NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 5.0

We are firmly into February and the RPI rankings officially matter. They matter enough to have the top 36 teams according to the RPI included in this edition of the projections. Arkansas, currently 37^th, was edged out for the final at-large spot by Maryland, who had a good week despite splitting home games versus Virginia and Duke.

Meanwhile, Purdue and Old Dominion see themselves in right now as a result of cataclysmic weeks for Texas Tech (two losses, including at home to Nebraska), New Mexico St. (two losses), and Northern Iowa (three losses, including two to RPI sub-100 teams). In Morgantown, West Virginia finally got the signature victory (versus UCLA) they needed to cement their status as an at-large team.

In the Valley, Southern Illinois completed the season sweep of Creighton while Bradley and Wichita St. seek to make a late surge. Out west, UCLA remains a one-seed after its loss to the Mountaineers, but has Ohio State and Texas A&M on its tail.

Lastly, you are a team that’s 10-3 (21-4 overall) in a top 3 conference. In your losses, two of which were in overtime, you have lost by a total of 8 points. You are 8-2 in your last ten games and have a better road record than almost all teams on seed lines below you. This team is Washington St., and that’s why I have them as a 3 seed.

If you have any questions to be answered in Tuesday’s NCAA Bracket-Related Questions, either send a comment or shoot me an email (phashemi@gmail.com).

Seed	East	South	Midwest	West
1	North Carolina	Florida	Wisconsin	UCLA
2	Pittsburgh	Kansas	Texas A&M	Ohio St.
3	Washington St.	Memphis	Marquette	Southern Illinois
4	Kentucky	Indiana	USC	Georgetown
5	Butler	Arizona	Boston College	Nevada
6	Air Force	Virginia	Creighton	Oregon
7	Virginia Tech	Missouri St.	Vanderbilt	Duke
8	Villanova	Clemson	West Virginia	Oklahoma St.
9	Kansas St.	UNLV	Xavier	Tennessee
10	Georgia	Stanford	BYU	Gonzaga
11	VCU	Alabama	Florida St.	Notre Dame
12	Purdue	Winthrop	Texas	Old Dominion
13	Holy Cross	Davidson	Akron	Maryland
14	Pennsylvania	Texas A&M – Corpus Christi	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Vermont	South Alabama	Marist	Austin Peay
16	Delaware St.	Miss. Valley St./Central Connecticut St.	E. Tennessee St.	Weber St.

Last Four In: Texas, Old Dominion, Purdue, Maryland
Last Four Out: Arkansas, Illinois, Appalachian St., Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Drexel, Texas Tech, Wichita St.

IN: West Virginia, Tennessee, Old Dominion, Purdue, Maryland, Davidson, Miss. Valley St.
OUT: Texas Tech, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, New Mexico St., Appalachian St., Jackson St.

Summary
ACC: 8
Big East: 6
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
Big Ten: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 2