Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Making the NFL Pro Bowl Selections
Part I: AFC Pro Bowl Selections
by Chris Clement

I won’t pretend to believe I have a better nose for spotting a Pro Bowl team than other NFL fans, coaches, or players.

Or will I???

That’s right. I’ve decided to post something non-picks oriented for the first time on this blog. It’s my 2006 Pro Bowl rosters. I’ll try and explain as best I can. I have biases, but not nearly as much as most other fans, coaches, and players have, especially because I’ve seen far more games than most.

Let’s quit the jibber-jabber. Roll on!

AFC Roster

QB: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis [Starter]
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see why Peyton should be the starter for the AFC squad. 26 TDs to only 9 INTS [toss in 3 “rushing” TDs too). He clearly outdueled Palmer and will finish 3rd in the MVP vote.

QB: Tom Brady, New England
Look what he’s working with. The team still has a 10-4 record and it’s due in most part to Brady. Even sans-Branch, I’ll give him the nod over Palmer, Rivers and McNair.

QB: Steve McNair, Baltimore
Here we go. 13 TDs and 9 INTs [1 rushing TD] aren’t the type of numbers that scream Pro Bowl. However, an 11-3 record is. You can’t exclaim any QB could live with this defense. What I would exclaim is how much more confident the defense is with McNair at the controls. Time and time again, Ray Lewis has been quoted as saying they can take more chances and go after more big plays with McNair ready to support them with 20+ points. As a steadying factor on a team who might be 7-9 with Boller, McNair is my final Pro Bowl selection.

“Snubs”: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati & Philip Rivers, San Diego
The sexy QB stats favor Palmer here [24 TDs, 11 INTs], but the Bengals have been shaky at best. He looked terrible against Indy too, left tackle struggles or not. Here’s the most telling stat for Palmer, 14 fumbles and 7 lost. That’s too many, folks. Rivers [18 TDs, 8 INTs] has rode stud teammates LT and Gates. While it’s true he has been uber-impressive in his first season as a starter, this team would arguably be better with Brees still in control. While he’s having an excellent year, he would not be nearly as successful in place of Brady or McNair.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego [Starter]
It almost seems a waste of time to debate this one. NFL Network showed each of his TDs, from start to finish on each play, and it could’ve nearly taken up the entire 30-minute block. He has claimed the MVP award from Brees (who needed 5,000 yds to combat what should be 35 TDs from LT2].

RB: Larry Johnson, Kansas City
No bust or slump here, fantasy or NFL-based. The Chiefs have rode their star (to think, a late 1st round pick after a 2,000 yard season at Penn State) and remained in the playoff hunt until recent weeks (a crippling loss at Cleveland rings truest). 13 TDs and over 100 yards per game (ypg) make him one heck of a reserve.

RB: Willie Parker, Pittsburgh
You can’t make nearly enough of a case against him as he can for himself. Two 200-yard games is fun, but what really draws me to his selection is the inability for Big Ben to show any consistency of late (outside of throwing multiple picks a game]. He may see 1500 yds and possibly 15 TDs. That contract extension is looking like a steal right now.

“Snubs”: None
Travis Henry would get the nod over Taylor, Dillon, and even Rudi in my book. Well, perhaps not Rudi. While the Bengals don’t feature him enough, I see him as the guy who might put up the 1200 yard and 12 TD season that isn’t mind-blowing.

FB: Lorenzo Neal, San Diego
Don’t tell me he’s underrated or underappreciated. The networks, specifically CBS, love this guy and deservedly so. He’s an easy selection this year (as often as a FB is with a top RB behind him).

“Snubs”: None at all.

WR: Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis [Starter]
Steady as he goes. Even before his brilliant MNF 3-TD night, Harrison had piled up impressive numbers [now at 82 catches, 1180 yds, 9 TDs]. He is a must-insert as a starter this year, as most years.

WR: Chad Johnson, Cincinnati [Starter]
Even with Housh [a potential “snub” gobbling up possession catches, CJ is the best big play wideout east of Torry Holt. As usual, he’s leading the league in yards [1284] and had two monster games that kept the Bengals afloat [even in a loss]. While 7 TDs is nice, I’m still waiting for his 15-TD year, even with Housh/Henry stealing redzone and deepball looks.

WR: Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
I’ve been a little tough on him, as some games he’s non-existent. But you can’t dog a guy with these numbers [77 catches, 1213 yds, and 9 TDs]. Especially since he’s a #2.

