Tuesday, February 12, 2008

NBA Mock Draft: Version 1.0

Despite it still being early February and both collegiate and professional basketball not even half-way through the meat of their seasons, it’s never too early for a mock draft. Not for me at least.

I’ll stick to the 1-round mentality right now. However, over the coming weeks we’ll be enhancing our draft previews, coverage and mock drafts here at PHSports.

Rather than simulating a lottery, I’ll take records as of Friday, February 8th. I’m also going to have to assume several underclassmen and international talent are coming out. Fear not, all the cool kids are doing it!

Comments, questions, concerns? I’ll take one of each please. Don’t worry, I can take it.

It should come as no surprise who will be #1.
But WHO will follow?

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) Miami – Michael Beasley [SF/PF, Kansas State, Freshman]
Analysis: "Beast-ley" is going #1 no matter who’s selecting. Adding Beasley to their front line alongside Shawn Marion should re-establish the Heat as an Eastern Conference contender (yes, he’s THAT good).

2) Minnesota – Derrick Rose [PG, Memphis, Freshman]
Analysis: Despite drafting Randy Foye two years ago, Minnesota won’t pass on the true point guard of their future. Rose’s size and playmaking ability are sorely needed to aid frontcourt punisher Al Jefferson.

3) Seattle – Eric Gordon [PG, Indiana, Freshman]
Analysis: Bypassing Jordan at center, Seattle needs a playmaker out of the backcourt to feed the ball time and time again to superstar-in-the-making Kevin Durant.

4) Memphis – DeAndre Jordan [C, Texas A&M, Freshman]
Analysis: As enticing as backcourt depth is, the Grizzlies need size and strength in the post after trading Pau Gasol. Rudy Gay, Mike Miller and Mike Conley Jr. already establish perimeter and point guard talent on an extremely raw roster.

5) New York – OJ Mayo [PG/SG, USC, Freshman]
Analysis: Somehow assuming Isiah is back again, he’s going to make the most idiotic pick possible. Not needing another ego nor another potential 2-guard, Mayo will likely be too good of an ego for Zeke to pass up.

6) Los Angeles Clippers – Jerryd Bayless [PG, Arizona, Freshman]
Analysis: With Kaman’s contract in question and Brand’s health no longer a guarantee, it might make sense to target a big man. However, I see the run on point guard continuing as the Clippers tab the talented Pac-10 freshman (if only for added insurance against the recovery of Shaun Livingston).

7) Charlotte – Donte Greene [SF, Syracuse, Freshman]
Analysis: 7 straight freshman? You got it. Greene’s size and shooting ability dwarfs that of the “stache”, Adam Morrison. While center and point guard could each lob for attention here, Greene’s size is a mismatch that Michael Jordan is looking to exploit.

8) Milwaukee – Danilo Gallinari [SF, Italy, International]
Analysis: 1a and 1b on the international scene are Gallinari and Nicholas Batum. The Italian wins out due to his versatility and outside range. Already stacked with plenty of developing youthful talent, might Milwaukee be better pressed to add a veteran presence to their rotation?

9) Philadelphia – Roy Hibbert [C, Georgetown, Senior]
Analysis: Finally, an upperclassman goes. In a dogfight with Brook Lopez and Hasheem Thabeet, Hibbert’s experience wins out for a team in desperate need of a new big man.

10) Chicago – Nicholas Batum [SF, France, International]
Analysis: Dropping way off of pre-season expectations, I bet Chicago would gladly trade this pick to dump either Ben Wallace’s contract or last year’s selection of Noah (to be fair, the jury is far from out on the Gator). The slasher Batum is able to get to the hoop and draw immediate attention. He’d be a nice international pairing with former 1st-round pick, Thabo Sefolosha (who Chicago is slowly getting up on).

11) Indiana – DJ Augustin [PG, Texas, Sophomore]
Analysis: Do you recognize anyone from this roster outside of the likely gone Jermaine O’Neal? Probably not. Waiting to see which of the talented point guard might slip, a new run begins instead with the gritty 5’11” Augustin.

12) Sacramento – Darren Collison [PG, UCLA, Junior]
Analysis: With Artest, Bibby and others potentially absent from this roster well before draft time, last season’s Spencer Hawes selection remains a head-scratcher. Despite the need for a post presence, adding Kevin Love to this rotation is a mistake. A new point guard is needed to feed the depth at the swingman position (Martin, Garcia, etc.).

