Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 6

5 weeks down and the byes are starting to really affect both fantasy lineups and a few of these picks.

Nevertheless, it's time for me to start making some big moves.
Otherwise, I'm going to end up .500ish on everything involved with this weekly column.

Yeah, that's the ticket!

NFL Picks: 11-9 [Okay, we're starting to make SOME minor progress. Very minor.]
Upset Special: 2-5 [It's starting to get pathetic. Very pathetic.]

Dallas @ Arizona (+4)
A lot of talk has "wierd things happening in the desert". Since when, exactly? The Cowboys need to break out this week and the Cards are the right ticket. It'll be close until the half, when Dallas goes longball on a shaky Cards secondary.

Jacksonville @ Denver (-3)
These are the two teams (along with Pittsburgh) that make up my "Axis of Evil". Nevertheless, I'm tackling this challenge. The Jags bother me because of their ability to run the ball and make clutch field goals. Denver needs to make an AFC statement. They'll do it, barely.

Oakland @ New Orleans (-7)
The Saint defense is beyond horrible. Nevertheless, the Raiders don't have the leadership or the overall talent to score with the Saints. Memo to Javon Walker: you're allowed to catch passes after the first drive.

Upset Special #1
Green Bay @ Seattle (-1 1/2)
One liner: Matt Hasselbeck and Aaron Rogers may not finish this game in one piece.

Upset Special #2
Miami @ Houston (-3)
One liner: Miami at 3-2 is a playoff-caliber team.

Upset Special #3
New England @ San Diego (-4 1/2)
One liner: San Diego and LT won't need another excuse to justify a loss to the hated Patsies.

I'm taking a week sabbatical from fantasy football analysis and reactions. Why?
Because lately, I'm questioning any ability to conquer that beast.
And general apathy when I'm under the weather.

See you next week!!!

10 NFL/Fantasy Questions I’m Pondering This Week…

1) What’s LJ’s status, fat-contract and coming off an injury-plagued 2007, in Kansas City?

-After being cemented in top 3-overall selection banter for the past few seasons, last season’s LJ owners (me!) were welcomed with one word: BUST! Should anything more be expected from a me-first guy on a terrible offense in 2K8?

Okay, wrong LJ...but who doesn't LOVE this picture?
Credit: Deadspin

2) Why don’t more teams sit their superstars – ala San Diego and LT – in the preseason?

-Whether LT still has nagging issues or his durability was ultimately tested in the playoffs last season, the fantasy MVP of the past five-or-so seasons isn’t playing in the preseason this year. As for his prospective owners…well, they couldn’t be happier. What might become an issue down the road is the absence of Michael Turner backing up an ever-aging LT.

3) What on Earth do you make out of the QB-saga in Green Bay?

-I’m not wasting my breath answering this. However, it MUST be asked. By the way, I HATE BRETT FAVRE and TED THOMPSON! (Writer's Update: And now that he's a Jet...I love HIM!)

A little odd...for more reasons then ever NOW.
Credit: EA Sports

4) What will be the impact of Oakland’s rookie RB Darren McFadden?

-Justin Fargas can’t legitimately hold off this guy for long, can he? It should also go without saying (yet, I’ll still say it) that Michael Bush will be a forgotten prospect come camp time, especially with the fat contract the former Razorback netted. With an unproven commodity at QB (Jamarcus Russell) and a play-making wideout who is a day or two from quitting at any point, can McFadden truly be considered an impact playmaker as a rookie?

5) Is Randy Moss a legit 20-TD candidate again?

-There’s no reason to believe Touchdown Tom won’t light up the record books again, especially considering his squad’s LOSS in last year’s Super Bowl (in which Moss caught his only playoff touchdown). Ditto for Moss when you consider the affinity these two have both in and out of the redzone for making the big play. While 20 TDs back-to-back seasons is too much to ask of anyone, are you seriously willing to bet against it?

Joe Buck's reaction to any Moss talk at PHSports.

