Tuesday, October 31, 2006

PHSports: Mid-Season Rookie Review 2006

by Armin Mohajeri

Top 5 Offensive Rookies:

1) WR Marques Colston, Saints (7th round, 252nd overall): Not only has Colston been the steal of the draft, he’s also been the top offensive rookie in the league in the first half of the season. He was 3 picks away from being Mr. Irrelevant. With 33 receptions for 577 yards and 6 TDs, he’s on pace for 75 receptions, 1300+ yards and 14 TDs.


2) RB Joseph Addai, Colts (1st round, 30th overall): Addai has rushed for 447 yards while receiving for 144. He has 2 TDs (one running, one receiving). That projects to 1000+ rushing yards, 325+ receiving yards. He’s a little light on TDs (projecting to ~5 on the year), but has produced for an undefeated team.


3) RB Laurence Maroney, Patriots (1st round, 21st overall): With 395 yards rushing for 3 TDs and 110 yards receiving, he’s on pace for 900+ rushing yards for 7 TDs and 250+ receiving yards. While he has shared time with Corey Dillon, Maroney has shown flashes of being the go-to back, and has made Corey Dillon expendable for the upcoming offseason.


4) RB Leon Washington, Jets (4th round, 117th overall): In limited time, Leon Washington has put up 397 yards rushing for 2 TDs (76 yards receiving). That’s on pace for 900+ yards and 4+ TDs. However, if you were to consider that he’s really only started 3 games (arguably 4), he’s on pace for ~1500 yards. He would be up there at the #2 spot, however consistency has been lacking (based on sharing time and poor team play).


5) RB Reggie Bush, Saints (1st round, 2nd overall): Reggie Bush is currently tied for 6th in the NFL in receptions (42). He has not had an offensive TD, but has a game-winning 65-yard punt return for a TD against Tampa Bay. His 212 yards rushing and 290 yards receiving project to nearly 500 rushing and 650+ receiving yards. Add a couple of TDs to his offensive repertoire, and he shoots up to #2.


Honorable Mentions:

WR Greg Jennings, Packers (2nd round, 52nd overall): He’s been a playmaker for the Packers and one would think that if he had a QB like Tom Brady throwing to him, he might have even better numbers.

RB Mike Bell, Broncos (Undrafted): While many thought (whether right or wrong) that his promotion to starting RB in the preseason was to motivate Tatum Bell, it’s evident that despite an early fumbling problem, Shanahan has no problem turning things over to Mike Bell. He decimated the Colts defense in the second half of their game and nearly (single-handedly) put the first blemish on their record.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville (2nd round, 60th overall) & TE Owen Daniels, Texans (5th round, 98th overall): 5TDs each.

No QBs!


Top 5 Defensive Rookies:

1) DE Mark Anderson, Bears (5th round, 159th overall): Nothing like having a guy prove you right. I had this kid pegged as a sleeper who reminded me a lot of Robert Mathis (DE, Colts). Anderson has 7.5 sacks, putting him on pace to get 17+ sacks on the season. He’s also forced 3 fumbles and recovered one. He’s the edge rusher on passing downs for the top defense in the league.


2) OLB AJ Hawk, Packers (1st round, 5th overall): Hawk has 52 tackles and 2.5 sacks, projecting to ~120 tackles and ~6 sacks on the season. He quieted concerns over his lack of production in the preseason.


3) MLB DeMeco Ryans, Texans (2nd round, 33rd overall): His stats don’t tell the whole story, though he leads all NFL rookies in tackles with 63 (projected 144). Ryans is the leader of the Texans defense, making the calls from the middle linebacker position.


4) FS Dawan Landry, Ravens (5th round, 146th overall): He’s been solid, starting for the Ravens, racking up 3 interceptions (one for a TD). He has the ball-hawk mentality, and is usually around to make the tackle at the second level.



5) OLB Ernie Sims, Lions (1st round, 9th overall): The Lions drew a lot of criticism for not drafting Leinart and going with Sims. However, Sims has been all over the field for the Lions defense. He has 59 tackles and is on pace for 135.


Honorable Mentions:

SS Donte Whitner, Bills (1st round, 8th overall): The Bills raised many eyebrows by drafting this 20-year-old who was projected to go late in the 1st or early in the 2nd round. Whitner has amassed 45 tackles, one interception, while being the most solid player in the Buffalo defensive backfield.

DE Elvis Dumervil, Broncos (4th round, 126th overall): Dumervil stepped in when Courtney Brown went down. In those three games he’s put up 5 sacks. That would put him on a freakish pace…however, since he’s only played three games, he doesn’t end up on the list.

CB Richard Marshall, Panthers (2nd round, 58th overall): As the 3rd CB on the Panthers, he’s putting up similar numbers to the starters (Gamble, Lucas). My biggest question on my Post Draft Analysis was why so many teams that could have used a CB passed on him.



Top 3 Teams:

1) New Orleans Saints: I could stop at Marques Colston and Reggie Bush, but then I’d be doing a disservice to Roman Harper and Jahri Evans. Harper was on the fast track, gaining the starting strong safety position (before a season-ending injury). Evans is the starting left guard of an offensive line that’s been solid so far. There are teams that have more than 4 contributors, but this group has quantity and quality.


2) New York Jets: Leon Washington is a Top 5 offensive rookie. Two-fifths of their offensive line are rookies (Ferguson, Mangold). Brad Smith is getting on the field more and more, as the coaches figure out new ways to utilize him. Drew Coleman is the starting CB now.


3) Buffalo Bills: The Bills got quality out of their draft, but this ranking is based more on quantity. Donte Whitner, Ko Simpson, Kyle Williams, Keith Ellison and Terrance Pennington are all starters. John McCargo had a season-ending injury. Ashton Youboty has seen time in spots. Aaron Merz has started in a game. Ellison was one of my surprise picks in my Post Draft Analysis, as I felt he could be a starter on this team (which he proved me right on).


Note: I refuse to put the Houston Texans on this list, even though DeMeco Ryans, Charles Spencer, Eric Winston, Owen Daniels and Wali Lundy are all either starters or strong contributors. The fact that they took Mario Williams over Reggie Bush nullifies their standing for a top draft.

Monday, October 30, 2006

College Football's Top 8 Teams -- Version 3.0

Two weeks of football have been played and you can add USC to the list of schools whose national championship hopes have been dashed due to the lack of a playoff system. However, even if we had a playoff system, their 33-31 loss to Oregon State in Corvallis demonstrates a program in a rebuilding season whose preseason ranking was unjustifiable.