13) Portland – Chase Budinger [SF, Arizona, Sophomore]
Analysis: With Oden returning next season, it’s almost as if he team has the #1 overall pick already. At #13 though, the Blazers have several interesting options. Taking Budinger is a flier, as some feel he has top 5 talent, but his combination of outside shooting and good character should bode well for the new-look Blazers.

14) Houston – Brook Lopez [C, Stanford, Sophomore]
Analysis: Admitedly, this may be a little too low for Lopez. However, the center position may have to take a backseat with so many point guards and teams who need a playmaker at the position being available While Yao is here to stay, the frontcourt in Houston needs depth and youth immediately.

15) New Jersey – Kevin Love [PF, UCLA, Freshman]
Analysis: Here begins the slew of Eastern Conference “playoff teams” with losing records. With Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson all on the trading block, it’s clear this team isn’t building around the recently acquired Stromile Swift (right?). However, until one of those three perimeter-based players departs, the likeliest of routes taken is with a big, powerful body in the post. Enter Love, whose passing abilities are enough to keep him ahead of the skinnier Thabeet.

16) Phoenix [from Atlanta] – Darrell Arthur [PF, Kansas, Sophomore]
Analysis: Still part of the Joe Johnson deal, Phoenix will miss out on not grabbing a potential top-5 or 10 pick from the suddenly overachieving Hawks. Obviously needing to replace recently-traded Shawn Marion, Arthur provides athleticism in the paint.

17) Washington – Kosta Koufos [C, Ohio State, Freshman]
Analysis: I refuse to believe this team can contend – even with Arenas, Butler and Jamison healthy – with Brendan Haywood as their center. However, is this the right fit for Hasheem Thabeet? I’m still sipping the Hatorade. Instead, I feel this team is going to find a versatile big-man who can cause mismatch issues. Enter Koufos, the Buckeye with the difficult task of replacing Greg Oden.

18) Toronto – Hasheem Thabeet [C, Connecticut, Sophomore]
Analysis: With a roster with a grab bag of talent, a big body is desperately needed to command presence in the post. Enter the man who I feel will sleep, somehow, seven or eights picks past his potential. Thabeet may need to add weight, but he is a menace in the paint with his long arms and consistent shot-altering capabilities.

19) Cleveland – Chris Douglas-Roberts [SG, Memphis, Junior]
Analysis: Hard to believe that at 4th in the East your still picking in the teens, isn’t it? The Cavaliers clearly need the type ofplaymaking ability that they never received from Larry Hughes. While his defense and shot selection have drawn ire from the experts, CDR isn’t afraid to have the ball in his hands late in the game. That’s a good thing with LeBron drawing constant triple teams.

20) Golden State – Sam Young [SF/PF, Pittsburgh, Junior]
Analysis: The current 8-seed in the West, Golden State isn’t likely to retain Webber past this season. Combining that with short-term deals for reserves Kelenna Azubuike, Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus and the calamity of drafting Patrick O’Bryant (yuck), the Warriors roster is aging quickly. While Young’s stamina and overall playmaking ability have come into question at times, I think this guy will wow scouts in the pre-draft camps. He’ll win out over Hansbrough in a need pick scenario for Nellie’s crew.

21) Denver – Tywon Lawson [PG, North Carolina, Sophomore]
Analysis: It’s likely Denver is targeting backcourt help. However, is it in the variety of a perimeter-based 2-guard or potentially a speedy point guard that can slide Iverson over to the 2? Talent will likely win out in such a case, thus I’m bagging some of the free-shooters and going with the cat-quick Lawson (surprisingly, the first Tar Heel taken).

22) Orlando – Courtney Lee
[SG, Western Kentucky, Senior]
Analysis: 22 picks in and we have our second senior and our first true mid-major star taken. With a little help from Draft Express, Lee has been hyped around some part of the nation as one of the most complete wingmen in the nation. Who is he likely to replace? One JJ Redick.

23) Memphis [from LA Lakers] – Tyler Hansbrough [PF, North Carolina, Junior]
Analysis: Part of the package in the potentially soon-to-be-infamous Pau Gasol deal, Memphis had better grab solid value after nearly giving away a superstar. Whether they keep Mike Miller or not (rumored to be clamoring to become a Maverick in recent days) is essential to who they add to their first 1st-round selection (Jordan, in this draft). While their offensive philosophy will not be established immediately, the Grizzlies will seek the most talent remaining on the board. Since Hakim Warrick isn’t their future at the 4, Hansbrough will be a nice backbone on this roster at the 4-spot off the bench.

