National League’s "August Rush" alongside Trade Deadline Gripes

It’s no secret that it’s ridiculously brutal to predict just which player is going where, especially when your rough draft of a post is being formulated less than 8 hours from the trade deadline. Despite the incredible work done by the likes of Buster Olney, Jason Stark, Ken Rosenthal, CNNSI.com, and the creative team at Yahoo! Sports (yes, I’m propping up the four-letter network first and foremost at what they do best: baseball coverage)…how on Earth can anyone expect to analyze the stretch run in the National League properly? (The AL was only slightly easier as it was BEFORE the trade-deadline). Well???

THIS is the man you go to for smart, yet savvy baseball analysis.
Credit: MartialArts.com

Especially when Man-Ram appeared to be Florida bound, Fuentes could’ve gone or stayed at any moment around midnight, the Astros (for some reason or another) continued to baffle me with deadline rumors abound, and Greg Maddux wanted to stay on the West Coast somehow (oh who cares!).

(Wednesday evening’s Pudge deal def axed any Jose Molina-talk from yesterday’s post. Thanks Cashman!)

Of course, that doesn’t even touch on what the D-Backs, Dodgers, Mets, Cardinals, Cubs, and Brew Crew might’ve done. Sadly, the Pirates were involved more than ever with Jason Bay’s name floating around more in rumors than Britney Spears. They also traded guys named Nady and Marte, in case you were buried in a hole this weekend and didn’t hear about it, for little to nothing it appeared.

By the way…there won’t be a mentioning, not even one, of waiver-wire deals as well.

As far as I’m concerned, they won’t happen or matter. (Sure…)

Back to NL analysis and prognosticating…via the relatively forgotten – yet incredibly vital – role player(s) down the stretch for each squad.

Random note: anybody else REALLY miss Harold Reynolds on national television these days? I DO!!!
Credit: NYDailyNews

NL East

Things in New York are going to be brutal for both those in the Bronx, Queens, and all over the legendary boroughs. Duh. While Pedro’s attempted return will get more than stale QUICK, the papers will likely target the more than well known fact that the Mets are DIDN’T make any last ditch attempts or two to add arms to both the starting rotation and the bullpen. In the meantime, I’m still baffled Mike Pelfrey has 9 wins and an ERA hovering around 3.60. While the press is all over the wildly inconsistent Oliver Perez (especially away from Shea), I’m watching Pelfrey slowly become one of the more reliable arms in the Met rotation.

I still have nightmares about this.

The Phillies can bash it with the best; however, even in as friendly a park as theirs…will it be enough? I could drone on day after day about countless overachieving short relievers or the newly acquired Joe Blanton. Instead, I’m targeting an oft-injured, highly-erratic 4-9 pitcher named Brett Myers. Why the fascination? After 7 strong innings giving up only one run on four hits (even if against the Nats), Myers YET AGAIN gets to be the hit-0r-miss pitcher for the Phils postseason run.

The Marlins without Manny Ramirez. It would’ve been so much fun seeing the $20-million man on the $22-million roster. Counting them out, even sans-analysis, would be a MISTAKE.

NL Central

The Cubs had a feel-good first half from the man they call Fukudome; yet the honeymoon might already be over (even with a solid 2-4, 2 RBI day Thursday afternoon). His hitting has gone stone cold for stretches this summer and the thrill may in fact be gone. Despite controlling a brutally important series in Milwaukee (SWEEP!!!), the Cubs need as much pop as they can get from their Japanese import in the next couple months. Especially since runs are tough, if not impossible, to come by when you see some of the 1-2 combos in the NL (Hamel/Blanton, Santana/Maine, Webb/Haren, Sheets/Sabathia, Carpenter/Loshe, etc.). Much luck Kosuke!

The Brew Crew need Ricky Weeks to do two things: stop booting balls in the infield and stop hitting as inconsistently as a drunkard on a batting tee. Simple enough?

Tony LaRussa and the Cards overcame a sweep on the hands of the aforementioned Crew to stay lurking in the shadows of both the NL Central and NL Wild Card race. I could try and peg a name or pretend I’m an expert on this year’s edition of St. Louis’s best. Instead, I’m going with my heart (Chris Carpenter returning from any injury stemming all the way back in April 2007) AND my head (Adam Wainwright returning from the DL to either his previous closing role or as a starter again).

