The Declining Dollar and Its Effect on the NBA

There’s no secret. The American dollar has been in decline for nearly a decade. Consequently, the Euro, which was introduced in January 1999, and faltered in the early going before central banks in Europe, Japan and the US acted together to intervene, has risen from $1.1747 USD on January 4, 1999 to $1.5780 USD as of July 23, 2008. As a result, the Euro has elevated in excess of 34% since its inception. Moreover, the Euro has increased by nearly 92% since it reached its record low of $0.8225 USD on October 26, 2000.

If Carlos Delfino is getting $9M per season to play in Russia, just imagine what offers this guy would get.

Courtesy: LoveFilm

Naturally, there are many more things other than basketball that the downward spiral of the American dollar has affected. Nevertheless, we talk sports here; therefore, the conversation turns to the only American sport with a global marketing approach: basketball. Sorry, hockey fan. I ask that you not shoot pucks at my apartment. My landlord would not appreciate that.

So, that takes us to the research question: How has the dollar’s decline affected the NBA?

To me, the issue is two-fold. To those who are more intelligent and better versed in the economic realities of sport, it is manifold.

First, due to the increasing competitiveness of European basketball as well as the relative strength of currency, more and more American-based players are leaving the States. This is not a new development. It’s just built steam very quickly. Following valued role players such as Carlos Delfino and Bostjan Nachbar, Josh Childress had, according to a story first reported by Yahoo, received a three-year offer equivalent to $20M USD to sign with Greek side Olympiakos. After further reports by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Olympiakos offered three years and $32.5M, which after taxes paid by the club becomes a net salary about $6.7M per annum for Childress. That crushes the Hawks’ offer which was five years and $33M, which after taxes paid by Childress becomes a net salary of about $3.4M per year. That’s nearly twice the net salary, even when counting that the Hawks’ best and final offer started at the mid-level exception of $5.6M, which is in the ballpark of what many expected Childress would be offered when all was said and done. Did I mention that Childress can opt after each season without a buyout?

Childress: Now has 32.5 million reasons why he should finally get a hair cut.

Courtesy: HoopsVibe

In this sense, if the trend persists, benches can be thinned of talented assets (i.e. players who are 6th through 8th in a team’s respective rotation) who would earn at least 1.5 times more with a top European team compared to an NBA squad. That means younger players filling up the back end of rosters, which can be scary for teams who treasure continuity. Perhaps, this will heighten the importance the growing importance of the NBDL.

Second, as evidenced by recent NBA drafts, many European-based players are drafted and have guaranteed funds in place but never step foot in the NBA. Why? That’s because first-round picks are subject to a rigid salary structure that does not allow a number of players to experience free agency until their fifth season.

For the European-based players selected in the latter part of the first round, there is a real fear that they may never set foot on the NBA hardwood for a number of reasons – unpalatable contract, high buyout and cultural issues.

For the same players who eventually join the NBA teams that draft them, there is an expectation of immediate playing time, as many of Europe’s elite are sacrificing their pocket books for the NBA dream. As a result, some have decided to leave at season’s end and return to Europe for considerably more money.

At the end of the day, money and sports are joined at the hip. If the value of the American dollar plummets another 34% in comparison with the Euro over the next nine years, you had better believe that some proven starters may end their careers in Europe if they find it financially necessary.

The Deal of the Century???

Recently, a very good friend of mine (and savvy NBA-mind) analyzed the now infamous Pau Gasol-trade. As lopsided and ridiculous as it was (with the Grizz owner even questioning GM Chris Wallace’s move months later), when you look at it after the 2008 NBA Draft, it really isn’t as lopsided as it may have seemed. In the end, I think both teams got what they wanted.

Come on everyone, let's do the CHEST BUMP!
Credit: KB24.com

Obviously it favored the Lakers, especially en route to a Western Conference championship; however, the Grizzlies (whose biggest crime was actually trading him to a Western Conference elite) aren’t the massive idiots we might’ve thought they were.

When you consider the MASSIVE cap relief they have, the “steal of a deal” to nab O.J. Mayo for Kevin Love/Mike Miller (yes, several other “contracts” were involved) and the foundation with Rudy Gay and (either as their PG or trade bait) Mike Conley (Jr.).

Perhaps someone was watching a little too much Space Jam when they drafted "the Kwame" #1 overall.