24) San Antonio – Serge Ibaka [PF, Congo, 18 years old]
Analysis: Something tells me they won’t be the 7th-to-last team to select. However, a position like this one allows them to search for either more international talent that they can wait on or perhaps a polished collegiate veteran. Ibaka could just as easily be coming out in 2009 as he is in 2008. His length and San Antonio’s patience could allow the 6’10” swingman time to bulk up or improve a shaky jumpshot.

25) Utah Jazz – DJ White [PF, Indiana, Senior]
Analysis: With AK-47’s future cloudy at best, the Jazz need more big bodies to add to their rotation of Boozer, Okur and Millsap. Not to mention, Kyle Korver’s insertion fills a lot of questions about their 2-guard play. White used last off-season to excel on an underachieving USA Collegiate team and could use this March Madness to remind everyone there is a talented Hoosier besides Eric Gordon.

26) New Orleans – Bill Walker [SF, Kansas State, Freshman]
Analysis: Easily the feel-good story of the season, a lot of eyes will be on New Orleans in the playoffs and as they enter next season (presumably in New Orleans again). Depth is needed at nearly every position on the court, specifically in the frontcourt. The question may become whether potential or production is needed more. Despite 2 ACL injuries in a young career, Bill Walker has too much upside to pass up in a CP3-led offense.

27) Dallas – Ryan Anderson [SF/PF, California, Sophomore]
Analysis: What the Mavs do prior to the trade deadline is crucial to their off-season activity. With names like Kidd, Miller and even Wallace as possibilities to arrive in Big D, what does that mean for a once-perceived youth movement? Anderson can step at the 3 or 4 position off the bench and deliver an above-average shooting game between 12-18 feet. Honestly, this pick may be more of a crapshoot than any other late-first rounder.

28) Seattle [from Phoenix] – Nathan Jawai [C, Australia, 19 years old]
Analysis: Part of the odd Kurt Thomas deal, Phoenix clearly isn’t interested in investing any type of money (even barely over 1 million a season) on a late 1st-round selection. As for the Sonics, they’re already looking at a top 5 pick and potential eye candy at the point guard position. Another obvious need is a big man and what better place for Seattle (Robert Swift, Johan Petro, Mohammed Saer Sene) to look than internationally? It’s just too easy for the Australian “Baby Shaq” to find his way to a crowded Seattle import-center position.

29) Detroit – Tyler Smith [SF, Tennessee, Sophomore]
Analysis: We return to the Eastern Conference. The Pistons have drafted wisely in recent years and have a bench blended with veterans and youth. The balance has to be found between an international prospect that they can wait on and a seasoned post presence from the college ranks. Smith may be undersized, but he’s likely to see plenty of March exposure and demonstrate his athleticism.

30) Boston – DeVon Hardin [PF/C, California, Senior]
Analysis: A lot depends on their playoff performance, although the Big 3 won’t be broken up under almost any circumstances. Despite the emergence of Big Baby and Leon Powe off the bench, the Celtics are likely to target a big man who can share minutes with Kendrick Perkins. Whether international or domestic, the Cs have options. AJ Ogilvy in Vandy has disappointed in SEC play, so it’s DeVon Hardin (who I honestly see going before 30 in all likelihood) that falls into the Celtics’ lap.

Rush is the most talented guy left OFF my board. Right?
Agree/Disagree? Who did I snub? YOU tell ME!
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

There is still plenty of talent that unexpectedly slipped out of the 1st-round (Brandon Rush of Kansas), international talent many peg for a first-round appearance (England’s John Riek), and other names (Joey Dorsey of Memphis, Kentucky’s Patrick Patterson, Alabama’s Richard Hendrix, and Kyle Weaver of Washington State) who have a ton to prove in pre-draft camps.

Not to mention a certain guy who one of our writers loves: Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin.

While we still have a way to go, for some of us (ahem, Knicks fans), next year is all we have.

Until next time…


nyfan07 said...

great article,but the bobcats have a 28 year old sf by the name of Gerald Wallace and will pick a Center with the pick

Paymon said...

I'm in the same boat as nyfan. Although Wallace plays more of the PF position in Charlotte, SF may not be an immediate need as they've selected SFs in Dudley and Morrison (long-term concern) in successive years.

Clement - Since you get to watch Greene a lot, what do you believe are his greatest strengths on the defensive side of the ball (other than being long)?

Clement said...

To be honest, his defense leaves something to be desired.

However, he can extend with 3s and 4s who like to play on the perimeter.

His rebounding may be a little underrated, but he often doesn't wish to bang with the bigs.

He is a better help defender than 1-on-1. He'll also block a shot or two a night.

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