NL West

I’m not talking about this division. I’m sorry, but it’s putrid. Sadly though, I have to admit, seeing Brandon Webb and Dan Haren in a five-game series might be brutal…for anyone. And I suppose a deal for the ManRam-guy is just a little intriguing. A little.

Hey Brit! Drop the zero and get a HERO!!!
Credit: WizBangBlog

Oh yeah, attention DBacks front office: Connor Jackson better be an All-Star…or Arizona will rue the day they held on so tightly to their #1-prospect.

As for the “fourth playoff spot in the NL”, when you’re talking wild-card in the National League, you probably could throw a dart in the general direction of the NL East’s runner-up…but only after the runner-up of the Central. Mark that down as not a prediction, but a fact.

Until next time…and next waiver-deal (rumor).

August Rush: NO, not the terrible movie

As September lurks in the baseball shadows, far too often fans forget that the “real” playoff & pennant races often sees its initial, and often final, separation in the month of August.

Here’s what we know, we think, as of July 30^th:

-The Halos, fresh off acquiring Mark Teixeira from Atlanta, are a mortal lock for the AL West crown.

-The AL East could be won by three teams: Boston, New York, and front-running (yes, still) Tampa Bay.

-The AL Central is still open; however, the smart money has Detroit on the outs and Minnesota/Chicago (ChiSox edition) in it to win it all the way.

Can YOU name this teen sensation-MVP candidate???
Credit: SBNation

As for the senior circuit…

-The NL East, much like its AL counterpart, has three teams in the mix: division-leading New York, Philadelphia, and Florida.

-The NL Central is top-loaded with Chicago and Milwaukee on top. St. Louis appears to be fading, but never count out a LaRussa-led team.

-The NL West is a debacle, yet appears a two-horse race between Arizona and Los Angeles.

It's about time the playoff race got a little "classed up".
Credit: BrewerNation

It’d be a MISTAKE to dismiss the 2^nd-place “typically overachieving” team out of the AL Central (as of now, the Twins by only ½ game) and even the Rangers (yes, with THAT pitching staff in August even) from the wild race; however, it seems likely the AL East will yet again pluck the wild-card out of the AL.

The same can’t and most likely won’t be said of the NL East, as Milwaukee is the safest bet to secure the wild-card; especially considering the likely frantic final weeks in the race between the Mets, Phils, and Fish.

For today’s primary focus, we’re talking American League though.

So without too much further banter, let’s take a look at a player from each team – suspiciously under the radar – who will affect the pennant races more than you might’ve expected.

AL East

Tampa Bay Rays – Lose the “Devil” and suddenly you’re the feel-good story of the American League. They should’ve done it years before! The name to watch is one you might not even have heard of. While there may still be a move or two to be made from the front office, specifically in the pen, their top acquisition of August is likely to be the call-up of last year’s #1 overall pick, Vanderbilt’s David Price. With nearly unquestioned command and downright filthy stuff, Price might be the perfect addition to an already young nucleus of starting-talent.

Clearly getting the "Devil" out of their Rays was the best move possible for Tampa.
Credit: RottenToons

Boston Red Sox – Jacoby Ellsbury has struggled with the bat as of late. However, he is a rock solid fielder (whether in left, center, or right) and can tear up the base path. Nevertheless, the Sox are a much more lethal team when he leads off and Youklis can move behind the potent duo of Ortiz/Ramirez (for now Ellsbury is batting around the 9^th-slot). Problem is, his average post-April has been steadily declining with a not-so-amazing OPS for an expected leadoff hitter. Francona may only be able to spot start-him down the stretch if his struggles continue.

New York Yankees – Jose Molina has some pretty big cleats to fill in that of Jorge Posada. His backup, Moeller, isn’t likely to have an important hit the rest of his life. Meanwhile, with Posada now shut down for the remainder of the season, Molina will have to anchor an overachieving set of starting pitchers (have you seriously looked at their top 5?) and yield enough of a bat down the stretch to keep him from being a daily offensive liability. Good luck, Jose.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox – Carlos Quentin just might be your AL MVP and Jermaine Dye is probably the least respected superstar of the past five seasons (okay, he did earn World Series MVP honors). Nevertheless, the ChiSox might be hitching their wagon to unknown starting entity: 10-game winner Gavin Floyd (a former 1^st-round pick who until this season had never seen more than 70 innings of big league pitching).