WR: Laveranues Coles, New York
Time for a hometown pick, right? Nope. 2nd in catches [87] alongside 1,065 yds and 6 TDs. The guy is as beaten and bruised as anyone [a weekly stable on the injured list] and has been named Team MVP and one of the toughest guys to play the game in recent years [multiple leg and heel problems]. Without a prolific #2 like most [although Cotchery has improved mightily], he lacks a strong-armed QB and the redzone looks most see [Cotchery and Baker see the majority of those]. It’s time to reward talented players on good teams.

“Snubs”: Andre Johnson, Houston
AJ…I’m sorry. I have to punish you for your team. And how useless you’ve been the last five weeks [32 catches, 335 yds, 1 TD]. Hollow stuff, especially with a Texans team that puts up a TON of garbage yards. 1 catch for 9 yards against the Raiders is just sad. Housh isn’t a snub.

TE: Antonio Gates, San Diego [Starter]
Another easy selection for the Chargers. Despite being an amazing redzone target, you know they have to give it to LT whenever they can. His blocking has really improved [why K2 won’t get a nod from me], and his 12.4 yd average looks great next to 8 TDs. Pencil this guy in.

TE: Todd Heap, Baltimore
I see the Ravens far too often. While Gonzo has rebounded from a slow start, I like what Heap does more. He is blocking extremely well and stretches the field as his team’s best target (even over Derrick Mason). Gonzo can be better, Heap has been at his best. Process of elimination has me tabbing Heap in the Pro Bowl over Gonzo.

“Snubs”: Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City & Kellen Winslow Jr., Cleveland
Props to both. K2 doesn’t block very well and can disappear for entire games at times. Gonzo is just slightly below Heap in my book, who does more with less these days.

T: Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore & Marcus McNeil, San Diego & Tarik Glenn, Indianapolis
Not sure how I squeezed out Willie Anderson, but I did. I suppose a lot of Carson’s fumbles have other reasons, but I expect an anchor to stand out more. McNeil has been the 2nd best rookie OL (Mangold has to do tons more for the Jets as a center on a young line] while Ogden has avoided Freeney embarrassing him enough to remain a top OL in all of football.

G: Brian Waters, Kansas City & Chris Naeole, Jacksonville [Starters] Alan Faneca
Props to Pete Prisco, for once, of CBS Sportsline for tabbing Naeole as a top snub. He is the most talented player on a Jags team that could spot two 1,000 yard rushers (and a nimble Garrard). Shield made it due to reputation, but at least Waters jumped in while Faneca was just another name spot in my opinion, who was close with several others.

C: Nick Hardwick, San Diego [Starter] Nick Mangold, New York
Jeff Saturday is having a great year. Yet, the Colts rush game never plays to him and 3-4s eat him alive in every big game. Not to mention, I’ve spotted more than a few penalties on him with downfield blocking. Hardwick has been a monster (downright dominating DTs in run blocking) and Mangold has been a force at rookie on a team with a lot of youth and not one solid runner. Nevertheless, he is great at spotting blitzes and the Jets rush very well inside the 5 behind him.

There’s the offense. Let’s move to the D.

DE: Jason Taylor, Miami & Aaron Schobel, Buffalo [Starters] Derrick Burgess, Oakland
Taylor is a no brainer, plain and simple. He is right there with Champ Bailey for Defensive Player of the Year. Each will have TV audiences watching them this weekend. Guess who I hope does worse? As for Schobel, he’s been working towards this for years. His 13.5 sacks have been quite impressive, especially since Pat Williams departed to Minnesota this season. Burgess, who is having another strong season (alongside Warren Sapp in case you didn’t know), is a strong alternate as Freeney can’t stay healthy enough to earn a selection.

DT: Richard Seymour, New England & Jamal Williams, San Diego [Starters] Casey Hampton
I hate agreeing for a second straight category, but it makes too much sense. Seymour is the most talented and valuable interior lineman in football and Williams may be the highest-rising star at the position. As for Hampton, I’m stumped to name anyone better. Wait, I can. Warren Sapp. Check my selection. I won’t even edit it the easy way. Warren Sapp has 8 sacks (leading DTs) and is the anchor of a surprisingly good Raiders defense.

Insert as reserve for Hampton: Warren Sapp, Oakland

ILB: Al Wilson, Denver [Starter] & DeMeco Ryans, Houston
Al Wilson is as good an athlete as this position is likely to see over the next few years. He has blazing speed and hits incredibly well. While his D has taken a bit of a step back, he has allowed his interior lineman a lot of leeway with some major tackles. Ryans, my defensive rookie of the year, has been an all-out tackling machine on a team that can’t tackle. He has taken away a lot of the heat from “Not so Super” Mario on his way to an impressive debut for the lowly Texans.

