NFL Championship Weekend Pre-Game Analysis: Philadelphia at Arizona

Philadelphia Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do knock the stuffing out of Kurt Warner. Yes ... I'm repeating myself ... AGAIN. Neither Atlanta nor Carolina listened to me and see what happened to them. Props go to Mike Florio at PFT who reminded the world of 12/01/2002 ... the day the Eagles showed the world how to stop Kurt Warner.

Do pay close attention to the common mistakes that Atlanta and Carolina made on offense against the Cardinals. Atlanta ran 24 times and threw the ball 40 times. Carolina ran the ball 15 times and went to the air 35 times. That equates to 2 key mistakes made by each of Arizona's postseason opponents thus far: 1) Forfeiting any chance at winning the time of possession battle; 2) Stepping away from what they did best (which was running the football). Don't go all pass happy (HINT ... that message is for Andy Reid), but at the same time, don't give up what you do best. So incorporate those screens to Westbrook and Buckhalter ... but let them run it up the gut too.

Do make use of DeSean Jackson in every aspect of the passing game. That means, let him run quick slants, let him run some out patterns, and definitely let him just sprint downfield a few times. Arizona has some talented DBs (read: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), and moving your most talented WR to different spots throughout the game will enable him to keep the secondary guessing.

Don’t let Larry Fitzgerald get you down. He WILL make some phenomenal catches throughout the game, even if you have 5 guys covering him. So WHEN he makes those catches, pat him on the ass and compliment him ... but only after you've tackled him HARD. The other key is to force all of his catches to be tough grabs ... do NOT leave him wide open (like Carolina did all day long).

Don’t let Donovan McNabb forget the benching. Dude has been playing with a massive chip on his shoulder since the Baltimore game. He should have carried that chip since the T.O. drama unfolded in Philly ... but he didn't. Now that he is carrying it, don't let him forget it ... as long as it's there, McNabb will remember that he has something to prove ... and it can only be proven with a victory on February 1, 2009.

Arizona Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do keep the motivation up. Nobody expected you to win against Atlanta 2 weeks ago, let alone be hosting the NFC Championship game. You were underdogs at home to Atlanta and were 9.5 point underdogs to the Panthers. After two impressive wins, you are at home again, and AGAIN are underdogs to the Eagles (by 3.5 points). If that's not locker room board material, I don't know what is.

Do keep on executing your playoff game plan. On offense you have mixed it up quite a bit, and actually ran the ball 15 more times than you passed it last week! The shift away from a pass-heavy offense has befuddled opponents thus far. On defense, the incredible showing thus far has everyone drawing comparison's to the transformation that the 2006 Colts defense went through between the regular and post seasons. Stick to the game plan this week ... it's worked so far, why shouldn't it work again?

Do watch the Redskins/Eagles game from December 21. Washington played a very effective scheme against the Eagles. Even if the receivers hadn't dropped a half-dozen of McNabb's passes, the Skins were the only team to effectively contain McNabb and his offense after Week 12.

Don’t expect Larry Fitzgerald to have the same game this week as he did last week, especially if Anquan Boldin isn't back in the lineup. Philly has one of the best (if not the best) secondaries in the NFL. There will not be many (or potentially any) wide gaps for Warner to find Fitz through this week. The only way to create the mismatches is to spread the ball around early.

Don’t ignore either Edge or Tim Hightower. Last week Edge had 3 more carries than Timmy, but finished with 19-yards less. That's OK. The youth/experience 1-2 punch will serve you well in trying to wear down Philadelphia's front seven. If each back runs at least 15 times at the Philly D, those guys will be dead tired in the 4th quarter.

Key Matchups:

When Philadelphia has the ball
Rookie WR DeSean Jackson vs. Rookie CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Both young men were highlighted by Armin in his Rookie Year End Report, although Jackson didn't make the top-10 for his side of the ball. Cromartie, on the other hand, was the #3 defensive rookie, by Armin's standards. These two young stars will definitely go head-to-head at least a few times on Sunday, and the outcome could very well hinge on whether Jackson beats Cromartie for a TD, or whether Dominique out-leaps DeSean for an INT.

