenny Phillips, FS - Miami
Kenny Phillips falls to them in the right spot. The Jets needed a centerfielder to go with their standout Strong Safety Kerry Rhodes. Phillips comes from a long line of amazing safeties from "The U"

29. San Francisco: Antoine Cason, CB - Arizona
As much as they like Walt Harris, they also know the end is near. Cason is steadily moving up the charts, and could overtake Talib on draft day.

30. Green Bay: Quentin Groves, DE/LB - Auburn
Learning from the Super Bowl Champs, the Packers decide that they can't have too many pass rushers. Groves can spell Cullen Jenkins on pass plays and get after the QB with his speed rush skills.

New England: Selection Forfeited

31. New York Giants: Dan Connor, LB - Penn State
Connor should have little trouble taking over on the weak side. If Jared Mayo is available at this pick, he could be taken. The team could also go with a safety like Kenny Phillips if he falls to this pick.


2nd Round

32. Miami: Chilo Rachal, G - Southern Cal
Rachal fills a huge need for the team at left guard. This pick could also be trade down material, landing the team an extra 3rd rounder.

33. St. Louis: Calais Campbell, DE - Miami
The Rams land a DE who has a shot at winning a starting job. Campbell is also effective against the run, making him a little more enticing than Groves.

34. Atlanta: Chad Henne, QB - Michigan
What?! Henne over Flocco? That's right. Unless it's smokescreen, a couple of teams have let the cat out of the bag about their interest in Henne. There are a couple of reports stating that most teams have Henne ranked as the 3rd QB in this draft.

35. Washington: Malcolm Kelly, WR - Oklahoma
The Chiefs get another 3rd rounder to help their rebuilding efforts, and the Redskins land their West Coast Offense WR who fell into the 2nd round. Kelly ran slow times in his Pro Day, but so did a lot of prospects on that day. He had great results in his positional testing.

36. New York Jets: Lawrence Jackson, DE - Southern Cal
Mangini can use Jackson a lot like he did Vrabel. His numbers are rough, but his technique is sound. Jackson can pick either DE or OLB. He's not a tweener, he just offers more options.

37. Atlanta: Justin King, CB - Penn State
With DeAngelo Hall gone, the team is desparate for corners. Justin King has 1st round talent, but needs a little coaching to put it all together. He could be a diamond in the rough.

38. Baltimore: James Hardy, WR - Indiana
Cam Cameron likes big WRs in his offense. While Derrick Mason is there, he's in the latter years of his career. Hardy is a huge WR who will cause matchup problems, especially when Heap is also moved out wide (like Gates in San Diego)

39. San Francisco: DeSean Jackson, WR - California
How the mighty have fallen. Jackson was once a top WR in this draft, but size and production questions have marred his value. The 49ers have added WRs, but they still lack a game breaker. They can send Jackson out of the slot and let him either do his damage or draw the attention.

40. New Orleans: Trevor Laws, DT - Notre Dame
Laws seems to have moved into 4th among DTs in this draft. The Saints would have liked to add a DT in the first, but couldn't.

41. Buffalo: Mario Manningham, WR - Michigan
While Manningham is a steal at this pick, he has fallen because of alleged marijuana use. The Bills could use another target for their young QB. Look for Manningham to push Josh Reed to start alongside Lee Evans.

42. Denver: Pat Sims, DT - Auburn
The Broncos have Alvin McKinley and Marcus Thomas as the starters. They need a 3rd DT for that important rotation, and someone who can eventually outplay McKinley. Sims has great size and athleticism for a DT.

43. Carolina: Dre Moore, DT - Maryland
Kemoeatu and Lewis are 29 and 30 respectively. The Panthers need to infuse some young talent at the position. For Dre Moore, this would be the perfect situation. Moore has plenty of upside, but the talent is raw. Fox and Trgovac should be able to develop him.

44. Chicago: Andre Caldwell, WR - Florida
We all know how Florida WRs fare in this league, but Caldwell's workout numbers are too much to ignore. Caldwell has tremendous speed to go with his size and projects as a #1 WR once he matures.

45. Detroit: Curtis Lofton, MLB - Oklahoma
Lofton has starting potential and should push Paris Lenon. If Laws, Sims or Moore are available, they could get the call to help at the DT position.

46. Cincinnati: Early Doucet, WR - LSU
With Chris Henry out of the picture, and Chad Johnson being a pain, the Bengals add a receiver that's no stranger to big games. He could push the disappointing Chatman for the #3 job

47. Minnesota: Joe Flacco, QB - Delaware
If the Vikings choose to pass on Brohm in the first round, look for them to take whomever is available between Chad Henne and Joe Flacco. Travaris Jackson is not the answer for this team.

48. Atlanta: Red Bryant, DT - Texas A&M
Another 2nd round DT with a lot of potential. Bryant has great size along with great athletic ability. He could beat out last year's surprise Trey Lewis for the starting spot.