“Snubs”: Zack Thomas, Miami & Ray Lewis, Baltimore
Tackles aren’t enough for me. I honestly wonder if a guy like Vilma (so undersized in his 3-4 role, as Thomas is) has done as much as Taylor has. London Fletcher-Baker (when did this idiotic Baker get inserted anyways?) is just as deserving as Thomas is. DeMeco sneaks in over my boy Ray Lewis, who is back as being one of the truly elite.

OLB: Adalius Thomas, Baltimore & Shawne Merriman, San Diego [Starters] Bart Scott, Baltimore
As if we didn’t already have enough love for the Ravens linebackers, here’s two more. Scott is an easier selection than Suggs, far more sturdy with more tackles and 2 INTs. Although trailing in forced fumbles, Suggs has far less responsibility on his side of the 3-4 than Scott. While I hate Merriman (mainly for cheating with ‘roids, shocker it was), he is an easy selection and with those four games probably a runner-up defensive player of the year. Adalius is a force, even with a rather bland ESPN the Magazine cover, and has changed Baltimore’s defense even more than Ed Reed was able to years back. Sorry to not be able to give more love to Keith Bulluck.

CB: Champ Bailey, Denver & Rasheen Mathis, Jacksonville [Starters} Nnamdi Asomugha
I was forced to watch Houston/Oakland with a Raiders fan, and saw Nnamdi (how do you even begin to pronounce that?) gobble up Moulds and AJ without any help over the top. As for the starters, Mathis lived up to his deal with a solid season (especially v. CJ) and Champ is arguably the best corner since Deion. Asante Samuel is a close fourth followed by Chris McAllister and Pacman Jones [if only for the past 5 weeks]. Anyone who voted for Ty Law should be stripped of their votes.

S: Kerry Rhodes & Ed Reed [Starters] Chris Hope, Tennessee
Lynch is a crackpipe decision in the AFC and Polamalu, outside of the hair pull, didn’t make nearly as many big plays as people label him with this season. Reed has been strong, yet not stellar. Hope has to make a lot of tackles, especially if Bulluck can’t make them all, and has done well in coverage with young cast mates back there. As for Rhodes, he may be the biggest snub of the AFC. For safeties, the numbers don’t lie: 4 sacks [1st], 3 forced fumbles [t-1st], 71 tackles [3rd], and 4 INTs are just sick for a safety, especially on a defense that just shifted into the 3-4 and is undermanned. What a crying shame he wasn’t a starter, no less a reserve. Shame on the AFC here. Shame on hacks like Skip Bayless, Sean Salisbury, and Peter King for not noting this guy’s amazing year. SHAME.

I’m going to leave the special teams as is. I won’t even explain them. The numbers say plenty and I couldn’t be happier with the selections this year.

K: Nate Kaeding, San Diego
P: Brian Moorman, Buffalo
KR: Justin Miller, New York
ST: Kassim Osgood, San Diego

Wow. That’s a mouthful to say the least. NFC tomorrow hopefully. Enjoy the day.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

My responses, position by position:

QB: I agree w/ Manning/Brady. Regarding McNair ... you're on crack. The Ravens made Boller look like a respectable QB this past Sunday. If McNair really was the glue for the team, then they would've unravelled entirely on Sunday. I think Rivers gets the nod here. Palmer's numbers might be better, but his team should be better than 8-6, and the QB shoulders that blame.

RB: I don't see how you dont even mention Maurice Jones-Drew. Yes, his amazingness has been all over the field, not just at the RB position. But I think he totally gets the nod here. The man is electric anywhere you put him. He gets in over Parker by a mile.

FB: Neal is perfect.

WR: The only toss up in my eyes is the 4th spot between Coles and Houshmandzadeh. TJ has stepped it up this year, so much so that Chad felt the heat early on (hence his TO-like rantings).

TE: agree fully.

T: I'd take out Ogden and put in Anderson. But it'd be close

G: Eh...whatever,

C: to me, it's a tossup between Mangold and Saturday. But I like rookies as much as Paymon likes men, so let's stick with Mangold.

I dont feel like doing the defense now...maybe later.

Paymon said...

Child-like banter from Sum ... cute.

I'd put Rivers over McNair at QB as well. I will be the first to shun any Palmer/Aikman comparisons.

Jones-Drew over Parker? This is beyond hyperbole even for Sum. 1331 yards rushing, 14 TD (3 rec), a 4.6 average, with 3 fumbles lost.

Jones-Drew has a killer average of 5.7 but less attempts which means his legs are fresher. 764 yards are not bad at all considering he's a rookie and gets less carries than Fred Taylor. His ability to be a gamebreaker (13 TD) and less fumbles (1 lost) make him formidable; however, you cannot let a non-every down back with those stats make the AFC Pro Bowl team given the quality at that position.