What happened to the confidence of Rhode Island in February? Perhaps, they need Tyson Wheeler.Courtesy: www.uri.edu
With my favorite weekend of the regular season (i.e. BracketBusters Weekend) out of the way, let’s just cut to the chase.
After Tennessee’s win against Memphis, they catapulted to the top overall seed. Let’s fast forward to the final #1 seed. Texas has the credentials (wins v. Kansas, v. Tennessee on a neutral court and @ UCLA) but I see two losses (@ Kansas State on Monday and in the Big XII tournament) in their future and Kansas taking home the Big XII title because of depth and talent. Somehow, I have a feeling that I’ll get some lovely comments at around 11:05pm Eastern time on Monday night following their tussle against the Beasleys.
Now, let’s examine a few teams that are especially tough to predict.
Marquette – With a useless game against Florida Gulf Coast inside a sandwich of @ Villanova, v. Georgetown and @ Syracuse, the Warriors can either sweep or lose 3 of 4. Sweep and you’re 13-5 in a top 4 conference which suggests a #3 or #4 seed. Lose all 3 and you’re 10-8. Not to mention, you’re leaving it up to the devices of the tournament selection committee if you’re one-and-done at MSG.
Miami – After one of the greatest weeks in Miami basketball (an oxymoron, to say the least) in about a decade, the Hurricanes’ remaining schedule (@ Clemson, v. Virginia, v. BC, @ Florida State) will be as tough as they would like to make it. Eight wins in the regular season should be enough for the ‘Canes, but nine can garner a #7 seed or better because their current play further validates the non-conference wins that were considered to be flukes just two weeks ago.
Texas A&M – There’s nothing like a 5-game win streak bookended by 3-game losing streaks to drive a bracketologist crazy. Right when you think you have a team pegged after winning two away games in succession, they lose twice at home to Oklahoma State and Nebraska. Following a home bout with Texas Tech, A&M had better pray for at least one excellent performance with matchups forthcoming @ Oklahoma, @ Baylor and v. Kansas. I’m already targeting the March 5 game at Baylor as a bubble-buster.
Kentucky – A couple weeks ago, I drew some ire for shockingly predicting the Wildcats to win 11 in the SEC after coasting to a 6-2 conference record. Thankfully, the reader was gracious enough to listen to the logic. That said, I am now predicting Kentucky to go 3-1 in their final four games giving them 12 conference victories on the tougher side of the SEC. Impressive to say the least (Kentucky, not me). For two straight years, I’m eating my words about Billy Gillispie. I’ll learn one of these years.
Kent State - For all the critics who have either e-mailed or commented hastily about my liking for and overseeding of Kent State, they can look no further than this game recap. Despite two bad losses, one of which was in the season opener, the Golden Flashes are white-hot. At 23-5 overall and 11-2 in the MAC East, Kent State has almost assured itself of an at-large bid should they reach 25 wins.
Southern Illinois – Call me absolutely nuts, but the Salukis have a tournament resume given the playing field. With two brutal matchups this week (@ Bradley with a healthy Ruffin, v. Illinois State) leading into Arch Madness, SIU is playing its best basketball of the year. Though they have 12 losses and play in the 8th-rated conference, SIU has a neutral court victory over Mississippi State and home wins against Drake, St. Mary’s, Western Kentucky and Nevada. They also rate 10th nationally in strength of schedule.
That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.
Marquette – With a useless game against Florida Gulf Coast inside a sandwich of @ Villanova, v. Georgetown and @ Syracuse, the Warriors can either sweep or lose 3 of 4. Sweep and you’re 13-5 in a top 4 conference which suggests a #3 or #4 seed. Lose all 3 and you’re 10-8. Not to mention, you’re leaving it up to the devices of the tournament selection committee if you’re one-and-done at MSG.
Miami – After one of the greatest weeks in Miami basketball (an oxymoron, to say the least) in about a decade, the Hurricanes’ remaining schedule (@ Clemson, v. Virginia, v. BC, @ Florida State) will be as tough as they would like to make it. Eight wins in the regular season should be enough for the ‘Canes, but nine can garner a #7 seed or better because their current play further validates the non-conference wins that were considered to be flukes just two weeks ago.
