NCAA Bracket-Related Questions and BracketBusters Banter

Today's edition of the questions touches upon the difficult decisions made in building Version 3 of the NCAA Tournament Projections. It also takes a jab at last night's ESPN BracketBusters' pairings.

NCAA Bracket-Related Questions
Q: USC as a 4 seed? Arizona as a 5?
A: My fellow bracket predictors disagree with me on this one, and that's fine. To this point, the Trojans have outplayed the teams below them. They won in Eugene against the Ducks and nearly claimed a victory versus UCLA. Their non-conference schedule was more difficult than most. As for the Wildcats, getting a 5 seed is a bigger demotion than it seems on paper. There is a precipitous decline in quality after the top 8 teams, of which the Wildcats were once a member. Currently, they have lost 4 of 5 and were blown out in their own building on Saturday. Before that, they were dominating RPI-top 100 teams with a steady offense, good rebounding, and some semblance of a defense.

Q: How does Alabama make the field despite being trounced on the road and winning via controversy?
A: I admit, this bid is a flyer. Alabama does currently not have the resume to be in the tournament. However, I think they will be able to turn it around rather soon. Ultimately, if they keep this up, they will be overtaken by mid-majors who gain crucial wins in mid-February and beyond.

Q: Did Chris Lofton's injury play a major role in your near exclusion of Tennessee?
A: Yes. They looked lost in Lexington on Sunday. Their role players became "roll players" because they rolled over in defeat. Expect them to rise when Lofton returns, because he is kind of a big deal.

Q: What ultimately pushed Syracuse over fellow Big East middlers West Virginia and Louisville?
A: Their win at Marquette. Away wins against quality opponents are priceless.

ESPN BracketBusters Banter
Q: What was your initial response after hearing the BracketBusters pairing?
A: Chris Clement is the only one who knows of my initial response, because he called me last night to inform me of the pairings. I can't air it in public circles, but I'll paraphrase to say that the Missouri Valley Conference is being handed more primo matchups than deserved.

Q: What's your more educated response?
A: Here's my top 7 home and road teams participating in this year's edition of the BracketBusters prior to the announcement:
Home: Butler, Nevada, Creighton, VCU, Missouri St., New Mexico St., Hofstra
Road: Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Winthrop, Appalachian St., Bradley, Drexel, Old Dominion

As it stands, the major outliers (based on my biased rankings) are Appalachian State playing at Wichita State and Holy Cross at Hofstra. While I feel miffed about the matchups for the top two CAA teams, my guess is that when the fine folks at ESPN did the pairings, they had VCU paired with Appalachian St.; however, they already played once this in Richmond. Before last night's pairings and their eventual shock loss to Delaware, Hofstra was on a 15-2 terror after starting the season 0-3.

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 3.0

The tournament projections return after two weeks worth of further conference assimilation. Alabama and Tennessee surely cannot be fans of Vanderbilt and Georgia’s unexpected ascendancy, yet they join the Commodores and Dawgs at the tail of the bracket.

The Missouri Valley continues to demonstrate parity; however, Southern Illinois and Creighton have pulled away [a bit] from the pack with 8-3 conference records. Meanwhile, the Big Ten continues to be top-heavy, the Big XII remains full of question marks, and the Big East seems mediocre at best. And don’t look now, because Coach K is talking to the referees to not only make sure that it’s okay for David McClure to get away with goaltending, but to also add too much time to the clock en route to a buzzer beater. Both happened and Duke defeated a stingy Clemson team, who might just go into a tailspin after letting Virginia rattle off the final 15 points in their home loss on Sunday.

Out west, Oregon reluctantly pulled off a Northwest split as they needed two Maarty Leunen free throws with under a second remaining to force the extra session at Washington State. After reeling off the first ten points in overtime, the Ducks barely hung on to win by 3. In Tucson, Arizona’s woeful January culminated in a 92-64 loss at the hands of North Carolina, who were themselves without three players in their normal rotation. They come in this week as the lowest 5-seed, needing strong performances in order to force their way back into the Power 16.

Seed	East	South	Midwest	West
1	North Carolina	Florida	Wisconsin	UCLA
2	Kansas	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Ohio St.
3	Marquette	Texas A&M	Duke	Memphis
4	Kentucky	USC	Southern Illinois	Virginia Tech
5	Arizona	Indiana	Oklahoma St.	Air Force
6	Nevada	Butler	Vanderbilt	Arkansas
7	Michigan St.	Clemson	Creighton	Washington St.
8	Notre Dame	Gonzaga	Stanford	Texas Tech
9	Missouri St.	Virginia	Georgetown	Northern Iowa
10	VCU	Georgia	Texas	Boston College
11	UNLV	New Mexico St.	Xavier	Villanova
12	Appalachian St.	Winthrop	Alabama	Syracuse
13	Holy Cross	Akron	Florida St.	Tennessee
14	Pennsylvania	Texas A&M – Corpus Christi	Oral Roberts	Western Kentucky
15	Vermont	E. Tennessee St.	Marist	Cal St. Fullerton
16	Delaware St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Austin Peay	Weber St.