6) Do you dare draft Maurice Jones-Drew?

-One of the “it” guys last season, Jones-Drew was just as likely to go for a buck and a TD as he was for 1 point. Seriously. Not to mention, Fred Taylor is bound to steal a dozen-or-so touches a game and a 6-8 TDs (at least) as he was Pro Bowler last season. In the end, MJD is far too unreliable unless you have crazy depth at the position or incredible faith that he’ll become a redzone stalwart for the Jags.

7) Is there a Chicago Bear, not on defense, worth drafting?

-Here’s the countless scenarios needed to even consider the likes of Grossman/Orton being in your starting lineup:
A) Two starting QB-league
B) Major injuries at the QB position
C) Bye weeks galore are killing your roster
D) You have a serious drinking problem
E) You’re a diehard Bears fan. And I mean DIEHAD!

Undoubtedly, somebody in your league will take a “bold, yet fun risk” on newly signed RB Kevin Jones, while wideout Bernard Berrian, with a new contract, will likely net consideration in the middle rounds for his big-play making ability. Perhaps the real question should’ve surrounded that Hester-guy. Good luck on that accord as well.

Dante Hall "Block in the Backs Never Called" couldn't hold this guy's jock. Yeah, I said it.
Credit: CNNSI

8) Who’s your top TE: Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Kellen Winslow II, or Tony Gonzalez?

-All four have a legitimate claim. Honestly. Gates seems the consensus, but only slightly. Witten benefits most from Romo-to-TO, K2 is on the NFL’s up-and-coming offense, and Gonzo is still Gonzo. In the end, I suppose you can walk away a winner with either of these four. Another question might be: who’s number 5? (Cooley, anyone?)

9) Which of the Jags wideouts would you be most willing to take a flier on?

-Jerry Porter is considered the “impact” free-agent signing, Troy Williamson is the draft bust looking to start anew, Reggie Williams was the touchdown-magnet (but nothing else) last season, and Dennis Northcutt dropped that crucial pass in the AFC Divisional Round against those damned Pats. Who ya got and when?

10) Is Javon Walker even worth it anymore?

-I’m not going to rip this guy. Sure he nearly quit on the Raiders after netting $50-million and ended up unconscious and robbed on some random Vegas back alley. Nevertheless, you can’t forget that he was with Darrent Williams (RIP) the night Williams was shot and killed. Reports have it going down as Walker basically holding Williams in his arms after he was shot and ultimately killed in the back of his SUV. Try dealing with that reality before demonizing Walker and his odd offseason antics.

Is Raider-nation going a little too Watchmen lately?
Credit: PhotoBucket

I’m sure there are better questions and even better answers out there.

But at least I’m trying!

Until next time…

Favre '08: Yes He Can! (A "rumor" with "no reason"?)

As a citizen of the United States, I have had the opportunity to cast a ballot in two presidential elections in my life so far. This November will be the third, although my interest in presidential politics has existed since the 1992 elections. As an “armchair political analyst,” (hey, I need something to do during the NFL off-season, when I can’t be an “armchair quarterback”) I have developed a general and simplistic formula as to what makes a good presidential candidate.

The individual must first have great popularity from his local constituency. This isn’t necessarily the person’s “home” or “birth” city/state, but rather where the bulk of public service has occurred. Second, the person must deny the initial inquiries into her/his desire to run. However, the denials must be done in a manner that allows the person to seem flattered by the “suggestion” and also allows the door to remain slightly cracked open. This second stage can last anywhere from a few days to months. Finally, the individual should throw her/his hat into the race on either a late night talk show or during an interview on a “news” channel. This last step must include in the announcement either a backhanded slap at the current administration or demeaning comments about opponents in the upcoming election. Of course, both before and during the race, the person must continuously change stances on important issues, and must make some statements that make no sense whatsoever.

My friends, with that formula in mind, I give you the ideal candidate to support in the 2008 Presidential Elections: Brett Lorenzo Favre. If Favre approaches the presidential elections how he has approached the issue of his retirement from the NFL, then nobody else stands a chance.