Texas A&M – There’s nothing like a 5-game win streak bookended by 3-game losing streaks to drive a bracketologist crazy. Right when you think you have a team pegged after winning two away games in succession, they lose twice at home to Oklahoma State and Nebraska. Following a home bout with Texas Tech, A&M had better pray for at least one excellent performance with matchups forthcoming @ Oklahoma, @ Baylor and v. Kansas. I’m already targeting the March 5 game at Baylor as a bubble-buster.
Kentucky – A couple weeks ago, I drew some ire for shockingly predicting the Wildcats to win 11 in the SEC after coasting to a 6-2 conference record. Thankfully, the reader was gracious enough to listen to the logic. That said, I am now predicting Kentucky to go 3-1 in their final four games giving them 12 conference victories on the tougher side of the SEC. Impressive to say the least (Kentucky, not me). For two straight years, I’m eating my words about Billy Gillispie. I’ll learn one of these years.
Kent State - For all the critics who have either e-mailed or commented hastily about my liking for and overseeding of Kent State, they can look no further than this game recap. Despite two bad losses, one of which was in the season opener, the Golden Flashes are white-hot. At 23-5 overall and 11-2 in the MAC East, Kent State has almost assured itself of an at-large bid should they reach 25 wins.
Southern Illinois – Call me absolutely nuts, but the Salukis have a tournament resume given the playing field. With two brutal matchups this week (@ Bradley with a healthy Ruffin, v. Illinois State) leading into Arch Madness, SIU is playing its best basketball of the year. Though they have 12 losses and play in the 8th-rated conference, SIU has a neutral court victory over Mississippi State and home wins against Drake, St. Mary’s, Western Kentucky and Nevada. They also rate 10th nationally in strength of schedule.
That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.
The Seedings
1: Tennessee (SEC), North Carolina (ACC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Xavier (A-10), Duke
3: Stanford, Louisville, Georgetown (Big East), Wisconsin (Big Ten)
4: UConn, Purdue (Big Ten), Indiana, Drake (MVC)
5: Notre Dame, Michigan State, Washington State, Marquette
6: USC, Vanderbilt, Butler (Horizon), Arizona
7: Kansas State, Clemson, Gonzaga (WCC), Mississippi State
8: Miami-FL, Kent State (MAC), Pittsburgh, St. Mary’s
9: Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arkansas, BYU
10: Texas A&M, UMass, South Alabama (Sun Belt), UNLV (MWC)
11: Maryland, Baylor, Villanova, Arizona State
12: Virginia Commonwealth (CAA), St. Joseph’s, Wake Forest, West Virginia
13: Southern Illinois, Davidson (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit)
14: Siena (Metro Atlantic), Cornell (Ivy), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Winthrop (Big South), American (Patriot)
16: Morgan State (MEAC), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Portland State (Big Sky), Robert Morris (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)
Last Four In: St. Joseph’s, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Southern Illinois
Last Four Out: Rhode Island, Illinois State, Ohio, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Houston, Creighton, Florida, Dayton
IN: Miami-FL, Villanova, Southern Illinois, Stephen F. Austin, Morgan State
OUT: Syracuse, Rhode Island, Houston, Sam Houston State, Hampton
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Xavier (A-10), Duke
3: Stanford, Louisville, Georgetown (Big East), Wisconsin (Big Ten)
4: UConn, Purdue (Big Ten), Indiana, Drake (MVC)
5: Notre Dame, Michigan State, Washington State, Marquette
6: USC, Vanderbilt, Butler (Horizon), Arizona
7: Kansas State, Clemson, Gonzaga (WCC), Mississippi State
8: Miami-FL, Kent State (MAC), Pittsburgh, St. Mary’s
9: Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arkansas, BYU
10: Texas A&M, UMass, South Alabama (Sun Belt), UNLV (MWC)
11: Maryland, Baylor, Villanova, Arizona State
12: Virginia Commonwealth (CAA), St. Joseph’s, Wake Forest, West Virginia
13: Southern Illinois, Davidson (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit)
14: Siena (Metro Atlantic), Cornell (Ivy), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Winthrop (Big South), American (Patriot)
16: Morgan State (MEAC), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Portland State (Big Sky), Robert Morris (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)
Last Four In: St. Joseph’s, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Southern Illinois
Last Four Out: Rhode Island, Illinois State, Ohio, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Houston, Creighton, Florida, Dayton
IN: Miami-FL, Villanova, Southern Illinois, Stephen F. Austin, Morgan State
OUT: Syracuse, Rhode Island, Houston, Sam Houston State, Hampton
Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
ACC: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
Big Ten: 4/11
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
ACC: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
Big Ten: 4/11
West Coast: 2/8
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Posts
8 comments:
Southern Illinois won't leave this week without a loss. I agree though that the Valley will get at least two bids.
