Friday, August 29, 2008

Fantasy Football Week: Challenge #3 – Keepers Keepers Keepers

Post III of III

Despite a somewhat flimsy premise, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the unofficial ‘Fantasy Football Week’ I sprung upon the readers of PHSports this past week.

First up was a comparison/contrast – sorta – of four drafted teams (my own, Armin’s Sum’s, and Pay’s) in a league (1 of 2) we participate in yearly.

Second was a look at the first round – all 12 picks – alongside a bit of analysis, review, and critique of decisions made. Just a bit.

The guys even sandwiched talk of a popular fantasy topic of the week: Rudi Johnson.

For my final post in this series, I bounced between targeting potential keepers that were kept from last year’s draft AND those who might be potential keepers for next year.

Fortunately, I live in the present and wanted to focus on the here and NOW!
Luck you…

As a refresher, here are the ‘keeper’ rules in our league.

Keeper Rules to KNOW and LOVE!!!

A) Each team has two keeper allocations; 1 for rounds 4-9 and 1 for rounds 10-16. Keeper allocations CAN be traded. They DO NOT carry over to next season.
B) If you drop a player during the season, you cannot keep him next year (unless due to season-ending injury or a QB-related forced drop.)

Some say I'm the harshest critic out there since this guy...

Here are ten names of ‘keepers’ I noticed in this year’s draft.

…remember that due to league rules, the 4th round is the first round a keeper can come into play for next year…

I’ll stick with 5 rounds to make it short and sweeeeet.

4th Round

Darkhorse: Darren McFadden

-Run DMC in part of an interesting platoon currently in Oakland, in the same backfield as a second-year QB (Russell), and as enigmatic an owner as you can imagine. Nevertheless, his talent makes you wonder if a late 1st-round spot isn’t completely out of the question once the ’09 fantasy draft emerges.

Longshot: Reggie Bush
-Of course, this one involves…ME! Bush had a funky second-year after a “quasi-breakout” rookie campaign. Hardly a #1 back (i.e. 25+ carries a week), Bush knows he doesn’t want to be labeled a BUST (standing right next to former USC teammate Matt Leinat) and has too much talent (or is just speed) to not be an impact playmaker week in and week out (I HOPE!!!).

Seriously Reggie, can we try and get that yards per carry average up a little? Reggie? Reggie?
Credit: Sportscrack

5th Round

Darkhorse: Calvin Johnson
-His physical attributes are astounding, Roy Williams was nearly dealt this offseason, and he might be ready to make that 3rd-year vault (even as a fantasy 2nd-rounder) next season.

Longshot: Jonathan Stewart
-Unless he sees a defense likened to the Skins recent pre-season effort most weeks, I really wonder that in a backfield with the still-youthful DeAngelo Williams if Stewart will make an impact this year or next…at least worthy of both selections.

7th Round

Darkhorse: Matt Ryan
-Starting QBs are a luxury – especially in a 2 QB league – and Ryan (despite his team) has a strong pedigree and will play a lot (I think) in ’08. Those are better than average odds considering Vince Young was kept for a 5th rounder this season.

Longshot: Felix Jones
-Julius Jones fans were more than frustrated at the Juice the past two seasons, and believe me it wasn’t due to a lack of touches. While Barber III is the class of the Cowboy backfield, could the rook be potentially an interesting 4th-rounder next year? Me certainly hopes so!

12th Round

Darkhorse: Brady Quinn

-Whether or not the Browns realize their potential, I’m still VERY skeptical about. Whether or not Derek Anderson is the future of this team is another GREAT question I can’t answer just yet. Either way, Quinn is a talented QB prospect and is pretty cheap (even if he doesn’t start a game), at least fantasy-wise, especially considering the keeper possibilities for the next 1-2 seasons.

I'm struggling not to label this guy a tool tool tool. Big time!
Credit: Johnston Photos

: Chad Henne
-Could one Chad one day supplant another? Possibly. Nevertheless, depending on any Phins QB in any season these days isn’t the savviest of ideas.

16th Round

Darkhorse: Ladell Betts
-Whether or not he is a Skin at the end of this season is beyond me. Nevertheless, Portis isn’t impenetrable and Betts isn’t too far removed from a 1,000 yard campaign. He burned fantasy owners last season BIG TIME, but he’s much cheaper this time around too.

Longshot: Cadillac Williams
-Injuries have rocked his career. However, Pittman isn’t a factor anymore, Dunn is OLD, and Earnest Graham isn’t exactly a sure thing. He’ll likely get chances and chances and chances from Gruden (especially being a former top 5 pick). This could be a true diamond in the rough. In the end, what is lost with this type of last round selection?

I wonder who's driving this Cadillac?
Credit: Boatnerd

Whether or not any of these 10 players make a significant impact (positive or negative) this season might not tell their true story. In fact, it might be next season that their true analysis can be viewed in clearer sight.

Until next time…


kiya said...

Hey you didn't talk about my keeper picks...oh wait I wasn't allowed to have any.

Otherwise nice analysis.

Deihim said...

i've been waiting for you to piss and moan about this. learn from the master:
* make a killer off-season deal by trading down draft position for rights to Marion Barber III
* make a mid-season deal for rights to Braylon Edwards and Jamarcus Russell
* draft Adrian Peterson in the 4th Round with the hopes that he'll be a #1 stud and get lucky with a later draft slot
* draft a guy like Santonio Holmes in the 9th and find out his value this year is higher than what you can keep him at
* make off-season moves for people who have spare allocations

and tada -- barring catastrophic, simultaneous injuries, i will dominate the regular season. all this was done with 2 things in mind. 1) to stay competitive throughout the season to put myself in a great place to start next season and 2) i had no keepers starting out (just like you) and after draft day, my QBs weren't that great (Matt Schaub and Trent Greene and NO BACKUP). so if i can pull it off, certainly you, mr. hot-shot mastur-gator, can make your mark.
just make sure it's not a skid mark.

Deihim said...

fyi, in case it wasn't obvious, that was for kiya's benefit ;-)

Armin said...

Kiya...forever the whiny B!tch.

Good thing we took this into consideration when we decided to invite him to the league.

kiya said...

No worries I am on a three year plan:
year one - have a shitty draft with no keepers.
year two - still no keepers and trade allocations for busts.
year three - supply the food at the draft and bend over multiple times.

In the end its all good.