With that said, the stage is set for November 18 when Michigan travels to Columbus to face off with the Buckeyes in a battle of the two best unbeaten teams. The stage is also set for Matt Carroll's latest edition of college football's top eight teams.

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1) Ohio State: Not much to say here. Still looking excellent. Best offense in the nation. Troy Smith has a stranglehold on the Heisman right now. 22 TDs and 2 INTs. Who's ready for Nov. 18th?

2) Michigan: Not much to say here either. Took care of business. Reports are that WR Manningham will be back this week. The best front 7 in the nation and arguably the best D period. Fun stat of the week: Michigan has knocked out 4 QBs in their last 3 games.

3) Florida: This team has been the best one-loss team in the country since they became a one-loss team. This team has a great chance at finishing out the season and getting in the National Championship. A very fast defense and a potent offense to boot. With the toughest part of their schedule complete, they look to be in very good shape.

4) Louisville: The team struggled again against Syracuse, but Brohm should now feel more than comfortable for the big showdown on Thursday night against WVU. They have a couple suspensions heading into this game, but neither should be a factor. I'm excited to see how the WVU defense will handle this offense. They often count on their opponent's offense to make mistakes to create turnovers. Louisville will not be so generous. It will also be exciting to see if the speed on Louisville's D can keep up with the speed of WVU's offense.

5) Tennessee: Two gritty SEC wins in the past two weeks. The game against Alabama was closer than it should have been, but they got the W in the end. Erik Ainge has been fantastic and is getting better every week. WR Meachem is proving to be a great offensive weapon. Their upcoming games are LSU and @ Arkansas. That will prove if they are a top-five caliber team.

6) Texas: Two very good road wins against Nebraska and Texas Tech. A very talented team that now has solid wins to back it up. Colt McCoy is not only playing incredible, but playing with the poise of an upperclassmen QB. He has undoubtedly become the leader of this team. I was impressed with the way the whole team kept their composure after Texas Tech came out and jumped on them early in the first quarter.

7) WVU: Who's ready for Thursday night? A lot of this goes along with my breakdown of #4 Louisville. The offense is fast, spread out, and very hard to defend. Louisville will be far and away the best defense that this team has seen all year. They are fast and can match the speed that WVU has. But Pat White has done an incredible job of making the right decisions on the field, and that could be the difference in this game. This will also be the best offense that WVU's defense has seen all year. This Louisville offense will not make the careless mistakes that their lesser opponents have before.

8) Cal: The three point attack between QB Nate Longshore, RB Marshawn Lynch, and WR DeSean Jackson is lethal. They have scored 30+ points in 6 of their 8 games against decent competition. They have taken control of the Pac-10 with USC's loss, but it will still come down to their game against the Trojans on Nov. 18th. It took OT to beat Washington, but the Huskies have been a team that has given a fight to every opponent they have played this season.

On the radar: Auburn, Notre Dame, Arkansas
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Key Games in the Next 2 Weeks
Nov. 4:
#3 West Virginia @ #5 Louisville (on Thursday, Nov. 2 on ESPN)
#13 LSU @ #8 Tennessee
UCLA @ #10 California

Nov. 11:
#5 Louisville @ #15 Rutgers
(on Thursday, Nov. 9 on ESPN)
#8 Tennessee @ #12 Arkansas
#24 Oregon @ #9 USC

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Nick Saban: Mad Genius or Blithering Idiot?

After a season of optimism ending in a 9-7 record for the Miami Dolphins, Nick Saban was hailed as a great motivator and an excellent young coach. Less than half a season later, the Dolphin faithful decry their status as a 1-6 team, languishing in the depths of the ultra-weak AFC East division. Not to mention, they feel their coach doesn’t know how to throw a challenge flag.

All jokes aside, Saban has shown impatience in his brief stint as head coach and the majority of pundits are intimating that he is losing the respect of veteran players in the locker room. After watching Daunte Culpepper do his best Drew Bledsoe impersonation and demonstrate zero mobility inside and outside of the pocket (21 sacks in four games), Saban yanked his star quarterback when the team lost to the Houston Texans in Week 4.

Many pundits have placed scrutiny upon Saban for his decision to bench Culpepper indefinitely in favor of Joey Harrington, who had a career record of 18-37 entering the season. In turn, this almost means giving up on a playoff spot with one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. At 1-6, most people have lost respect for Saban based on his team’s performance followed by the awkward postgame press conferences that take place every week. However, I think he’s a mad genius for tanking the remainder of the season for a few critical reasons.

First, the Super Bowl hopes for Miami were far-fetched. Much of it was based on prognosticators who imagined that the same team, who won 6 straight games to end the season, was going to play a very easy NFL schedule with a weaker version of New England in the division. They lost one of the NFL’s best offensive coordinators in Scott Linehan and their starting quarterback (Gus Frerotte) who had forged a strong working relationship with Chris Chambers. Former Bills Head Coach Mike Mularkey has failed to fill Linehan’s huge shoes.

Second, Ricky Williams’ year-long suspension for substance abuse ruined the hopes of having the two-headed running attack. It’s no secret that running the ball wins games in November and December.

Third, Saban has a lot of leeway within the organization. He came to Miami from the college ranks demanding a lot of power and he delivered in his first season as head coach. I have the belief that if you cannot win the Super Bowl, then you should build for next year. While this does not exactly signify throwing games on purpose, starting Joey Harrington and increasing playing time for younger players like Derek Hagan demonstrates this belief in action. Why would Nick Saban do this?

Fourth, in recent memory, the Dolphins offensive line has never been great. They were horrible two years ago. They were only mediocre last year because Linehan capitalized on the team’s strengths in his playcalling scheme. This year, … well, you know. They stink.

This brings me to why Nick Saban -- head coach, recruiter, blogger -- is a mad genius. This year, the NFL draft will have a very strong crop of offensive linemen available. As it stands, Miami are in line for the Joe Thomas sweepstakes. While the Dolphins have seemingly traded away their 2nd- and 5th /6th-round picks for their current quarterbacks, they are still in line for talented players on Day 1 of the draft. Acquisitions on draft day will shore up holes for the Dolphins and prepare them for a potential playoff run in 2007.