Perhaps.


Anyways...let’s re-examine the deal.

What the Lakers got:

Pau Gasol
18.8 pts 7.8rebs 3.5asts. 58FG% 1.6blks
16.9 pts 9.3rebs 3.1asts. 53FG% 1.9blks (Playoffs)
Contract: 3yrs and nearly $50 million left

Note: True, Gasol might have been the missing piece to a Western Conference Championship, but he was exposed as very Odom-like (soft against stronger competition) once KG & Co. came calling. However, it’s likely that the Lakers (depending on what moves are or aren’t made) are pre-season favorites this season in a potentially transitioning West (goodbye San Antonio, Dallas, & Denver & hello Portland). Time will eventually tell, and only with a title or two, when the Lakers analyze the Gasol deal.

What the Grizz got:

Kwame Brown (expiring contract)
Note: Could be serviceable at only 25 for a smaller veteran contract.

How many lopsided blockbuster deals does this guy have left in him?
Credit: Lakers Topbuzz

Javaris Crittenton
Note: Young, inexpensive PG allows them to add depth in the frontcourt with possible trade of him or other PGs (i.e. Conley & Lowry). Several teams, including Orlando, were said to be “high” on him as a backup PG.

Aaron McKie (expiring contract)
Note: Player development coach in the future.

Darrell Arthur (rookie)
Note: Could fill low-post need as a potential starter at the 4-spot as early as mid-season. He has incredible value after slipping in the 1^st-round and then being dealt as part of the pick received from the Gasol deal.

Marc Gasol (2007 2nd rounder)
Note: Utility PF in the mold of a banger and garbage man with ever-refining post skills. He seems ready to play full-time in the US and could garner significant minutes, especially over Darko.

Want an early preview of Pau's younger brother Marc? Forget the Vegas Summer League. Instead, check out Spanish Olympic Basketball. El Nino!!!
Credit: ADN

2010 1st Rounder (likely a very late pick)
Note: There is value to be had here with trades or potential talent that slips a little too far (i.e. Donte Greene) or international talent that can be anticipated down the road (i.e. Serge Ibaka).

With this move and also the moves made on draft night, the Grizzlies are nearly $15 million under the salary cap. They have more spending power than any other NBA team, especially next season, when more than a few teams with money now – Clips, Warriors, & 76ers – will be feeling the crunch.

It also can be said the Grizz could, but probably won’t, target names like Josh Smith, Emeka Okafor, Luol Deng, or Andre Iguodala in a jam-packed restricted free agent market.

Considering that they now have that aforementioned talented young nucleus of Rudy Gay, Conley and OJ Mayo (who doesn’t believe he’s a star-in-the-making), it is a reasonable assumption to say that Chris Wallace didn’t really do a terrible job.

Especially, even with growing pains, the team is able to target a franchise-player early in next year’s draft. Names like BJ Mullens, Demar DeRozan, and a certain “Man Crush” Griffin might be just the talent needed to take this roster back into playoff contention.

Yes, even out West.

I suppose Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo might be well-suited to see Griffin on the Grizz in '09.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Side note…did you know!

To get Joe Johnson, the Hawks technically only gave up Boris Diaw and Robin Lopez!
Of course, by taking Marvin Williams, they gave up on this guy…and this guy!

Was the NBA Draft Lottery Drawing Rigged?

In a word, YES. When the drama unfolded and all the cards were shown, the teams who had been [most] accused of tanking games on purpose in order to improve draft position all finished three spots below what the percentages suggested. Memphis. Boston. Milwaukee. In a night, two of these teams' outlooks have changed.

First, let's take a look at Memphis. Yesterday, they dreamed of Gasol and Oden occupying the paint and imagined defense as a mandatory activity. Tonight, they get the 2nd pick among those not named Oden or Durant. At this point, they'd be happy to get their hands on the likes of Al Horford.

Second, there's Boston. I can't feel sorry for the Celtics. In early March, there was Celtics GM Danny Ainge breaking every tampering rule imaginable by talking it up with Kevin Durant's mother. Then, there was the actual Celtics, who not only shut Paul Pierce down at all the right times (all the times if you owned him in both of your fantasy leagues, but that's another story for another day), but also benched starters such as Ryan Gomes in the 4th quarter of a close game. They lost.

