NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Atlanta at Arizona

Atlanta Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do allow Matt Ryan to tee it up deep to Michael Jenkins and Roddy White a few times. Arizona's pass defense was ranked 22nd in the league and can be picked on within reason.

Do give Jerious Norwood his 10 touches. I don't know if the guy can handle the load of a starter, but he is one of the most explosive backups in the league, and he should be able to break either a run or a screen pass for a long gain if given the opportunity.

Do pressure Kurt Warner early and hard. Kurt fell into the "extended slump" portion of his career via getting rushed and hit hard ... remind him of those hits or else he'll make you pay.

Don’t ignore Tim Hightower. He's like the boogey man ... if you shine the lights on him, he can't hurt you.

Don’t be afraid to play with 5 DBs on occasion. Kurt Warner knows how to find open receivers, even if it's the 3rd Down RB or the backup TE.

Arizona Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do make use of Steve Breaston early. If he becomes a factor in the first half, it'll force Atlanta to divert their attention from Fitzgerald/Boldin or even Hightower onto Breaston, and will open up the field even more.

Do stack 7 men in the box on defense. Atlanta relies heavily on the rushing attack to open up the passing game and allow rookie QB Matt Ryan to ease into his "ice mode." If Arizona can stymie the run game early and force Matty Ryan to go to the air too early, it's their best chance.

Do get fancy on special teams. Maybe let Larry Fitzgerald return a kickoff or punt, or something. This is playoff time ... roll up your sleeves and be creative.

Don’t rely on Kurt Warner's aged arm early in the game. The running game isn't the Cards bread nor their butter, however if they can establish 3.5 ypc early on, it'll keep the Atlanta D on its toes.

Don’t forget that you're an NFC West team playing an NFC South team. The NFC West was arguably the weakest conference in the league this year, so even though Arizona has home field, it hardly has an advantage in this game ... play like you're the lower seed with a chip on your shoulder.

Key Matchups:

When Atlanta has the ball
RB Michael Turner vs. OLB Karlos Dansby
As I noted above, Atlanta must establish it's running attack to ease the transition to playoff mode for Matt Ryan. But Arizona will undoubtedly have Karlos Dansby breathing down Michael Turner's neck from the getgo. Dansby had 119 tackles on the season, leading the Cardinals. If Turner can escape, this game won't be close.

When Arizona has the ball
QB Kurt Warner vs. The Entire Atlanta Defense
It's no secret: Atlanta's defense is not that good. Ranked 24th overall, 21st against the pass and 25th against the run. For an experienced play maker like Kurt Warner, this should be a lot of fun. Atlanta will have to realize that Warner will make a few plays on them, but if Warner cannot lead his offense to TDs on 2 of the Cardinals first 3 possessions, that'll be a victory for Atlanta's D.

Intangibles:

Time Travel
No, not like Uncle Rico and Napoleon. However, Atlanta is traveling from the Eastern Time Zone to the Pacific. No team got screwed as much by jet lag and travel this year as the Arizona Cardinals. This is, perhaps, where home field might actually be an advantage for the Cards as it protects them from traveling east for the game. Maybe it's payback time...

Motivation
As I mentioned in the FourCast this past week, the Falcons have definitely been through the ringer from the Vick through the Petrino fiascos. Yet this year, the team has been on a mission to shake off the bitter past, and that mission has led them into the playoffs. Arizona, on the other hand, is finally back in the playoffs after years of futility. Which head coach will be able to inspire his team prior to the coin-flip?

Final Score Prediction:
Atlanta wins, 24-20.

Finding the Next Manning-Harrison Connection

I grew up in the '80s and watched the beginning, the evolution, and the end of the Montana-Rice combo. It was a thing of pure beauty from start to finish ... Joe Cool dropping back, finding the greatest WR of all time cutting across the middle, or gliding down along the sidelines, and finding a way to place the football directly into Jerry's arms, time and time again. How fitting that the one time that Joe Montana didn't win a Super Bowl MVP award, Rice was the one to receive it. Sure, Young-to-Rice resulted in more touchdowns (and was a dynamic combo in and of itself), but Montana-Rice was the original to me ... and who knows? Would Rice have developed to be so great without the tutelage of Montana? Sadly, however, that connection ended after time, and many wondered if we'd see such a bond between QB and WR ever again.

Which duo will be the next to carry the torch of awesomeness?