Friday, October 27, 2006

Clement's Football Picks

Wow, I'm surprised Pay still lets me do these. Nevertheless, the NFL season is still relatively young and I have plenty o'time to help out my disastrously-poor record (4-11). I'm going to blame it on early-morning wake-ups (we're talking 6:30am in Richmond some days, folks) for my practicums for student teaching.

It's okay to be jealous. Now, as for football, let's take a look at last week's numbers.

Last Week: 1-4 [Kind of a revolting development.]

Had to take a step back there, but we proceed onward and upward with 5 new games to enjoy.

Baltimore @ New Orleans [-2]
Both teams are fresh off of a much-needed bye, especially for the Ravens. It appears that Air McNair, who might soon be called Grandpa McNair with his limited mobility as of late, wil suit up and play. The fans are more than rabid in the Bourbon City and I like how Sean Payton has this team playing. I might've told you I'd have eaten my shoe if I thought New Orleans would be 5-1 at this point, but here they are. And I'm sticking with the feel-good story as the 'Aints - excuse me Saints - will cover the spread and move to 6-1 at home. Who doesn't love a hometown pick?

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia [-6]
Jacksonville laid one of the bigger non Arizona-based eggs of the season last week, getting stomped by the Houston Texans. Now, while we all love the triplets of Carr/Lundy/Johnson, I'm not buying this Texans team as worthy of stomping anyone of validity. Although the Jags blasted my Jets 41-0, that was at home where the Jags are a completely different team. While I'm not sold on Stallworth being back or being a huge target, it's clear that Reggie Brown is. I hate 6 point spreads, but the Jags are horrendous away from Jacksonville and that leads me to take the Iggles to win and cover at home. 2-for-2 with those home teams. Look out.

Indianapolis @ Denver [-2.5]
Deja vu. First off, the new Denzel flick looks pretty badass. Yet, I feel like I'm having it when I'm picking this game. Let me explain - as in previous picks, I wonder if Denver can score if it absolutely needs to. While Indy's D can often resemble a very mediocre team, Denver's passing game seems to be completely lacking with the Snake. While I love Denver at home, Pittsburgh dismantled this team (with the defense playing quite well, although not up to this season's tremendous standards), and I don't think it'll be cold enough for Peyton to be rattled. I'll begrudgingly take the Colts to win and therefore beat the spread, but I'm anxious to say the least with this idea.

The Side Rant
I have a mini-beef with the hate on the Jets this week. Sure, we have the #32-ranked defense and a suspect #9-offense, but there are worse teams out there. I'm not sure if I buy a pro-Cleveland spread of 1.5, even though they are at home. Let's take a quick look at the Jets wins (@Tennessee, @Buffalo [their home opener], Miami, Detroit] and losses [@New England, @Indianapolis, @Jacksonville]. Obviously, we see four bad teams we beat and three good teams, perhaps excluding those tricky-Jags right now. Yet, outside of the Jags game, we played well on the road and should've beaten Indy. Although we could've easily lost one or two of our wins, it balances out in the end. Nevertheless, Cleveland is a mess and the firing of Maurice Carthon (who inexplicably keeps getting more jobs) won't fire this team up enough. I also don't buy CNN/SI putting Droughns at a 100+, 1 TD game after the Broncos wore him down to a bit last week. While my beef is obviously slanted, why do the Peter Kings of the world seem to dictate the Jets being hated on, soft schedule or not?

Let's move into the college realm before I get carried away.

#8 Tennessee [-4.5] @ South Carolina
I gotta admit I've always had a small place in my heart for the Volunteers, especially since they beat FSU back in 1999 (go Tee Martin) and also since my real Orange (Syracuse) suck so badly. Nevertheless, the Ol' Ball Coach has been known to own (or POWN if you will) the Vols in recent years. While I don't buy Tennessee as the #7 team, or being ranked above #9 Florida, I do buy them taking home a hard-fought double-digit victory over those lovable Gamecocks.

Georgia @ #9 Florida [-14]
Screw the SEC and the NCAA. I'm calling this what it is. The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. That is legendary and should never be stripped away. Nevertheless, I despise both teams for the most part and Georgia never seemed to beat Florida whenever I wanted them to (look above as I like Tennessee). As for this week, I expect Florida to be a bit angry and ready to take it out on the Dawgs. I can't remember the last time I took a non-Texas or USC spread this large to carry, but I am now. Take the Gators, who still have the ridiculous outside shot at the BCS-title game.

Well, it's all I can offer at this point. Here's hoping for only two wrong this week (I'd love to see Denver win and Florida to lose), but everything else can remain the same.

Wait, one more thing. I hate that I wrote this so late in the week. I was all set to call a Virginia Tech whooping of overrated Clemson (who shat all over Georgia Tech and my pick last week). Brandon Ore is a monster and Tech is usually rock solid on Thursdays (yes, I remember the BC-game earlier this year). While I am not a Hokie-fan (remember the Syracuse alliance), I can't believe this game is that much of an upset.

Now I'm done. Until next week ...

-- Clement

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Pre-Season All America

First Team
PG Ronald Steele, Alabama
SG Chris Lofton, Tennessee
SF Kevin Durant, Texas
PF Al Horford, Florida
C Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina

No huge surprises here. In fact, it matches with Gary Parrish from CBS Sportsline's top players at each position. I have Steele over James by a hair. Why? Because they matched up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament and while both played great, Steele was a better floor general. This is not the year of the shooting guard, so Chris Lofton gets the nod. ESPN television hasn't covered Durant much because of Greg Oden, but they soon will. Horford and Hansbrough lead a strong frontline who are definite first-round draft prospects should they bolt to the Association.

Second Team
PG Dominic James, Marquette
SG Richard Roby, Colorado
SF Alando Tucker, Wisconsin
PF Nick Fazekas, Nevada
C Joakim Noah, Florida

Richard Roby is the only flyer on this list. I just think he has a major chip on his shoulder because he was shaky down the stretch last season and performed poorly at the NBA draft camps. Fazekas and Tucker are early front-runners for player of the year in their respective conferences. Yeah, and that Noah guy ... he's pretty good.

Third Team
PG Sean Singletary, Virginia
SG Brandon Heath, San Diego St.
SF Morris Almond, Rice
PF Al Thornton, Florida St.
C Glen Davis, LSU

Big Baby lost a lot of weight this offseason after the embarrassment of the national semifinal against UCLA when he huffed and puffed from minute 1. Morris Almond is the truth. He can light it up against anyone. Al Thornton had two huge games against Duke including 37 and 15 at Cameron. Singletary and Heath -- I'm not as convinced due to a weaker crop of guards in the NCAA among the power conferences -- are strong players nonetheless. Tywon Lawson from UNC may outplay both of these guys.