Third, there's Milwaukee. Now, Milwaukee could have been accused of tanking, but they had every fathomable injury occur to their best players. They were more of a mix of bad and unfortunate. In all reality, the third spot is not that much different than the sixth in this specific draft and when considering that it would be nearly impossible to trade into a top 2 position. In fact, the Bucks will save some coin in the process.

As for teams who gained the top 3 picks, they all tried to win games late in the season. The operative word is "tried".

Portland, who won the draft lottery, began placing firm building blocks for the future late this season as Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge (prior to his bout with dehydration and further issues), and Sergio Rodriguez all played well.

Seattle struggled with a full roster. They barely mustered up enough courage to take the court when Ray Allen was sidelined at season's end. In the games I watched, they didn't show signs of tanking. Conversely, they didn't have to show signs of throwing games to be awful. The likely selection of Kevin Durant will have an effect on Seattle's ownership having more pull within the city, as he becomes an instant draw in addition to Mr. Shuttlesworth.

I happened to watch as many Atlanta games as nauseatingly possible this season and while they were a very bad team, the team resembled a helpless child when Joe Johnson wasn't around and it's nearly impossible to feign that level of cluelessness. As much as Atlanta wanted to keep its pick, they badly wanted a top 2 pick. The third pick overall means plenty of research needs to be done by the Hawks brass and last year's research led to reaching for Shelden Williams with the 5th pick. They wanted the no-brainer pick and instead, they will have to act with a look forward to the future to determine which of its young core it wants to retain. The rookie contracts of Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Salim Stoudamire come to an end in 2008, as do those of Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue, and Lorenzen Wright.

So there you have it. That's the lesson for the day. Don't sit your best players in the 4th quarter just to get a higher pick for the following year. The NBA (i.e. the karma police) will get even and make sure your fans think your organization is cursed.

International Flavor: Vive le Basketball

You might’ve once known it as the National Basketball Association, but don’t forget there is a Canadian team still lingering around in Toronto. Not to mention, anytime you take a glance at most NBA rosters, you notice something less and less surprising: a ton of international players have begun to make major impacts in the NBA.

Whereas in years past there was a player or two you noticed from being born outside the US (such as a Kukoc, Divac, Mutombo, or Olajuwon)…now you notice several key players, especially the young up-and-coming ones, are in fact foreign-born.

Whether its Argentina [Ginobli & Nocioni], Brazil [Barbosa & Nene], Lithuania [Ilgauskas & Songaila], Serbia [Krstic, Milicic, & Stojakovic], Turkey [Okur & Turkoglu], or even the Virgin Islands [Duncan & Bell]…you see foreign players starting and making key impacts on NBA rosters from coast-to-coast. Even the two top MVP candidates (no, not Lebron and Kobe, American-lovers) are foreign born (Nash is Canadian and was born in South Africa and Nowitzki is German-born).

Yet, one country seems to be leading the charge with NBA-infused talent. While their Olympic and junior squads haven’t been the strongest or most consistent year-in and year-out; France is home to seven NBA players (2 of which are vital components – if not anchors - on championship-worthy teams).

So drop the Napoleon-jokes, put down your ‘freedom fries’, get over that palace in Versailles and enjoy the three courses remaining from your dinner a little bit later. Let’s check out the French impact on the NBA today…

In order of importance:
1) Tony Parker [PG, San Antonio Spurs]
-Landing a babe like Eva Longoria should be worthy enough of praise; yet, Parker is one of the elite point guards in the NBA today. He is lightning quick, near-brilliant driving to the hoop, and seems to live under tense situations with relative ease. The first foreign-born player to be named to the Rookie 1^st-team [2001], the Belgian-born Parker helped lead the San Antonio Spurs to their second and third NBA titles in 2003 & 2005. Only 24 years old, Parker will see his fair share of All-Star games, all-NBA teams, and playoff appearances. One of the top French-born performers in any sport, Parker is the heart of the French-exodus into the NBA.
Draft Selection: 1^st Round, 28^th selection [2001] by the San Antonio Spurs