Last Four In: Alabama, Syracuse, Florida St., Tennessee
Last Four Out: Bradley, Kansas St., West Virginia, BYU
Next Four Out: Hofstra, Maryland, Louisville, Georgia Tech

Summary:
ACC: 7
SEC: 7
Big East: 6
PAC-10: 6
Big 12: 5
Big Ten: 4
Missouri Valley: 4
Mountain West: 2
Western Athletic: 2

Thursday's Nuggets - The Mea Culpa Edition

I know. It's Friday, yet this is Friday's nuggets. Long story short, Armin wrote a damn good article and I wanted it to stand alone for more than an hour on Thursday. I was going to post but duty called elsewhere.

Before we go further on this journey, I am calling for the ardent readers who don't make five daily visits to the site (AKA not Sum) to subscribe to the site. How do you do that? In the same box in which you type website addresses, there is an orange icon on the right. Click on it. It will send you to the 'atom.xml' page, and it will ask you to choose a reader for your subscription. When you do that, click "Subscribe Now". All of your wildest dreams will come true. Housekeeping issues are done. Enjoy the post!

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We're going with larger title sizes from here on out. College basketball really is heating up, with a bunch of surprises and a few letdowns. But let's be serious. Nothing has been decided, yet trends are developing.

Mid-Majors
(1) From the mid-major beat, I finally got to watch Virginia Commonwealth (17-3, 9-0 Colonial) in person last night and they are undoubtedly playing the best basketball in the conference. The Rams happened to shoot 60% from behind the arc, but they also outrebounded the Patriots. They make up for their lack of size with speed, quickness, and physical play. Consistency from Will Fameni may determine how far this team may go.

(1a) Speaking of the CAA, Michael Litos, who runs the CAA Hoops blog, has a book that I recommend everyone buys. "Cinderella: Inside The Rise of Mid-Major College Basketball" should be hitting bookshelves in early February.

(2) The ESPN BracketBusters matchups will be announced on Sunday. The top television game is shaping up to Southern Illinois @ either Butler or Nevada. Last year, at this time, the mid-major experts excluding this guy was anticipating Bucknell @ Northern Iowa. While it was a great game, neither team made it past the round of 32 in the NCAAs. The teams in the showcase game may not be the best ones participating.

The Big 6
(3) Is it just me or does Arizona 2007 remind you a lot of Arizona 1997? A very athletic team. Check. Finesse team. Check. Criticized justly for lack of depth and not enough physical play at the defensive end. Check. Good chemistry. Check. We'll see if they defeat North Carolina like they did in regular season of their championship season. One problem: Tyler Hansbrough is no Serge Zwikker.

(4) I'm calling out the once Big East. Balance your scheduling. Now. Until you do, none of you can say, "[insert team] played a Big East schedule". That could mean playing Rutgers, Cincinnati, South Florida, St. John's, and Seton Hall (two of them twice), and not having Pittsburgh or Marquette on the schedule.

(5) Six games into their conference season, the SEC is not what I expected it to be. Vanderbilt, who lost to Furman (at home) and Wake Forest, is 4-2 in the conference following back-to-back road wins against Kentucky and LSU. Georgia is 4-2 as well, with controversial officiating and a Ronald Steele leaner denying the Bulldogs of a dominating 5-1 clip. So much can change in a week. If either of these teams are 8-4 in three weeks' time, color me shocked.

Valuation of Road and Neutral Victories
(6) All are road wins equal? Novices, homers, and conference apologists will say yes, but the truth is far from that. Within conferences, the weakest form of a road win is the away split, whereby both teams win on the opposition's home floor. Within each of those games, the stronger of the road wins is that which is closest to the NCAA Tournament. Additionally, non-conference road wins in November/December do not carry as much power as those in January or February because teams tend to represent their truest product in the months closest to Selection Sunday.

(7) What about *true* neutral court victories? This includes the ever-growing number of early season tournaments played in Maui, Alaska, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Las Vegas (twice). These games should undoubtedly be of great value, as the atmosphere represents the truest comparison to a tournament setting with a neutral court.

Is Jason Garrett the Next Head Coach of the Dallas Cowboys?

by Armin Mohajeri

The Dallas Cowboys hired Miami Dolphins QB coach Jason Garrett. However, the capacity in which he will join the team is still up in the air. For now, it looks as if the former Cowboys QB will join as the team's offensive coordinator. I feel there is one caveat. If the team fails to hire a coach with a big enough name for Jerrah Jones, Jason Garrett will be the next head coach of the Dallas Cowboys.