Monday, October 23, 2006

Why the 'Skins Suck: A theory by a former die-hard and now critical fan

The return of Joe Gibbs was supposed to be the dawning of a new day for the Washington Redskins under the reign of Daniel Snyder (hereinafter "The Daniel"). One of the greatest minds in the history of professional football was returning to Washington's sidelines and, with good reason, the Redskins' fans could see hope for the first time in a long time. After all, The Daniel himself was a lifelong fan of the team, and surely, his flamboyant management of the team would bow to the genius of Gibbs. And also, Gibbs had won three Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks, two of whom had otherwise horribly mediocre careers.

The light shone on Redskins Park in Ashburn, Virginia, and it seemed good. Unfortunately, within moments it became clear that The Daniel had made one fatal error in his miraculous courting of Gibbs. That error would lead to countless mistakes, all of which reaked of ultimate doom. What error? The Daniel revered Gibbs as Homer Simpson reveres donuts. Gibbs was not only given the job of head coach, but also of team president. This meant that Gibbs had free reign over all personnel decisions as well as calling the shots on the field.

In his first tenure as Redskins head coach, Gibbs was initially balanced by a brilliant general manager (Bobby Beathard). While things always looked peachy keen on the outside, it is now a fairly well-known fact that the two clashed time and time again. Gibbs would demand certain players, either via the draft, trades, or Plan-B free agency. Beathard would stand firm and battle Gibbs on each of the players, questioning whether they would truly add positive value and depth to the team. Gibbs did win on occassion, but so did Bethard, and ultimately, this meant that Gibbs had to carefully pick and choose his battles, thus requiring him to take a much harder look at each player he desired to have on his roster.

Beathard did ultimately step aside, and was replaced by Charlie Casserly, and Gibbs did win one Super Bowl in the Casserly-era. But it is clear that the effect of Beathard stayed with him in the last few years of his first tenure.

Fast forward to this second Gibbs-era. The Coach literally has nobody standing over him -- there is not one person challenging him on personnel decisions. He has full control, and thus, has no Beathard-like leash to keep him chained to the ground. But he's Joe 'friggin' Gibbs, he's a football genius, there can't be a problem! Can there? Indeed there can, and we need to look no further than Gibbs' first major decision as team president: the pursuit and acquisition of Mark Brunell.

Brunell was a 33 year-old veteran coming off an injury-plagued season. It was clear that his franchise, the Jacksonville Jaguars, had made the decision to replace him with young quarterback Byron Leftwich. However, Gibbs chose to look past the age and the injuries and the fact that Brunell's career was on a downturn. Instead, he saw a replica of arguably his favorite quarterback from his first go-around as coach: Joe Theismann. Brunell was, in his heyday, a mobile quarterback - able to scramble downfield for an easy gain of 10 yards if his receivers were covered. He was an intelligent quarterback who knew how to lead a team and had gotten some positive experience while serving as a backup to Brett Favre during Favre's good years. Gibbs loved him and overpaid for him.

Arguably, the Redskins could have used a new quarterback as incumbent starter Patrick Ramsey had suffered through weekly beatings behind a porous offensive line during his career thus far and had thus put up mediocre statistics. However, did anybody challenge Gibbs on this acquisition? Did anyone point out that two of the three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks under Gibbs were at least as immobile as Ramsey? Mark Rypien was a one-year wonder who flourished because his offensive line only gave up nine sacks all season. Rypien had time to take the snap, drop back 11 steps, down a Molson (after all, he is Canadian), deliver a loud belch, and then chuck the ball 30 yards downfield to Ricky Sanders, Gary Clark, or Hall of Fame receiver Art Monk (What? He's not in the Hall? Oh yeah, I forgot, Peter King and Dr. Z are douchebags). One would think that if Rypien could become a Pro Bowl QB, that perhaps Ramsey would at least have a good shot at being a playoff quarterback if he had a decent offensive line and coaching scheme.

But, again, nobody challenged Gibbs' thinking. Nobody stood up to him and asked "Do we really want this guy? Isn't he battered and past his prime?"

Fast forward to the 2005 NFL season. The Redskins seemingly had returned, winning 6 games in a row, including a playoff win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The offense was clicking (meaning that Portis was a beast, Moss and Cooley bailed Brunell out of passes that went beyond 10 yards, and the "dink and dunk" game caught defenses off-guard), and the team was able to bounce back from a 5-6 start in which at least three of the losses came because of boneheaded errors by Brunell. But, since the goal of making the playoffs was achieved, Brunell's mediocre play and Gibbs' free-reign were temporarily forgotten and forgiven.

One would think that if the offense was finally starting to work, that if maybe all that was needed was a formidable #2 wide receiver to take some pressure off of Santana Moss and some depth on the offensive line, that only minor changes would be made by the Gibbs regime. Unfortunately, Gibbs again went unchallenged. The acquisitions of Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle-El were not horrible, though it could be argued that better options than Lloyd were available. However, the trade of a 3rd round draft choice for running back T.J. "The Refrigerator" Duckett raised my eyebrows so high that my eyelids extend to the top of my head. What's worse is that Gibbs, seeing that his offense was finally working again in the NFL and seeing that his players were finally executing it well, decided to drop it entirely and bring in the complicated, though somewhat proven, system of Al Saunders.

So let's see. System starting to work, therefore you scratch it and bring in the 300,000 page playbook of a guy that's never even made it to the Super Bowl?

Obviously, as the first seven weeks of this season have showed, the offseason thinking of Joe Gibbs has gone awry. It just makes me wonder, what if somebody, ANYBODY, had the balls to step up to him and say "Hey Joe ... do we really want to do this?" I never thought I'd say this, but I wish the old, meddling, Daniel would come back...
Sum Mehrnama

Sunday, October 22, 2006

The Obligatory College Basketball Post

Ladies and gentlemen, college basketball is upon us. It is my favorite sport and the one in which I follow closest. With that said, team practices began on Sunday.

The preseason documentation of teams have been great at the main websites as well as the recruiting-specific sites. Here are six points for Sunday.

1. Andy Katz really likes Wichita State.
2. Texas freshman forward Kevin Durant is being hyped for a year of greatness before he bolts to the NBA in June.
3. Top national recruit Greg Oden may not suit up for the Buckeyes until 2007 due to a wrist injury.
4. Pitt's non-conference schedule has improved under the Jamie Dixon regime.
5. With one of the strongest recruiting classes in recent memory buoying an already-strong group of returnees (headlined by Tyler Hansbrough and Reyshawn Terry), anything short of a Final Four run will result in disappointment for North Carolina.
6. New Indiana coach Kelvin Sampson is always on notice for his shady recruitment policy. Most recently, he snapped up the top high school senior (Alex Gordon) in the state of Indiana from under the noses of Illinois. The only problem is that he already committed to Illinois.

Friday, October 20, 2006

Clement's Football Predictions

Well, it wasn't as disastrous a week as it could have been, but nobody said it was pretty. Yet, we're three weeks into things and we now have a taste for the NFL and NCAA limelight.

So let's roll.

Week One: 0-5 [Disgusting to say the very least.]
Week Two: 3-2 [Too much road-love...but we finally righted the ship with some sharp moves. Didn't we? Hawks just couldn't cover. Michigan's push is a W for the house.]

As for this week, it looks like three NFL games and two collegiate selections are required from Pay.

Pittsburgh (-2.5)@ Atlanta
I hate to do it again, honestly it's been a little sickening, but Pay just loves to toss out friendly road picks. If the Steelers beat Atlanta, it's assuredly by a field goal at some point in the 4th quarter. Under that logic, you go with your pick in this game. I'll take Pitsburgh who really impressed me last week by completely dominating the Chiefs. It's not as safe as it seems, but take the Steelers on the road to get back to .500.

Washington @ Indianapolis (-9.5)
Remember what I said about gigantic spreads? Forget it. Well, not until I mention Tennessee trumped a near two-touchdown spread in Vegas and Oakland just got by losing by 8 less than the wild 18-point spread I saw in Atlantic City over the weekend. I wanted to put a few fins down on each game, but was too cowardly to do so with a small money pile (at the time, at least). As for the game, Washington seems like a lost cause while the Colts are playing down to opponents' levels (see Jets & Titans game). I suppose I see the wrecking ball smacking the Skins down as Manning will isolate a not-so-healthy Springs and an overall weak secondary. The Colts cover, barely, and solidify their way to 6-0.

San Diego (-5) @ Kansas City
Sometimes, games really seem too easy. San Diego just drubbed the Niners (Who hasn't lately?) and Kansas City is still reeling from the beatdown by the Stiller. Obvious notes aside, Kansas City is a much better team at home, but San Diego is a much better team overall. With more attention on Gates and LT still endzone-hungry, I'll wrap up this week's NFL picks by taking the Bolts to cruise through this game and easily cover that road spread.

Alright, we took a home team to win and cover. Whew, glad that's out of the way. Of course, the other two road covers are just a fun trend. Right?

Texas (-6.5) @ Nebraska
My collegiate knowledge isn't as amazing as it once was. Nevertheless, Colt McCoy is comfortable and doesn't have to be perfect and that's getting him closer to that peak. While Nebraska clearly has elevated their talent level, they won't be able to get this game under ten points after the 2nd quarter. Hook 'em Horns and cover the spread twice over (that's 13 points folks).

Georgia Tech @ Clemson (-7.5)
I'm not entirely how sure I am about Clemson. Nor Georgia Tech for that matter. What I really don't buy is the ACC at football these days. I suppose Georgia Tech is a decent pick here at 7.5 because they travel relatively well and Clemson could easily have to win this close by 3-7 points. I love when a touchdown doesn't cover, so take the Ramblin' Wreck here to score a road cover, but not on the W itself necessarily.

Thanks to Pay for some fun games and thanks to the loyal listeners, all half-dozen of you, for enjoying this week's installment. If possible, I'd like to tackle 4 & 2 most weeks, and I'll make that request public to Pay on this board as my people deserve to hear it. And no more Jets games. We just can't handle the pressure.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

The Dissolution of English Football

Last week, the English national soccer team fell 2-0 to Croatia in Zagreb. While Croatia boasts a decent squad of internationals playing in top leagues, the talent of the English far supercedes. So why did England fall? And, why does England continue to disappoint on the English stage? Depending on whom you ask, there are many reasons for this, and very few of them are wrong. Below are the main reasons why this is so.

Some England supporters have lamented the lack of a world-class left-sided midfield player and have overrated the likes of Middlesbrough midfielder Stewart Downing as a result. This explains why a player the calibre of a Bobby Convey - who was a flop for much of his time at DC United of Major League Soccer - forced his way into a Reading side that gained promotion. Left-sided midfielders are priceless in England.

Some rightly feel that the tactics of Sven Goran Eriksson were too conservative and restricted explosive attacking midfield players from their normal club roles such as Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard. Such tactics result in playing down to the level of your opponents; thus, ushering the way for a defeat to minnows Northern Ireland. Obviously, I'm ignoring the many 1-0 and 2-1 results which could've easily been victories of two goals or more.

Along with that, manager selection comes to mind. Steve McClaren may just be one of the most overrated managers of all-time before it is all said and done. He rarely has a bad thing to say about any player or manager, and possibly, this is a meal ticket to working for Sky Sports as a pundit, but it does not win you matches. Examine his teams’ finishing positions at Middlesbrough, and moreso, the number of purchases he made that went awry. For the match against Croatia which has come under great scrutiny from supporters and pundits alike, McClaren tinkered with the formation and utilized a 3-5-2. For the record, I have no problem running the 3-5-2 as opposed to the 4-4-2 given England's talent; however, McClaren should've tinkered with formations during friendlies and not European qualifiers. There is a major difference and this may result in England fighting for a play-off spot.

Also, a growing contingent feel that the English game has been taken over by foreign players. Sheffield United boss Neil Warnock told Sky Sports News, “I just look at it in general, we have got good players but most of them play with the majority foreign players in their own club side.” Although Warnock is known for running his mouth, he couldn't be more correct. It is not a distant memory to recall the ignominious night in which Arsenal fielded an all non-English team. The thing is, it's not just Arsenal. There's El Liverpool and Chelsea to boot.

This is no indictment on foreign players. They've helped make the English Premier League the most entertaining league in the world. However, it's been at the expense of the development of young English players who have a harder time than usual of breaking into their stacked squads, which, in turn, must avoid relegation will all of their might.