49. Philadelphia: Tracy Porter, CB - Indiana
With Lito Sheppard seemingly out the door, the Eagles bypass the need at DE and take a CB who has first round talent.

50. Arizona: Chris Johnson, RB - East Carolina
The fastest player in the draft lands on a team that could use some speed running out of the backfield. Johnson could end up sharing time with Edgerrin James.

51. Kansas City: Sam Baker, T - Southern Cal
The Chiefs turn out to be winners in their move to trade down while adding more picks. They fill a huge need along the offensive line. Baker is coachable and does well in strong systems, which the Chiefs seem to have in place.

52. New Orleans: Brandon Flowers, CB - Virginia Tech
While they have a slew of corners on their team, McKenzie and Craft are up there in age. Flowers is short in stature, but makes up for it with his aggressive play.

53. Pittsburgh: Patrick Lee, CB - Auburn
The Steelers add a big corner who fits into their scheme. Lee is a lot like Ike Taylor, who I feel is on the brink of being an elite corner once he gets over his inconsistency

54. Tennessee: DeMario Pressley, DT - North Carolina State
There is a Pressley in Tennessee. DeMario was a better prospect coming into NC State than former linemates Mario Williams, Manny Lawson, John McCargo and Tank Tyler. However injuries and inconsistency hurt his production. With the right coaching, he could be a steal.

55. Seattle: Dustin Keller, TE - Purdue
There is debate over who the top TE in the draft is. Based on potential alone, Keller is above Fred Davis. However, the Seahawks could take Davis for more of an immediate impact. I go with Keller because I think he can become something special.

56. Green Bay: Reggie Smith, CB - Oklahoma
In prior drafts I had Reggie Smith going to Green Bay in the 1st round. After his poor forty times at his Pro Day, he is going to drop. However he still fits Green Bay's style at the CB position. Smith can learn a lot from Woodson and Harris.

57. Miami: Carl Nicks, T - Nebraska
Nicks has great size and potential. He needs some coaching, but can project to either tackle. He could be the starting right tackle in a year.

58. Jacksonville: Josh Barrett, S - Arizona State
Barrett can come in and challenge Sensebaugh for the starting SS spot. Barrett is physically similar to Sean Taylor, but lacks the coverage skills that made Taylor so dangerous. Barrett is built like a LB, so he could also spend time closer to the line of scrimmage.

59. Indianapolis: Jamaal Charles, RB - Texas
Another one of my controversial picks. While they could use a LB, I think they would be better served getting someone who can buddy up with Addai and take on about 10-15 carries per game, also allowing Addai to split out wide on some plays. Kenton Keith had one good game, but looks more like a 3rd stringer to me.

60. Green Bay: Fred Davis, TE - Southern Cal
One of the best things a team can do for a young QB is to get him a target that he can rely on underneath when he's in trouble. Davis could get plenty of playing time early on this team.

61. Dallas: Jordy Nelson, WR - Kansas State
T.O. and Glenn are getting old, and Crayton isn't as dependable as a WR as they would like. Nelson is the definition of dependable. Last year's numbers state the case. He tested well, and did very well in his position skills testing.

62. Oakland: Jeremy Zuttah, G - Rutgers
Zuttah had a great combine and shot himself up into the first day. He can settle in at right guard and challenge Cooper Carlisle.

63. New York Giants: DaJuan Morgan, S - North Carolina State
Morgan is not a finished product. He has the raw skills and the attitude to be one of the better safeties in the league. He's shown flashes in coverage and in helping out against the run. He is one of those players who thinks he can do it all on the field, and probably can with the right coaching.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chiefs will not trade out of that 2nd round spot if they don't even have their L-OT yet.

Armin said...

Regarding the Chiefs not trading down without drafting an O-Lineman, I think you make a great point, but in the context of this particular mock, I disagree. In my opinion, for what it's worth, at #35 it was becoming evident that they could move down and nab one of the 2nd tier linemen, instead of nabbing one of them early. This way they add an extra 3rd rounder so they can maybe add another offensive linemen in that round. If they can drop out of the 5th overall pick and get to the 10-12 area (while picking up some valuable picks), they can look at some of those first tier guys. I love Branden Albert, but I may be biased, because I'm a Virginia guy.

Anonymous said...

this the best sints draft i have seen.....and makes alot of sense...

GOOD JOB

Anonymous said...

No trade for the Raiders. They should take Gholston if he's available. I feel in this order the Raiders should consider: Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Jake Long, Dorsey/Ellis.

Armin said...

Thanks for the comments. Here are my replies.

Saints Draft: The Saints made out like bandits in this mock. I've heard from several people that they are very high on Flowers. I love the Laws pick after missing out on the 3 DTs in the 1st round. Jerod Mayo is a nice pick. They might even put Mayo in the middle and move Vilma to the weak side and have Morgan backing up Mayo.

