Sunday, February 18, 2007

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 6.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

Georgetown represents one of the biggest climbers this week and I am now projecting them to be the Big East’s automatic bid. A few weeks ago, they weren’t among the field, but Hibbert and Green seem unstoppable, especially when games are on the line. The injury to Aaron Gray (status undetermined) allowed me to give the Hoyas the nod for this week. Staying in the Big East, Louisville justified the Pitt slaughtering on Monday at Peterson [where Pitt almost never loses] by shell-shocking Marquette in Milwaukee on a buzzer-beating 25-foot shot.

Three changes in the land of the non-BCS conferences take place. First, despite Gonzaga’s valiant effort in a loss to Memphis, two home losses in the space of a week when the national microscope was magnified on them following the dismissal of Josh [S]Heytvelt (16ppg, 8rpg) puts them 1.5 games behind Santa Clara in the West Coast Conference and out of the current at-large picture. Second, VCU showed zero poise versus Bradley, and unfortunately, this is a microcosm of the last three weeks since their loss at Hofstra. Meanwhile, ODU seems to find a way to win no matter what the situation and have the fundamentals down pat. For those reasons and many others, we have the Monarchs projected to win in Richmond. Third, Jackson State regained first place in the SWAC, so they’re once again projected to participate in the “opening round game”.

The controversial inclusions are Drexel and Appalachian St. Appalachian St. got the nod not only due to their win at Wichita St., but also because Vanderbilt, a team they knocked off, defeated Florida. As for Drexel, they are a road machine and the selection committee loves that. After laying a major egg at William & Mary, the Dragons overcame their offensive woes behind the shooting of Mejia and the inside game of Elegar to defeat Creighton in Omaha. If both teams win out and lose in the finals of their conference tournament to the current projected champions, both will be at the whims of projected conference representatives who must take care of business during Championship Week.

The Big Ten middlers – namely, Purdue, Michigan St., and Illinois - should suffer for either scheduling only home games and/or cupcakes during non-conference play. Ultimately, a 4th team should separate itself at the conference tournament.

Seed

East

South

Midwest

West

1

North Carolina

Florida

Wisconsin

UCLA

2

Ohio St.

Georgetown

Kansas

Texas A&M

3

Washington St.

Southern Illinois

Memphis

Pittsburgh

4

Nevada

Virginia Tech

Vanderbilt

Duke

5

Marquette

Air Force

Virginia

Kentucky

6

Butler

Oregon

USC

Indiana

7

Texas Tech

Boston College

Maryland

Stanford

8

Arizona

Louisville

Creighton

UNLV

9

Alabama

Texas

BYU

Missouri St.

10

Xavier

Tennessee

Villanova

Winthrop

11

Old Dominion

Purdue

Georgia

Appalachian St.

12

Oklahoma St.

Drexel

West Virginia

Notre Dame

13

Holy Cross

Davidson

Akron

Santa Clara

14

Pennsylvania

Texas A&M – Corpus Christi

Oral Roberts

Long Beach St.

15

Vermont

South Alabama

Marist

Austin Peay

16

Delaware St.

Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.

E. Tennessee St.

Weber St.

Seedings
1s: Florida, Wisconsin, UCLA, North Carolina
2s: Ohio State, Texas A&M, Kansas, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Washington St., Pittsburgh
4s: Nevada, Duke, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
5s: Kentucky, Virginia, Air Force, Marquette
6s: USC, Indiana, Butler, Oregon
7s: Stanford, Boston College, Texas Tech, Maryland
8s: Arizona, UNLV, Creighton, Louisville
9s: BYU, Alabama, Missouri St., Texas
10s: Tennessee, Villanova, Winthrop, Xavier
11s: Old Dominion, Georgia, Purdue, Appalachian St.
12s: West Virginia, Drexel, Oklahoma St., Notre Dame
13s: Akron, Davidson, Santa Clara, Holy Cross
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Texas A&M CC
15s: Vermont, Marist, South Alabama, Austin Peay
16s: E. Tennessee St., Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

In: Texas Tech, Louisville, Appalachian St., Drexel, Santa Clara
Out: Clemson, Kansas St., Florida St., VCU, Gonzaga

Last Four In: Appalachian St., Drexel, Oklahoma St., Notre Dame.
Last Four Out: Michigan St., Illinois, Bradley, Kansas St.
Next Four Out: Georgia Tech, Arkansas, Clemson, VCU

Summary
ACC: 6
Big East: 6
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
Big Ten: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 2
Southern: 2

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Year of the Jesuit, Pay?

Sum said...

You're not the only bracketologist to do this, but I'm kind've perplexed as to why. Ohio State is #2 in one poll and #1 in another. How come it gets a 2 seed in your brackets?

Paymon said...

I currently have Ohio State as the number 5 overall team (top 2 seed). Of their three losses, all are to 1-seeds (UNC, Wisconsin, Florida). They also lack quality wins.

With that said, a win against Wisconsin may change things.

Anonymous said...

Maryland should be higher than the lowest 7 seed. They've re-established the form they demonstrated in non-conference play. I see them as a mid-6 or higher and probably a #4 come tourney time.

Paymon said...

Georgetown is getting solid play out of their guards and Green/Hibbert have been remarkable. The freshmen look comfortable, after struggles early on. Beating Pitt is a must in terms of beefing up their resume.

The Terps are on their way to a 4th straight ACC victory (up 12 with under 8 to go v. FSU sans Toney Douglas). Knowing the Terps since the national title, they can lose the next 3 or win the next 3 and the ACC tournament. I'll choose to let the story develop and seed them accordingly.

Anonymous said...

"Beating Pitt is a must in terms of beefing up their resume."

Check.