Monday, October 16, 2006

College Football's Top 8 Teams -- Version 2.0

Two weeks of great football have passed and teams continue to develop their identities as we move to the home stretch of the college football regular season. In that period of time, the SEC has proven to be the most balanced conference while the USC Trojans have had two late scares at home to unranked Washington and Arizona St.

Meanwhile, the BCS rankings came out yesterday and demonstrated the computer rankings' infatuation with USC -- likely buoyed by an opening game win at Arkansas. Like 2 weeks ago, Matt Carroll (mcarroll@dewberry.com) provides insight and reasoning behind his top 8.

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1) Ohio State: Still above the rest. No problems handling their games the last two weeks. The defense continues to get better as they get more game experience. There are no questions on the offensive side of the ball. They have made it through the first half of their schedule and should now coast to the Michigan game on Nov. 18th

2) Michigan: Got a big win in Happy Valley to keep their national championship hopes alive, and did so without their star WR Mario Manningham. The offense showed depth with WRs Adrian Arrington and Steve Breaston getting 83 and 79 yards receiving, respectively, and RB Mike Hart's 6th 100-yard rushing game this season against a stout PSU defense. But it is the Michigan D that proved they can control a game, with their front 7 making a strong case as the best in the nation with 7 sacks, also knocking out PSU's first- and second-string QBs.

3) Louisville: I think this is the team that ends up undefeated and on the outside of the BCS bubble. Their last two wins have been less than convincing, but the 2nd half of their game against Middle Tenn. St. shows how good they can be. They have three tough games in a row coming up, so we will find out for ourselves how great this team really is. WR Mario Urrutia (fun last name to say) is emerging as a great scoring weapon and should become even more of a threat as QB Brian Brohm works his way back.

4) Florida: This is a great team on offense and defense. A two-QB system that is actually working (for now), and a good RB in Wynn. LSU laid an egg against this team in The Swamp, but Florida took advantage of those mistakes to score a good win. They played very well against Auburn and dominated for the most part, but were unable to recover from the momentum swing off of the blocked punt. As I said previously, this is the toughest schedule in the country, so if they can win out -- as they should -- this one-loss team will be the best in the land.

5) Auburn: How could a team that just beat Florida be ranked below them? Because they are not as good as Florida is. They had a great win on Saturday, but last Saturday they were absolutely dominated by Arkansas. Stat of the week: 3 -- the number of pass attempts for Arkansas in the 2nd half. And only 10 pass attempts total. That is the definition of smashmouth football. This was after they squeaked by an inferior South Carolina team that went down to the last play of the game. My last post said Auburn could be in trouble if they were losing late because they don't have the passing attack and that showed against Arkansas.

6) Cal: This team has looked phenomenal after Week 1. Just like Arkansas, a completely different team from the first game of the season. They have dominated every opponent since. Impressive wins against Oregon and Arizona State. They had no problem beating ASU and WSU, which USC did. Nate Longshore is playing fabulous, and DeSean Jackson is a one of the best WRs in the nation that deserves more attention than he is getting.

7) USC: This team has not played like a top 5 team, in my opinion. Three straight games that have all gone down to the wire against three unranked teams, with two of them at home. The team has not lost, but has looked quite vulnerable. Their defense is not causing turnovers which has many a Trojan fan worried. They have two games to get their act together before they play Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame. Lucky for them -- they are all at home.

8) WVU: The offense is phemonenal and the spread attack is incredibly hard to defend. Pat White had a field day against Syracuse. But the defense continues to disappoint. There were several plays that they gave up to Syracuse which made them look pathetic, most notably a couple of deep balls against the secondary that came off of desperation throws from Perry Patterson. It will be interesting to see what a Louisville offense can do to them.

On the Radar: Texas, Tennesee, Notre Dame
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Key Games in the Next 2 Weeks
Oct. 21:
#5 Texas @ #17 Nebraska
#13 Georgia Tech @ #12 Clemson
#6 Louisville @ Syracuse

Oct. 28:
Georgia v. #9 Florida
#7 Tennessee @ South Carolina

Friday, October 13, 2006

Clement's NFL Predictions

Didn’t believe I could muck up picks that badly did ya? 5 wrong. That’s why I always say…DON’T BET ON THE NFL.

But if you’re a compulsive…I got your fix. And your end.

Let’s roll with ‘em. Hopefully Pay lightened up on my sorry ass.

Last Week: 0-5 [DAMN! We’re already looking at a high draft pick, aren’t we? Anybody get Brady Quinn on the phone? Anybody?]

Carolina @ Baltimore (-3)

I got a little road-crazy last week. Nevertheless, McNair showed some rust in the rain on MNF against a now-daunted Broncos D. [Who doesn’t love Wilson, Gold, and DJ? Seriously.] Back to this game, I like Carolina who has snuck in comfortable at 3-2. While McAllister can go with Smith, there’s enough playmaking on the Panthers squad to cover this spread. Even with DeAngelo Williams banged up, I’m again taking a road warrior with the Cats.

Seattle (-3.5) @ St. Louis

I can’t do it again? Can I? Perhaps. While Shaun isn’t around, the Rams aren’t nearly as good as their 4-1 record. Seriously. Jackson has big-time goalline issues (trust me, I know from fantasy letdowns most weeks) and Bulger has happy hands with key fumbles. Seattle is a well-coached team and will regain the division lead and cover the spread. Take the Hawks.

Buffalo @ Detroit (-1.5)

Wow, Pay just loves giving me road-covers. He’s just brutal. I can’t say I love Buffalo one bit, but I HATE what Marinelli has going on in Detroit (whether it’s his fault or not). Seriously, when is Matt Millen going to jump head-first into Lake Michigan and end this futility once and for all? [Just kidding Matty, just quit and go back to being a completely overrated NFL announcer] Losman? Yeah, I’ll take him and my seventh straight road-dog.

NY Giants @ Atlanta (-3)

Not 8? Screw it. New York is my Super Bowl pick and has the speed to force Vick to be contained inside the pocket. Until Jenkins and White prove ANYTHING to me, I see a lot of problems post-bye for Vick and company. DeAngelo Hall is a stud, #2 behind Champ in my CB book this year, but I love the road warrior Giants. Tiki’s due for a TD or two…or so I hope. Hello 0-9, right?

By the way, some odds makers have Oakland as near 18-point dogs to Denver. You put money on that action. Believe me. You won’t have them lose by 36 two times before they cover that spread another eight times -- maybe even double under it. Look at what Tennessee did to Indy (13-point spread in Vegas on some sport’s books) with the 1-point loss and a clear under on the score. Do it!

