Friday, December 15, 2006

Where does AI go now?

The 72-hour offering period for Allen Iverson is long gone and no deal has been made for the perennial All-Star. As it turns out, the NBA general managers saw through Billy King's bluff. It made no sense. The best deal hasn't come through and it won't come through. Right now, the prevailing offers are from teams who can offer expiring contracts. The attractive incentive about expiring contracts is that the team can rebuild almost immediately. I say "almost" because the Sixers will owe Chris Webber another $20 million for the 2007-08 season. A hidden incentive is that trading away the team's best player for expiring contracts of mediocre players who have underachieved or are injured, is that the Sixers will inch closer to the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft (i.e. Greg Oden).

PHSports will look at the AI suitors, what they're offering, and their status in terms of trade talks.

OUT of the running for AI: Charlotte, Sacramento, LA Clippers, Golden State Warriors
None of these teams are willing to part with young pieces of their team.

UNLIKELY suitors:

Chicago -- The Bulls are very reluctant to trade Ben Gordon. However, that may change as Pau Gasol recently told Spanish media that he wants to play for a contender. If there is a missing scoring piece in the frontline, it is Pau Gasol. If any deal goes down with the Bulls, expect the expiring contract of P.J. Brown to be included.

Dallas -- The Mavs could be included as a side team if this is a multi-team ordeal, as they hold the key to a valuable expiring contract in the form of former Pacers dud Austin Croshere.

Portland -- The new GM wants to avoid luxury tax issues for the time-being, so the rumored trade for AI or Nene are just rumors. The expiring contracts of Jamaal Magloire and Raef LaFrentz will finally be wiped off the slate in June.

MOST LIKELY DESTINATIONS:

Denver -- Joe Smith and Eduardo Najera (player option) have expiring contracts of interest and two late first-round picks (their own and Dallas' 1st-rounder).

Miami -- Same story, different team. James Posey's contract runs out at season's end; however, the Heat are unlikely to include Dorell Wright in any deal.

Boston -- They've come to close on so many occasions, including this summer. At this point, I think Danny Ainge has the bargaining chips due to the paucity of good, young players being offered by other teams. King and Ainge will need to negotiate a package deal likely including point guard Delonte West, power forward Al Jefferson, center Theo Ratliff (whose hefty salary is likely to paid by insurance due to injury), and potential draft picks/swaps.

MY TRADE PREDICTION (courtesy of the ESPN Trade Machine):

To be utterly honest, this took about six or seven tries, and it's not an ideal trade. If you have a headache, take Tylenol or Advil, and if you don't, have it by your side because I'm about to confuse. Why is that? That's because the most interested parties (Boston and Denver) are teams with salary cap issues, and conventional solutions are not at any of these teams' disposal.

BOSTON gets:
G Allen Iverson (from Philadelphia): Earns $17.2 million this season and has 3 years left on his contract.
Receives Denver's 2007 1st round pick via Dallas: At present, this pick would be the 28th pick in the first round.

PHILADELPHIA gets:
C Theo Ratliff (from Boston): Earns $11.6 million this season and has 2 years remaining on his contract. An important nugget is that Ratliff has health issues (prolonged herniated disc issues), which means that insurance will pay for his salary so long as he cannot play.
F Joe Smith (from Denver): Is in his last year of a contract earning $6.8 million.
G Earl Boykins (from Denver): Is in his last year of a contract earning $2.95 million.
G Delonte West (from Boston): Has 2 years remaining on his rookie contract earning just over $1 million this season.
Receives Boston's 2007 1st round pick: Currently, this would be the 6th or 7th pick overall; however, with AI, Boston's record is bound to improve.

DENVER gets:
F Ryan Gomes (from Boston): Is in the second year of a 3-year rookie contract earning $2 million overall.
G Allan Ray (from Boston): Is in a 2-year rookie contract earning $412k this season
F Shavlik Randolph (from Philadelphia): Is in a 1-year, $1 million contract and must consent to the trade.

No comments: