Applying The NCAA Tournament Selection Manifesto

Nearly three weeks of basketball has been played since my tournament selection manifesto was written on January 22 and we're beginning to see trends develop amongst teams.

The Criteria

1. Conference RPI. This statistic has been neglected by a lot of bracketologists who continue to give seven bids to a fledgling Big East conference based on previous success. Let's hope the tournament selection committee is privied to such statistics.
2. An average of RPI and Pomeroy rankings. Through prior practice, I've seen that an average of the two, albeit imperfect, resembles the closest thing to my "eye test" rankings.
3. Conference Record. Ultimately, this depends on what conference you’re in. Are you going to select a < .500 team from a conference with a RPI between 4 and 7 or are you going to select
4. Big Wins. Signature wins speak for themselves. A 7-4 record with no wins of note means very little even when in a power conference. West Virginia can afford a bad game in conference after they defeated UCLA, assuming that the Bruins sustain their high ranking.
5. The Eye Test. This comes down to game tape and how much you can watch. Admittedly, I'm an East Coast guy, but I get my fair share of the Pac-10 thanks to FoxSportsNet's coverage. This is still very dangerous, as teams (e.g. Purdue yesterday @ Ohio State) can gain sympathy points in the eyes of bracketologists despite letting a late lead slip.
6. Bad Losses. In addition to losses against bad teams (especially against RPI sub-150 teams), I take into account margin of defeat. If a team consistently loses big when it succumbs to defeat, I will pay less attention to the RPI ranking.
7. Injuries/Suspensions. The indefinite suspension of Josh Heytvelt looms large for Gonzaga's at-large hopes should they not earn the automatic bid in the West Coast Conference. However, we shouldn't assume that Gonzaga's level of play will drop. Just a few weeks ago, many of us thought Boston College was left for dead when Al Skinner dismissed shot-altering center Sean Williams from the team.
8. Away Wins. I cannot emphasize this enough. Nothing tests character more than how a team performs in enemy territory. In the case of a road split, the team with the win closest to the tournament wins roughly 60% of the spoils. A great example of this is Arizona's redemption in Eugene.