Alright, so now we get one little college game…just to get our feet wet in that foray. What the hell, I love the challenge!

Michigan (-7) @ Penn State

Now, Manningham is out for this game … but I don’t care. Michigan is on a freight-train path to Penn State (if those exist). They’ll cover, even at -14. Take the Wolverines and breathe easily.

It’s all I got brothers and sisters. Just keep those heads up and those parlays in the Pac-10. Safest conference on Earth with ridiculous spreads. Otherwise, ignore me at all costs. Otherwise, Pay is gonna make me pick straight-up like a sissy-punk.

--Clement

Monday, October 09, 2006

Looking Back: FSU at Miami

For the first time in 24 years, Florida St. and Miami are unranked in the polls. The following entry by Matt Carroll (mcarroll@dewberry.com) revisits the game between the two teams and argues that the game was a matchup of two anemic offenses rather than two amazing defenses.
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The first retrospective thought of the young college football season: Florida State at Miami. Many pre-season prognosticators had at least one of these teams playing for the national championship. The game was tight, low scoring, and played down to the wire. The game presented a fulcrum for all analysts. Did we just see two great defenses? Or two feeble offenses?

Most analysts touted the talent of these two teams, and therefore, concluded that it must be the great defensive talent. A mere month later, the real story is beginning to unfold.

FSU loses to a team (NC State) that just got their butt whipped by Southern Miss two weeks ago. And their superb defense? They gave up more points to NC State than the following teams did: Akron, Southern Miss, and Boston College.

Miami was flattened by Louisville. Yes, Louisville is a great team, but the score was 10-7 when Brohm went down. That's right. The whooping came from the backup, Hunter Cantwell. 21-0 to be exact. Miami's two wins you ask? A squeaker against powerhouse Houston 14-13, and a silver platter cupcake against I-AA Florida A&M.

It makes you wonder. What if you took away those meaningless numbers next to the school names on the TV scoreboard back on September 4th? And tried to extricate yourself from the aura of the two programs involved? Would this be a game that sparks your interest?

Friday, October 06, 2006

Clement's Weekly NFL Predictions

Alright, so Pay asked for a few predictions...and I'll abide. I won't talk too much, as you're not here for me. [And if you are, seek help immediately.] Some might say that I have a background (shhh to the FEDS) in sports betting.

Although I'm breaking my second rule -- betting on the NFL. Why that rule? It's friggin' impossible. Parlay college games or go baseball. It's so much easier! In case you were interested, rule #1 is NEVER bet on a team you love or intensely hate. Never. You like to think you can be unbiased...but you can't. YOU CAN'T!

NFL Lineup:

Washington @ NY Giants (-4)
We're looking at spreads and the Giants seem to have a rather friendly 4 points, even being at home. Both sides seem healthy, although you gotta wonder exactly where Plexico is at these days. With the G-Men at 1-2, they can't afford 1-3 with this schedule. Perhaps a week off can lessen the blow of 44 illegal procedure penalties a game, whether home or away. [Yes, that rhymed.] As for the Skins, they looked strong (at times) with an impressive home win against the Jags. The secondary has issues though. Yes, even with Sean "Greatest Player Alive to far too many Skins fans" Taylor. He needs to go for balls before big hits sometimes. I said it. Carlos Rogers is also overrated, if he is even rated. While the -4 is enticing, this series seems to like 7-point games, or so I think. In the end, I'll take the Skins with the points. The G-Men could win, especially with Feely kicking well, and yet it could only be 3. Ride the hot team over the bye-week team and take the Skins to cover the spread.

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-2.5)
The TO bowl. Philly's secondary is BANGED UP to say the least. Yet, it's the play of Julius Jones and Marion Barber III that has me wondering how good these Cowboys are. Be sure to check how Michael Lewis is feeling and of course Brian Westbrook. While Philly is at home, I'm gonna take the Pokes as Glenn, TO, and Witten pose a lot of matchup problems. I also think Terrance Newman has completely left his bust status, solely now with Quentin Jammer, with some rock solid performances lately. Take Dallas, hope TO puts on a show, and look for Eagles fans dressed as and throwing pills and bottles.

Pittsburgh @ San Diego (-3.5)
NEVER sleep on Pittsburgh. Just when you think they're dead ... they show up. The Chargers are solid, but at home, they aren't unbeatable. Lost their last playoff game there (Jets plug!) and lost to the Steelers there last year too. While they have serious injury issues, I worry about the Chargers struggling to incorporate a man as talented as Gates. While the 3.5 is friendly, it isn't 3 or 2.5 which is better (especially if you can push). I'll take the Steelers here as they are too well coached to be 1-3.

Baltimore @ Denver (-4.5)
I love the oddsmakers putting Denver up here, especially after Baltimore rallied back and the Broncos took a bye week to enjoy beating the Pats on the road. Mile High is a tough place to play, especially for an old guy like McNair. Yet the key is the backs. Jamal Lewis is underachieving, 4-0 team or not. On the other hand, I credit Tatum Bell's early season efforts. While this defense, with Reed, Lewis, Scott, and Thomas can give Plummer fits, I love Javon Walker's addition on this squad. Yet, I still love field goal margins. I'll take the road-Ravens to keep it close...and maybe win. Stover or Elam could easily be the major difference here.

NY Jets @ Jacksonville (-7)
The Jets put on quite a show in past weeks, nearly collapsing against the Titans, rallying against the Pats only to fall short, giving up ungodly numbers while beating the Bills on the road, giving the Colts a serious run for their house money, ... and yet are 7-point dogs. While the Jags are at home and clearly better, I don't like the 7 point spread. Their running game will love seeing the Jets, but the safeties can help the isolated corners. I also think Chad Pennington can Mark Brunell (or Scott Brunell, if you wish) the Jags for some key plays. While the Jags could make this a disgusting 20-7 game, I think Vilma has enough talent to keep this under 7, win or lose. Take the Jets, as you don't get too many 7 point spreads in the NFL these days.

Okay, so there you have it. Skins (dogs), Dallas (dogs), Pittsburgh (dogs), Baltimore (dogs), and Jets (dogs).

Wait...what? Call it a hunch. But if you're playing with real money, only pick 3 games. Never parlay 5 in the NFL...it won't happen.

And ignore whatever I say. Except that last statement.