Raiders & Gholston: I had Gholston going there in my last mock. I see it as a likely fit. Question now is, will Gholston fall anyway. We've all heard the comparisons to Mike Mamula. Great workout numbers, but not so great on the field. Gholston could be this year's definition of "Boom or Bust". This could get interesting. My question is, if Dorsey is gone, will the Raiders take Ellis at 4? That's Top 5 Pick money for a guy that can be had a little later.

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kidder said...

What is the infatuation with Felix Jones. Seattle is much more interested in Chris Johnson in the 2nd. If they move up, it will be to get Harvey, if he slips. Seattle most likely trades down (if they can... everyone is trying to sell their pick to ATL) and goes DT, RB, TE, DE.

Armin said...

Reply on Seattle and Felix Jones. I like he idea of another DE in Seattle, because I'm not sold on Darryl Tapp. I also like what the Giants did with their pass rush happy defense (winning them a Lombardi). Seattle is a tough call though. They need a RB. Don't be overly surprised if they go with a safety (say Phillips). DT is an interesting spot. They go 5 deep with some above average DTs and serviceable vets. Here's my question though. When are they going to think about grooming a real QB? I'm not sold on Wallace and Frye.

Vikes Know It All said...

Why would oakland take Ellis when they just signed Tommy Kelly to a 50 million dollar extension and have Sands wrapped up for a nice lump sum as well???

i dont like the viking pick they wouldnt get flacco if they got a de in the first either.

Armin said...

Tommy Kelly lines up at both DT and DE in games. He can be moved around. If the Raiders take a DE like Gholston, Kelly will play inside for the majority of the time. If they land Ellis, Kelly will play outside. Sands is a bust so far.

Not really sure what you're saying with the DE comment, but I'll take a stab. Unless Kenechi Udeze is planning on lining up under center and taking snaps on offense, I'm guessing the drafting of a DE in the first won't effect their need at QB. And by need, that's if you believe Jackson is the answer at QB in Minnesota.

;)

Fannation.com Comments said...

1) As a Jet fan: THANK YOU!! I have been calling for weeks for the Jets to do whatever the Cowboys want for that six spot. Even if they don't get full value, I do not believe that Jerry Jones doesn't want D-Mac and the Jets can sell that pick 4) (even at below chart value if necessary) to the Cowboys.

2) Jammal Charles would be a good back for Indy. Someone to spell Addai is a good decision. Right?

3) The Niners will likely go with an OT in the first or second round, possibly both. They NEED depth.

4) If Oakland did make that trade to 7 OT would definitely be the pick. As for picking a guard in R2, that is out of the question....WR,DT,DE are priorities.

5) Seattle with ANOTHER RB?

6) Damm it! I rather have Clady than Williams at Left Tackle, but I do like your way of thinking. The Broncos do need a LT first then a DT next..Good blog, keep up the good work i like the trades, it makes the mock draft more realistic...

7) The Dallas trade is the WORST I have ever seen. It will not happen and they do not have the cap room to sign a player like McFadden. ALSO, even if you factor in Dallas getting Pacman, they still need a CB and a better WR than Jordy Nelson. Throwing away two 1st round picks for an unproven RB when we already have a starter is a joke.

8) Sorry brother, Dallas is NOT going to trade up to get McFadden....they can NOT afford him. Their cap is too tight this season and the bonus would be in the range of 10+mil. Dallas is going to stand pat and draft a CB and RB late Round 1. The ONLY thing Dallas might do is trade one of their Round 1 picks to Cincy for Chad Johnson in light of today's trade demands. Since he WILL NOT report at all, Cincy will have no choice but to deal him.

...great work Armin...

kidder said...

Armin,

Comment on Seattle pick:
I would LOVE for us to take Brohm. If for nothing more than to trade him to Detroit for Roy Williams. Through in Mo Mo for a 5th rounder (#144), and we go like this:

#25 - Brohm (Traded to Detroit for RW)
#55 - Chris Johnson (RB)
#86 - Brad Cottam (TE)
#121 - Chris Ellis/Jeremy Thompson (DE)
#144 - Carlton Powell (DT)
#189 - David Vobora (OLB)
#233 - Taylor Melhaff (K)
FA - Alex Brink (QB)

kidder said...

Armin,

Comment on Seattle pick:
I would LOVE for us to take Brohm. If for nothing more than to trade him to Detroit for Roy Williams. Through in Mo Mo for a 5th rounder (#144), and we go like this:

#25 - Brohm (Traded to Detroit for RW)
#55 - Chris Johnson (RB)
#86 - Brad Cottam (TE)
#121 - Chris Ellis/Jeremy Thompson (DE)
#144 - Carlton Powell (DT)
#189 - David Vobora (OLB)
#233 - Taylor Melhaff (K)
FA - Alex Brink (QB)

kidder said...

pardon the dual post

Anonymous said...

I'm with you on the Raider pick with Ellis but using thier #62 pick on a guard?? did you think that through? Carlisle is their most stable guy on the line! Maybee an OT but a guard?? That is beyond stupid.