Monday, November 19, 2007

PHSports BCS Rankings & Bowl Projection

Clement filling in for the remainder of the season

Another week has come and gone and yet another Top 5 (two, in fact) team has lost to an unranked opponent.

Credit: Despite the torn ACL injury suffered by then-
Heisman frontrunner Dennis Dixon,
Oregon did not win a game which they had no business losing.
Source: Yahoo! Sports

So now, Kansas assumes the #2 BCS spot. It appears Hawaii is the only undefeated team who is not in line for a BCS title shot.

Of course, things are going to get a little tricky for Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk. In fact, it’s going to get downright brutal. Next weekend pits them against their toughest opponent of the season, #4 Missouri at a neutral site in Kansas City.

I still can’t help but think names like Kareem Rush and Jeff Boschee would be more likely to light it up during such a November affair.

As for the rest? WVU, the Buckeye, and a host of others are only a few twists and turns away from a BCS title shot.

By the way, here is the craziest scenario I can think up:
-LSU loses to Arkansas.
-Georgia loses to LSU in the SEC Title game.
-West Virginia loses to UCONN.
-Kansas loses to Missouri.
-Missouri loses to Oklahoma.
-Arizona State loses to USC.
-Virgina Tech loses either to UVA or Boston College.

That leaves Ohio State and countless two-loss teams in the mix. And one ticked off Hawaii-team potentially. Wow.

We wouldn’t have it any other way…

Our view on pre-season rankings
Everything you saw back in August and September were simply suggestions by individuals who are supposed to be more knowledgeable than you or me. These “suggestions” serve as a reference point that allow for pundits without this season’s game tape to go off of.

How this ranking works?
This ranking will not be like a poll, which often drops a school’s ranking by a minimum of four spots for any loss regardless of circumstance. We will do our best to look at the full body of work. If you consistently win in unimpressive fashion, then I’ll note it. If you demolish teams and then produce a 60-minute brain fart on the gridiron, then I might forgive it to a degree.

Why only rank the top eight teams?
In a fantasy world, these top eight teams would participate in a playoff system, which would be played at seven current Bowl sites. If only the university presidents bought into this just and highly lucrative manner in which to crown a national champion.

1) Kansas: Not that LSU did anything directly to lose the #1 spot, but Kansas is undefeated and in the Big XII. Sure they didn’t play Texas, Oklahoma or Missouri (yet). They’ll get their shot at two of those teams. After witnessing upset upon upset, any undefeated team at this point deserves the #1 spot.
2) Louisiana State: As talented as any team in the nation, they still have a dangerous duo of Run DMC and Arkansas, as well as the SEC East Champion. Fortunately, for the Tigers, that can’t be Florida. While Georgia is as hot as any team in the nation, a second look at Tim Tebow on a neutral field is not what the Tigers want en route to a potential BCS Title game return. The soon-to-be rumors of Les Miles to Michigan will be more than enough of a distraction.
3) Missouri: While I like to support the Mountaineers, I credit Missouri’s potential remaining schedule as more than enough reason to push them into the #3 spot. With dates against Kansas and possibly Oklahoma (both on neutral fields), the Tigers could be just as shocking a BCS Title game participant as the Jayhawks. Interestingly, they do trail WVU in the BCS, but one has to believe they’d pass Pat White and Co. with two wins over such steep opponents.
4) West Virginia: With Oklahoma playing the potential ultimate spoiler, the Mountaineers will have an anxious few weeks of viewing the Big XII Title Game assuming they defeat UCONN. In years past, that wouldn’t be an issue. However, with a loss, they’re not even going to a BCS Bowl game. Pressure, anyone?
5) Georgia: As impressive as Ohio State’s defense was last weekend, the Bulldogs are my highest riser this week, thanks in large part to a stud set of backs (spearheaded by a former track-star freshman named Knowshon) and an impressive SEC run. Waiting for the outcome of Tennessee/Kentucky, Georgia remains a tasty treat for any BCS Bowl looking for an at-large bid.
6) Ohio State: Locked into the Rose Bowl and perhaps more. Interestingly enough, the Buckeyes road to the BCS Title game doesn’t seem all that unrealistic. While several teams would have to lose, stranger things have happened this season. By the way, holding Michigan at home to less than 100 total yards was stifling.
7) Arizona State: Whispering quiet under the radar, the Sun Devils are one more win (against USC) from the Rose Bowl. Another one-loss team with dozens of scenarios for the BCS Title game, the Devils need to be focused and prepared for a spoiler-ready Trojans squad.
8) Oklahoma: As bad as their defense looked against the Red Raiders, Oklahoma can ruin not only seasons but also ascendant football programs. While their own dreams were dashed in primetime, the winner of KU and Mizzou may go in as a slight underdog to Bob Stoops’ squad. That’s assuming they beat Oklahoma State.

BCS Bowl Game Projections
Remember, we don’t assume any further games with these weekly projections.

BCS National Championship Game
Kansas vs. LSU

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia

Fiesta Bowl
Missouri vs. Arizona State

Rose Bowl
Ohio State vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl
Georgia vs. Hawaii

Until next time...

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

In his column at CBS Sportsline, Gregg Doyel laid into Oregon head coach Mike Bellotti for letting Dixon play despite knowing he had torn his ACL.

Question - how torn was it?