When Arizona has the ball
QB Kurt Warner vs. DEs Trent Cole and Darren Howard
This was actually a tough call, because the WR/DB matchups will be solid as well when the Cards have the rock. However, in order for the receivers and the secondary to have a chance to battle it out, Kurt Warner will have to be able to get the ball downfield. Trent Cole and Darren Howard, however, have other plans for the future spokesperson for Depends. The two DEs combined for 19 sacks on the season, and they have a coordinator in Jim Johnson who has a PhD in bringing the pressure on opposing QBs. If Warner can avoid the pressure, it will be a tiring day for the Eagles secondary. If, however, Warner is reminded of that cold Philly day in December 2002 when he was sacked 8 times and picked off twice ... well then I guess the Eagles will be going to Tampa.

The product endorsements will never end ...

Intangibles:

Start Time
So I made a mistake last week. Okay, I made many mistakes last week. However, the one I'm thinking about is when I focused so much attention on Arizona's poor performances on the East Coast. What made it a mistake was that I ignored the fact that all of the Cardinals games out east in the regular season had 1 PM start times, whereas last week's game was in primetime. As one of the Fox commentators noted (sorry, can't remember which one), Kurt Warner has a fairly elaborate and intricate routine on gamedays, which involves studying game film, going over the playbook, time for personal reflection, as well as other components. A 1 PM game on the East Coast translates to a 10 AM game out west, thus compressing the time that Warner has to prepare for kickoff. So, the question for this week becomes: will a 12 Noon kickoff time give Warner enough time to go through his normal routine?

Injuries
Yes, this is a cliché intangible. However, I'm only using it in reference to two players: Anquan Boldin and Brian Westbrook. The extent to which each athlete, and therefore able to perform to the best of his ability, will determine how effective his offense will be. At the same time, both teams have proved themselves capable to win without these star players. But this is no ordinary game, this is the Conference Championship ... and both defensive units will be out for blood. Arizona needs Boldin to play at full strength and Philadelphia needs a solid showing by Westbrook.

Sum Picking Arizona Playoff Games
I have now picked the Cardinals to lose each playoff game, and have been wrong twice. Will the opposite of my prediction occur again? Look down to see what I say ... and you may want to place money on the exact opposite result.

Final Score Prediction:
Philadelphia's defense powers the way to another attempt at the Super Bowl: 27-13.

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Philadelphia at Minnesota

Minnesota Do's and Don't's:

Speedy Viking wideout Bernard Berrian - with CBs behind - is a view Brad Childress has to hope to see a 1 or 2 times this weekend.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Do your best to pop big plays downfield early and often for Bernard Berrian. The speedy wideout has started to slowly earn the mammoth-contract he earned this past offseason. The guy is also capable of making the 12-15 yard catch, too. While Philadelphia has the best safety in the NFC (Dawkins, of course), Assante Samuel can be beaten downfield without help. It won't be easy, but Berrian has enough speed to break open a route or two. One of the best luxuries of a stud RB like Adrian Peterson is a defense's relaince on stacking the box with an 8th or even 9th defender.

Do allow Antoine Winfield to play wherever he is most comfortable on the field. As talented a cornerback in the NFL, I no longer consider him to be more hype than hope. Poor analogy aside, Winfield can play the run extrmely well and is the type of guy who could slide into the slot and shadow Brian Westbrook. Tough job, but you know he's more than up to it.

Don't allow Donovan McNabb to get too comfortable in the pocket. If McNabb is rattled early and starts chucking ground balls, the Vikings can turn the pressure on the wideouts and tight ends to get open or for McNabb to force a pass or two; especially if the rush D shuts down Westbrook/Buckhalter.

Don't worry about Adrian Peterson and his recent bout of fumbilitis. I don't need to ellaborate. Except...feed your workhose. Forget about next week. There's no reason APete doesn't demand 30+ carries on Sunday afternoon. Wait, I just ellaborated. Dang.

Don't make any mistakes in the punting game, especially when DeSean Jackson is involved. Avoid allowing punt returns tacking on any unnecessary points in a game that is likely to be decided by one posession or less.


Philadelphia Do's and Don't's:

If McNabb starts well, this game will be over well before halftime. Mark it down.
Credit: CNNSI.com

Do what has been working as of late. Feed Westbrook and Buckhalter until it works, even if it's in the passing game. If the Vikes rush D is up to the task, slip in screens for each back and allow DeSean Jackson a go or two in the Wildcat formation. Open it up...with diversity.

Do your best to put the game on Tavaris Jackson's shoulders. With your secondary playing so well, stack the box and put as much pressure as possible on Adrian Peterson. The fumble "issue" has to be somewhere in the back of his head (I think). Not to mention, a lot of players on this team (especially at the skill positions on offense) haven't seen the NFL Playoffs yet.

Do not target LJ Smith on big plays in the redzone. He sucks. A lot. A whole lot. Now I needed to ellaborate.

Do not push David Akers too far if the game is on the line. He's far from clutchless (especially in the playoffs); yet, I question any kick he has over 45-yards. McNabb is no master of the 2-minute offense, so keep that in mind.
Note: With that in mind, I'm predicting Akers hits a game-winner from 44 yards. Boo ya!

Do not gameplan for McNabb to throw 30+ times. The best case scenario will be a 20-27, 200+, 0 turnover type day for Donovan McNabb. Take care of the ball, control the field, and rely on the experience you have at the QB position.

Key Matchups:

When Minnesota has the ball...
Tavris Jackson vs. Jim Johnson

Tavaris, do your best to be extra prepared for the blitz. Of course, there's no way of knowing when and where Jim Johnson is going to send his defenders. Nevertheless, Jackson better know two words by heart: check down. Whether it's Shiancoe, Chestor Taylor, or (preferably) APete, know exactly who might slip through an open seam and be able to make defenders miss downfield.

When Philadelphia has the ball...
Brian Westbrook vs. Minnesota LBs

All too often in the past few weeks, Brian Westbrook has burned opposing defenses for HUGE plays downfield while be matched up on the outside with a not-so-speedy LB. Memo to the Vikings: do your absolute best to avoid that at all costs. Especially on short and 2nd scenarios.

Intangibles

My Best Friend...
Brad Childress and Andy Reid love each other. They're the bestest of friends. How sweet, right? Not so much. I'm wondering which Kornheiser-esque scenario plays out after Sunday: student outdoes mentor or mentor outdoes student.

1st Quarter Box Score
This is the key to everything. Seriously. Whomever has dictated the pace in the first 15 minutes will win this game. I expect a 14-0/10-3 score one way or another. If the Eagles can't score early, they won't score late. Ditto for the Vikings.

Final Score Prediction
Philadelphia wins 26-24

5 NFL Questions - Week 4

1) Will Santana Moss again burn the Dallas secondary for a huge game?
2) What is the status of Favre's ankle and the Jet offensive scheme?
3) How close will Brian Griese come to matching last week's 76 attempts?
4) How are the respective "healths" of Brian Westbrook and Donovan F. McNabb of the Eagles?
5) Can Michael Turner and John Abraham propel the hapless Falcons to a 3-1 mark?

Fantasy Football Week: Challenge #2 – Which 1st rounders were ‘steals’ and which were debacles?

Post II of III

As I mentioned in my previous post (focusing on which of THESE four teams you wanted most), this past Saturday, Armin/Sum/Pay/myself (Clement) met up at the world’s greatest unofficial draft headquarters for our yearly fantasy football draft (#1 of 2 actually) for a league we playfully have been a part of named the ‘Frank Stallone League’.

For this II post of III (I dig roman numerals) I’m going to post the 12 first-round picks (in fairness, one was auto-drafted from Yahoo’s top 500 list…can YOU guess which one it was???) from our draft.

I’ll format the rest of this post by offering up one statement that is positive, one that is negative, and the owner-factor.