Of course, the late 1990s and this decade brought us the Manning-to-Harrison tandem, which proceeded to break the marks set by Montana and Rice. Like Montana and Rice, Manning and Harrison developed the bond that allowed them to know what the other was thinking before he thought it. And, of course, it led to many amazing passes and pass receptions for the viewing pleasure of NFL fans. But, alas, it seems that this bond is singing its own swan song, with Harrison missing most all of last season, and with neither of them at 100% this year. So, the question before the NFL is, will we ever see another fantastically prolific QB-WR duo? And if so, is that tandem together in the league right now? I'm going to venture out and analyze four potential duos that might soon vault to that level.

1. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall

Even though the season is young, and the two have only played one game together this season, this is the trendy pick. Both are young and dynamic players in their third seasons. Cutler has a cannon of an arm, and is a tough player who willed himself through a 40 pound weight loss, caused by diabetes, last season. His grit and playmaking abilities, in my opinion, remind me of a less-spastic Brett Favre. The question remains in his football intelligence, though that should be determined by season's end. Marshall is a playmaker through and through. Eighteen catches in his first appearance this season says enough. However, unlike Harrison, he's not the quiet type, and does have a bit of the T.O. "i love me some me" mentality, which could lead to excessive temper tantrums down the stretch, thereby diminishing his relationship with Cutler.

But, the strongest argument aside from their individual capacities, in my mind, that these two can become the next Manning-Harrison, stems from that brazen personality of Marshall. Last summer, when Marshall injured himself through his wayward antics, Cutler didn't hold back. He called out his #1 receiver in the public eye. While most may see that as a source of friction, I see it as the type of "calling out" that exists between two people who respect each other and hold one another in high regard ... like a guy telling his close friend to shape up. If I'm right in my reading of the situation, this duo should have many seasons of success before it, barring intervention by free agency.

2. Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress

This list couldn't be complete without including the younger Manning brother as a potential heir to his brother's spot. It took Eli four seasons to catch the Super Bowl win that it took Peyton nine seasons to grasp, and Archie has always said he feels Eli was the better player ... maybe there's something to that. Plaxico is no slouch either. Sure, I enjoyed referring to him as "Plexiglass" for his first few seasons, thanks to his countless injuries. But his tough play through injuries during all of last season earned him lots of respect. His talent was never a question, but he has excelled past where I had him ranked.

Eli, in his fifth year, has finally matured into a leader and has developed the calm swagger requisite for a QB to attain elite status, though he's still a total dork. That Eli has reached a higher level of play at the same time Plax has finally stepped up into a #1 WR role bodes well for the Giants and very well for the potential of keeping a Manning as part of the NFL's top QB-WR combination.

3. Trent Edwards and Lee Evans

Trent Edwards is only in his second season, but he has developed a solid relationship with his fifth-year wideout. The thing I like about this team is that Evans had three years to mature as a receiver before Edwards came along, much like Harrison having a two-year head start over Peyton Manning. This gap lets the receiver aid in tutoring the quarterback, thereby allowing Edwards the opportunity to not only learn how to be a good QB in the NFL, but also how to be a good QB for Evans.

Of course, there is less of a body of evidence to base this on than there is the Cutler-Marshall combo (the requisite "M" last name is also missing from this duo), but the situation is one that I like a lot. Even if it does not excel to the levels of Manning-Harrison greatness, it is one that will still excel for a few years.

4. Matt Ryan and Roddy White

This is probably the biggest gamble I'm taking, but then again each of these is a gamble. Matt Ryan had an awesome finish to his college career, and had an amazing start in the NFL, tossing a 62-yard touchdown pass on his very first professional throw. Roddy White is a talented fourth-year receiver who has the tools to be able to make it as a premier wideout. Unfortunately, this duo only has 120-minutes of game experience to be analyzed, so I cannot really say much. However, I can point to the six times they have connected for 113 yards, an average of nearly 19-yards per reception. That's not exactly the stuff of legends, but given the 2:1 run:pass ratio used by the Falcons thus far, the numbers aren't shabby. Ultimately my gut wants me to include them as the fourth option, given their individual talents, that White has three seasons already under his belt, and that Ryan seems to have a good football head on his shoulders.

Honorable Mention

If I were to include a fifth tandem, it would likely be Brees-Colston, however Brees has been too inconsistent over his first seven seasons and Colson will miss the next six weeks or so. I just don't see it. I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. They have a lot going for them, but I'm not sure I see the possibility of that "connection" that is necessary to reach Montana/Rice or Manning/Harrison levels. Also, there are other duos capable of great successes, such as Romo/T.O., Brady/Moss, and McNabb/Jackson. However, in each of these pairs, there is one player who has at least reached the 10-year mark on his career (T.O., Moss and McNabb), which doesn't bode well in hoping for numerous years of awesomeness as a QB-WR duo. But still, they do get some props.

Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 1

If you're in a haze from the plethora of football posts you've seen here as of late...check out Pay's latest work (posted yesterday).

Now back to our regularly scheduled program...

Well look who’s back!

I’d love to pretend you’ve missed these weekly NFL picks and fantasy “insights”; however, I’m far from that gullible.

Instead of buttering you up to start of this first-of-the-season post, I’m getting down to the nitty gritty just as quickly as I can.

Take that 5,000 word posts!

Only the late, great Hunter S. Thompson can ramble like ME!

Credit: Sam Seder Show

NFL Picks: [0-0-0] Wipe the slate clean!!!
…all spreads are courtesy of Yahoo! Sports...

Seattle @ Buffalo (-1)
If this game were in Seattle, I gotta think the spread might be up to 5.5 in their favor. While Buffalo has a healthy Marshawn Lynch and has tried to revamp the lines, Seattle’s offense seems a total unknown with Julius Jones and Nate Burleson the only skill players I recognize right now. Even so, this will be a big road win for the NFC and one of its favorites, the Hawks.

Dallas @ Cleveland (+5.5)
I don’t buy Cleveland winning a weak NFC North. I do buy Dallas winning their first playoff game in forever (96?) and then LOSING before the Super Bowl again. Maybe I’m getting a little ahead of myself though. Dallas covers this...easier than you think. I hope K2 doesn’t break his leg like he did in their last meeting.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-3)
Normally most “experts” don’t touch tricky divisional openers with a pesky spread. Not me! I’m calling a PUSH (lame!), which means the ‘Aints win a pivotal Week 1 divisional game behind the leg of their kicker (whomever that is).

Saints fans are all but desperate for Bush to return to his high-flying antics of his rookie season.

Credit:NFL.com

Carolina @ San Diego (-9)
A certain staff writer loves him some Panthers, although I gotta believe he had this as one of their four losses. I’m on board too (at least on that accord); however, don’t forget how effective a healthy Jake Delhomme can be. Whoops, Steve Smith is still suspended. Chargers in a romp, in what might be Merriman’s only game of 2008.

***Upset Special***
Minnesota @ Green Bay (-2.5)
While I highly doubt Tarvaris Jackson cares the Vikes wanted Favre on their side for this matchup, I do favor the Cheeseheads in this emotional opener, I think. In the end, after flipping a coin and losing it somewhere on my office floor, I’m deciding to stick by the team with a healthy Adrian Peterson (but for how long Pay?). Take the Vikes outright for the MNF upset. Oh yeah, avoid the other MNF stinker too.


3 Must Starts and Must Sits

…START…
1) Donte Stallworth burned the Big D secondary last season up the middle for a big-time TD…and he’ll do it again this season (albeit in a different uniform). Betting against Cowboys FS Roy Williams is a wise move in fantasy football.
2) Dwayne Bowe might pile up 100+-garbage yards or more when his team is down forty to the Patsies, especially sans Assante Samuel this season.
3) Matt Ryan might not be the worst start in a 2 starting-QB league (who doesn’t do this yet?). The rookie played in a smart system at BC and has the right type of opponent for me to smell a potential “ugly” shootout.

Ummmm...yeah.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

…SIT…

1) Larry Johnson is too high of a pick for most to risk sitting (even against the Patriots). As for his counterpart Laurence Maroney, search for better options. Brady wants to prove that (whichever) foot is just fine and Belicheat knows how lethal Touchdown Tom is inside the 10…or anywhere for that matter.
2) I’m not buying the pre-season hype for Calvin Johnson to supplant Roy Williams in Detroit as their go-to-guy. I foresee a quiet afternoon for CJ. TD-less for sure. Prove me wrong Calvin.
3) Owen Daniels and Tony Scheffler are flash in the pan picks in fantasy at tight end. I don’t like either of them until they start producing more often than once every 6 weeks.

2 Guys to WATCH Intently

Kevin Smith may be the new (RB) man in Detroit…for now; yet, I’m wondering if Coach Marinelli might become a little too infatuated with (the slow and rusted) recently acquired Rudi Johnson. While Detroit is unlikely to make any significant noise in the standings, it’s two backs (sorry Tatum) may have a fantasy word or two worth checking in on early on.

Introducing...the Tatum Bell collection.

Credit: Travel Now

Trying to be as productive as possible…so I cut out all the useless jibber-jabber.
Well, some of it.
You happy?

Enjoy opening weekend, NFL and fantasy-wise.

Hopefully neither of your teams are out of it after this week.
(Gulp)

Until next time…