He stinks at making up his mind, I stink at Photoshop. Hey, Brett, need a running mate?

Favre enjoys unquestioned support and loyalty from the citizens of Green Bay, WI. It doesn’t matter that his infatuation with gun-slinging was a huge reason that the Giants were able to come back in, and ultimately win, the NFC Championship game last season. It doesn’t matter that his mind for football is fairly miniscule. He’s their hero, he can do no wrong, and he has their support.

Since 2002, Favre has toyed with the idea of retiring every off-season. At times he let the issue last well into the summer months before making a clear statement as to his intentions. And each off-season, when reporters asked him of his decision, he opted to deflect the issue. When he finally retired after this past season, many questioned whether Favre would remain retired. Questions were asked regularly, and Favre would provide an incomplete answer peppered with his boyish charm. He kept this up through July 2, when questions about his intent to return to football crept up again and he responded by referring to it as “rumor” for which there was “no reason.”

Admittedly, Favre muffed the final stage a bit. He allowed the news media and the Packers to leak the story that he had requested to return and requested a release. Favre then waited several days before making his appearance on Fox News. But what an appearance it was! Favre proclaimed, with regard to Green Bay, “I can't envision being with anyone else, or haven't envisioned being with anyone else,” even though on June 20^th he clearly asked for his release from the team. He continued to lambaste his opponents, Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson, for mistreatment, and made it clear he wanted a release from his contract.

This release demand fits the bill perfectly for the “flip-flop” requirement. In 2005, Green Bay wide-receiver Javon Walker held-out, wanting either a new contract or out of his contract. Favre made his thoughts clear on the matter, “Maybe I’m old-school, but I always thought you honor a contract. Sure, sometimes guys pass you up in salary, and maybe it’s a lesser player, but it’s all based on what a team has as far as value in that person. I sure hope the Packers don’t give.” Of course, Favre does not apply this train of thought to himself. In his mind, his demands are not monetary, but rather about playing. And who wouldn’t want an aged interception-slinger as their starting QB, especially when they have devoted the entire off-season to retooling the offense around a new player?

Brett, you have demonstrated that you have the unquestioned loyalty of your constituents/fan-base, the ability to be coy in answering questions and the fantastic talent of flip-flopping and not holding yourself accountable to the same rules you apply to everyone else. Forget football. Run for President. FAVRE ’08!!!

Free Agency: 5 Questions You Might Not Have Considered

There have been more than enough offseason moves since last Friday including:

-Derek Anderson inking a 3-year deal with the Browns.
-Asante Samuel bolting for the NFC and the Philadelphia Eagles for record-CB money.
-Pittsburgh’s former OG Alan Faneca signing the richest contract for an offensive lineman in history with the New York Jets.
-San Francisco making another big-money addition to their defense via DE Justin Smith.
-Randy Moss re-inking with the Patriots, apparently at a discounted price, for 3 years at $27 million.

Forget salary cap-crunching, franchise tags, restrictions on free agents and guaranteed money. As hard as that is, let’s dissect some of the not-so-obvious moves made this offseason.

And no, we don’t mean the ludicrous contract Oakland gave DE/DT Tommy Kelly (fresh off an ACL tear, no less).

Does Walker's departure give Oakland the AFC West's top wideout?
Credit: FootballForum.com

#5. The New York Jets sign FB Tony Richardson

Comment: Honestly, do even 50% of NFL teams utilize true fullbacks? Lacking any consistency in the position (and playing time for Darian Barnes at all this season), this 1-year pickup may speak to the Jets throwing the ball more. While the Jets have been ripped in the media for spending like the Skins of years past, it’s obvious the team wants to return to the 10-6 days, rather then slowly rebuild from 4-12 this past season.

Draft Implications: This signing also opens up questions as to what the Jets may do if faced with Darren McFadden being available at the 6^th pick. My advice: trade the pick, select Rashard Mendenhall and use the 2^nd- or 3^rd-rounders on help for the secondary.