During his playing career Garrett showed signs that he could one day be an offensive coordinator in the NFL. He has coaching pedigree. His father coached him at Columbia, before Jason transferred to Princeton. Garrett was a clipboard holder for a while backing up Troy Aikman winning two Super Bowls. He started his coaching career as the 4th QB on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He was also among the list of coaches who turned down the University of Alabama head coaching job.

Numerous names were linked to the Cowboys head coaching vacancy as soon as there was speculation that Parcells was on his way out. Wade Phillips, Rex Ryan, Norv Turner, Ron Rivera and Jim Haslett are among the names that come to mind. There's even been mention of Marvin Lewis and Lovie Smith. Let's look at the candidates.

Wade Phillips - San Diego Chargers Defensive Coordinator: He seems to make the most sense. His 3-4 defense fits the Cowboys personnel, and his success with the Chargers defense this season makes him a hot commodity. Having a lot of money invested into a young talented group of linebackers, the Cowboys need a coach that will maximize their value.

Rex Ryan - Baltimore Ravens Defensive Coordinator: Another hot commodity is Rex (Son of Buddy) Ryan. He coached the NFL's #1 defense this past year. However, if the Cowboys were to hire Rex Ryan, I would say the chances are greater that Garrett would be the head coach while Ryan takes the role of assistant head coach/defensive coordinator.

Norv Turner - San Francisco 49ers Offensive Coordinator: Norv makes sense here because of his history with the team, and the fact that if Jerrah had to settle on Norval, Cowboys fans would take him back with open arms. Turner showed up somewhat big with the 49ers this year. Frank Gore had a breakout season, Alex Smith progressed as the season went on, and the team did better on offense than most thought they would. While the Garrett hiring all but negates Norv coming in, I wouldn't rule it out completely at some point in the future.

Ron Rivera - Chicago Bears Defensive Coordinator: Along with Norv Turner, Rivera has expressed interest in being the next head coach of the Cowboys. Rivera is long overdue for a head coaching gig. He's proven more than anyone else, as he's been able to craft his defense around his personnel better than any defensive coordinator out there. He seems to turn no-name LBs and DBs into solid (even spectacular) contributors very early in their careers.

Jim Haslett - St. Louis Rams Defensive Coordinator: Haslett has plenty of experience with the 3-4 defense when he was the defensive coordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He can offer a smooth transition for the defense. Haslett still sits high on the lists of several teams, although he has failed for the second time in a row (Saints HC, Rams DC). He may need another year with the Rams to prove he's still a hot commodity.

Marvin Lewis - Cincinnati Bengals Head Coach: Speculation is that the Bengals are trying to push Marvin Lewis out the door. With Carson Palmer's latest words, indirectly directed at Marvin Lewis and the coaching staff, regarding the 9 arrests in the last 13 months, things are coming apart at the seams in Cincy. Lewis proved while with the Redskins and Bengals that he's unwilling to adjust his defense to match the personnel available. We all remember the "Who Moved My Cheese" incident when he was with the Redskins. In my opinion, he would not be a good fit in Dallas. Add to that the fact that Lewis is still under contract as a Head Coach, meaning the Cowboys would have to give the Bengals some Gruden-like compensation to land him.

Lovie Smith - Chicago Bears Head Coach: Landing Lovie would be a coup for the Cowboys. He's probably the hottest commodity out there that probably won't switch teams. Mark my words, this will not happen. Every team handles extending their head coach differently. The Bears will keep Lovie around.

Looking at this list of candidates, I would put Wade Phillips as the most likely candidate to land the job. The Cowboys have finished interviewing for the head coach spot within the team. Since Todd Bowles (DB Coach) is African-American, they've fulfilled their obligation of interviewing a minority (though Ron Rivera would fit that bill as well). Yesterday, the Cowboys asked the Chargers for permission to interview Phillips for their head coaching vacancy. A hiring could be in short order.

NCAA Tournament Selection: The Manifesto -- Version 1.0

For every great piece of thought or revelation, there is a systematic element recorded in writing that explains laws, rules, and how decisions are to be made. The first version of The NCAA Tournament Selection Manifesto lays out the approach in which I predict the participating field. So, without further adieu, enjoy The Manifesto -- Version 1.0.

Q: How do you select representatives from one-bid conferences, in addition to conference champions?
A: Before I go into the questions, let me first state I am a major advocate for Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. Prior to conference play, I usually select the conference winner based on an average of the ratings percentage index (RPI) ranking and the Pomeroy ranking. Once conference games begin, I almost always pick the team with the best record in the conference, with RPI ranking as the tie-breaker. While this exposes some weaknesses in the system, the problems resolve themselves come mid-February.

