Monday, October 16, 2006

College Football's Top 8 Teams -- Version 2.0

Two weeks of great football have passed and teams continue to develop their identities as we move to the home stretch of the college football regular season. In that period of time, the SEC has proven to be the most balanced conference while the USC Trojans have had two late scares at home to unranked Washington and Arizona St.

Meanwhile, the BCS rankings came out yesterday and demonstrated the computer rankings' infatuation with USC -- likely buoyed by an opening game win at Arkansas. Like 2 weeks ago, Matt Carroll (mcarroll@dewberry.com) provides insight and reasoning behind his top 8.

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1) Ohio State: Still above the rest. No problems handling their games the last two weeks. The defense continues to get better as they get more game experience. There are no questions on the offensive side of the ball. They have made it through the first half of their schedule and should now coast to the Michigan game on Nov. 18th

2) Michigan: Got a big win in Happy Valley to keep their national championship hopes alive, and did so without their star WR Mario Manningham. The offense showed depth with WRs Adrian Arrington and Steve Breaston getting 83 and 79 yards receiving, respectively, and RB Mike Hart's 6th 100-yard rushing game this season against a stout PSU defense. But it is the Michigan D that proved they can control a game, with their front 7 making a strong case as the best in the nation with 7 sacks, also knocking out PSU's first- and second-string QBs.

3) Louisville: I think this is the team that ends up undefeated and on the outside of the BCS bubble. Their last two wins have been less than convincing, but the 2nd half of their game against Middle Tenn. St. shows how good they can be. They have three tough games in a row coming up, so we will find out for ourselves how great this team really is. WR Mario Urrutia (fun last name to say) is emerging as a great scoring weapon and should become even more of a threat as QB Brian Brohm works his way back.

4) Florida: This is a great team on offense and defense. A two-QB system that is actually working (for now), and a good RB in Wynn. LSU laid an egg against this team in The Swamp, but Florida took advantage of those mistakes to score a good win. They played very well against Auburn and dominated for the most part, but were unable to recover from the momentum swing off of the blocked punt. As I said previously, this is the toughest schedule in the country, so if they can win out -- as they should -- this one-loss team will be the best in the land.

5) Auburn: How could a team that just beat Florida be ranked below them? Because they are not as good as Florida is. They had a great win on Saturday, but last Saturday they were absolutely dominated by Arkansas. Stat of the week: 3 -- the number of pass attempts for Arkansas in the 2nd half. And only 10 pass attempts total. That is the definition of smashmouth football. This was after they squeaked by an inferior South Carolina team that went down to the last play of the game. My last post said Auburn could be in trouble if they were losing late because they don't have the passing attack and that showed against Arkansas.

6) Cal: This team has looked phenomenal after Week 1. Just like Arkansas, a completely different team from the first game of the season. They have dominated every opponent since. Impressive wins against Oregon and Arizona State. They had no problem beating ASU and WSU, which USC did. Nate Longshore is playing fabulous, and DeSean Jackson is a one of the best WRs in the nation that deserves more attention than he is getting.

7) USC: This team has not played like a top 5 team, in my opinion. Three straight games that have all gone down to the wire against three unranked teams, with two of them at home. The team has not lost, but has looked quite vulnerable. Their defense is not causing turnovers which has many a Trojan fan worried. They have two games to get their act together before they play Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame. Lucky for them -- they are all at home.

8) WVU: The offense is phemonenal and the spread attack is incredibly hard to defend. Pat White had a field day against Syracuse. But the defense continues to disappoint. There were several plays that they gave up to Syracuse which made them look pathetic, most notably a couple of deep balls against the secondary that came off of desperation throws from Perry Patterson. It will be interesting to see what a Louisville offense can do to them.

On the Radar: Texas, Tennesee, Notre Dame
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Key Games in the Next 2 Weeks
Oct. 21:
#5 Texas @ #17 Nebraska
#13 Georgia Tech @ #12 Clemson
#6 Louisville @ Syracuse

Oct. 28:
Georgia v. #9 Florida
#7 Tennessee @ South Carolina

3 comments:

Paymon said...

I agree with 1 and 2, but not much after that. Louisville is hardly a top 8 team and there's no way they're better than Florida and Auburn at this point.

Their best effort this season is against a Miami team in name, who are most noted this season for stinking and being in a major fight with Florida Int'l.

Anonymous said...

Two Big East teams???? And one in the top 4??? That's crazy.

Fuego said...

This is not the Big East that many people perceived (and still perceive) it to be. Many of the most intriguing national matchups for the rest of this season reside in the Big East (WVU at Louisville, Louisville at Rutgers, WVU at Pittsburgh - The Backyard Brawl, Rutgers at WVU).

Rutgers is a team that would most likely be in the top 10, and definitely should be in the top 15, if it weren't for those pesky preseason rankings. For all the Heisman talk that Steve Slaton gets, he is probably the 2nd best RB in his own conference (hello there Ray Rice). The Big East is no longer the pit of the Power 6 conferences and they can make a strong argument for being in the top 4.

I do have Louisville high, perhaps too high, I know that. This team had two close games of late, which makes them look bad when you simply look at the scoreboard, but this is mostly due to good management by Bobby Petrino. Louisville could have won these games handily if they stuck with Cantwell, but they were preparing Brohm for the big WVU. Now he has two games under his belt, and a bye week, before playing against WVU in one of the most anticipated college football matches of the year. Worst case scenario is that Brohm struggles, and then you have the proven backup (and best in NCAA) to step right in. I like WR Urrutia to have some big plays in this one against a weak pass defense.

USC definitely has top 3 talent, they just aren't playing like it. Now they have to prove that talent against Cal and ND. Speaking of which, Cal and ND, along with Texas and Tennessee all had close games, and I mean "lose on one play" close. Texas was the only one playing an opponent worthy of a game anywhere near that close. And it is no secret how close USC's last three games have been to inferior opponents.

This speaks to the fact that there are very few dominant teams in this year's college football season, instead, many good teams with individual weaknesses. Watching the tape, the top 4 Big East teams could run with the top 4 of any other conference.