--Clement

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Day 2 of the NFL Draft – Building Blocks for a Winning Franchise

Some call the NFL Draft the great equalizer --underperforming teams like Cincinnati used to have early draft positions until they placed the weight of their franchise on Carson Palmer. Others, such as Tennessee, who draft Adam “Pacman” Jones as the 6th overall pick, may not see the draft in such a light. Teams that draft masterfully continue to improve their scouting and player development while teams with a quick-fix mentality overpay for free agents or draft players with lots of potential and no discipline (they call it “upside” in the NBA). This trend has a polarizing effect in terms of long-term success.

In a previous post, I mentioned that Day 2 of the NFL Draft is the second-most important day on the NFL calendar [to the Super Bowl]. We all know about Spurgeon Wynn was taken ahead of Tom Brady in the 2000 Draft. Thirty-one NFL teams saw a guy who couldn’t move. The Patriots saw a guy who could manage games and play with his head. They stumbled upon their savior on Day 2 in the 6th round.

To determine the impact of Day 2 draft picks [excluding undrafted free agents], I looked at three of the most successful franchises throughout the past five seasons (2001-2005) – New England, Indianapolis, and Philadelphia. While each of these have been nearly flawless on Day 1 in filling holes and anticipating future free agents fleeing for greener pastures, the listing below shows key ingredients on the offensive and defensive lines being filled on Day 2. This is not to say that gems at the skill positions can’t be found on Day 2 and among free agents -- just think of TJ Houshmandzadeh (7th rounder), Willie Parker (undrafted), and Marques Colston (7th rounder) – but we’re learning in Arizona that being loaded at the offensive skill positions means diddly squat when you have no protection.

New England
2002: Jarvis Green (4th, 126), David Givens (7th, 253) – now plays for Tennessee
2003: Dan Klecko (4th, 117), Asante Samuel (4th, 120), Dan Koppen (5th, 164), Tully Banta-Cain (7th, 239)

Indianapolis
2001: Ryan Diem (4th, 118)
2002: David Thornton (4th, 106)
2003: Robert Mathis (5th, 138), Cato June (6th, 198)
2004: Jason David (4th, 125), Jake Scott (5th, 141), Von Hutchins (6th, 173)

Philadelphia
2001: Correll Buckhalter (4th, 121), AJ Feeley (5th, 155)
2002: Raheem Brock (7th, 238) – now plays for Indianapolis
2004: Thomas Tapeh (5th, 162)
2005: Todd Herremans (4th, 126), Trent Cole (5th, 146)

Source: NFL.com

The good teams get it. Define your system. Do your research. Determine which players fit your system and gauge where other teams may take certain players. Load up on the lines because you’re bound to lose someone throughout the season to injury and in the offseason to free agency.

Great players are found on Day 1 of the NFL Draft, but winning franchises are built and sustained on Day 2.

Monday, October 02, 2006

College Football’s Top 8 Teams

In a perfect world, college football would utilize the mathematical advantages provided by the Bowl Championship Series’ (BCS) multiple polls to find out the nation’s 8 best teams and have them participate in a playoff. These games would be hosted at the 5 BCS bowl sites plus two other designated sites.

Now, I don’t consider myself an expert in college football, but I do consider Matt Carroll to be one [especially on the recruiting trail]. Both of us feel strongly that preseason polls are misguide the public and help predetermine BCS bids at the end of the season. So, every two weeks, Matt will be ranking the top 8 teams and sharing his thoughts on why these teams are the best of the best.

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1) Ohio State: A no-brainer here. Big and impressive wins, on the road, against Texas and Iowa. The best offense in the nation with Heisman fave Troy Smith running the show, a solid WR in Gonzalez, a playmaker in Ginn, and two great RB's in Pittman and the #1 national recruit Chris Wells. The defense has held their end of the bargain thus far. All new starters, but not new players. Most of these guys have been waiting in the wings for a year or two now.

2) Michigan: Huge road shellacking against the highly touted Fighting Irish. One of, if not the best front 7 in all of college football. Complemented by an offense led by TB Mike Hart, who makes it easy for third year starter Henne to go deep to breakout WR Manningham. Breaston is a playmaker that can change a game with one return or screen.

3) Auburn: A great win against LSU. The defense has all of the talent, and are unbeatable when on top of their game. Kenny Irons is phenomenal. Games are won on the front lines, and Auburn has a fantastic OL and DL. Their schedule is weak in SEC standards, and their tough games are at home. I think their biggest test will be the last at Alabama. Courtney Taylor is a great talent, but the passing game has not proven itself. If Auburn finds itself down late, they could be in trouble.

4) Florida: Great win at Tennessee. A lot of talk about Tebow, who is very talented, but only continues the lack of appreciation that people have for Leak. The defense is great. Their only problem is their schedule. If they beat LSU, at Auburn, and GA, back-to-back-to-back, they automatically go up to #2. Toughest schedule in the country.

5) USC: Pretty good win against Nebraska. Lots of talent on this team as always. Jarrett out will not make them miss a beat, especially at this point in their schedule. Booty is a first-year starter, but he's been in the program for a while now. He's no rookie, it has shown, and he will continue to show that throughout the year. They will easily be undefeated going into their game on Veteran's Day.

6) Louisville: Hard to say who is better between WVU and Louisville. Lucky for the fans, we can see them decide that on the field. What they have down without Bush, and now without Brohm, has been superb. Petrino is my Coach of the Year right now. A great win against Miami, even though Miami is looking worse by the day. Brohm should be back for the WVU game and both should be undefeated.

7) LSU: A great team. Phenomenal D. JaMarcus Russell is a very good QB that can carry the team on his shoulders. They have a great matchup in The Swamp this weekend. Russell outperformed Leak last year and I think he can do it again. If they beat Florida, which I believe they will, they should go into the top 5. Their one loss was a good one.

8) WVU: This team has been untested which makes it hard to gauge how good they really are. A very impressive offense. Steve Slaton is one of the top 3 RB's in the entire nation. Rich Rodriguez is a genius with the spread offense that he employs and he has a great young general in Pat White to execute it. The defense leaves something to be desired. Gave up a lot of bad plays against Maryland. Did not play well against East Carolina last week, Slaton included.

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Key Games in the Next 2 Weeks
Oct. 7:
LSU @ Florida
Texas v. Oklahoma
Tennessee @ Georgia
Oregon @ California

Oct. 14:
Florida @ Auburn
California @ Washington St.
Michigan @ Penn St.