Don’t fret; you’ll understand it all very shortly.
I hope.

The basics were described in my last post; however, I want to add just a few ‘reminders’ for the lazier readers who either missed the last (brilliant) posting or have short-term memory issues.

A) 12-teams.
B) 16-round ladder draft.
C) Starters include 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, & 1 DEF. 6 reserve sports.
D) Each team has two keeper allocations; 1 for rounds 4-9 and 1 for rounds 10-16. Keeper allocations CAN be traded. They DO NOT carry over to next season.
E) If you drop a player during the season, you cannot keep him next year (unless due to season-ending injury or a QB-related forced drop.)

Enough of that…let’s roll!!!

Whoops, wrong 1st-round draft.
Credit: EMQB

1^st Pick – LaDanian Tomlinson

Positive: LT is as safe a fantasy pick as there is out there. Not to mention he is resting all pre-season long and returning on a Super Bowl-contending team. He might even toss a TD or two this season for good measure.
Negative: He is closing in on 30, couldn’t play in an AFC Title game because of an injury, and doesn’t have Michael Turner behind him anymore.
Owner: Wisely, LT was the smart-money pick for this owner. Fortunately, it became easier when she realized A-Pete was already off the board (keeper allocation).

2^nd Pick – Tom Brady

Positive: Touchdown Tom was the fantasy MVP last year and remains HIGHLY valuable in a 2-starting QB league. His receiving corps remains loaded (even sans Stallworth) and there’s zero reason to doubt the reigning NFL MVP fantasy-wise.
Negative: He may or may not have foot issues, Moss has been off in recent “odd” years, and it still might’ve been too early to dismiss Manning’s fantasy-dominance over him in any other year than last.
Owner: With Laurence Maroney already in tow (keeper) for a cheap 5^th-rounder, the RB position could wait. Especially in a two-starting QB league in which owning one of the three dominant QBs is a luxury one can ill afford to pass up.

3^rd Pick – Peyton Manning

Positive: He’s the fantasy QB god of the past 5+ seasons. In fact, he’s one of the few guys who it seems almost impossible to knock drafting in any spot…fantasy-wise at least.
Negative: Romo outdid him last year, Harrison’s injury status is TBD, Peyton’s own knee isn’t 100%, and he did have several 1-TD or less games last year.
Owner: Briefly flaunting the idea of taking Romo, we all knew Peyton was a synch for the third pick. He and Wayne are as dominant as Manning and Harrison once were. In the end, there’s hardly a safer pick than the NFL’s most savvy TV personality.

You can't have one with the other...
Credit: Hogwild

4^th Pick – Tony Romo

Positive: It’s been said too many times already, but he OUTSCORED Peyton last season (I’ll say it again too!). Not to mention…he’s young, on an All-Star team, and has two targets (TO & Witten) other QBs would die for.
Negative: He’s still new at the 16-game thing, JESSICA SIMPSON, and his wideout (that’s my quarterback!) isn’t exactly the most dependable of primadonnas.
Owner: In what some claimed was a surprising move, it made complete sense given the importance of landing one of the 3 elite fantasy QBs of last year. Romo outscored Peyton last season (haha!) and has the highest of expectations in Big D to perform each and every week. Jessica Simpson is pretty hot too.

5^th Pick – Stephen Jackson

Positive: New contracts sometimes put players at ease, right?
Negative: New contracts sometimes put players at too much ease, right?
Owner: Can’t say I wasn’t just a little surprised when a noted Iggles fan traded up for the pick (right in front of me!) and then took the former holdout (okay, I wanted Westbrook). Coming off of a highly disappointing ’07 campaign, Action Jackson’s got a fatter contract and an offense that’s only get older. Nevertheless, it might be insane value at #5.

