NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

This week, North Carolina is back in the top 4, knocking out Wisconsin, who needed a late three-pointer by Kammron Taylor to overcome Michigan State at home. The Heels hopped Kansas, who had a big win versus Texas, but only started their comeback following a brief injury to phenom Kevin Durant.

The big shock (to me) is Virginia Tech as a 4 seed. In my opinion, they have nowhere to go but down following their defeat at home to Clemson. They’re riding on their 6-2 record against the top 6 teams (not including them) in the ACC. If they do not impress in Tampa next weekend, they can easily fall to a 7 or 8 seed. In fact, the quality margin between 16 and 28 overall is razor-thin.

In the Valley, Creighton overcame two regular season losses to Southern Illinois by defeating them to take the automatic bid. In the CAA, craziness set forth as George Mason has beaten Hofstra and at-large candidate Old Dominion. Tonight, they seek to complete an improbable sweep of the conference’s top three teams after being 0-5 against these teams in the regular season. The theme of retribution resurfaces as they face off against rival Virginia Commonwealth in Richmond.

One of the most shocking yet little-spoken upsets of the weekend was Arkansas’ victory at Vanderbilt. It catapulted the Razorbacks to the final spot in the field. Clemson and Florida St. also had good weeks, which puts them within reach of an at-large bid. Meanwhile, Drexel remains in the field due to their strong road/neutral court record as well as their quality wins. Losing to VCU in Richmond is no small crime, but Drexel will likely become victim to teams on the outside who surge their way into the tournament.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (2)	West (1)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Washington St.	Maryland	Memphis	Southern Illinois
4	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Tennessee	Virginia Tech
5	Arizona	Marquette	Duke	Vanderbilt
6	UNLV	Nevada	Virginia	Texas
7	Georgia Tech	Louisville	BYU	Kentucky
8	Indiana	Texas Tech	Creighton	Villanova
9	Butler	Xavier	Notre Dame	Michigan St.
10	Winthrop	Air Force	USC	Boston College
11	Syracuse	Missouri St.	Old Dominion	Stanford
12	Virginia Commonwealth	Davidson	Akron	Gonzaga
13	Arkansas	Purdue	Holy Cross	Drexel
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Texas A&M - CC	Siena	Belmont	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Eastern Kentucky	Delaware St.

In: Virginia Commonwealth, Purdue, Arkansas, Texas A&M-CC, Siena, Belmont (in), Eastern Kentucky (in)
Out: Illinois, Georgia, Appalachian St., Sam Houston St., Marist, E. Tennesee St., Austin Peay

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Maryland, Washington St.
4s: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
5s: Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Vanderbilt
6s: UNLV, Nevada, Texas, Virginia
7s: Kentucky, BYU, Louisville, Georgia Tech
8s: Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech, Villanova
9s: Notre Dame, Michigan St., Xavier, Butler
10s: USC, Winthrop, Air Force, Boston College
11s: Syracuse, Stanford, Missouri St., Old Dominion
12s: Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga, Davidson, Akron
13s: Purdue, Drexel, Holy Cross, Arkansas
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Siena, Texas A&M –CC, Belmont
16s: Eastern Kentucky, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Old Dominion, Purdue, Drexel, Arkansas
Last Four Out: Florida St., UMass, Clemson, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Georgia, Kansas St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 3