2) Boris Diaw [F, Phoenix Suns]
-In one of the top trades in recent NBA-memory, the Phoenix Suns shipped Joe Johnson out to Atlanta for two future #1 picks (one of which may be a top 5 selection this year) and a 6-8 swing-man who can play just about every position on the floor (that’s Diaw of course). Unable to remain patient with their first year talent, the Hawks shipped out an invaluable swing-man who has the athleticism to run the point and the strength to post up with the majority of the 4s of the NBA in the blocks. Stepping in as seamlessly as possible during the injury to Amare Stoudamire, Diaw proved invaluable while earning 2005-2006 Most Improved Honors within the one-of-a-king Suns-system in 2006. Averaging 13 pts, 7 rebs, and 6 asts last season, Diaw (only in his 4^th season) is as lethal a 7^th man as the NBA has seen in recent memory. It will be scary to see how much Atlanta lost out on trading Diaw, a throw-in from their vantage point of that Johnson-trade, to the Suns.
Draft Selection: 1^st Round, 21^st selection [2001] by the Atlanta Hawks

3) Mickael Pietrus [F, Golden State Warriors]
-Steadily progressing from his lottery-pick status over the past three seasons, Pietrus is often a victim of a team with too much similar talent and too few shots to go around. Just try finding a shot with guys like Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, and Monta Ellis (the only one of this bunch who shoots as much as he should) on your team. Averaging around 20 mins/game, Pietrus poses an incredibly difficult matchup at the swing 2/3 position (now a must-have in the NBA). While it may take a new destination for him to truly take off (ala Larry Hughes and a certain guy named Arenas), Pietrus is a hybrid-talent who will always be able to find a job as a complementary slashing/scorer and solid team-defender. The only question that remains for the Warriors: how much does he really fit into their future plans?
Draft Selection: 1^st Round, 11^th Selection [2003] Golden State Warriors

4) Ronny Turiaf [F/C, Los Angeles Lakers]
-While Turiaf’s talent may be questioned on the terms of him being much more than a role player, there’s no denying his heart. Literally. Turiaf underwent open-heart surgery on July 26, 2005 and debuted on a NBA court only six months later. This season, his averages of 5 pts and 3 rebs have come in tough duty – aiding the Lakers in replacing the oft-injured Kwame Brown and the oft-inconsistent Andrew Bynum. After seeing his rookie contract voided, due to his heart problems, Turiaf is now one of the first big-men off the bench in the Lakers-rotation. While his future seems pretty hazy right now, in regards to being a real contributor or not, one thing appears clear: Turiaf is willing to work as hard as he can to make it in the NBA.
Draft Selection: 2^nd Round, 7^th selection [2005] Los Angeles Lakers

5) Johan Petro [C, Seattle Supersonics]
-Just another one of the four-dozen “project-laden big-men” the Sonics have drafted over the past few years, Petro seems to be the one they rely on (or at least would like to rely on) the most. Nearly eclipsing 20 mins/game as of late, Petro’s averages of 7 pts and 4 rebounds seem a bit pedestrian, but only because Nick Collison is this team’s starting center. Go figure. The 7-footer has a smooth touch in the paint, which unfortunately often lends him to being outmanned and outbodied by smaller competitors. One of the three-dozen tweener big-men in the NBA right now, there’s no telling how long Petro has to succeed in Seattle. Yet, I find it hard to believe that with his unusual body type and his impressive agility that defenders will be able to keep him away from 10 pts/8 rebs potential coming off the bench for a contending team in 2-3 years.
Draft Selection: 1^st Round, 25^th selection [2005] Seattle Supersonics

6) Yakhouba Diawara [G, Denver Nuggets]
-One of the more fun names to pronounce through the league, Diawara has become a favorite of Nuggets head coach George Karl. Or at least it appeared that way before the trade deadline. A rookie, who played a few years ago for Pepperdine, Diawara used a strong stint in the Vegas league in 2006, to earn a spot on the Nuggets roster. Already impressively, he was one of the key leaders of the French team that took home the Under-18 2000 European Championship. After playing professionally in France and Italy, Diawara became the Nuggets energy-guy in the backcourt off of the bench and one of their only true perimeter-based defenders. Struggling a bit to find minutes with JR Smith staying and Iverson arriving in Denver at the deadline, Diawara has unfortunately been off the court much more than he’s been on it as of late. Interestingly enough, he could be an important “throw-in” to an off-season Nuggets trade that could enable one team to land a potential game-changing player for little-to-nothing. This guy will be a starter in the NBA in the next 5 years…mark it down.
Draft Selection: Undrafted

7) Mickael Gelabale [F, Seattle Supersonics]
-Entering his first season in 2006-2007, Gelabale has become one of the more promising pieces in the Seattle’s rather ominous rotation. His 6-7 frame allows him for some interesting matchups in the 2/3 spot; although he seems to stay away from inside-play a little too much for his size. He has clearly become more comfortable with the perimeter-game in the NBA. The real transition to watch with Gelabale will be from year 2 to year 3, when he may become one of the first people off the bench for the Sonics. While he lacks the soft-touch and smooth inside-scoring instincts of a Boris Diaw, Gelebale could very well see Pietrus-like numbers, and a similar swing-man impact, in the following years. Then potentially it could be Pietrus-type money for the French-born rookie talent.
Draft Selection: 2^nd Round, 18^th pick [2005] Seattle Supersonics

By the way, it won’t end here: Nicolas Batum, the top international prospect in the opinion of most experts (23 points on 9-13 shooting at the 2007 Nike Hoops Summit), is an 18-year old freakish athlete with a nose for the hoop and 7’1 wingspan. Easily a top-10 pick in 2008, he now is starring with French pro-team Le Mans Sarthe Basket…oh yeah, he’s only 18 years old. Look out for this one.

Batum could be one the top-prizes in the 2008 Draft.
Credit: FibaEurope

So there we have it. Rose-colored glasses in my analysis? Hardly. What I do see are seven talented players – some already impact players, while other are still waiting for their opportunity or perhaps a new location to get more minutes – who might’ve never seen the NBA ten years ago. Whereas role players and journeymen dominated the NBA landscape for years in spots 8-12 on the roster, now the 1^st and 2^nd rounds of the NBA Draft – both for pretenders and contenders – often include important investment and involvement in the stock of foreign-born players (especially since high school kids must spend at least one year in college).

What should come as no surprise to most NBA fans or even novices these days, France is one of those country’s leading the international charge.

Until next time...

'06 NBA Draft Lottery: Perceptions into Reflections

We all know it isn’t completely fair to judge an entire draft class, no less the lottery (aka “teams who weren’t very good that year”), only one-season after the draft. It might be even more unfair to do it only 75 games into their first-season. Yet, it’s fun. Not to mention that, news flash, the majority of these players have seen limited playing time, had a limited impact, and been a part of one of the weaker & quieter draft classes in recent memory.

Of course, this could - and most likely will - change. Maybe not immediately, but give them some time. If you want a real laugh, take a look at the second-round. Find me someone who’s not a reach, overachiever in college, physical-freak, or a foreign-born project you’re rolling the dice on. That’s what makes the first-round so interesting, as teams are often targeting the more sure-thing, impact players.

Or so they hope.

Upon even the briefest of reflections, it seems consistently apparent that none of the fourteen first picks from the 2007 NBA Draft have had much of an impact so far this season. That is, for a playoff-bound team (sorry Brandon Roy). In fact, only two of them [Chicago’s Tyrus Thomas & Orlando’s JJ Reddick] are playoff-bound. The status of Bargnani is in the air; however, I do owe him some conciliation as he may play a rather important role if he can become healthy enough to be inserted back into Sam Mitchell’s playoff-rotation. As for Redick and Thomas, enjoy the bench most of this post-season.

Without too much more banter, let’s take a quick peak into the top fourteen picks, a brief prognosis of their current progress (or lack thereof), and who I would’ve taken (not in hindsight, but then and there). Remember…I’m not a stat-geek either.

Been hard to be geeked-up for a rookie, other than Roy, as of late.
Credit: NBA.com

Note: I know a majority of these picks were via trades and whatnot; yet, I’m going to assess each pick as if the team had that selection and could’ve tabbed any (available) player it saw fit.

Lottery Selections: [in order]
1) Toronto Raptors: Andrea Bargnani [Italy via Benetton Treviso]
-Averaging a quiet, yet confident 13 points a game, Bargnani settled well into the Raptor-rotation. Fortunately for Andrea and the team, their GM has swung some amazing moves since joining the reigns (including the drafting of the 7-foot Italian). While he won’t be the next Dirk, this kid has shown confidence inside and outside the 3-point line in key moments during his rookie season. Despite a major setback from an appendectomy, Bargnani could see 20+ minutes/game in the playoffs as a bench-contributor for a young, potent team.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Andrea Bargnani [The best selection for #1 was the Italian.]

