NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Indianapolis at San Diego

Indianapolis Do's & Don't's:

Do ride Peyton Manning's hot hand. Manning should be the NFL's MVP, and the way he played over the last four games of the season should carry over. If Manning gets going with a pitch 'n' catch game, it could get ugly.

Do rest assured that the Indy defense is a whole different beast with Bob Sanders in the lineup. The defending defensive player of the year missed a lot of time this year, but even a hurt Bob Sanders brings a lot to that defense, psychologically.

Do use this game to strike fear in the hearts of other teams in the playoffs by making a statement.

Don't let that win over the Chargers on November 23rd fool you. It was a close game, but it was also a team that was 4-6 going into the game. The Chargers have confidence, and football is a sport where mind, at times, can outdo matter.

Don't let the defense sit back and do anything but attack. Regardless of Sanders's presence, the defense cannot match up size-wise against the Chargers. This is one of the speediest front seven's in the league and in the NFL, speed translates to turnovers. Freeney, Brock and Dawson must pitch a tent in San Diego's backfield.

San Diego Do's & Don't's:

Do let Rivers get started early in the passing game. His 11 to 1 TD/INT ratio over the last four games must continue if the Chargers are to have a chance in this game.

Do believe that Tomlinson has something left in the tank. While he had a down season, and showed signs of aging, Tomlinson didn't have to carry the load during the four game win streak. He might have had the rest he needed to come into this game ready to hit the ground running.

Do get the ball in the hands of Darren Sproles. He is the home run threat on this team. With a well-timed 25+ yard run/catch, he could serve as a momentum changer as well.

Don't let this game rest on the defense. It's time to run up the score and expect a shoot out. The Colts are licking their chops ready to take on this defense that did so poorly against the pass all season.

Don't allow Norv to Out-Clever himself. Draw plays on 3rd and long are far from cute when the season is on the line. The Chargers have size on the offense. They have the potential to beat up the smaller Colts defense. A heavy dose of Tomlinson, Tolbert, Jackson, Gates and Chambers should open the door for the aforementioined big play by Sproles.

Key Matchups:

When Either Team has the ball
QBs & WR/TEs vs. DBs
This classic shootout will come down to how much of a dent the DBs for either team can put in the receiving game for either team. The numbers show that this could be a hellacious shootout, but if this turns into a low-scoring game, the DBs deserve tremendous credit.

Intangibles:

Momentum
Both teams are coming off of winning streaks. San Diego won their last four, while Indy won their last nine. One would lean towards Indy in this case, but when does a team become complacent in their winning? Not trying to say Indy thinks they can put it in cruise control, but could San Diego, being on a fresher winning streak, be hitting their stride?

Defense
Not in the sense of which defense can step up and shut the other team down, but moreso which defense will make the big play that puts the ball back in their offense's hands? Don't be surprised if a single defensive play determines the outcome of the game.

Final Score Prediction:
Colts win: 43-31

Implications of Bob Sanders's Injury

As if the Colts early struggles were not enough to warrant worry, concerns about being a serious Super Bowl contender multiplied when hearing that 2007 Defensive POY Bob Sanders will be out for up to six weeks. Even with Sanders in two games this season, the Colts defensive statistics were nothing to write home about. With a healthy Sanders who played in all but one game last season, the Colts boasted a top five defense while playing in a division that had three teams make the playoffs. In 2006, the 5 foot 8, 206 pound Sanders only featured in four regular season matchups, allowing for everyone with two legs to rack up 100+ yards and at least one touchdown on the ground.

2008 Defensive Ranks for Indianapolis
Total Defense: 16th
Rushing: 28th
Passing: 4th

2007 Defensive Ranks for Indianapolis
Total Defense: 3rd
Rushing: 15th
Passing: 2nd

2006 Defensive Ranks for Indianapolis
Total Defense: 21st
Rushing: 32nd
Passing: 2nd

Looking forward to the next six weeks, Sanders will likely be replaced by backup strong safety Matt Giordano, who started four games last season and played admirably in three years of spot duty. Though he is not the dynamic safety that Sanders is, Giordano will be very serviceable in defending the pass. Yet, the major void left by Sanders’s absence may be felt immediately in stopping the run when Jacksonville, an equally hurting team, visits Indianapolis with the desire to resurrect the physical nature that has made them a regular fixture in the AFC Playoffs. Knowing this, the Colts must also rectify their inability to make holes for Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes in order to reduce the number of throws that Peyton Manning must make in order to win games. A team that cannot win either battle on the line will be a team that will be watching the playoffs at home.

Colts’ Opponents During the Next 6 Weeks
Week 3: v. Jacksonville
Week 4: v. BYE
Week 5: @ Houston
Week 6: v. Baltimore
Week 7: @ Green Bay
Week 8: @ Tennessee