5 Questions to the Editor

Tweet tweet. Pay's most recent 2-round mock is HERE. I plan on having my final mock tonight or early tomorrow. Tweet tweet.

I threw out a dozen-or-so draft-related questions to the editor (aka Pay) and let him decide which ones he'd address. Also a few random thoughts of my own (shocker!) might sneak their way in.

Question #1: Which Louisville prospect is most likely lottery bound: Terrence Williams or Earl Clark?
Pay: Two months ago, I would have said Earl Clark. After workouts, Williams' stock has risen because teams love his versatility. He may also be the best defender in this draft class, and he won't last past the 12th pick.
Clement: It's just as likely both slip into the late lottery, potentially even back-to-back, as they both slip into the late teens. Personally, I question what position and what type of shooting range either possesses on the NBA level. Nevertheless, I agree with Pay about Williams (slightly) over Clark. He seems more equipped to be a leader, a scorer, and a defender.

Question #2: Which second round prospect most intrigues you?
Pay: Danny Green. On the right team and in the right situation with the right coaching, he will be an All-Star. If you watched him at Carolina like I did, he's not short of desire and concentrated power of will. Unlike most other second-round talents, Green is a 94-foot player, and he has steadily improved his jump shot, defense, and demeanor in the last four years.
Clement: A lot of teams are desperate for a point guard, or depth at the position, and the first round offers tons of depth at the position. However, if you're willing to sweat it out in the second round, FSU's Toney Douglas (admittedly a combo guard) might be the Mario Chalmers of this draft. He has a knack for scoring but also distributes well and can continue to improve on defense.

Question #3: Who is the "safest" selection outside the top 5?
Pay: Tyler Hansbrough. According to NBA GMs and anyone with a pulse, he's a known quantity who will work hard and never quit.
Clement: Ty Lawson. While I'm not sure if he can be an elite point guard in the NBA, his speed, quickness, clutch shooting, and overall work effort (especially fighting through injuries) will keep him in this league for 10+ years.

Question #4: Which team has been the most difficult to analyze and predict in the top 10?
Pay: Memphis. What will they do at #2? They have a major need at the center position, but they do not seem enamored with Hasheem Thabeet who skipped out on a workout. Increasingly, I believe that they will select the best player available (Ricky Rubio) and trade him to the highest bidder (Minnesota).
Clement: Golden State. At #7, they are Donnie Walsh's biggest nemesis right now (if the affection for Curry is legit, which it clearly appears to be). The Warriors and their front office perplex me more and more, especially since Don Nelson is still calling most of the shots, with a roster that needs to downsize rather than adding another lottery selection. Filled with tweeners galore, I don't believe Stephen Curry would fall past them at 7. However, assuming he's already gone (likely to Minnesota), I have no idea what this team is thinking. NONE.

Question #5: Is Milwaukee better off drafting a rookie point guard (i.e. Johnny Flynn or Ty Lawson) or resigning Ramon Sessions?
Pay: From a dollars and sense perspective, you draft a point guard in the 1st round. But, Scott Skiles seems to really like Sessions, so I expect the Bucks to make every effort to re-sign him. Do not be shocked if the Bucks draft a point guard with the 10th pick and sign Sessions, only to trade Sessions, Ridnour, or the point guard taken with the 10th pick.
Clement: I have always felt Sessions could be a very very good point guard in this league. No, he isn't going to be CP3, Deron Williams, or Derrick Rose; however, I grade him higher than any point guard in this draft (even on their potential). With that being said, Milwaukee has made a mess of their cap and the trade market for the underrated Sessions may not be too strong. With a nucleus of Bogut, Redd, and Villenueva, I'd re-sign Sessions and trade down in this draft (targeting perhaps the aformetioned Terrence Williams or even Gerald Henderson).

Random Thought
After dealing players and picks with the Wizards (notably Randy Foye and Mike Miller), the Minnesota Timberwolves have the 5th and 6th overall picks in tomorrow night's draft. Question now becomess, is Minnesota looking for the best two players available? The best guard and best forward? What if Thabeet slips to them? Do they envision a Thabeet/Jefferson/Love front line? Are they going with the best two guards, regardless of position? Do they really expect to draft four guys in the 1st round? Might they be the team who deals up to #2 with Memphis for Ricky Rubio? If I were the GM in Memphis, I'd get whatever I could from Minnesota (as long as I liked someone enough at #5), take Rubio, and then deal the Spanish phenom to the land of a thousand lakes.