2) Portland Trail Blazers: LaMarcus Aldridge [Texas]
-Slow to adapt to the NBA pace, and perhaps the buzz from the sticky-icky in the Portland locker room, LaMarcus has slowly developed into a minor contributor; especially during the recent, and untimely, absence of their top big-man, Zach Randolph. Seeing around 20 minutes a night as of late, Aldridge appears to be a strong compliment who should develop into a 15 and 8 guy most nights in a year or two. The key for him will be developing more post-moved and toughening up, both on defense and on the boards.
Who I Would’ve Selected: LaMarcus Aldridge [The team had a pretty stellar draft in ’06. Please don’t sleep on Span’s Sergio Rodriguez. Tabbing this 7-footer was a great start, as they’re not easy to find with athleticism like he often displays.]

3) Charlotte Bobcats: Adam Morrison [Gonzaga]
-I hate how the Bobcats draft and HERE is a perfect example. While a confident shooter in college, Morrison has struggled with real-defenders lined up against him. These “great college-talent” picks aren’t always the correct move. His FG% has dipped well under 35% the majority of the season, which is as unacceptable as his disturbing pale-complexion or that ridiculous mustache he rocks. While it may have sold a few tickets after draft day (or so ESPN said to DEATH), this team is in much greater need for a playmaking 2-guard.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Brandon Roy . He’s the playmaking 2 they desperately need, and may not find picking AGAIN in the top 5, in the 2007 draft. Matt Carroll isn’t a starting #2. Okay?

4) Chicago Bulls: Tyrus Thomas [LSU]
-Trading down from the 2-spot, which they acquired in the infamous Eddie Curry-deal, the Bulls eyed Thomas from start-to-finish. While his attitude and lack-of-an-outside-shot prevented him appearing on-court much of the first-half of the season, Thomas has come on of late and even poured in some rather impressive performances. Chicago is a team loaded with talent who doesn’t require many more lottery picks. While Thomas is an interesting fit, he really doesn’t seem to fit the Scott Skiles-mold more often than not.
Who I Would’ve Selected: LaMarcus Aldridge. Stick at 2 and draft the 7-footer. They could’ve avoided Ben Wallace or just used another big-body to tutor behind PJ Brown.

5) Atlanta Hawks: Shelden Williams [Dook]
-Recent reports have finally leaked that Williams was “promised” by Hawks management to be drafted here. Why? I have zero idea. The team was clearly in desperate need for a true point guard or a true center. Often closer to the D-League than 10 minutes a night on the court, Williams has struggled to adapt to NBA offensive and defensive schemes. Viewing this guy more than an 8 and 6 guy, best-case scenario, is a little difficult for me honestly.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Randy Foye or Marcus Williams. Trade down and take your pick of a true, confident point guard. Unless you think Anthony Johnson is your future.

6) Minnesota Timber Wolves: Randy Foye [Villanova]
-KG needed a big-name to join; yet, there wasn’t one in this draft. Yet, there were two steady performers who could become confident #2s behind him in 2-3 years in Brandon Roy and Randy Foye. Minnesota has a plethora of 2s and 3s, yet no true #1. Foye seemed an obvious pick. Foye has been quiet, but will be find a T-Wolf. Whether or not KG sticks around to help him…is another story.
Who I Would’ve Selected: I would’ve stuck with Brandon Roy. Sure, he isn’t a PG. But he’s a dynamic scorer and playmaker, much more so at his size than Foye. KG played best with a healthy Cassell, who I see much more of in Roy than I do Foye, even if he isn’t a PG like Foye.

7) Portland Trail Blazers: Brandon Roy [Washington]
-Two top seven picks is enticing, regardless of the draft. Not to mention that they actually sold Boston on trading FOR Sebastian Telfair (among some other minor details) for this pick. With the knowledge of Aldridge already locked in, this selection was eased with the knowledge that they could pull a trade for Brandon Roy. At #7, especially with who follows in the draft, this was a silly-steal of a selection. In case you didn’t know, Roy is the runaway Rookie of the Year…and the only real stud from this draft thus far.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Brandon Roy. And I would’ve got down on my knees and thanked somebody important for this golden opportunity. Stupid Danny Ainge. Check that: MORONIC Danny Ainge.