Minnesota Twins – After a dismal series in the Bronx, the Twinkies have more than answered the bell against the potentially-slumping ChiSox. While stories like Livan Hernandez’s team-leading 10 wins and all the mystery surrounding Francisco Liriano are intriguing, I have my eyes on a once-considered “mini-bust” in left field, Delmon Young. Never near the throttles of a pennant-chase before, Young is hitting in a solid middle of the lineup with a solid .291 average and 18 doubles. What bugs me though is a real lack of athleticism in the field, only 4 home runs, and barely 40 RBIs. While Mauer is a hitting machine and Morneau an MVP-candidate again…unless Young starts to strike fear into opposing pitchers, I wonder if the Twins (and their modest payroll) may float out of relevance down the stretch.

ernandez

I couldn't disagree more.
Credit: Need4Sheed

AL West

Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim, how lame) – Okay, so we know they are playoff bound. Lock it up! Either way, I’m keeping my eyes fixated on two things: the stability of K-Rod in close games come September AND last season’s top acquisition (sorry, Tori) John Garland. Owning the playoffs just three years ago, Garland (only 9-6 with a near 4.50 ERA) just might be the arm, if healthy, that allows me to even consider the Angels taking out the BoSox when it counts most…playoff time. Let me say this as well: without homefield advantage over Boston, Anaheim becomes a MAJOR underdog to the defending champs. Yep, I said it.

Nobody was happier than me when this guy got handed the pink slip.

Note to Tiger fans: I knew well before the 0-6 start that Detroit was going to be this year’s bust. Their pitching is suspect to say the least, they are injury prone, and just wait until the second or third week of August for Sheffield to go AWOL. I’m pulling their plug NOW.

The NL gets the “treatment” tomorrow (or so). I know you’re waiting on baited breath.

Credit: WordPress

Until next time…

MLB Questions: Senior Circuit Edition

And we’re back!!!

While we had a lot of fun dissecting the AL around 24 hours ago (now that's turn around!), there’s no reason the same enthusiasm can’t be found as we now lace up out boots and begin to target the National League [aka the senior circuit].

Maybe that wasn’t the best correlation right there.

Nevertheless, drop your DH-woes and sit back, relax, and ponder – alongside me, of course – the burning hot-stove questions (think ESPN uses that exact vernacular enough?) focusing directly, as well as I can possible hope to at least, on the haves and have nots on the other side of the baseball standings.

National League East
New York Mets [49-40] lead division by 1.5 games
-Once the hottest team in baseball, the Mets are now searching for answers – as quickly as they can attempt to – as their previous stranglehold over the NL East has all but evaporated away. Front and center of their recent woes is the cold-hard truth that Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, and Paul LoDuca have been more than disappointing this season. The pitching staff, with only John Maine reliable as of late, also needs big-time help. The penultimate question is easy, at least for me: Will Pedro, for better or worse, return this season and bring hope to the Mets nation?

Atlanta Braves [48-42] trail 1.5 for division lead & 2 games behind the wild-card leader
-Yep, they’re back. In fact, Atlanta stands to benefit the most with the recent woes in Shea and the dogfight that has become the NL West (they all can’t keep winning, can they?). While injuries have hurt a bit, guys like Tim Hudson, Brian McCann, and even Chipper have started to step it up. One letdown this season has yet to come around though. Will Andruw Jones escape his putrid performance thus far this season in time for the Braves to avoid coming up just short in the race for the Playoffs?

Philadelphia Phillies [46-44] trail by 3.5 games for the divison lead & 4 behind the wild-card chase
-I’m sorry, but I don’t buy this team. Not for one second, in fact. They have the wrong player leadership, the wrong front office, and definitely the wrong manager to rally the team into legitimate playoff contention. While they might flirt with a serious run, even until the last few weeks of the season, I gotta ask: At what point do the Phillies completely fall out of the playoff race? Something tells me, it’ll be a couple weeks after loss 10,000.

Florida Marlins [43-48] banished from playoff contention
-There they are…the little team that almost could. Despite an MVP-talent in Miguel Cabrera, this franchise has already twice blown up World Series-potential rosters. The money just isn’t in South Florida for the Marlins to properly re-sign talent. (Or so that’s what their management always has to say.) Despite plenty of young prodigies already littering the roster, even more may be on the way when one question is finally, perhaps, answered: Is the D-Train moving to a new destination soon?