6^th Pick – Brian Westbrook

Positive: He finally became a double-digit TD guy, led the NFL in all-purpose yardage, and is the #1-weapon on an offense that can light it up (although not weekly).
Negative: His QB is never healthy, he’s a year older, he has a fatter contract too (see above), and this team needs to potentially save him for a playoff stretch drive.
Owner: It’s the consensus top-5 guy a lot of mags are calling an insane sleeper outside of the top 5 overall. In a 1-QB league (amateurs), he’s been a fixture at 2 and 3 on most boards and mocks. Given it’s pick 6, you gotta love a guy who essentially starts as an RB and WR most weeks on fantasy squads.

What I did on my summer vacation...by Marshawn Lynch.
Credit: Automobile Insurance 101

7^th Pick – Marshawn Lynch

Positive: Second-year back who the team loves to love, especially in the redzone.
Negative: Off-season stuff should be fine, yet it isn’t enthralling to read about. Traveling to Toronto for home games just seems weird to me. Not to mention that perhaps the Jets acquiring Kris Jenkins means opposing RBs will be limited to 100+ yards and 1 TD instead of the typical 150+ and 2 TDs.
Owner: Selected right before a Bill fan could’ve taken him. I love it!

8^th Pick – Frank Gore

Positive: In a word or two: Mike Martz.
Negative: In a word or two: Mike Martz.
Owner: I love the value; however, health and a certain aforementioned offensive coordinator give me the willies. Of course, the thought of a new Marshall Faulk does that too. Of course, JT O’Sullivan or Shaun Hill might have a lot to do with that (happening or not).

9^th Pick – Larry Fitzgerald

Positive: Unlike Anquan, somebody has a fat contract!
Negative: Anquan’s ordeal could be bothersome. Not to mention, the QB position is unstable at best in ‘Zona (even with solid production from Warner/Fitz last season). Health isn’t flawless for Fitz either.
Owner: It might seem a headscratcher, but value at QB had dissipated with the Big 3 gone, he has Addai in tow for a measily 3^rd rounder (keeper), and Dwayne Bowe is another insane keeper for a 10^th rounder. Nevertheless, I kinda question Fitz going in the 1^st round with guys like TO, Brees, Wayne, and even Andre Johnson around. Interesting indeed.

10^th Pick – Larry Johnson

Positive: Two seasons ago he was the most used back in the NFL and a fantasy god. That does seem sooooo long ago though.
Negative: He burned me in a league last season, never seems to catch passes, and is on a terrible team. What can I go with 60 yards a game and no TDs most weeks? What have I done???
Owner: I have stopped researching and making any sense. I knew I wanted an RB over my next top-rated QB (Brees), I’d tab TO or Wayne next round (taking TO over Reggie), and I began to wonder if I could really take Clinton Portis at #10 overall. In the end, I saw some stacked teams (already) above me and went for the highest risk/reward possible. If only Gore had slipped...

Does A-Pete lose any value with potential injury issues with Bryant "Love Boat" McKinnie?

Credit: ABC

11^th Pick – Adrian Peterson [keeper]

Positive: You could make a very sturdy argument for him being #1 overall. Slide him to #11 and you’re the happiest guy at the draft.
Negative: INJURY HISTORY. In fact, with his track record, it’d be a surprise if he played in 16 games (not counting the real playoffs, folks).
Owner: That’s why he was the ultimate 4^th round steal last season and why he’ll likely be a major steal as the 11^th overall pick this season. Damn.

12^th Pick – Clinton Portis

Positive: New offense, carefree attitude, and enhanced performance last season.
Negative: Isn’t every year in DC (5 and counting now) supposed to the major breakout statistical season?
Owner: With the next pick up-coming, it’s strong value, especially when a guy named Brees is just sitting there waiting to be gobbled up, to take a talented RB in the latest of stages in round 1.

So which two names are missing???

While I think a few might stand out – especially in a 12-team league – it has to be noted that because of the aforementioned keeper allocation rules RANDY MOSS & JOSEPH ADDAI were taken in later rounds. Another interesting caveat to consider in such an amazingly competitive league.

I’ll see you sometime this weekend with part III, focusing mainly on keeper decisions made during the draft (whether the owners knew it or not!).

Until next post…