8) Memphis Grizzlies: Rudy Gay [UCONN]
-Some were shocked by the Battier/Swift deal for this selection. Some thought it was brilliant. I didn’t think it was the right move for the Rockets. Houston could’ve said goodbye to Rafer Alston and welcomed Marcus Williams. As for Memphis, selecting Gay (with tons of upside) was the easy selection. With Hakim Warrick in-tow, the team didn’t need another big-man right next to Gasol with this pick, and a swing-man like Gay seemed the right pick.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Rudy Gay, for all the reasons stated above.

9) Golden State Warriors: Patrick O’Bryant [Bradley]
-A high riser due to a solid NCAA Tournament, O’Bryant has been plagued by injuries all season long. Yet, he isn’t a lost cause NOR is he a diamond in the rough waiting to be exposed. TBA is the best description.
Who I Would’ve Selected: I would’ve made a MAJOR move. Trade B-Diddy (fast!) and move this pick with him if needed. Or keep it and select Marcus Williams, a true PG, to run the point. Erase Diddy’s bad health and try and allow guys like Ellis to flourish with a pass-first PG.

10) Seattle SuperSonics: Mouhammed Sene [Belgium via RBC Verviers-Pepinster]
-Just lot their previous “big-man project selections” [Robert Swift & Johan Petro], Sene can’t find minutes and can’t find the tools necessary to work with whatever system the Sonics are running these days. I hated this pick and still do.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Rodney Carney could be a nice 3 to replace Rashard Lewis next year. Ronnie Brewer could be a nice tough-guy to add into the rotation. Cedric Simmons has plenty of “upside” as a big-man. I just hope they draft Hasheem Thabeet next year and then trade up for Roy Hibbert. What a big-man lineup that’d be alongside Ray Allen.

11) Orlando Magic: JJ Redick [Dook]
-Oh goodie, it’s JJ-time. He got over that DUI/DWI early in the year, but will struggle mightily in the NBA over the years. He can’t put the ball on the floor, against a defender outside of the ACC and its officials, and often is a step, or three, behind. Orlando really goofed up a lottery pick that could’ve aided a developing, young team.
Who I Would’ve Selected: I would’ve taken Marcus Williams and allowed him to team with Jameer Nelson in a sick-backcourt duo. Either that or draft an athletic-freak like Carney or potentially a solid-6^th man like Simmons/Armstrong/Brewer.

12) New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets: Hilton Armstrong [UCONN]
-With guys like Chandler and David West, it’s hard for Hilton (and 15^th pick Cedric Simmons, out of NC State, to grab much PT at all). While everyone can use big bodies, Armstrong isn’t very meaty and the duo-picks of potential-based big-men seemed a little odd. Realizing that Peja is so soft (ditto for Bobby Jackson) more could’ve been done with these picks.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Combine the two first-rounders and move way up OR tab Carney (again, I mention him) or Brewer to be a more athletic or tougher compliment to a young, talented team.

13) Chicago Bulls: Thabo Sefolosha [Italy via Angelico Biella ]
-Another part of a trade, the Swiss was a nice upside-pick for the Bulls. They easily could’ve dealt the pick, but liked the potential in the young guard who handle the ball well and appeared to be a competent defender. With Duhon ahead of him as the #2 PG, he still has slid into the rotation here and there enough as a rookie.
Who I Would’ve Selected: With a luxury pick like this, I like taking the pick laden with potential. However, I also like stockpiling big-men if you can. Cedric Simmons would’ve worked here or potentially grabbing Marcus Williams, if only for trade-bait for later.

14) Utah Jazz: Ronnie Brewer [Arkansas]
-A complete, 5-tool player in college, everyone knew Brewer had upside. Most of us also knew it’d take a bit of time. It’s hard to judge the limited time Brewer sees on a very strong, capable Jazz lineup. Yet, this is the type of depth you like to have and the correct pick for a team that never seems to have a true grasp on a starting 2-guard as of late.
Who I Would’ve Selected: Nice pick here.

So that’s the first-round. I talked up Marcus Williams and Rodney Carney plenty, two guys who have looked solid as of late. Ironically enough, the biggest losers of the lottery were probably the Celtics. Although, as usual, the Hawks gave them a run for their money. I don’t see any picks quite as idiotic as the Hawks passing up on Chris Paul in ’05…but as always, only time will tell.