Washington Nationals [37-53] banished from playoff contention
-Considering how deep and talented the division is (and how untalented the majority of their roster truly is), the Nats could honestly be worse. A lot worse, even. I won’t pick on them though. Instead, I’ll ask: Can Dmitri Young keep up this feel-good story and give Nats fans something positive to cling to?

National League Central
Milwaukee Brewers [49-40] lead division by 3 games
-What once seemed a runaway choice to secure the division title first, especially with Houston & St. Louis ridiculously underachieving, now has Brewers fans more than a little worried. The Brewers obviously haven’t been in this position, that is in first-place with a youthful, yet talented roster, in at least two decades. Can the Brew Crew right their ship in time to return to the land known as the Playoffs?

Chicago Cubs [46-43] trail division leader by 3 games & 3.5 games behind wild-card leader
-A few hours after Carlos Zambrano knocked Michael Barrett’s lights out, the Cubs seemed mere moments away from internal implosion. Fast forward several weeks and the Cubbies, their fans will now blame ME for saying this, are perhaps the most dangerous team lurking outside of the playoff race. There, I said it. I won’t banish them into further exile with any other comments. Well, except for one question. What excuse, justifiable or not, will Cub fans cling to this season when things ultimately go wrong?

St. Louis Cardinals [40-47] trail division leader by 8 games & wild-card leader by 8.5 games
-I think they’re TKO’d. But as the champs, they get a little more leverage than most would in such a situation. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out their main problem: when does this team, if ever this season, finally get healthy?

Pittsburgh Pirates [40-49] banished from playoff contention
-Even with their historic past, is this team currently thought of as anything except the team a skinnier Barry Bonds once played for?

Houston Astros [39-52] banished from playoff contention
-Not even this Astros team can contend for the playoffs. Honestly, is there a bigger disappointment this season that’s somewhat conveniently been swept under the rug of media attention?

Cincinnati Reds [37-53] banished from playoff contention
-Forget the team and its currently plight, or peril I should say, for a moment. Let’s have some fun instead. How many homers would Griffey have had if he’d stayed healthy? As of right now and for a career. You know you wanna at least venture a guess.

National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers [51-40] lead division by 0.5 games
-Raise your hand if you thought the Dodgers had the best record in the National League. [Hey, you in the back. Put your hand down, please.] While everything seems to be going well, I still spot this team as an easy-out in the first round. Despite being the only team above the 50-win mark, it’s important to mention, especially within the NL West, their playoff ticket is far from scratched. My real question is: what type of performance, and health, will we see from Brad Penny the second half of this season?

San Diego Padres [49-39] trail division lead by 0.5 games & lead wild-card race by 2 games
-Another poll question. [Get your hands ready again, please.] Who has the least losses in the National League? You guessed the Padres? Seriously. You’d be correct. Now nobody has serious doubts concerning the duo of Peavy/Young right now and the backend of that guy named Hoffman. At least not me. However, is Adrian Gonzalez really the guy to carry this team, with his power, through the murky waters of the NL West playoff chase?

Arizona Diamondbacks [48-43] trail division lead by 3 games & wild-card by 2.5 games
-Sorry to hate, but I’m still bitter over their World Series victory over the Yanks. Name five Arizona Diamondbacks. Go ahead. I’ll even spot you Randy Johnson. In fact, name two other Diamondbacks.

Colorado Rockies [45-44] trail division leader by 5 games & wild-card race by 4.5 games
-Who’s currently hitting .339, 16 homers, 70 RBIs, 57 runs, 30 2Bs, slugging .567, and has an OPS of .965? He’s your darkhorse NL MVP actually. Might be a good idea to get to know him.

San Francisco Giants [38-50] banished from playoff contention
-I won’t even mention the obvious. In fact, I’ll take a much different, and perhaps more appropriate route. Is Barry Zito the worst free agent signing of this past off-season AND is Tim Lincecum the real future ace in San Fran?

I know, that was two questions for the Giants. But neither involved that BALCO-related guy. (I might need to contact my attorney shortly, at least after making that remark.)

So it appears that the NL has been given its due. While it doesn’t often get the pub of the AL, don’t sleep on everything involved in its wicked and wild playoff chase. (Man, I wanted to use wacky too.)

In case you want more definitive storylines, I’ve got your back. Don’t forget about the logjams currently engulfing the NL West, the Braves/Mets/Phils battling in the East, and that team in Chicago currently looming in the Central.

Oh yeah, and some guy is going for 756, too.

All that and more for the next couple months as we push closer to October.

Until next time...