As for the rest of the day, check out the Twitter feed (don't you always?), as I'm off to Transformers 2 right now. And no critics, I'm not expecting the next Godfather, Citizen Kane, or even Terminator 2. Instead, I'm anticipating quite a bit of this...

In a word...HELLO!!!!
Credit: Megan-Fox.net

I know, I'm a sexist pig. I'll listen to the lecture from Jessie Spano later.
Although, she has a checkered past herself, you know.

What On Earth Is A Trade Exception?

Among all of the questions that I field with request to the NBA and the salary cap, the one I struggle with most is about trade exceptions. Why is this significant?

Minnesota will sends its $2.8M trade exception from a 2007 deal of Mark Blount to the Miami Heat to Philadelphia for forwards Rodney Carney, Calvin Booth and a future 1st-round pick. According to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports, this deal allows for the Sixers to offer a starting salary upwards of approximately$14M per season.

Trade Exceptions Explained by Larry Coon

The Traded Player exception is the primary means used by teams over the cap for completing trades. It allows teams to make trades that leave them over the cap, but it places several restrictions on those trades. Trades using the Traded Player exception are classified into two categories: simultaneous and non-simultaneous. As its name suggests, a simultaneous trade takes place all at once. Teams can acquire up to 125% plus $100,000 of the salaries they are trading in a simultaneous trade. For example, a team trading a $5 million player in a simultaneous trade can receive one or more players whose salary is no more than 125% of $5 million, plus $100,000, or $6.35 million in return.

Non-simultaneous trade may take up to a year to complete.

While the term "Traded Player exception" refers to the entire exception which allows teams to make trades above the salary cap (including simultaneous trades, non-simultaneous trades, and base year compensation), it is also commonly used to refer to the one-year monetary credit teams receive while a non-simultaneous trade is pending completion. Be aware of this potential ambiguity, which was made worse by the current CBA (earlier CBAs used the term "Assigned Player exception" to refer to the entire exception).

Example: If the salary cap is $50 million, a team has a team salary of $55 million, and they want to trade a $5 million player for a $4 million player, they still have to use an exception. Even though their team salary would be decreasing by $1 million, the fact that they would still be over the salary cap ($54 million) means that an exception is required.

NBA Offseason Preview - Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota Timberwolves
Team Record: 22-60
2008-2009 Payroll (Source: HoopsHype.com): $55.1M

Draft Picks: #3, #31, #34

With the trade of Kevin Garnett last summer, the Timberwolves’ brass essentially waved the white flag for the 2007-2008 season. And wave it proudly they did. After reaching buyouts with both Troy Hudson and Juwan Howard (Fun Fact: The Wolves are still on the hook for $13.7M this year and $6.3M next year), Minnesota inked PF/C Al Jefferson to a 5-year/$65M contract. Meanwhile, Marko Jaric and Rashad McCants showed glimpses of their potential … when they were healthy.

At the point guard, Randy Foye has fallen well short of expectation to the point that Sebastian Telfair played significant minutes at times last year.

At forward, Corey Brewer struggled as a rookie, but is expected to contribute much more in Year 2. He’ll share time with Antoine Walker who is subject to a team option next year. That leaves rookie Chris Richard and whomever is re-signed among Ryan Gomes, Craig Smith and Wayne Simien.

Burning Questions: With the 3rd pick firmly in their grasp, the Wolves need to answer the following question: Do we go with the big (Brook Lopez) in order to move Al Jefferson to his natural 4 position or are we better served with a playmaker (e.g. OJ Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, Danilo Gallinari)? Since they are unlikely sign both and stay below the luxury tax, will the Wolves extend either Gomes or Smith?

Perceived Needs: C, Playmaking G or SF, Physical Presence

If I Were GM … I would take the best player available (i.e. not Brook Lopez) with the 3rd pick overall. Since Jerryd Bayless reminds me of Randy Foye minus the defensive tenacity, it’s a toss-up between the controversial OJ Mayo and the Italian Danilo Gallinari and I’d lean towards Mayo. For the #31 and #34 picks, there are a number of players who can play center to select from, such as Nathan Jawai, Nikola Pekovic and Joey Dorsey. A player with a high basketball IQ like combo guard Kyle Weaver should also be given consideration.

In terms of re-signing free agents, Ryan Gomes (12.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg) has to be the priority. Can he be signed for the mid-level exception?