Q: What are your major criteria (in no order)?
A: First, let me state that the polls play a small role in my predictions. Preseason predictions taint so many minds. Second, here are my criteria:

1. Conference RPI. That means how your conference fares against the others. I’m generally weary of outliers that skew the overall conference rankings.
2. An average of RPI and Pomeroy rankings. RPI measures strength of schedule and how a team does against that schedule. The basic formula is 25% team winning percentage (WP), 50% opponents' average winning percentage (OWP), and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage (OOWP). The Pomeroy ratings, a more complete rating system, take into account the metrics of the game in addition to strength of schedule.
3. Conference Record. Ultimately, this depends on what conference you’re in. If you have a winning record in a top 3 RPI ranking conference, you should be in. Last year, I didn’t include Florida State. This is a rarity due to a very poor non-conference schedule. Greater attention must be shown to this by bracket predictors, as larger conferences tend to use unbalanced schedules.
4. Big Wins. I look for signature victories, with a higher road/neutral weighting. Date of game is a factor, but I don’t completely devalue an impressive win just because a win was in November or early December.
5. The Eye Test. This is very subjective, especially when considering teams who I do not have an opportunity to watch. Basically, does the team look good when I watch them? Last year, Air Force failed the Eye Test.
6. Bad Losses. In addition to losses against bad teams (especially against RPI sub-150 teams), I take into account margin of defeat. If a team consistently loses big when it succumbs to defeat, I will pay less attention to the RPI ranking.
7. Injuries/Suspensions. A great example of this is the suspension of Sean Williams. With him, Boston College is a sure-fire tournament team. Without him, they’re currently either among the last four in or on the outside looking in.

Q: How do you rank the one-bid conferences?
A: The two major factors are the RPI/Pomeroy average plays a huge role and the Conference RPI ranking of the one-bid school. I also look for impressive road and neutral court victories.

Q: Do you allot bids by conference?
A: I try my best to include the best 34 at-large teams in the pool. With that said, there are biases that exist. If your team is in a RPI top 4 conference, then you should have no less than 4 bids. That’s more of a guideline than a rule.

Q: What is your biggest weakness in selecting teams?
A: I would say it’s selecting the next four out (AKA teams 70-73).

If you have any further questions that you think should be answered in the manifesto, feel free to e-mail me at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Saints Meteoric Rise

What a difference that a year makes. I know I’ve said that before with respect to other things. The statement especially holds true when considering the status of the New Orleans Saints. One year ago, due to the effects of Hurricane Katrina, the Saints were a displaced team without its home stadium and not knowing its future home. One year later, the Saints are just 60 minutes from playing in the Super Bowl.

How did this happen? To say that the Saints’ success has been a perfect storm is fairly accurate. PHSports looks at the decisions and happenings that have made the Saints who they are.

On January 18, 2006, the wheels started in other direction for the Saints, as the organization hired Sean Payton as its 14^th head coach.

On March 14, they began addressing a very leaky linebacking corps by signing Scott Fujita to a four-year contract.

Two days later, and hours after being passed over by the Miami Dolphins, the Saints signed quarterback Drew Brees to a six-year deal. This event was necessitated not only by the Dolphins opting for Daunte Culpepper, and but moreover, by Brees' freak shoulder injury in the 2005 Chargers finale.

On the evening of April 28, the night before the NFL Draft, ESPN reports that the Texans have agreed terms with defensive end Mario Williams. The next day, New Orleans selects Reggie Bush, who had received the highest draft grade in NFL history.

When interviewed after the pick, Sean Payton shares his excitement about the pick, saying that he can’t wait to start drawing up plays with both Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush in them. (Side note: many at home, including myself, are thinking this guy is either crazy or stupid).

A few hours later, the Saints trade the 34^th pick to Cleveland for the 43^rd pick (Roman Harper) and center Jeff Faine.

Early on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, Philadelphia trades up to grab the 99^th pick to select Max Jean-Gilles. In the process, the Saints receive the rights to defensive tackle Hollis Thomas and drafts Jahri Evans with the 108^th pick overall.

However, the largest coup takes place at the close of the draft as unheralded wide receiver/tight end Marques Colston is taken with the 252^nd pick out of Hofstra. He only had over 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns in 12 starts.

On May 12, the Saints signed punter Steve Weatherford. He was later cut and re-signed after Mitch Berger was placed on injured reserve.

In a surprise move buoyed by the early emergence of 2^nd round , the Saints terminated the contract of starting safety Dwight Smith.

On August 8, the Saints signed Nate Wayne to shore up linebacker woes only to waive him fifteen days later. After waiving Wayne, the Saints sent a conditional draft pick to Dallas for Scott Shanle.

As training camp progressed, Marques Colston impressed to the point that he was the undoubted number two receiver in New Orleans. His perseverance allowed the Saints to send former first-round pick Donte Stallworth to Philadelphia for linebacker Mark Simoneau and a conditional draft pick.

On September 2, Jermane Mayberry was placed on the injured reserve, paving the way for Jahri Evans to assume the starting guard position – a role he would not relinquish.

The Saints then proceeded to win assumingly at Cleveland and Green Bay. Outside of Louisiana residents and NFL Sunday Ticket subscribers, the Saints success remained a secret until the following Monday night game. After dominating the Atlanta Falcons for four quarters, the Saints went from being a “good story” to being just plain “good”.

Following the win versus the then-unstoppable rush attack of the Falcons, the Saints began receiving publicity for its play on the field and not for how the team [and its owner] is disconnected from the city of New Orleans like a year ago.

A year can make a world of difference, especially when considering two majors about professional football’s current climate. First, the league functions on the notion of a team (53 football > 25-40 baseball > 16-18 soccer > 12 basketball) more than any other sport of note. Second, the dearth of relative guaranteed money allows coaches and general managers leeway to gather a group of solid players at reasonable prices.

On that note, the Saints have taken advantage of football’s current climate and have stared adversity in the face in its rise to glory. Call it luck. Call it good fortune. Call it a bunch of guys who were overlooked. Call it a great coach who makes Charlie Weis look unoriginal. Even if they lose today, the Saints have become a great success story, not only because of their overall 12-5 record but also because many pieces are in place for seasons to come. If they defeat the Chicago Bears today, then they will have the opportunity in two weeks to become the most unlikely Super Bowl champion since Super Bowl III.

Football Picks [Bound To Go Wrong]
by Chris Clement

33-46. Nothing exciting. Last week? 2-2. Nothing exciting. 35-48. Well, you get the point. What I don't get is why I can never eclipse the .500 mark in the playoffs? Perhaps it's my inability to target key weaknesses, nagging injuries, or my lackadaisical approach to these picks? Either way, why stop the fun now? Let's roll!

NFC Championship Game
New Orleans @ Chicago [-2.5]
Just about everyone and their mother is jumping all over this spread and taking the Saints to win big. Slow that roll. As poor as Chicago's defense has looked in recent weeks, they will be at home and riding a rabid home crowd. This is a Saints team who has just a little experience in these games as Grossman and company do. Remember, Brees was 0-1 in the playoffs (love mentioning that Jets upset two years back) before this season. Joe Horn should be back, as of Thursday, and that is a huge boost for this big-play offense. In the end, Grossman will probably have to make the 3-4 throws he made last week for the Bears to contend in this game. While I wouldn't mind seeing Da Bears return to the Super Bowl, the Saints will make their first trip to the ultimate game with a convincing victory. They've put up 30 on the road in 6 of 8 games. Make it 7. New Orleans keeps the dream alive, perhaps ala Rams 99, and heads to Super Bowl XLI.
Pick: New Orleans [outright]

AFC Championship Game
New England @ Indianapolis [-2.5]
I would've bet everything I owned that the Pats would've won last week. Although I wouldn't have thought it would be primarily be due to the Chargers choking the game away (idiotic penalties, McCree's fumble, and Parker's sucktitude). LT didn't get enough screens and Gates was all but forgotten. Mike Vrabel isn't that good, folks. Ironically enough, for once, the Colts have went under the playoff radar thus far. Yet, despite Peyton's average play, the defense has rallied behind Bob Sanders (and a few other names, such as Rob Morris) to vault the Colts into their first home AFC Championship Game. This won't faze Brady and Bill though. What might though is a healthy Freeney, a roaming Sanders, and two wideouts trying to prove something in the playoffs (Harrison & Wayne...not Gaffney & Caldwell). While I never make any cash picking against the Pats, the Colts will win the game. Vinatieri's kicks usually are with a tied game, so 3 sounds safe for the cover. It would be all too storybook if Gostowski ended up having to hit a game-winner in the 40s, which he (not the incredible overrated Nate Karding) could easily do. Peyton doesn't want to be a newer version of Marino. He'd settle for far less accolades, which he'll get anyways, if he could get a real shot at that ring. If the Colts can't do it this year...well, we've said it and heard it before. Peyton finally conquers his white whale. Indianapolis reaches it's first Super Bowl, not of the Baltimore-variety of course. Mark it down folks, Colts/Saints. Let the points-line begin climbing!
Pick: Indianapolis [cover]

So this means one of these teams is in...and one is out. If you check my picks, that is. Either way, I'll be hating on the Pats and oddly pulling for both teams in the NFC.

Until next time...

Thursday's Quick Hitters

Plenty of quick hits. Before I delve into the bits and pieces of news that are affectionately referred to as "Quick Hits", I invite you to check out the "Comparing the Projected Seeds" page. Basically, it's all of the NCAA Tournament prognostication rolled into one page, which shows averages, outliers and biases of the Sultans of Selection.

So often, the mainstream media gets lost in the championship games. In this case, ESPN is stuck in the aftermath of the Pats-Chargers game, much like they were stuck up TO's anal cavity all season, dating back to the day he signed with Dallas. One of the next biggest stories is Sammy Sosa being invited to spring training by the Texas Rangers. Accountability needs to exist, even at the global sports leader.

Let's go to the college hardwood where the conference season is in full force. Out west, Air Force and New Mexico State had their double-digit winning streaks ended by teams with losing records. The Zags lost a conference game for the time in eons. Clemson is a realistic 17-2 after back-to-back losses at Maryland and versus North Carolina.

Staying in the ACC, the most shocking news is undoubtedly Boston College's dismissal of shot-blocking sensation Sean Williams and Akida McLain. Multiple sources report that both players had been suspended twice before this final discretionary action. The ramifications are steep for BC, who must be once again considered a bubble team, while they are even steeper for the troubled Williams who is a NBA prospect.

From one shot blocker to the next, Dikembe Mutombo is tired of the jokes about his age coming from commentators. The 40-year old Mutombo plans to seek out a solution during the All-Star break by speaking with Commissioner David Stern.

And finally, to the epicenter of American sports media - the pigskin. The Chargers use their collective brain and decide to bring back Marty Schottenheimer, who reportedly refused a one-year extension - a common practice used by management to avoid the stigma within the locker room of a lame-duck coach. I laud this decision because there's no one better for the job right now moving forward. No one.

In less good news, Michael Vick, who was once the darling of the NFL, is starting to see it all crumble. This morning, TSA screeners at Miami International Airport called police after Vick left a bottle with a secret compartment that smelled of marijuana. Police are testing the substance found within the compartment. Check out the incident report here.

Startling Statistic of the Night: Notre Dame gives up 102 to Villanova. This definitely caught my eye because Villanova no longer has Foye, Ray, or Lowry.

2006 NFL Rookie Report

by Armin Mohajeri

I will go on record and say that this was one of the strongest drafts of the free agent era. From Mario Williams all the way down to Marques Colston, this draft class offered a large amount of rookie contributions to their respective teams. I will break the 2006 Draft Class down to three aspects: 1) Top 10 Offensive & Defensive Rookies; 2) Top 3 Draft Classes by Team; 3) The PHSports All-Rookie Team

Top 10 Offensive Rookies:
1) QB Vince Young, Titans
2) WR Marques Colston, Saints
3) RB Maurice Drew-Jones, Jaguars
4) OT Marcus McNeill, Chargers
5) RB Joseph Addai, Colts
6) QB Matt Leinart, Cardinals
7) RB Reggie Bush, Saints
8) KR/PR Devin Hester, Bears
9) RB Laurence Maroney, Patriots
10) RB Jerrious Norwood, Falcons

Top 10 Defensive Rookies:
1) MLB DeMeco Ryans, Texans
2) OLB AJ Hawk, Packers
3) DE Mark Anderson, Bears
4) OLB Kamerion Wimbley, Browns
5) SS Donte Whitner, Bills
6) OLB Ernie Sims, Lions
7) DE Tamba Hali, Chiefs
8) FS Dawan Landry, Ravens
9) CB Richard Marshall, Panthers
10) OLB Thomas Howard, Raiders

Top 3 Rookie Squads (By Team):
1) Saints: WR Marques Colston, RB Reggie Bush, G Jahri Evans, SS Roman Harper, P Steve Weatherford
2) Jets: T D’Brickshaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, RB Leon Washington, S Eric Smith, CB Drew Coleman, WR/QB Brad Smith
3) Packers: LB AJ Hawk, WR Greg Jennings, G Daryn Colledge, G Jason Spitz, T Tony Moll, P Jon Ryan

2006 PHSports NFL All-Rookie Team:
QB: Vince Young, Titans – No other rookie had a bigger impact to his team than Vince Young. While Leinart had the higher QB rating (71.7 vs. 66.7), Young brought two aspects to the table the Leinart could not. First, there is the scrambling aspect. Young rushed for 552 yards and 7 TDs, making him a dangerous weapon on the ground that defenses had to include in their gameplan. Second, and most importantly, Young became the leader of the Titans franchise in his rookie year. He proved to be a winner, taking a franchise that looked to be headed towards a top 3 pick in the 2007 draft, and at times, single-handedly winning games for the team. He finished with 2,199 passing yards, 12 TDs and 13 INTs. (Backup: Matt Leinart, Cardinals)

RB: Maurice Drew-Jones, Jaguars & Joseph Addai, Colts – Maurice Drew-Jones was probably the lone bright spot on the Jags offense. He finished the season with 943 rushing yards at a 5.7 yards per carry average with 13 TDs. He also added 46 catches for 436 yards and 2 TDs. Joseph Addai contributed 1,095 rushing yards at a 5 yards per carry average with 7 TDs along with 40 receptions for 325 yards and 1 TD. Both are smaller, squattier backs who played bigger than they are. (Backups: Reggie Bush, Saints; Laurence Maroney, Patriots; Jerrious Norwood, Falcons)

WR: Marques Colston, Saints & Santonio Holmes, Steelers – In an overall weak year for wide receivers, the top performer came from the unlikeliest place -- only a handful of picks from being Mr. Irrelevant. Marques Colston came onto the scene and blew up to the tune of 70 catches for 1,038 yards and 8 TDs. He also missed some time due to injury. Santonio Holmes racked up 49 catches for 824 yards and 2 TDs. (Backups: Greg Jennings, Packers; Hank Baskett, Eagles)

TE: Owen Daniels, Texans – The draft looked strong at the tight end position before the season. Upon finishing, Owen Daniels had the best season, in what was a mediocre season for the position. With 34 receptions for 352 yards and 5 TDs, Daniels led all rookie tight ends in all three categories. (Backup: Tony Scheffler, Broncos)

C: Nick Mangold, Jets – Mangold started from day one, and we all saw the rewards reaped by Chad Pennington. Mangold proved that he will be a mainstay for years to come. (Backup: None)

G: Davin Joseph, Buccaneers & Jahri Evans, Saints – Joseph proved his value as a 1^st round draft pick with a solid year, teaming up with Dan Beunning to possibly be the best young guard tandem in the NFL. Jahri Evans was plugged into the Saints starting O-Line from the beginning, and paved the way for Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. (Backup: Daryn Colledge, Packers)

T: Marcus McNeill, Chargers & Ryan O’Callaghan, Patriots – Marcus McNeill has drawn praise from countless analysts. Great Blue North Draft Report had him rated as the #1 offensive rookie in 2006. He teamed up with Kris Dielman to form one of the best left sides of the offensive line in the league. League MVP LaDainian Tomlinson found comfort running off the left side. If it wasn’t for Marques Colston and Mark Anderson, O’Callaghan would be considered the steal of the draft. He played like a top right tackle in the league. (Backups: D’Brickshaw Ferguson, Jets; Andrew Whitworth, Bengals)

DT: Haloti Ngata, Ravens & Domato Peko, Bengals – Haloti Ngata doesn’t show a lot of stats, but his value is seen in the performers surrounding him. The Ravens had the #1 defense in the league, and it was due in no small part to Ngata, who plugged the middle and proved to be immovable all season. Domato Peko will be a long time rotational starter for the Bengals, if not a full-time starter. He had 43 tackles with 2.5 sacks. (Backups: Kedric Golston, Redskins; Barry Cofield, Giants)

DE: Mark Anderson, Bears & Kamerion Wimbley, Browns – Mark Anderson finished the season with 12 sacks. However, the most impressive part of that was that he was a situational pass rusher, playing a limited number of downs. He made the most of his opportunities. He was also able to add value to an already strong defense. Kamerion Wimbley played OLB in the 3-4, however he played more of a DE role in that defense. He notched 11 sacks on the season, and proved to be a mainstay of Crennel’s defense in Cleveland. (Backups: Tamba Hali, Chiefs; Elvis Dumervil, Broncos)

MLB: DeMeco Ryans, Texans – Ryans had the biggest impact of any rookie outside of Vince Young. Not only did he finish 2^nd in the league in tackles with 155, he was the unquestioned leader and captain of the Texans defense. He made all of the defensive calls. For his efforts, he was named Defensive Rookie of the Year. (Backup: D’Qwell Jackson, Browns)

OLB: AJ Hawk, Packers & Ernie Sims, Lions – AJ Hawk proved to be a key cog in the rebuilding of the Packers defense. He finished with 121 tackles, 5 sacks and 2 INTs. He had the 2^nd most impact by a defensive rookie on his team (behind Ryans). Ernie Sims put his small frame to great use for the Lions, notching 125 tackles. One of the lone bright spots for the Detroit front seven, he could be one of two players that doesn’t get shuffled around by the Lions this offseason. (Backups: Thomas Howard, Raiders; Clint Ingram, Jaguars)

CB: Richard Marshall, Panthers & Johnathan Joseph, Bengals – Richard Marshall was thrust into the starting position due to injuries. He responded by making 83 tackles, 3 INTs (one TD) and 12 pass breakups. Johnathan Joseph proved to be a valuable cover corner, chipping in 20 pass breakups. (Backups: Cedric Griffin, Vikings; Tye Hill, Rams)

S: Donte Whitner, Bills & Dawan Landry, Ravens – Whitner, the surprise pick of the 1^st round, had a fine season, finishing with 105 tackles and 4 pass breakups. Dawan Landry led all rookies in INTs with 5. He also chipped in 69 tackles for the #1 defense in the league. (Backups: Antoine Bethea, Colts; Danieal Manning, Bears)

Special Teams: KR/PR Devin Hester, Bears – Devin Hester made a case this year that Special Teams players must be considered in Rookie of the Year talk. He returned 6 kicks for TDs, and a missed field goal for 100+ yards and the score. He nearly single-handedly beat the Cardinals.