#4. The Oakland Raiders sign WR Javon Walker

Comment: Mammoth contracts for Tommy Kelly (sorry, I had to mention it again) and former Giants safety Gibril Wilson may have gotten the majority of the coverage early; however, Walker’s massive 6-year deal raises just as many questions. No longer restrained by the malcontent duo of Randy Moss/Jerry Porter, the Oakland front office landed last year’s #1 pick JaMarcus Russell and a top-flight wideout (when healthy). The good news is that before Walker’s season-long injuries began in Week 3, he appeared as if he’d be productive in his second straight season in Denver. A season removed from the tragic death of Darrent Williams – as well as a change of location – may do Walker more than good.

Draft Implications: Six months ago, even I thought California WR DeSean Jackson was too good to be true in Oakland. Now, the Raiders may have to decide on passing up on Heisman-runner up Darren McFadden or adding to their interior pass rush with the 4^th overall selection. Walker’s addition to the offense may turn the front office to seek added protection for Russell…or perhaps a game-breaking RB to open up play-action passes downfield.

#3. The Jacksonville Jaguars acquire WR Troy Williamson and sign WR Jerry Porter

Comment: With WR Ernest Wilford in Miami and rumors abound surrounding a trade of Matt Jones on or near draft day, the Jags receiving corps is getting a complete makeover. Fortunately, redzone favorite Reggie Williams is around and Dennis Northcutt (costly drops in playoff games withstanding) is a savvy veteran every roster needs. After trading for former 7^th overall pick, a definitive bust to this point, Troy Williamson for one free music download on iTunes (okay, it was for a 6^th rounder), the Jags have almost nothing to lose on a player with blazing speed AND a bad case of the dropsies. As for Jerry Porter, he may be the biggest wild card in free agency this season. Carrying a back-loaded contract, Porter has All-Pro talent yet has lacked professionalism. While Porter isn’t likely to put up post-Raider Moss numbers, he might be talented enough to take this offense to the next level.

#2. The Washington Redskins re-sign backup QB Todd Collins

Comment: Jason Campbell should be 100% when mini-camp rolls around this June. That’s good news as new head coach Jim Zorn (never an offensive coordinator before being hired to do so in Washington for around 2 ½ weeks) has big plans for the big-armed QB. An even wiser move was locking up the 38 years young Collins as a backup for the next three seasons. Leading the Skins to four wins in their final four games, Collins proved he’s capable of making the throws necessary for this offense to move the ball downfield. What becomes most interesting is a scenario in which the Skins struggle out of the gates, does Campbell have a shorter leash than expected? Or, was Collins simply brought in to be one of the league’s best insurance policies.

#1. The New Orleans Saints sign CB Randall Gay and acquire ILB Jonathan Vilma

Comment: It’s too early to write off last year’s top acquisition CB Jason David from then-Super Bowl champion Indianapolis. If last year was any indication, David is much better suited in the nickel corner role. At inside linebacker, the Saints have tried their best to fill the position with good guy, overachiever types. Enter Vilma, who is recovering from a serious (and potentially lingering) knee injury, who will be ecstatic to prove the doubters in New York wrong as he returns to his forte 4-3 scheme. As for Gay, many feel he was simply a system-defender and many remember him being burned by a double-move from Super Bowl champion wideout Plaxico “Guarantee” Burress (I love saying that, by the way).

Draft Implications: Suddenly, the Saints are left with plenty of options with the 11^th pick in this year’s draft. Some might have thought their initial targets might have been at either linebacker (e.g. Keith Rivers) or cornerback (Aqib Talib, Mike Jenkins, or even Dominique Cromartie-Rodgers). Yet, they appear to be in the position to go after the “best player available” on their board. All in all, this is not a bad luxury to have with the 11^th pick overall.

Which moves are you most excited or disappointed about? Did any teams seriously drop the ball or move quietly through the first-week frenzy to your delight?

Until next time