It's arrogant for you to predict that Kansas finishes ahead of Texas.
It's ridiculous to rate a team 6th overall when they have defeated Tennessee, UCLA and Kansas who are 1st, 4th and 5th in your bracket. Only one of those was a true home game. Even if they lose two games, they should be a #1 seed as long as the teams they defeated do not falter too much.
On the Valley, they made a statement on BracketBuster weekend going 8-2 with only the 7th and 9th-placed teams succumbing to defeat. Off the bat, that demands 2 bids.
As for the Kansas/Texas talk, you have a strong point that was factored in. Of their two losses in conference, both were not good losses (@ Mizzou by 13 and @ A&M by 17). If Texas sweeps their away bouts this week, I'll change my tune and consider placing them as a #1 seed.
On the point of arrogance, many could've used that word in describing my pick of UNC above Duke in the ACC when the latter was 2 games ahead. Perhaps, I could be wrong with Texas, but I don't think a team that barely goes 8 deep can win the Big XII Tournament.
Arrogance? Such a harsh word.
I typically don't openly defend UNC fans, but I have to here.
In case you aren't a regular visitor (which we hope you continue or learn to become), we PROJECT here.
Pay is obviously projecting:
-Texas to lose @ Kansas State
-Kansas to win the Big XII tournament thanks to greater depth and issues related to Texas winning 3-straight games in a little under 3 weeks.
But we LOVE the comments.
Keep lovin' and hatin' and questionin'. That last one didn't work.
My questions:
1) Can Marquette lose 3 of 4, go out in the 1st round of the tourney and be a 50/50 call OR do you seem them automatically having their bubble burst?
2) If Kentucky is 1-and-done in the SEC tourney, what are their odds?
3) What does VCU need to be an at-large? (I assume winning their last two - tough task with Wilmington in town Wednesday night - and reaching the finals of a competitive CAA Championship game?
4) Who is your open and honest MOP? Hansbrough or Beasley?
Lata!
Great questions, Clement.
1) Marquette's a 50/50 depending on the surprises of Championship Week. Their early season away win at Wisconsin may get them over the hump.
2) On Kentucky, let's break it down by possible regular season record coupled with a one & down at the SEC tournament.
13-3 - IN with a #5-#8 seed. That means a season sweep of Tennessee.
12-4 - IN with a #6-#10 seed.
11-5 - 67% chance of being IN with #9 - #12 seed.
10-6 - 20% chance of being IN and praying that no bids no gets stolen. Possible last four teams in.
9-7 - No postseason.
3) As you suggested, VCU needs to win out and reach the finals of the CAA tournament to obtain an at-large bid. They also need to raise that RPI (51) - so that means rooting for the likes of Houston, Miami, Arkansas, Maryland, Bradley and Akron. That's all.
4) Hansbrough. He's won his team more games. Both are not dominant players on the defensive end.
Rhode island will make moves and somehow get in. Umass or st. joes will trip up as rhody has 3 games that it should/must win. Rhody wins out and gets to A-10 finals (not a reach) they will be in with xavier as the A-10 gets 2 bids.
I'm going to go ahead and disagree with you on that one. At 6-7 in the A-14 and losers of their last four games, winning out is not a certainty, as LaSalle has been a tough out lately and Charlotte could pose problems.
The key is Jimmy Baron, who has averaged less than 6ppg (5-for-30 from the field) during the four-game losing streak.
Even if they win out and make the A-14 finals, they will have to defeat at least one team who is currently in the field of 65. In comparing URI's resume with our field, the Rams are 0-4 against teams in PHSports 65.
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