Yes, I know. Sunday's games were Monday's news. But I decided to have a life on Monday. Well, not really. I caught up with some friends for a super lunch at Cici's Pizza, buying the US version of The Office - Season 2, and being forced to watch the Project Greenlight flick "Feast" as a result of losing badly in Madden 2007. Onto the games ...

First, Chicago needed the extra session to overcome the hapless Seahawks. The Bears showed me nothing, except for some weakness up the middle on defense and signs of life in the vertical passing game. Rex Grossman didn't throw the game away, which I suppose is cause for joy in the Windy City. Yet, Shaun Alexander rushed for over 100 yards. All in all, the better team won, but don't let people tell you that Chicago dethroned the NFC Champs. Well, they did, but this is not your 2005 Seattle team despite much of the core being physically present.

Secondly, the Patriots did it. They went into San Diego and did exactly what Clement said they would do. This game was a gambler's dream. I must admit, I only watched about 60% of the game, but I don't see how Marty Schottenheimer lost that game. Drayton Florence gave the Patsies a first down on a personal foul headbutt after a third-down sack of Tom Brady. Marlon McCree intercepted a pass on 4th down when he could have knocked it down and proceeded to have it stripped by Troy Brown. These two mistakes led to 11 points. I don't care who you're playing. If you spot the opposition a double-digit figure in points via bonehead plays, put one in the loss column.

Of course, this has no bearing on Schottenheimer's job status, as him and GM A.J. Smith have a non-existent love affair (i.e. they don't talk). I'm guessing that the Spanos family will not extend the head coach's contract, leading to a termination with one year left on the contract. I'm also guessing that Marty's replacement will be expected to win immediately in the playoffs.

As for Tomlinson's post-game comments, I agree in part. Don't stand on someone's logo and imitate the "Lights Out" dance despite the obvious irony. And being the Patriots, I'm sure they taunted the opposition. They are no choir boys, as they are made out to by the Foxboro team of Simms and Nantz. If I'm not mistaken, who shoved a photographer last week? Klass.

Onto the championship games ... I'm not giving any predictions. If I was forced to make an uneducated conjecture, I'd go with the roadies to win outright and then the Patsies taking the Lombardi trophy (my preseason pick). Nevertheless, it's early, as the middle of the week is being dominated by the coaching carousel.

Fun Stat of the Day: San Diego's record vs. teams who made the playoffs this season (2-3)

Tomorrow, be on the lookout for the End of Season Rookie Report by Armin Mohajeri.

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 2.0

In this latest edition of the NCAA Tournament Projections, Wisconsin enters the world of the one seeds, joining UCLA, Florida, and UNC – who lost to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Kansas is quietly getting its feet on the ground while Oregon is making waves out west, defeating UCLA and then winning at Arizona.

In the world of the mid-majors, Butler loses a conference game, allowing the way for Wright State to take the automatic bid. Gonzaga’s trip home after the drubbing at the hands of Virginia marks some time to just stay on the west coast. The Colonial Athletic Association is now a four-horse race, with Drexel dropping two games in three days.

Meanwhile, the Pac-10 continues to impress me, padding its external validity (80.4 win %) with internal validity (Oregon winning at Arizona, Washington State winning at USC, and so on). In other news, Stanford replaces a floundering Washington team as the conference’s sixth entry.

Seed	East	South	Midwest	West
1	UNC	Florida	Wisconsin	UCLA
2	Pittsburgh	Arizona	Oregon	Kansas
3	Alabama	Air Force	Texas A&M	Ohio St.
4	Washington St.	Oklahoma St.	Kentucky	Duke
5	Southern Illinois	Indiana	Clemson	Nevada
6	USC	Memphis	Butler	Missouri St.
7	Boston College	Notre Dame	Creighton	Tennessee
8	Texas	Virginia Tech	Marquette	LSU
9	Michigan St.	Northern Iowa	Gonzaga	Syracuse
10	Texas Tech	Davidson	Arkansas	UNLV
11	Western Kentucky	Maryland	Georgia Tech	Stanford
12	Virginia Commonwealth	Winthrop	Drexel	Massachusetts
13	Pennsylvania	Holy Cross	Appalachian St.	New Mexico St.
14	Vermont	Siena	Toledo	Idaho St.
15	Delaware St.	Stephen F. Austin	Wright St.	Oral Roberts
16	Belmont	Jackson St. or Sacred Heart	Samford	Cal St. Fullerton

Last Four In: Maryland, Drexel, New Mexico St., Appalachian St.
Last Four Out: Old Dominion, West Virginia, Xavier, Kansas St.
Next Four Out: Purdue, Georgetown, Wichita St., Michigan

Summary
ACC: 7
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
Big East: 4
Big Ten: 4
Missouri Valley: 4
Colonial: 2
Horizon: 2
Mountain West: 2
Southern: 2
Western Athletic: 2